Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Don TLR]

4 Years to fill all the Cybertruck orders? please no Elon,, get those battery lines running overtime. Not selling a share and loving these increases, only wish I had more to Hold..

 

[Skryll]

Tesla will realize FSD profits/sell those call options and join the S&P500 after Q1. People with billions of dollars understand this and will drive the stock higher. No one truly cares about Q1 fluctuations. Last year Tesla had $2b cash in Q1

That plus ASP in Q1 will be significantly higher because of tesla stock rich buyers and upgraders

 

[Cosmacelf]

As for the surge in After Hours, I read the report before checking the price and was pretty surprised to be honest, as the results and guidance were largely par versus my expectations. The price rally (and Elon's big up to Retail) are a timely reminder that there remains a profound lack of understanding of Tesla by the market at large.

100% very much yes.

 

[sundaymorning]

Thanks. This also reminds me how happy the maxwell guys and the trailer guy will be after recent stock run up.

So no more lawsuit over the acquisition?

 

[Cosmacelf]

So, does this mean no dilution?
I believe the prior understanding was they were going to issue new shares.

Mongo used shorthand, I believe, when he posted his response. There will be dilution, new shares will be issued.

 

[mongo]

So, does this mean no dilution?
I believe the prior understanding was they were going to issue new shares.

Yeah, I just re-read the award plan and it seems like dilution,

Mongo used shorthand, I believe, when he posted his response. There will be dilution, new shares will be issued.

Very generous of you.
I'm unclear on where 72 (82?) comes from. @The Accountant or others are more knowledgeable. I just know the award didn't happen.... Yet.

 

[kengchang]

I also have a feeling that Tesla demand in China is going to be very strong based on the early signs. They might no longer ship SR+ from the USA, but I could see Giga Shanghai not being enough to fulfill local demand of SR+ vehicles, and therefore a number of people deciding to order higher trims from the USA.

Fremont stopped supplying SR+ to China. Last call to order USA SR+ was Oct 19

 

[M3Rider]

My post referred to the sales numbers that will come out first days of April, not the earning release due end of April. All this stuff above won’t happen until the earnings release but the sales numbers are likely to be bad.

At least "feature complete" if happens would be known before P&D / ER. This could be bullish if people get a week to test it out and it looks decent.

 

[FrankSG]

So now it is decision time

when is the best day to sell my call options expiring on Feb 7? Should I just sell tomorrow or on Friday? Or should I be greedy and wait till next week hoping for a good squeeze to set in?
Any and all ‘Not an advice’ from this group is most welcome.

So yeah, first of all this is not an advice, purely my opinion and what I'm going to do tomorrow. I could be very, very wrong. No one can accurately predict a top.

I was surprised to see the SP be at $650 after reading the ER, because I thought it was good, but nothing unexpected. I do believe there are funds who have been waiting to go long and shorts who have been waiting to cover, because they thought Q3 might've been a one-time fluke. On the other hand, there should also be a lot of swing traders that might be looking to take profits.

All in all, I don't expect a crazy run up in the coming 1-2 months, but then again I did not expect this crazy run up when we were at $420, so who knows. There are likely still funds and shorts on the sideline waiting to see how Q1 pans out before buying, especially in light of cautionary guidance on Q1 during the call. If Q1 is equally 'solid' as Q4, I would expect another (likely bigger) bump. But until then, I don't think Q4 was mind-blowing enough, nor guidance for 2020 strong enough to warrant $800+ in the next 1-2 months.

Add onto that macro risks, and I think I'll be selling all or most of my 21 Feb $800 calls tomorrow, likely a large chunk right at open. I'd be more tempted to hold onto some 7 Feb $650s a little bit, because your IV crunch won't be as bad as mine, but I will definitely be looking to take profits on my 21 Feb $800s.

 

[sundaymorning]

To me the most positive take from today is that we got to $650 without even using most of the available ammo.

No talk about SP500
No talk about FCA money
No talk about deferred taxes
No specific date or info about battery day (and more than two months out)
Only 500k given as delivery goal which to most here is very low
No specifics given on any specific production achivements really. Didn't even get a question about when they'll get to X number of model Y per day etc.

There are hardly any promises made they can really miss baring macro economic stuff. But still so many achievements they can announce this year. I was sure they would have to make lots more promises on the high end to get to $650.

$800 in February?

Elon, please don’t shoot the home team with the dry ammo like you did with $420.

 

[Artful Dodger]

With AH over 620$ I am thinking forced covering from margin calls...

