JusRelax
Active Member
Random question - Is "earnings hopping" a thing? For example, are there people that would buy AAPL for today's earnings, and then sell tomorrow to get into TSLA's earnings?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Random question - Is "earnings hopping" a thing? For example, are there people that would buy AAPL for today's earnings, and then sell tomorrow to get into TSLA's earnings?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Oh yes, Eeyore's data sources are most likely FINRA / publicly available, so they work fine for most publicly traded companies which aren't under siege by the
But Eeyore has no visibility into trading done by MMs, which has averaged 54% of TSLA's volume over the past several years. No doubt his model doesn't work, his curves don't fit, and his commercial interest is to shut up about his methodology problems.
The sad part is, Eeyore's so captured by that same system that he won't even perform a simple statistical 'goodness-of-fit' test to show that his TSLA short interest predictions don't fall inside the expected range of errors. He's even claimed that 'within 5% is pretty good'...
Yeah, that's not so good, Eeyore. But seeing the wide gap between Eeyore's numbers and the (2-wk delayed) NASDAQ short interest quantifies exactly how much manipulation is being conducted by MMs.
Ie: Take NASDAQ - Eeyore = Shorting Activity
Cheers!
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I know it's hard but it's best not to argue with dumb people. What's that bit about playing chess with a pigeon?
That's so coincidental you guys bring him up, as just an hour ago, I happen to have watched the upcoming superbowl commerical by Kia on their new sedan featuring him among other celebs, and showing the car self-parking (how ironic, it is that feature being highlighted in the commercial, given also what you stated about him and Tesla)...
It happened again. I got sucked back into a debate with Tesla curmudgeons. Today's rant follows...
Your post is full of misinformation.
"Yes they have a 35,000 vehicle but this has too problems. First it is a striped down model and does not have the features that people like."
* The $35,000 Tesla Model 3 is not "stripped down." Of course people always want more features - you get what you pay for.
Here's what you get for $35,000 Model 3:
- 220 miles of range for $100,000 less than the 201 mile range Porsche Taycan
- 0-60 in 5.6 seconds
- 5 star safety rating
- access to the Tesla Supercharger network
- free over the air software and firmware updates
- 8 year/100,000 mile warranty on the battery and drive unit.
- same quality interior as long-range Model 3. It's basically just software limited.
"Up till now you could not buy one"
* The $35,000 Tesla Model 3 has been available for almost a year: $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Available Now
"I know two people that have deposits on vehicles in the $40,000 ~ $45,000 range. one for 7 months Neither has received a VIN yet."
* This is extremely unusual and hard to believe. Wait times for all Tesla models in the US are typically 7-8 weeks. Wait times have increased to 10 weeks recently due to high demand. Someone who has waited over seven months has a problem with their order and should call customer service and have their case elevated to a supervisor.
"Tesla has had made a profit recently and had a positive cash flow on a NON GAAP basis. All that really counts is what happens when GAAP rules are followed. The fact that they have yet to show and positive cash flow or profits so far and have accumulated 13.34 B of long term debt will be a real problem as some of the gloss wears off and they are judged like other companies"
*Tesla reported a GAAP profit in Q3 2019. https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4
"$143M GAAP net income; $342M non-GAAP net income ex-SBC" Tesla will report a Q4 2019 profit tomorrow. There is no doubt about it.
For many reasons which I have previously enumerated, Tesla will show a full year profit in 2020. All analysts polled by Yahoo finance (27/27) forecast Tesla to have net positive earnings of $2.9B for 2020. If you expect Tesla to post a loss for 2020, I'd like to know what your assumptions are.
Please do not fall into the bear trap of thinking "Tesla loses money on every car they make." Their automotive gross margins are over %20 and improving. They have scaled exponentially for years and that is capitol intensive.
Tesla will have no problem servicing their debt going forward with projected strong free cash flow and profitability. Moreover, almost $4B of their debt is convertible to stock at above ~ $400/share in 2021-2022. That's looking good right about now, and would be a small dilution of the stock.
Tesla is not being judged for its ample shine and pizzazz by the market, but by its clear and sustained technology leadership in EV and EV software and #1 share of the global EV market. Unlike your perception, the big OEMs have left the EV market wide open for Tesla. Tesla is also moving towards generating high-margin revenue through optional software upgrades. Let me give you just one example.. Last December, Tesla offered an over-the-air software update to certain types of Model 3s that would cut the zero-60 time by 0.5 seconds for $2000. Many people immediately jumped at this offer. It may not sound like much, but to 'gear-heads' this is an incredible deal. People often invest a lot of time and maybe $5-6,000 in hardware to achieve the same level of performance boost in an ICE vehicle. Tesla can easily generate tens of millions of dollars at very high margins through this kind of software offering. But much bigger multiples are anticipated if/when Tesla achieves full self driving. Tesla will very likely release some level of FSD within weeks. What would that be worth to the average driver? Instead of stressing out during your daily rush-hour drives, you can sip a coffee while binge-watching Netflix streamed to the 17" screen in your car. Or send your car to pick up your kids from soccer practice. Or tell your car to go make money as a Taxi while you work. This is not decades away, it could be a few years away or even less. Tesla is inching up the cost of FSD as it comes closer to market. It's now a flat $7,000 option I think, but every vehicle has the hardware capability. Tesla could offer a FSD subscription service, letsw say for $100/month? It sounds more than fair - A million subscribers nets $1B per year. Tesla intends to deploy their own robo-taxi network, with full operating costs of just 18 cents per mile. This undercuts all other taxi/ride sharing, etc. companies. Uber ($67B market cap) and Lyft ($17B market cap) could be wiped out. and their revenue gobbled up by Tesla. Tesla outlines plan for ‘Robotaxi’ ride-sharing service Tesla is also a leading energy storage provider -business is booming. Expect Tesla energy and Tesla solar to scale exponentially and add to the bottom line in the coming years. You may not agree with the above points, but you should at least recognize that there is more to Tesla's high valuation than "hype"
I know I broke my own request to settle down on the EV-Tesla-Windmill-Mild hybrid etc debate! I got sucked back in.
