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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I believe the last time we had ATH(funny milestone these days), anyway, one of more significant ones, it seems the runup next day was not as big as the day after (margin calls), which could potentially make Fri look better than Thu?
Unless MMs really get involved on Fri and push SP down, which is also a possibility.

Interesting choices. I wish I had a whole bunch of these calls to unload a couple per day until expiration.
My guess is MM are done keeping down. Weaks or happy w gain Longs sell tmrw morn... violent down followed by violent up and then blood bath and then settles
 
It is obvious to me that the Panasonic cell manufacturing can't reasonably be ramped quickly, even with more money.

That or, what I think is more likely, it simply isn't in Tesla's plans to expand their relationship with Panasonic. They will be rolling their own batteries, and they're close to having a working system that they will use to satisfy future battery needs.
 
Be careful. Tesla did not guide anything for Q1 other than a statement that it will be challenging due to the usual seasonality in sales and a China ramp that might not be perfect. Remember how much the market freaked out after Q1 last year? We've got 2 months before these bad sales numbers are disclosed. It almost has to take the stock price down, doesn't it? At some point between now and then the market will figure this out...

As someone with deep concerns about the coronavirus the China factory doesn't have to sell just to china any more than Fremont has to sell to USA. There are a lot of people in Asia. So there is a world where much of China is quarantined but there is still plenty of market in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand etc. If there is any company capable of adapting its Tesla.

Side note: I stopped by the Fremont showroom Saturday and I know that its just the way Tesla is, but it was amazing how little interest anyone there had in selling me anything. I really want to get a Y for my wife, and I told the salesperson that and they just shrugged. I wanted to buy one of the $160 jackets but the sales person and my wife convinced me that wearing that having never worked at Tesla was a little weird, so they downsold me on the hoodie... I still like the jacket though.

Salesguy also mentioned they didn't have any of the broken glass cybertruck shirts but he wanted to get them in stock, but since Elon tweeted about them it was pretty much impossible even for them to get them.
 
I know its the forgotten, boring thing...but I would love to hear more details on the production of the semi in the investor call. Feels like about time they started seriously working on that. I was hoping for more than the 'some deliveries this year' comment tbh. Maybe cybertruck pre-orders and Y pre-orders have pushed the semi back?
3 words: ITS THE BATTERIES
 
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I think Elon is picking April for battery investor day because it'll be just before Q1 results. Elon will no doubt wow us with advanced technology and wave his hands fast enough about manufacturing capability.

That's the biggest load of sugar I've seen posted here in quite a while.

If I'm not mistaken, today Musk said he was looking towards holding battery day AFTER Q1 results due to other things happening around that time. And to characterize Musk's presentations as "wowing" us with advanced technology is pretty condescending. He's not that kind of showman (although the TSLAQ crowd would like you to think he is that and more). And most of us are not very gullible (although the TSLAQ crowd would like you to believe we are that and more).
 
That's the biggest load of sugar I've seen posted here in quite a while.

If I'm not mistaken, today Musk said he was looking towards holding battery day AFTER Q1 results due to other things happening around that time. And to characterize Musk's presentations as "wowing" us with advanced technology is pretty condescending. He's not that kind of showman (although the TSLAQ crowd would like you to think he is that and more).

To be fair, it does feel like the last few months have been set up so that a series of really good pieces of news are released spaced out enough to continue an ongoing rally
 
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Great day for Tesla all around! So much amazing news to digest. I listened to today’s conference call with a huge grin the whole time. I just couldn’t believe though that Adam Jonas decided to use his one question to ask about Starlink receivers being installed on Tesla cars! That was the best question he could come up with?? What a joke! You could tell that Elon was pretty much dismissive of this question. Sorry if this was already discussed earlier, I’m still trying to catch up on all the posts!
 
How do you suppose those 24 million shares sold short are going to cover without driving the price up?

  • A significant portion of those are delta hedges from convertible bonds holders as per @ReflexFunds.
  • Another portion is rumored to be an expense from the oil industry rather than an investment.
  • Many shorts are still going to assume Q1 will be bad (with the help of virus) and assume they'll be able to cover at better prices post-Q1.
  • Volume is likely to be very high in the near term, and there are definitely going to be profit takers (swing traders + weak longs), so there should be some shares available for shorts that want to cover.
  • Most importantly, when have people being short TSLA ever been rational? Being short at $650 now is a terrible idea, being short at $380 five weeks ago was a terrible idea, and being short TSLA at $180 back in June was the most stupid trade anyone could make at the time, yet plenty of stupid and/or deceived people were short TSLA back then. Don't expect this to change over night, if ever.
I could easily be very wrong like I was at $420, and price could run up a lot more in the near term, but I'm personally taking my one small short term bet off the table, and converting it to shares.
 
