Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

OK, so, I want to drop one image into this thread, something interesting I noticed.

View attachment 507952

Note the two candles I've drawn red boxes around.

Also, I actually see this price action as a positive, despite the fact that we just got manipulated hard: the shorts are very much still alive, if they're up to these shenanigans. That implies to me that this probably isn't the squeeze yet. (That part is not an advice.)

I don't think shorts have given up, or even if some have, new shorts will find current price attractive...

They will try to push the price down in future especially, if they can construct a vaguely convincing narrative .......

They are struggling to find a convincing narrative, at present and the current price movements are not helping... but that doesn't mean they have given up .... just those that are trying are not currently cutting through...

I'm not sure if we will ever get a classical squeeze, or when that will happen, shorts are losing money, some of them must be running out of money, or be so far under water they are just hanging on and hoping...

So overtime they are going to have less and less influence and be successful less often, that doesn't mean they can't have the occasional win... via a combination of persistence, a bit of aid from the media, and perhaps the odd bit of luck..

Long term Telsa is a bad company to bet against .... so the long run outcome isn't in doubt ...

 

[StealthP3D]

This snippet from that blog post caught my eye. Underlining is mine:

Our ergonomics team continues to explore the effectiveness of new technologies to improve safety, including exoskeletons and sensors to support healthy posture and movements. This work, along with that of our athletic trainers, is critical given that a majority of our injuries are musculoskeletal in nature.

That gives me a picture of the factory floor filled with robots....and robot-enhanced humans. Wow!

I was hoping when I become old and decrepit I could avoid using a wheelchair. Maybe I'll be able to slip on a Tesla exoskeleton and walk around like a normal human! That would be most appreciated!

 

[Carl Raymond]

SPYX:
SPYX

Worth keeping an eye on this divergence.

 

[JRP3]

As someone else wisely posted here, knowing what we've known for YEARS: where else would you invest the money?

Maybe TSLA at a lower price? Or a Tesla?

 

[defc0n]

There has to be a whale buying up others involved in the electric car sector as well:

Blackrock talked recently about changing up their investments to be environmentally conscious I know.

 

[BornToFly]

My account is up more than 10X from where it was in June. My family went through extreme hardship 4 months ago, and I am now considering retiring this year or next. The first step is owning my house, so I sold 19% of my shares today at 959 to pay off my mortgage. I plan to keep 66% of my remaining shares another 5-10 years, so I have 33% of the remaining shares that I am looking to sell to pull off the retirement. My price point now is 1200 or higher. Of course, if the stock drops below 800, the retirement plans are off the table (but at least my house is paid). I think S&P 500 this year will guarantee at least 1200, but we will see. I hope I don't regret not selling more shares today because I was being greedy and wanted more money to retire with.....

 

[dl003]

Boy, the comment section under GM's Hummer EV ad on FB is UGLY
Seems their target demographic either hates EV or loves gas.

 

[kbM3]

Quite a few people today mentioned complete divestment if a certain trigger event occurred. E.g. to make a purchase, buy a Tesla, or because a number was hit. In addition several were concerned about options.

Here are some things to consider:

1) Instead of triggering a complete or huge sale all at once, consider gradually deleveraging as the stock increases. This might entail going from short term calls to longer term calls, or going from long term calls to shares, or diversifying shares to other stocks gradually. Basically view it as gradually decreasing your TSLA percentage. E.g. if a share price of $1200 makes you an even $100k and that was your goal for the short term, consider how you’d feel if it went to $1100, and then retreated to $500-$600 for a couple of years. Also consider how you’d feel if it continued upwards to $2k / share. Magic and round numbers are just that. If $5M was your goal and you’re older, maybe consider deleveraging as you approach. A nice feature of deleveraging as the stock rises, is that you can re-leverage back up if it falls, and that definitely helps psychologically.

2) Except for tax purposes, how you got to this point is completely irrelevant. Let’s pretend you invested 5% of your holdings ( an amount you considered play money), into calls. Well, it is no longer play money. If for example it now comprises 50% of your your portfolio, the only question is whether you want 50% of your portfolio currently invested in calls. Once again, THE PAST DOESN'T MATTER.

3) Tax consequences may be huge if you’ve made a ton outside of tax-free accounts, but you can’t let that paralyze you into being too risky. Once again consider how you’d feel if this run ends and the stock heads back down.

Especially those who’ve stated they feel like the dog that doesn’t know what to do with the car it just caught and who may be in short term options, you’d better really, really think about whether you’re ok with losing all of it.

it would be an extremely sad story to say ”I once had $100k and I lost it all”. Saying you sold out at $100k and could have had $200k, is a funny anecdote, but not truly sad.

 

[BornToFly]

If Ford had a bad Q4 and has a bleak outlook for this year, just wait until Cybertruck eats into there F-150 sales. I don't understand why Ford isn't shorted more than Tesla....

 

[purplewalt]

Boy, the comment section under GM's Hummer EV ad on FB is UGLY
Seems their target demographic either hates EV or loves gas.

Maybe they want/need a grunting sound of a gas engine to complete their fantasy.

Porsche (and BMW) could give them some insight how to pipe in some tunes from a traditional engine....

