Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

If I'm reading that right, it sounds like Australia hasn't yet set a date to ban fossil fuel powered vehicles though.....just that they are being encouraged to do so.....is that right?

Hmm, double checking. I might have posted the wrong link, or I misread a different headline.

Going to delete my post until I can confirm if that was correct or if I misread.

 

[StealthP3D]

I survived the 2018s

Oh, I think you will do great if you hold through all the volatility, I'm just saying if it troubles you, you should just sell it. Profits are not worth an uncomfortable life. Volatility affects some people much more than others.

 

[KarenRei]

It does seem like he and Elon are buddies, but it's hard to imagine a CEO of that big of a company taking a VP level positon.

Depends on whether he's ready to retire. Temporary working as a high-level exec at Tesla (and in particular, overseeing a new Gigafactory from start to finish) would not just pay for the executive-level lifestyle he's used to, but would be a great feather to put on his cap to be attractive to future employers desperate to electrify.

I imagine at the very least Elon would call him up and let him know he's welcome at Tesla. It'd be up to him whether he's interested.

 

[AudubonB]

Not always. If the brokerage is using your TSLA shares as collateral for your margin account I don't believe that they pass any of that fee on to you.

While my brokerage "begged" me to sign up for their FPL program, which I finally did, it wasn't because they wanted to borrow my TSLA shares, they haven't touched them.

"Margin account"???? Wasss dat?

Yes, you are absolutely correct.

Margin accounts are lovely.

If you're a brokerage house.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

If true about Herbert Diess, that is unfortunate. He was the only other CEO who seemed truly passionate and driven to move to all electric future.

 

[KarenRei]

Hi-ho, hi-ho....

(Pretty subdued for now, of course!)

 

[azaz]

Investor's day renamed to "Tesla April Company Talk" and to take place at Giga NY

Elon Musk on Twitter

Personal prediction: Giga Texas gets announced here

 

[Chocochip]

Depends on whether he's ready to retire. Temporary working as a high-level exec at Tesla (and in particular, overseeing a new Gigafactory from start to finish) would not just pay for the executive-level lifestyle he's used to, but would be a great feather to put on his cap to be attractive to future employers desperate to electrify.

I imagine at the very least Elon would call him up and let him know he's welcome at Tesla. It'd be up to him whether he's interested.

In a way, it might feel like a "demotion" in the industry from an image perspective, going from CEO of VW (second largest auto manufacturer by volume) to VP of whatever at Tesla, working under Musk.

That being said, if Diess decides to semi-retire, he could become Tesla's Senior Auto Manufacturing Adviser (SAMA?) or something. It's clear he admires Elon and he appreciates the huge effort and determination that took Tesla to where it is now, and he could contribute in a consulting role. This, of course, assuming he doesn't want to remain involved in a more direct way with VW.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Investor's day renamed to "Tesla April Company Talk" and to take place at Giga NY

Elon Musk on Twitter

Personal prediction: Giga Texas gets announced here

this is not battery day though right? I cannot imagine them softening the impact of battery day by lumping it in with promoting solar...

 

[Big Earl]

Investor's day renamed to "Tesla April Company Talk" and to take place at Giga NY

Elon Musk on Twitter

Personal prediction: Giga Texas gets announced here

Is that replacing battery/investor day or in addition to?

 

[KarenRei]

Is that replacing battery/investor day or in addition to?

Yes.

 

[Fact Checking]

I am not a fan of spreading rumors but just received pretty detailed information that has been confirmed from 3 sources Herbert Diess CEO VW Group to leave VW and Blume (CEO Porsche) to take over the seat.

I also heard who takes the CEO role at Porsche and what the reasons are but lets wait if thats just a false rumor or true. To be honest it would be the first time my source tells me something thats not confirmed later.
Alex on Twitter

If true, it almost sounds like a coup. I've always gotten the impression that Diess was almost single-handedly trying to drag an unwilling company kicking and screaming into the future.

Wonder if he's taking the blame for the ID.3 software debacle.

If he actually is being let go, I would SO love to see Tesla hire him to manage Tesla's European operations, and in particular, GF4

A coup it definitely is. If Diess is to be the "fall guy' replacing him with Oliver Blum accomplishes nothing. Both are VAG 'lifers' and have shared responsibilities along the way enough that neither has the ability to change corporate practice because neither has known anything else.

That VW board members were unhappy with Diess was leaked to the Manager Magazin a couple of months ago, which they published in an exclusive article only available to subscribers and not syndicated to English AFAIK - so Diess's fragile position at VW went under the radar I think.

Here's my translation:

Manager Magazin already leaked it a couple of months ago that VW's EV projects are late, and that the VW board is unhappy about Herbert Diess:

Volkswagen AG: Herbert Diess verliert Rückhalt in Konzernspitze

"Volkswagen AG: Herbert Diess verliert Rückhalt in Konzernspitze"

"Als Ende März das Aufsichtsratspräsidium zu einer Krisensitzung zusammenkam, trugen die Arbeitnehmervertreter, angeführt von Osterloh und dem Audi-Kollegen Peter Mosch (47), eine Liste des Diess'schen Debakels vor. Reihenweise verschobene Produktionsanläufe, teure Softwareprobleme und Verzögerungen durch fehlende Zuliefererteile, versprochene, aber nicht eingelöste Synergien. Die Schäden gehen in den Milliardenbereich."