So yeah, first of all this is not an advice, purely my opinion and what I'm going to do tomorrow. I could be very, very wrong. No one can accurately predict a top.

I was surprised to see the SP be at $650 after reading the ER, because I thought it was good, but nothing unexpected. I do believe there are funds who have been waiting to go long and shorts who have been waiting to cover, because they thought Q3 might've been a one-time fluke. On the other hand, there should also be a lot of swing traders that might be looking to take profits.

All in all, I don't expect a crazy run up in the coming 1-2 months, but then again I did not expect this crazy run up when we were at $420, so who knows. There are likely still funds and shorts on the sideline waiting to see how Q1 pans out before buying, especially in light of cautionary guidance on Q1 during the call. If Q1 is equally 'solid' as Q4, I would expect another (likely bigger) bump. But until then, I don't think Q4 was mind-blowing enough, nor guidance for 2020 strong enough to warrant $800+ in the next 1-2 months.

Add onto that macro risks, and I think I'll be selling all or most of my 21 Feb $800 calls tomorrow, likely a large chunk right at open. I'd be more tempted to hold onto some 7 Feb $650s a little bit, because your IV crunch won't be as bad as mine, but I will definitely be looking to take profits on my 21 Feb $800s.
I think we are so well informed here that we forget just how badly informed everyone else is. They get taken by surprise every time something like today happens to them. I don't even mean $TSLAQ, I just mean the average individual investor or car buyer.
 
That's the biggest load of sugar I've seen posted here in quite a while.

If I'm not mistaken, today Musk said he was looking towards holding battery day AFTER Q1 results due to other things happening around that time. And to characterize Musk's presentations as "wowing" us with advanced technology is pretty condescending. He's not that kind of showman (although the TSLAQ crowd would like you to think he is that and more). And most of us are not very gullible (although the TSLAQ crowd would like you to believe we are that and more).
No, he said after the end of the quarter, some time in April.

Not after ER if that's what you mean by results. Likely, after P&D.
 
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Seeing as Tesla is still sold out for Q1, what's our opinion on delivery? Even without GF3, I don't imagine they'll have any problem doing 100k-110k. I mean, that's what sold out means right?
Without another massive stock option expense, shouldn't be hard to turn a profit even with product ramp, right?

Where did you read/hear that they are sold out for Q1? That's news to me.

I think we are so well informed here that we forget just how badly informed everyone else is. They get taken by surprise every time something like today happens to them. I don't even mean $TSLAQ, I just mean the average individual investor or car buyer.

Yes -- isn't it possible that just as this forum was flabbergasted that no one else had the foresight to buy TSLA like crazy last year at $200, this forum might be flabbergasted that everyone is now piling in on TSLA this year at $500+?
 
Futures down...wonder if it will cap or enhance the rally.
Tesla is the futures! We go with or without the street.

but anyways I noticed that early show that starts at like 6am est on CNBC had promised a segment on Tesla tomorrow, I think it will be fun to record some of those shows to see the reaction. I noticed they tried to avoid Tesla early today knowing it will be the big story tomorrow.
 
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IMO the SP will continue to go up in the short-medium term until proven otherwise. 80% SP increase in 6 weeks? This is not normal. Partly short squeeze, partly large funds getting on board, partly everyone finally realizing the wool had been pulled over their eyes about Tesla the business by Wall St. and the media for years - doesn't matter. I am holding my short squeeze lottery calls now until this plays out. I left some profits on the table selling some LEAPs and shares (15% or so of my total position) from $380-480 to get out of margin and get some dry powder, and I'm not making that mistake again by selling out too early.
 
That's the biggest load of sugar I've seen posted here in quite a while.

If I'm not mistaken, today Musk said he was looking towards holding battery day AFTER Q1 results due to other things happening around that time. And to characterize Musk's presentations as "wowing" us with advanced technology is pretty condescending. He's not that kind of showman (although the TSLAQ crowd would like you to think he is that and more). And most of us are not very gullible (although the TSLAQ crowd would like you to believe we are that and more).

If you’re going to insult someone, you’d better get your facts right.

Elon said he would hold it after Q1, sometime in April. He did NOT say after Q1 results. The other things happening comment referred to the usual end of quarter push.