 

[elasalle]

Got cheeky and sold some Covered Calls. In my larger 401K accounts I was able to manage them by buying and selling others further out.
In my personal account I wasn't able to. Had to sell .05% of my shares(1/2 in personal account) today to buy back the covered calls.
Now I have other half of shares.

If I don't trade Tesla for 30-31 days, I can avoid capital gains with losses today and losses from last year. So I guess thats one way to avoid capital gains.

 

[EV forever]

It's odd that they would do that. I'd think an oil based economy would hold long term investments in anything non-fossil fuel based wherever possible.

A while back @Fact Checking had posted a theory that Elon's $420 tweet was in response to his concern that Saudi's were positioning themselves for a hostile takeover of Tesla. Folks here said it was a conspiracy theory, but there may be truth to that.

Saudi's had taken a 5% stake in Tesla 3Q-2018. This was followed by the $420 going private tweet and all the craziness that occurred. In effect, it also exposed the Saudi's. The coalition that Elon tried to create to take Tesla private did not include the Saudi's. By early 2019 it was obvious that a takeover of Tesla or going private was not going to happen. So then the Saudi's dumped their shares as they wanted control if they were investing.

If that was really the case, I am really glad that they withdrew support. Can you imagine Tesla with interference from the Saudis?

Maybe @Fact Checking could post his theory again?

 

[MC3OZ]

Boy, the comment section under GM's Hummer EV ad on FB is UGLY
Seems their target demographic either hates EV or loves gas.

This is why I wonder if ICE car brands should have just started a new subsidiary that makes EVs under a different brand....

Using classic gas car icons from the past to sell EVs is problematic. For starters nostalgia appeals to people who don't like new and different things, and the message is all mixed up.... it is a mixture of ICE and EV, old and new, and something that suggests something from the past, but is not really that thing...

The Hummer has to be a heavy vehicle with a big battery pack, so expensive and inefficient, or otherwise very limited in range...

So it is a compromised design with a confusing marketing message..... good luck with that.

 

[Silentk]

So I missed the “buy a commemorative share at 420” phase, but really looking forward to the “buy a commemorative share at 2020” phase

 

[Mokuzai]

So, I had a thought on the dip near the end. Last week when I was getting my powerwalls installed I overheard one of the workers mention that a trading day was coming up next week (this week) that allows them to sell their stock. They're only allowed to sell on certain days because they're considered "insiders." No idea what all the rules are around what time of day you can trade or if it could come anywhere near the volume to justify the dip...but I'd image the stock price near $1k would be a very nice and much deserved bonus for many employees.

 

[Unpilot]

Crystal ball is working again.

Looking good so far!

 

[kengchang]

So, I had a thought on the dip near the end. Last week when I was getting my powerwalls installed I overheard one of the workers mention that a trading day was coming up next week (this week) that allows them to sell their stock. They're only allowed to sell on certain days because they're considered "insiders." No idea what all the rules are around what time of day you can trade or if it could come anywhere near the volume to justify the dip...but I'd image the stock price near $1k would be a very nice and much deserved bonus for many employees.

RSU frees up Quarter to Quarter, nothing new

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

To all those hesitant on the Robotaxi in next 2-4 years:

Millions of Tesla vehicles will be on the streets by 2022. Those vehicles all have the hardware that is capable of doing full autonomy. No other auto company has laid this foundation. In this interim, Tesla continues to obtain billions of miles of autopilot data.

One day in 2023, no full autonomy.

*Over the air update happens*

Next day, millions have autonomy capability.

People click "yes" to adding vehicle to Robotaxi network. They make money. Word of mouth spreads. The "yes" clicks and scaling the network goes parabolic.

It's not linear. It is exponential. One day no, next day yes. S curve applies.

Same for the future Tesla energy network. Solar+solar network not connected one day, connected and aggregated the next. S curve. Again app will ask for you to add TeslaEnergy network, tap "yes."

Again it doesn't matter if they have robotaxi up and running soon.

Watch for these service infrastructures being built. When you actually watch and check the blocks, they are building it very quickly. You can measure this. It's not abstract. Compare all other car companies, not even close.

Jonas saying he's talked to all the scientists obviously is not talking to the leading scientists working at Tesla with Elon. It's absurd that anyone can make predictions with people that aren't at the vanguard in operationalizing AI.

Pay attention to the foundation being built by Tesla, not the talking heads on the valueless financial news.

I don't think that's how it's gonna play out though.

More likely Tesla will release what they consider FSD in the next few years. THEN it will take at least another couple of years for it to be approved for driving without somebody in the drivers seat.

Sure Tesla can start their taxinetwork (Uber, Lyft competitor) anytime but until they get full approval someone will have to sit in that seat. And it's not gonna be some bureaucrat at whatever department that has the power to approve it. There will be testing, there will be surveys, there will be discussions in the senate/house, all kinds of delays orchestrated by opponents (just imagine how much any car company without FSD as well as Uber and Lyft will spend to fight it) and in the end it will be decided by politicians, very likely by whoever is the president at the time.

 

[dl003]

The only reason I will go to bed tonight is that its the quickest way to get to tomorrow's open.

 

[EV forever]

RSU frees up Quarter to Quarter, nothing new

Not necessarily. For the company I work at, it is once a year vesting only, with 1/4 vesting every year on anniversary of grant date. Typical vesting dates range from Feb to March. Usually I hold for an year after vesting to qualify as long term capital gains vs. short term.