I promise I'll try to stoooop
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"I think you’re way off the mark in “mass appeal”. Tesla is a highly attractive brand and is outselling all other EV models. "
""attractive" to whom?
The two Tesla garage in front of me where Dad appears to commute in his Lexus LX 450?"
--
I know you love anecdotal evidence like this. But I fear your disdain for Tesla and Elon Musk is clouding your judgement on how Tesla is viewed by consumers.
Tesla was named "Most Loved Brand" of automobiles by Autotrader based on feedback by 60,000 car owners
Most Loved Brand 2019 – Tesla
Based on a Bloomberg survey, almost 99% of Tesla owners would recommend Tesla to new owners:
Nearly 99% of Model 3 Owners Recommend Tesla to New Customers, says Bloomberg Study
According to Consumer Reports, Tesla owners are more satisfied than any other car brand:
https://www.*.com/tesla-tops-consumer-reports-owner-satisfaction-list-2019-2
Consumers Love Tesla. It's not for everyone - obviously - but no brand is.
Cheers,
Excellent responses! Just note it's "capital" not "capitol"
I think one of the other stand-out features of the M3SR is that they retained the glass roof - how many other cars in that price-bracket have a feature like that?
I think this Cononavirus scare is close to its peak. It will be over in 2 weeks. City wide lock down/shut down is very effective.
Rotte
Member
Mark Twain said, "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."
Clear your browser history Cache and its like you never have been there...
Would be an NRA riseup if tried in the united states
Yeah I think it's a combo of China being overly cautious AND doing it because they can. To us it looks insane and scary because that's hard to imagine here.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I imagine some shorts are holding their positions right up to the earnings release in the hope that bad news is announced (earthquake, tsunami, lawsuit, etc.) and will be covering right before earnings. So, tomorrow may have some pressure on the buy-side.
It wouldn’t matter much if they robotaxi a gasoline car, only electric cars would fit in this world as cost of running it would be far better. However, it is interesting that as these other brands catch up and add lane changing Tesla prepares to unleash city driving for their fleet.
the last 5% of autonomy will be the real race. If it’s even possible, but I put my money on Tesla to get it done.
Tesla Stock Is Rising Ahead of Earnings and Amid Coronavirus Concerns in China
Free Supercharging in China until the crisis is over… Tesla seldom misses an opportunity to do the right thing
Free Supercharging in China until the crisis is over… Tesla seldom misses an opportunity to do the right thing
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Thursday's close won't be in the 500s. If the earnings beat expectations, it goes to 600+. If the earnings do not meet expectations, it slips below 500. I'm expecting the former based on everything I have read and seen.
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AMD shares were down as much as 3% after hours after roughly meeting Wall Street expectations for Q4 earnings.
I'll be watching AAPL earnings a little more closely than usual today since they could discuss supply chain disruption from coronavirus and/or just generally set the tone for the rest of the week.
EDIT: AAPL up ~2.5% AH on record revenue.
I'll be watching AAPL earnings a little more closely than usual today since they could discuss supply chain disruption from coronavirus and/or just generally set the tone for the rest of the week.
EDIT: AAPL up ~2.5% AH on record revenue.
AAPL up almost 3% during the day and now another 3% after hours, after earnings announcement. Hopefully TSLA can have a similar (or better) day tomorrow.
don’t know if this has been mentioned here in the meantime.
Wedbush’s opinion about the virus and its impact on Tesla’s production:
“
Wedbush 'not overly concerned' on coronavirus denting Tesla's China bull thesis
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said that, as of now, he does not see any major disruption on the horizon for Tesla post Chinese New Year, other than maybe a timing issue, as the impact around Shanghai still appears to be in flux amid the coronavirus outbreak in the country. He is "not overly concerned that the China bull thesis takes a major dent despite the tragic coronavirus outbreak," said Ives, who ultimately believes Tesla can hit a 150,000 run-rate for units in China over the next year. Ives also noted that Tesla has been saying all its China vehicles will have free supercharging to facilitate travel until the outbreak is resolved, which he views as "a smart strategic move." Ives maintains a Neutral rating and $550 price target on Tesla shares.”
Breaking News: TSLA latest news. - The Fly
Wedbush’s opinion about the virus and its impact on Tesla’s production:
“
Wedbush 'not overly concerned' on coronavirus denting Tesla's China bull thesis
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said that, as of now, he does not see any major disruption on the horizon for Tesla post Chinese New Year, other than maybe a timing issue, as the impact around Shanghai still appears to be in flux amid the coronavirus outbreak in the country. He is "not overly concerned that the China bull thesis takes a major dent despite the tragic coronavirus outbreak," said Ives, who ultimately believes Tesla can hit a 150,000 run-rate for units in China over the next year. Ives also noted that Tesla has been saying all its China vehicles will have free supercharging to facilitate travel until the outbreak is resolved, which he views as "a smart strategic move." Ives maintains a Neutral rating and $550 price target on Tesla shares.”
Breaking News: TSLA latest news. - The Fly
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