Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the unredacted tweet:

007 on Twitter

"my broker just told me this morning that one of his clients bought $1.2 million worth $300 SHORT TERM PUTS on $tsla and apparently that is all the money the guy has.

"i have a feeling lots of shorts are unfortunately going to lose all their life's savings tryin to short $tsla"

11:39 AM - 28 Jan 2020​

I hope for his sake this shortie doesn't subscribe to the TSLAQ blocklist. These are life-altering decisions, not to be made lightly.

 

[printf42]

Here's the unredacted tweet:

007 on Twitter

"my broker just told me this morning that one of his clients bought $1.2 million worth $300 SHORT TERM PUTS on $tsla and apparently that is all the money the guy has.

"i have a feeling lots of shorts are unfortunately going to lose all their life's savings tryin to short $tsla"

11:39 AM - 28 Jan 2020​

I hope for his sake this shortie doesn't subscribe to the TSLAQ blocklist. These are life-altering decisions, not to be made lightly.

Don’t worry, if the guy is really a doctor, that’s play money, probably just hedging for another account he has.
Real bears sell calls, because “it’s the same as buying puts”, lol

 

[jeewee3000]

What is IV crush ?

Implied Volatility crush.

Option pricing is currently sky high due to expected high volatility after the Earnings Report, i.e. the market expects a big move up or down.

Tomorrow the IV of all options will decrease greatly, therefore reducing the worth of option contracts without any movement of the stock price. Therefore, in order for a short term bet to pay off, the stock price has to move more than 11% up or down (in the direction you bet on ).

 

[Tslynk67]

That’s what I love about this forum. A year ago, I didn’t even know what it meant to "hodl my stonk chairs".

Hmmmm...

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla patent for electrolyte additive to improve battery life. Battery Day can't get here soon enough.

For further progress in the use of electric vehicles and energy storage systems from the network, it is desirable to develop the chemistry of lithium-ion cells, which provides a longer service life at high temperatures [3] and high voltage [2] cells without a significant increase in cost. The introduction of sacrificial electrolyte additives on the order of a few weight percent is a practical method to form protective solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) layers [1] that limit electrolyte decomposition during cell storage and operation. In recent years, significant efforts have allowed to obtain a large number of such additives that can be used to improve the characteristics of cells for various applications.

This patent provides compositions for use as electrolyte additives in lithium-ion battery systems and relates to the chemical composition of rechargeable battery systems, including active electrolyte additives, to improve the properties of rechargeable lithium-ion battery systems. This disclosure covers new battery systems with fewer active electrolyte additives that can be used in various energy storage applications, for example, in vehicles and power systems. More specifically, this disclosure includes additive electrolyte systems that enhance performance and lifetime of lithium-ion batteries, while reducing costs from other systems that rely on more or other additives.

Tesla filed a patent 'Dioxazolones and nitrile sulfites as electrolyte additives for lithium-ion batteries'

1. SEIs form on both the anode and cathode, but usually are more of a research concern for the anode (lithium-intercalated graphite is highly reactive). They form an interphase between the graphite / silicon of the anode and the liquid electrolyte, and have both beneficial and adverse consequences. On the downside, they slow down ion diffusion into and out of the anode, and get thicker over time (quickly early on, increasingly slowly later on). But the upside is quite a fortunate coincidence (since the formation of SEIs was not intended in early li-ion work): they protect the electrode from further decomposition. Hence forming an SEI is important, and its durability and how effectively it resists further degradation is critical. The work here is to form an SEI with as desirable properties as possible in as cost-effective of a manner as possible.

2. Voltage directly corresponds to capacity, by P = I * V. The other part of the equation is amp hours, which corresponds directly to how many lithium ions are mobile between the anode and cathode (voltage is the change in electric potential between the anode and cathode).

