Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dww12]

FWIW, Buffett is one of the "enemies":
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I think those not selling TSLA at the bottom (and mortgaging the house to buy more) to defend TSLA from going bankrupt can now help put FF on it’s last legs by not selling high/ever now. I had not checked XOM or VLO in a while. They are not looking good. Hopefully I can get my ABB/rental house sold in the next few months, pay off my margin and start flipping houses on the side by adding TSLA solar and car chargers. As long as I break even doing that I’ll be happy.

 

[WarpedOne]

hey folks, remember the $700s? that was a fun day!

 

[FrankSG]

I wonder how long it'll take all these Wall Street expert analysts to up their price targets again.

You'd think they'd eventually get tired of adjusting their price target every couple days, and announce a proper 1-2 year price target, rather than all these 1-2 day price targets we've seen as of late.

 

[DragonWatch]

I never get tired of this green with envy bull

 

[mongo]

Petrol and diesel car sales ban brought forward to 2035
Pull forward of new ICE sales ban (including hybrids) in the UK to 2035 at the latest (from 2040) expected to be announced today.

Thanks to @ValueAnalyst for the link Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

I prefer more sophisticated humor ie The Jerk.

Hey, poor white boy, s___:

And shinola:

 

[ggr]

You need to do your home work. Do imaginary buys of options with various strikes (ITM, OTM) different strikes and follow them. Track %change versus %change in price change. Do not be fooled by prices that represent no action that day and you’ll answer your question without risking loses

Disagree. You will imagine that you bought at the right instant and sold at the right instant, but when there's real money on the line that is not what actually happens. It can make a big difference. Even if the amount is relatively small (for you) at least it reflects real decisions.

 

[dww12]

Petrol and diesel car sales ban brought forward to 2035
Pull forward of new ICE sales ban (including hybrids) in the UK to 2035 at the latest (from 2040) expected to be announced today.

Thanks to @ValueAnalyst for the link Twitter

Big whoop, there won’t be any hybrids in 2035 anyway. That’s 15 freakin years from now. There won’t be any hybrids in 5.

 

[Tslynk67]

Ha! This is probably TMC's best fundraising moment ever! But you're right. Paying it forward.

They must be flush with cash, how about splashing out on some more up-to-date forum platform?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Big whoop, there won’t be any hybrids in 2035 anyway. That’s 15 freakin years from now. There won’t be any hybrids in 5.

I expect that in a few years' time the expiry date of ICE sales in the UK will be brought forward even more, to 2030. We're are already at 2030 in The Netherlands and Norway is 2025 if I'm correct.

 

[RobStark]

hey folks, remember the $700s? that was a fun day!

AAA-fiddy?

 

[RobStark]

Mach-e Frunk Shrimp Cocktails

 

[Tslynk67]

If you can all cast you minds back to this time yesterday, pre-market was down a percent or so. Thus reversed at 7ET when pre-market opened to a wider demographic.

So what’s going to happen today? Whaddya think, huh?

Not an advice, but I’m thinking 8xx might whizz by...

 

[DragonWatch]

Interesting to note from super bowl commercials. Lots of brand automakers advertising late entries into the real EV world ~ or wild. Low mileage and NO Supercharging capabilities. Maybe the sick, lame and lazy can use them like in California where the wanta-B cool drive one house over to watch the super bowl.

This was probably the second televised football game I have ever watched. The first was Army vs Air Farce back in 1986 ~ roughly. Yes, army did not win. I did not care anyway. I was too busy working for a real living.

I think my investment in Tesla is too forward thinking for the old army/military.

 

[Favguy]

If you can all cast you minds back to this time yesterday, pre-market was down a percent or so. Thus reversed at 7ET when pre-market opened to a wider demographic.

So what’s going to happen today? Whaddya think, huh?

Not an advice, but I’m thinking 8xx might whizz by...

Think the day is going to end with the price starting with a 9, heck, could even end starting with a 1 if things go crazy...