Margin calls don't work instantly like that. The client is given some time to either move $$ into the trading acct, or sell other equities to maintian the min. margin req'd.

Tomorrow morning though, look out. (it;ll be 'well howdy' time at 7 am)

 

[FrankSG]

Fremont stopped supplying SR+ to China. Last call to order USA SR+ was Oct 19

Yeah, I'm aware. I used the wrong words in my original post to convey what I meant. Have edited it.

 

[sparcs]

So, what did that twitter user post about that secret battery factory?

nothing, because he's always extremely vague making comments about already public information.

He allegedgly went inside GF3, he allegedly went to Tesla's cold weather testing, he allegedly went to a secret battery lab, he allegedly met with Elon and Trump, but no way for any of us to verify it. Always conveniently vague with details and then you start adding up all the claims....

 

[kengchang]

nothing, because he's always extremely vague making comments about already public information.

He went inside GF3, he went to Tesla's cold weather testing, he went secret battery lab, but no way for any of us to verify it. Always conveniently vague with details....

Secret battery lab is at somewhere very cold, that's a hint so it's unlikely to be Tesla's

 

[Tim S]

Today was a good day. My wife's new shirt arrived (ordered 2 weeks ago)...

 

[MP3Mike]

nothing, because he's always extremely vague making comments about already public information.

Actually he said a number of things:

SoylentBrown
@BrownSoylent
·
Dec 8, 2019

Just watched a battery pack frozen to -40F produce 750kw. It weighs under 500kg to boot. Not too shabby...

SoylentBrown
@BrownSoylent
·
Dec 8, 2019

Replying to
@RickyEnvelope
Hmmm....I think I can give a hint here. Some reactions are exothermic, some endothermic. Secret sauces FTW in this case! This prototype is far more temp independent than anything I've seen to date.

SoylentBrown
@BrownSoylent
·
Dec 9, 2019

Just getting our day started here. Previously we were examine wide temp range cells. Today we are checking out some extremely high power density cells. We really need one cell with ALL these amazing properties!! Its coming but I'm not exactly the patient type...

 

[Artful Dodger]

"We're not in Kansas anymore, Toto."

Cheers!

 

[sparcs]

Actually he said a number of things:

he might be a well read engineer who is taking people for a ride. not a whole lot to be ascertained beyond that.

the unverifiable claims just keep adding up though...

 

[M3Rider]

But until then, I don't think Q4 was mind-blowing enough, nor guidance for 2020 strong enough to warrant $800+ in the next 1-2 months.

Add onto that macro risks, and I think I'll be selling all or most of my 21 Feb $800 calls tomorrow, likely a large chunk right at open. I'd be more tempted to hold onto some 7 Feb $650s a little bit, because your IV crunch won't be as bad as mine, but I will definitely be looking to take profits on my 21 Feb $800s.

I believe the last time we had ATH(funny milestone these days), anyway, one of more significant ones, it seems the runup next day was not as big as the day after (margin calls), which could potentially make Fri look better than Thu?
Unless MMs really get involved on Fri and push SP down, which is also a possibility.

Interesting choices. I wish I had a whole bunch of these calls to unload a couple per day until expiration.

 

[Yuri_G]

So yeah, first of all this is not an advice, purely my opinion and what I'm going to do tomorrow. I could be very, very wrong. No one can accurately predict a top.

I was surprised to see the SP be at $650 after reading the ER, because I thought it was good, but nothing unexpected. I do believe there are funds who have been waiting to go long and shorts who have been waiting to cover, because they thought Q3 might've been a one-time fluke. On the other hand, there should also be a lot of swing traders that might be looking to take profits.

All in all, I don't expect a crazy run up in the coming 1-2 months, but then again I did not expect this crazy run up when we were at $420, so who knows. There are likely still funds and shorts on the sideline waiting to see how Q1 pans out before buying, especially in light of cautionary guidance on Q1 during the call. If Q1 is equally 'solid' as Q4, I would expect another (likely bigger) bump. But until then, I don't think Q4 was mind-blowing enough, nor guidance for 2020 strong enough to warrant $800+ in the next 1-2 months.

Add onto that macro risks, and I think I'll be selling all or most of my 21 Feb $800 calls tomorrow, likely a large chunk right at open. I'd be more tempted to hold onto some 7 Feb $650s a little bit, because your IV crunch won't be as bad as mine, but I will definitely be looking to take profits on my 21 Feb $800s.

How do you suppose those 24 million shares sold short are going to cover without driving the price up?