3. Li-ion batteries work by moving lithium ions intercalated (inserted into) the cathode across a membrane to intercalate into the anode when charging, and the reverse when discharging. Intercalation is a diffusion problem, both in terms of how much you can ultimately insert / extract, and the rate at which you can do so. And temperature strongly influences diffusion rates. The hotter you can run your cells, the faster you can diffuse ions in / out (current Teslas usually supercharge in the 50s celsius, and discharge in the 30s, under ideal conditions, according to ScanMyTesla data). Lithium ions can only intercalate into cold cells slowly, or not at all (which one may experience as a lack of regen or slow supercharger speeds when the battery is cold). If Tesla can run cells hotter when charging without adversely affecting battery life, they'll be able to charge (significantly) faster, and to (slightly) higher capacities.

 

[Tslynk67]

Here's the unredacted tweet:

007 on Twitter

"my broker just told me this morning that one of his clients bought $1.2 million worth $300 SHORT TERM PUTS on $tsla and apparently that is all the money the guy has.

"i have a feeling lots of shorts are unfortunately going to lose all their life's savings tryin to short $tsla"

11:39 AM - 28 Jan 2020​

I hope for his sake this shortie doesn't subscribe to the TSLAQ blocklist. These are life-altering decisions, not to be made lightly.

Would you make a $300m bet like that based on what you read on Twitter? No, me neither...

 

[gerebgraus]

Jerome is already in a position essentially equivalent to COO and he's doing a great job. No need to change things now I think.
I do think Robyn has likely been doing important work behind the scenes in her Chairman role, potentially with investor communication that could have contributed to new investors getting on board and the recent rally.
I would however like Robyn to also focus on improved customer and media communication. I think she's well placed to lead these efforts.

And also dealing with government regulators and labor issues. (substantially more involved issues in Germany.) She also could have role in sales and service, which Jerome used to lead, but now his role is limited "only" to development and manufacturing.

 

[SageBrush]

Implied Volatility crush.

Option pricing is currently sky high due to expected high volatility after the Earnings Report, i.e. the market expects a big move up or down.

Tomorrow the IV of all options will decrease greatly, therefore reducing the worth of option contracts without any movement of the stock price. Therefore, in order for a short term bet to pay off, the stock price has to move more than 11% up or down (in the direction you bet on ).

Ah ... very helpful. Thanks !
I've wondered about the IV (without knowing the acronym. Yay me.) Am I correct in thinking that a buy/sell spread mitigates most of it ?

 

[Fact Checking]

Perma-bear and alleged market manipulator Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin reiterated his totally not surprising "Sell" rating for Tesla yesterday.

Before quoting from yesterday's piece, which on Wall Street is misunderstood to be an "Analyst report", but should in reality be filed under "Fiction, Entertainment", this is what Craig wrote about Tesla three short months ago:

'Craig Irwin downgraded Tesla to Sell from Neutral (with a price target of $249) after reviewing the company's 10-Q filing for the third quarter, which he said offers evidence that the company's margin performance is "unsustainable."'​

So after that $249 price target and 'unsustainable' Q3 performance he is now out with his Q4 opinion:

"It is well understood Tesla will report an impressive 4Q19 result after disclosure of 112k deliveries against 105k in production."

[ Hard to decipher random gibberish omitted. ]

"Reiterate Sell, as we see outsize risk to Tesla executing on a chunky guide."​

So he re-ran the numbers with what he now expects to be an "impressive 4Q19" and after a bearish downgrade to $249 in Q3 he now expects TSLA to reach a price target of ... $249:

Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin reiterated a Sell rating and $249 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).​

Total coincidence, the numbers are what they are!!

I'd also like to note that it is my firm belief and opinion that the only reason Craig Irwin of Roth Capital has not been indicted by the SEC for felony market manipulation in support of a short-and-distort scheme yet is because he is so bad at it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I guess this is based in the dendrite research and reduction that was being done. Guessing...

Yes, it was discussed here back in October. You can track-back through the chain of referrals beginning with this post:

Indeed, I read the full paper just before I posted my comment (Journal access is one of the perks of being retired from a University).

I will add to your points above that the new Tesla battery patent w/o top cell caps but using a common plate for cell closure and electrical conductors would make the refillable electrolyte scheme far simpler to accomplish in practical mechanical engineering terms.