 

[Fact Checking]

Okay, update. This morning I had solicited advice on what to do with my first option purchase as things were moving fast. I had bought a single $750 contract on 1/16/20 for $2.20, expires 2/21/20. SP was climbing into the 700's pretty fast and I wasn't expecting the possibility of it actually being ITM 2+ weeks into it. Never the less, didn't get any advice as the SP exceeded my $752.20 break even. However, my account showed a 2,800% ish gain so I sold it at $60 for an almost $6k profit on $220 in 18 days.

My understanding is that as the expiration date approaches, the theta decays exponentially so I decided to take the sure bet rather than expect the climb to be as meteoric as these past 2 weeks have been. Obviously no one can predict what the next 2 weeks will do but did I jump the gun here and miss out on potentially more significant gains? I keep hearing about after being ITM for too long, there are diminishing returns. Would that have even been an issue with such a short term option?

Disagree. You will imagine that you bought at the right instant and sold at the right instant, but when there's real money on the line that is not what actually happens. It can make a big difference. Even if the amount is relatively small (for you) at least it reflects real decisions.

I too disagree big time: there's plenty of people who can make nice profits on paper and in demo accounts, but who'll lose money quick in live trading.

Once there's real money on the line and the zeroes increase at the end of the value of your position, with the outcome having real consequences to how you'll live going forward, any homo sapiens with a human brain will be awash in emotions, both positive and negative ones. It takes years and a lot of practice to detach from these emotions, especially in options trading which is using highly leveraged depreciating assets, which state of detachment most retail investors won't be able to achieve, barring frontal lobotomy.

This is doubly true of Tesla investors who've been through the emotional roller-coaster of the past ~3 years of unprecedented heavy suppression of TSLA value. I'm quite sure countless options trading accounts were wiped out in the first half of 2019 - after the bullish optimism that ended 2018.

@dgodfrey did very well I think, the 2/21 expiry is close enough to be considered a lottery ticket. Even if he left money on the table, time was running out on the options contract and taking profits during a run-up will give him a lot of implied volatility gains that could be lost in just another day of flat trading at the same price level. Taking profits when the option moves in the money is actually a good rule-based profit taking strategy for lottery tickets if you don't otherwise trust your own judgement when the going gets tough. For TSLA the "ITM moment" of breakouts is also often the time when formerly OTM contracts appreciate the most in value and are effectively on maximum leverage, due to the shorts who wrote naked calls getting squeezed and forced to buy-in and driving up the price well beyond fair value.

He could have tried to roll up into a higher expiry to take only part of the profits and roll the dice with the rest - but going all cash is fine too, because "letting your winners run" is often not the best strategy with short term options and the current run-up in TSLA is really a special moment.

Congratulations to @dgodfrey!

 

[T@oo]

If you can all cast you minds back to this time yesterday, pre-market was down a percent or so. Thus reversed at 7ET when pre-market opened to a wider demographic.

So what’s going to happen today? Whaddya think, huh?

Not an advice, but I’m thinking 8xx might whizz by...

I'm not sure what will happen with TSLA, but at around 780 Euro, my initial stocks will be at 30x and I plan to celebrate that with a bottle of french sparkling wine.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Won’t Schwab effectuate your transfer?

They are trying. Even did 3 way call and with fidelity Schwab and me. Fidelity not responsive to Schwab. At first they claimed Schwab cancelled request then fidelity admitted they refused and agreed it should have been approved but they needed to go through margin department even though I purposely don’t have and never applied for margin access and it’s an ira account that can’t use margin. At least we have a recorded line with them admitting mistake. I did sell 20 contracts of covered calls but those shares covering the calls are on/y less than 2% of my shares and I was trying to transfer only 50% of my total shares. After this will get out of fidelity for good and spread it to multiple brokerages. It’s a difficult time to not have access to my shares for days

 

[Chickenlittle]

Disagree. You will imagine that you bought at the right instant and sold at the right instant, but when there's real money on the line that is not what actually happens. It can make a big difference. Even if the amount is relatively small (for you) at least it reflects real decisions.

It’s a start. There is also a book investing for dummies that is great for beginners that can take novices through very complex details of the market

 

[KarenRei]

I'm so glad we finally have some new higher strikes! Back into spreads for me. Too bad the strike I'll be selling is literally the highest offered ($1500 for Mar '21), so not much room to go up from there.