EVNow
Well-Known Member
Why would it be seriously insufficient once GF3 & GF4 come online ?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
He has said that he has never had a contract with Tesla so I don't think that lab would be a Tesla one... But it doesn't mean that Tesla isn't on the same path...
sundaymorning
Active Member
dc_h
Active Member
I think he means until at least 2021. I'd say both 3 & Y are going to be in short supply until Shanghai is up to 300,000 Model 3 and the Model Y starts ramping up next year, and Berlin gets started.
Batteries and buildings are the stumbling blocks to 1 million cars next year.
I have Feb 7th 600s. I'm waiting and Selling on Wednesday. I do believe we are about to witness the beginning of a short squeeze.
I kind of got lost on this item... Everybody was insisting the target SP has to hold for 6 months before the award, but 6 months did not happen.
I saw no explanation post ER.
Seems first post assumes bad Q1 ER?
But 2nd says Q1 is good, because they'll pull one of the levers available...
Then why pullback? If 1,100 is squeeze, it prob. does not need to run for 2 months?
Levers
- FCA credits
- EM said feature complete in ~2 months. That could put it in March, Q1. Recognize a big chunk of FSD revenue.
- tax valuation allowance
- calls
Do we really know it will be bad?
They save up to pay for the award. This just means Tesla thinks it is likely that a level will pay out, it is not the actual grant.
I think you are missing some of what he said. He said that they can't productively spend money any faster than they currently are.
They are spending money to increase battery supply. Some things that show that for sure are the acquisitions of Maxwell and Hibar and the job openings we have seen. They now have to take what they have gotten and integrate it before they can build it out at scale.
It is obvious to me that the Panasonic cell manufacturing can't reasonably be ramped quickly, even with more money. You might be able to build the space and install the equipment but it requires too much manual labor that isn't available in the area. So spending money to duplicate that wouldn't be wise. Remember Elon isn't planning a small change, he is planning a YUGE change: from the current ~34 GWhs to thousands of GWhs. So he is looking for something like 100x what Panasonic is currently doing.
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anthonyj
Stonks
It will follow the same pattern as the 2013 squeeze. The market will find a reason to sell it off in a few months, maybe Elon's baby will be born with blue hair idk. Then will resume trend upwards
$1100 to $650 to $1400
My post referred to the sales numbers that will come out first days of April, not the earning release due end of April. All this stuff above won’t happen until the earnings release but the sales numbers are likely to be bad.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
No need, you'll feel the e-quake. Followed by cashnami sirens.
Singer3000
Member
Two standouts for me:
1) "3 orders of magnitude" improvement in labelling from all 8 cameras simultaneously, which we have to assume is the now legendary Project Dojo. Most people still see the advent of FSD as being like finding alien intelligence. Some think it'll never happen and most of the rest think maybe someday but I'll be old or dead. Seems to me that Dojo is kicking the execution date to well within the investable timeframe. But crucially, one has to wonder what tiny proportion of investable dollars in global markets have realised this yet?
2) The battery "rabbit hole". I take it that this rabbit hole leads all the way to the constrained supply of raw materials for cells. In the passage of time, Tesla is going to become a global mining major, mark my words. The giggle about acquisitions was because they've looked hard and it's not as easy as it sounds - most big mining opportunities are in emerging markets, with all that entails in terms of political risk, labour industrialisation and social/environmental issues. So it's Australia they're going to target and there's a flip chance this gets announced in 2020 (Nickel sulphate).
As for the surge in After Hours, I read the report before checking the price and was pretty surprised to be honest, as the results and guidance were largely par versus my expectations. The price rally (and Elon's big up to Retail) are a timely reminder that there remains a profound lack of understanding of Tesla by the market at large.
1) "3 orders of magnitude" improvement in labelling from all 8 cameras simultaneously, which we have to assume is the now legendary Project Dojo. Most people still see the advent of FSD as being like finding alien intelligence. Some think it'll never happen and most of the rest think maybe someday but I'll be old or dead. Seems to me that Dojo is kicking the execution date to well within the investable timeframe. But crucially, one has to wonder what tiny proportion of investable dollars in global markets have realised this yet?
2) The battery "rabbit hole". I take it that this rabbit hole leads all the way to the constrained supply of raw materials for cells. In the passage of time, Tesla is going to become a global mining major, mark my words. The giggle about acquisitions was because they've looked hard and it's not as easy as it sounds - most big mining opportunities are in emerging markets, with all that entails in terms of political risk, labour industrialisation and social/environmental issues. So it's Australia they're going to target and there's a flip chance this gets announced in 2020 (Nickel sulphate).
As for the surge in After Hours, I read the report before checking the price and was pretty surprised to be honest, as the results and guidance were largely par versus my expectations. The price rally (and Elon's big up to Retail) are a timely reminder that there remains a profound lack of understanding of Tesla by the market at large.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Oh dear God. I have PTSD. Make it on the 21st or 19th.
I’m so happy the single 420 put I bought would be worthless tomorrow.
It costed much less than “selling some trading share” or “de-leverage to commons only”.
Wake me up at battery day, have we already decided it has to be April 20th?
It costed much less than “selling some trading share” or “de-leverage to commons only”.
Wake me up at battery day, have we already decided it has to be April 20th?
So, what did that twitter user post about that secret battery factory?
Looking at the graph in the Q4 ER, it looks like in 2019 about 260-270k M3s were for non-China markets. However, Fremont will also have to make higher trims for China, and I see overall demand for Tesla growing going forward. There might be some cannibalization from MY, but 250k M3 from Fremont does not seem like it'd be quite enough imo.
Giga Berlin is expected to start production mid 2021 if there are no hiccups, but they've stated they will start with Model Y production, so M3 production at Giga Berlin might very well not start until mid 2022. This is two and a half years away. Lower prices due to localized production should also further increase demand in EU at that point.
I also have a feeling that Tesla demand in China is going to be very strong based on the early signs. They may no longer be shipping SR+ to China from Fremont, but I could see Giga Shanghai not being enough to fulfill local demand of SR+ vehicles, and therefore a number of people deciding to order higher trims from the USA.
I could be wrong, and maybe if they manage to squeeze out 12k/week in Fremont, that would be close to fulfilling non-China demand, especially when Giga Berlin starts producing Model Ys and mix at Fremont can shift towards M3. But all in all, I'm not convinced about Fremont production capacity yet, and I'd love some clarification from management.
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