Yes, I think we're begining to converge on a hint of a glimpse of "Battery Investor Day"...

Cheers!

 

[gerebgraus]

Here's the unredacted tweet:

007 on Twitter

"my broker just told me this morning that one of his clients bought $1.2 million worth $300 SHORT TERM PUTS on $tsla and apparently that is all the money the guy has.

"i have a feeling lots of shorts are unfortunately going to lose all their life's savings tryin to short $tsla"

11:39 AM - 28 Jan 2020​

I hope for his sake this shortie doesn't subscribe to the TSLAQ blocklist. These are life-altering decisions, not to be made lightly.

On seekingalpha there are several TSLAQ manipulators, e.g. montana skeptic, who write complete BS-s that they clearly do not believe themselves. Very large percent of commenters, on the other hand, are very naive, they suck it all up and they will definitely lose everything not understanding what hit them. Based on their knowledge shorting TSLA is risk free. I feel sorry for them. In praise of vile moron Spiegel: He believes every BS he utters himself. He is the honest TSLAQ.

 

[dw4ngg]

Good morning Tesla-mf’s. Thank y’all for all the great insights & camaraderie. My investment and degenerate options strategies and behavior would not be the same without each of you. Let’s eat well tonight. May Elon be blessed and find the chair of his dreams. In Baby J’s name, AMEN.

 

[Fact Checking]

Here's the unredacted tweet:

Yeah, I omitted that part because obviously, as with any tail-end TSLAQ bet, it might still pay off for the wrong reasons. Tomorrow we'll probably know how accurate his expectations of bad enough earnings were, and by February 21 we'll know whether he'll have to start re-earning $1.6m of net worth via a cooler head.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Would you make a $300m bet like that based on what you read on Twitter? No, me neither...

Lol, its a $1.2m bet at the $300 strike, but I don't waste money on Puts. I do not care about drops (unless they let me lower my ASP), only fundamentals. And I don't think were goin' all Sparta-ish anytime soon...

Cheers!

 

[dw4ngg]

Unless those large options txns are hedges or made by 100-millionaires, both the unverified puts play TT007 mentioned and the verified 900 c800 Jun20 buys are sorely dumb. Let’s not be intrigued nor motivated by them.

advice

 

[Krugerrand]

Media is reporting Options open interest implies a move of +/- 11.8% after the earnings letter and call. That implies a possible range of $500 to $630. Imma buyer on any dip, and an hodler way past 630...

Cheers!

Paraphrased: nobody *in the business* knows squat. Lovely.

 

[ReflexFunds]

And also dealing with government regulators and labor issues. (substantially more involved issues in Germany.) She also could have role in sales and service, which Jerome used to lead, but now his role is limited "only" to development and manufacturing.

Jerome has also been leading Service the past 6 months or so, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was also contributing to other parts of the business.

 

[Fact Checking]

Heh:

First Principle Investor ᴺᵒᵗ ᶜᶠᵃ on Twitter


First Principle Investor ᴺᵒᵗ ᶜᶠᵃ
@1stPrincipleInv

Just to provide some perspective. #NotSellingAShareBefore5000

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah, I omitted that part because obviously, as with any tail-end TSLAQ bet, it might still pay off for the wrong reasons. Tomorrow we'll probably know how accurate his expectations of bad enough earnings were, and by February 21 we'll know whether he'll have to start re-earning $1.6m of net worth via a cooler head.

I not a gambler, but @SpaceCash might know this: is it better odds at a Casino in Vegas putting your life savings on red, or black?!

UNeffN believable STOOPID risk (even if he wins). Like this guy: (at least he had the common sense to stand behind a big azz tree before he pulled that trigger)

My calibrated C-1 Gunner Eyeball tells me that steel fridge door was going 150 m/s, or 540 kmh (335 mph) when it hit that tree, instead of ending the shooting career of subject idiot with a big gun.

 

[Unpilot]

Reiterate Sell, as we see outsize risk to Tesla executing on a chunky guide."

Hmm couple that with a sardine bubble ...that spells....um.....well nonsense.