Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Can you share the link. Lots of posts today.

Tesla investor Ron Baron sees $1 trillion in revenue in 10 years — and that won't be the end

 

[Rammstein]

The only reason I will go to bed tonight is that its the quickest way to get to tomorrow's open.

God I can’t sleep at night these last few days. Didn’t know making so much money could be so stressful.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's odd that they would do that. I'd think an oil based economy would hold long term investments in anything non-fossil fuel based wherever possible.

I'm thinking the management of the Public Investment Fund was hijacked to hold Tesla shares down by supplying the market with a constant stream of shares for sale. But then they ran out of shares and the rest is history. They may have been duped into doing this with promises of being able to buy back in for a lot less but the hijackers were not able to deliver on their promises.

 

[EV forever]

LOL: Market watch popup just now:

Tesla stock turns negative
MARKETWATCH 3:57 PM ET 2/4/2020

Does anyone have a screenshot of this article? It was deleted within minutes.

It’s not funny, it reeks of manipulation

 

[Unpilot]

Back up to 904.50 in after hours.

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyone care to explain the advantages of dumping 2.5 million shares 10 mins prior to closing vs dumping it after market? If it's manipulation, wouldn't dumping 2.5 million shares be more effective on stock price than when open?

People look at charts from market hours. Not so much aftermarket which doesn't have the impact or credibility. It's more impressive if they can move the market during regular hours. They would do both but they have to allocate resources for the most impact.

 

[dakh]

Who out there has the most credible explanation for the gigantic drop at closing? It reeks of manipulation.

I’ve been checking the various “TSLA breaks $900” YouTube videos but none of them tackle this issue.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Unpilot]

Make no mistake, they want your TSLA shares.

They can have my shares when they pry them from my cold dead fingers. Or give me 10,000 a share to start.

 

[AudubonB]

If Ford had a bad Q4 and has a bleak outlook for this year, just wait until Cybertruck eats into there F-150 sales. I don't understand why Ford isn't shorted more than Tesla....

Read my post about short-selling and dividends. Ford now yields 6.68% - that is a lot of pork chop.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Profit taking?

Maybe. I'm no expert, but to me it looked WAY too coordinated to be random people grabbing profits. It looked like a determined effort to get the price below $900 by EoD... We'll see what Pops tells us!

 

[BornToFly]

Does anyone have historical data on how TSLA trades after several days of solid gains with big volume? What are the odds that tomorrow is a red day after the last two days?

 

[wipster]

I predict Donald Trump mentions Tesla, SpaceX, and/or Elon Musk in the SOTU address tonight. Something along his same lines of needing to protect/support our geniuses. I predict the stock market will like this tomorrow.

Along with how we need to take care of Thomas Edison and those great light bulbs. While the stock market may like it, the man saying it is an idiot.

 

[trailhound]

Insane volume will it last?

Share Volume
60,938,758
50 Day Avg. Daily Volume
14,387,088

 

[smorgasbord]

Interesting for me to hear Baron saying Tesla could be one of the largest companies of all time.

I should have posted this in the "I called it" thread, but at a Tesla event in Aug 2017 (during Pebble Beach car week) I told Jon McNeill (who was then VP of Sales & Service) that I fully expected in the future to see Elon testifying to Congress about why the government should not break the company up since it was an energy monopoly. He seemed surprised and laughed. So, I wasn't too surprised when he left for Lyft within a year.

He and my wife are the only witnesses, and somehow I don't think he's following this thread closely enough to confirm (or if he even remembers). But, between energy generation, storage, and consumption Tesla does have that large a potential.

 

[Curt Renz]

Those whose TSLA holdings have greatly grown as the TSLA share price has been soaring, may want to research the difference in income taxes for short-term and long-term (year or more) holdings. They can be quite substantial. For tax purposes, stock profits are not "realized" until shares are sold. This should be an important consideration in determining when to sell.

 

[StealthP3D]

So then why wouldn't you dump earlier in the day? 10 mins doesn't give a lot of people time to react besides activating stop losses but also activating buy orders. But then again low volume after market would have a much bigger impact on sp even though there's a possibility of gapping up the next day correct?.

I don't think it's about getting the shares they need immediately after the flash crash, by crashing the price at the end of the day they create the kind of news that can instill fear in the minds of people sitting on big gains. They give that fear overnight to fully ferment and allow shareholders the time and space they need to resolve to sell in the morning. They hope this will create further selling in the morning. I don't think it will work due to the large pent-up demand but they can try. It might pay for itself and then some.

 

[Maitri982]

Talk about luck..on the run to $950 this morning I saw the $1000 calls expiring Friday we’re selling for $35 a pop. So I sold 10. 30 minutes or so later the stock caved for a bit and I bought them back at $15. Netted over 20k for 30 minutes of “work”. Time to donate some money.

 

[Hock1]

People keep asking me: "So what's going on with TSLA?"
First: No the stock (stonk) is not worth $200B... Maybe in 3-5 years it will be, but today's fair-value price is no more than $100B (and that's a bull-market scenario, bear market it could be worth half that).
So what's going on: The way I see it, you have a bunch of shorts that got destroyed on the post-earnings spike. They are now buying to cover their shorts... But they know that buying huge quantities will spike the stock price... So what do you do to mitigate losses? Buy OTM calls... But calls are thinly traded... So market makers try to ask for a premium, this rally keeps going, so they ask for larger premiums, and as the stock starts moving, they start hedging bets with buying more stocks... More fuel to the mix.
Half of $TSLA float is locked up by institutional investors who aren't trading, and while we've had high-volume days, most of these are hedges and day-traders.. Net short-interest may be down, but I'd be surprised if it was more than 8million shares.
So where does $TSLA go from here? Look at the closing drop: $100 in 15min. Buyers are exhausted, when a big whale comes in to dump a large number of shares. Or insitutional investors like $ARKK who are forced to sell for regulartory reasons, this thing will come crashing down.
I suspect we may go up over $1k or even $1150 tomorrow before coming back to $650 in the next week.
And No that's not a buy at $650... $650 is still too expensive for core holdings.

You seem to be so sure of your analysis that the company is now worth no more than $100B. I'd love to hear the details of that analysis. TIA.

 

[Cosmacelf]

And here I thought that market sentiment had changed and most previous doubters had thrown in the towel. Holman Jenkins, Wall Street Journal columnist, just wrote a stupid editorial today recycling various myths and at best giving Tesla backhanded compliments. The struggle continues.

Opinion | Tesla’s Stock Goes to Heaven

 

[dakh]

Short holding period options in taxable accounts: just wanted to confirm that pretty much there are these ways to unwind that:

1. Sit on it until it is over a year old (if expiration allows), sell and pay cap gain tax
2. Sell now and take regular income tax on the chin
3. Exercise and lose time value
4. Donate, gift etc.

..and for #3, it then would make sense to exercise options with the lowest strike price since time value loss will be minimal and they'd take the least amount of cash to happen

Any problems with this thinking?