...

"Herbert Diess hat ein Führungsproblem. Zu viele seiner Ideen und Projekte versanden, zu viele Topleute folgen ihm allenfalls widerwillig. Die Volkswagen-Führung sei immer auf einer Linie gewesen, erinnert sich ein anderer Vorstand. Und jetzt, mit Diess? Der Mann lacht nur. Diverse Vorstandskollegen haben Diess gesagt, er dürfe seinen Leuten nicht ständig das Gefühl geben, sie seien Ahnungslose – um sie dann doch wieder allein zu lassen mit ihren Problemen. Indes, es hilft nicht."

"Wird die Lage irgendwo kritisch, setzt Diess oft einen neuen Vorstand ein. Als das Elektroprogramm stockte, schuf er ein neues Vorstandsressort; genauso, als die Softwareprobleme eskalierten. Thomas Ulbrich (53) und Christian Senger (44) bekamen die Jobs, beide glücklos in ihren alten Positionen. Inzwischen herrscht Chaos, insbesondere in der Marke VW. Die Schwierigkeiten beim Golf-Anlauf wie die beim Elektroauto ID belegen das, die Vernetzung wird nicht an die von Teslas Model 3 herankommen. Wichtige Assistenzsysteme werden nicht fertig, das Ergebnisprogramm kommt ebenfalls nicht voran. Mutlosigkeit greift um sich."

...

Aber ein Aufsichtsrat spricht zwei böse Wörter: "letzte Warnung"
​

Google Translate, with small readability corrections:

"Volkswagen AG: Herbert Diess loses support with VW board members"

...

"At the end of March, when [Volkswagen's] Presidential Council of the Supervisory Board convened for a crisis meeting, the employee representatives, led by Osterloh and Audi colleague Peter Mosch (47), presented a list of Diess' debacle: serial production delays, expensive software problems, and delays due to lack of supplier parts. Promised, but not realized synergies. The damage goes into the billions."

...

'"Herbert Diess has a leadership problem, too many of his ideas and projects have collapsed, too many top people follow him at best reluctantly." The Volkswagen leadership was always in line, remembers another board member. "And now, with this?" The man just laughs. Several board colleagues have said Diess, he should not constantly give his people the feeling that they are clueless - but then to leave them alone with their problems. It does not help. "'

"When the situation gets critical, Diess often replaces board members, and when the EV program faltered, he created a new board department, just as the software problems escalated, Thomas Ulbrich (53) and Christian Senger (44) both got the jobs, without luck. Meanwhile, there is chaos, especially in the VW brand. The difficulties in Golf start-up as the ID3 prove that [connectivity] will not match those of Tesla's Model 3. Important assistance systems are not ready, the resulting program is not progressing, despondency is spreading. "

...

One VW board member says two nasty words: "last warning" [to Diess]
​

If these leaks from multiple VW board members are an accurate depiction of the mood within VW leadership then the board is pretty unhappy with Herbert Diess, and the ID3 is his "last chance".

In particular these words of unnamed VW board members was ominous - remember that this happened several month before the "production start" of the ID.3 and the software debacle:

"When the situation gets critical, Diess often replaces board members, and when the EV program faltered, he created a new board department, just as the software problems escalated, Thomas Ulbrich (53) and Christian Senger (44) both got the jobs, without luck. Meanwhile, there is chaos, especially in the VW brand. The difficulties in Golf start-up as the ID3 prove that [connectivity] will not match those of Tesla's Model 3. Important assistance systems are not ready, the resulting program is not progressing, despondency is spreading. "

...

One VW board member says two nasty words: "last warning" [to Diess]​

I strongly suspect the leaker was Blume or a Blume ally.

With the big delay of the ID.3, Diess's fate was sealed. I suspect his recent comparison of VW to Nokia, and the bungled VW takeover talk of Tesla (this is purely my speculation), followed by Tesla surpassing VW's market valuation, didn't help either.

 

[lklundin]

Maybe Diess gets a senior role at Giga Berlin

Seriously, that and the GF4 location could make the Tesla brand palatable to more Germans.

 

[lklundin]

Model 3 has the highest resale value. Also, the Tesla App looks better the more cars you have in it. Hard to go wrong.

OK, I know that my TSLA is doing well when the appearance of my Tesla cars in my app becomes a reason for buying another Tesla.
Not quite there yet, though.

 

[SageBrush]

comparison

This is ~ the VW board that looked the other way or was directly complicit in Dieselgate.
I expect them to continue being what they are.

Now that Diess is (apparently) gone, will VW change the EV strategy ? I find it hard to believe that VW will pivot back to diesel, so what other path do they really have ?

 

[lklundin]

This plot is actually confusing. The vertical axis units are Wh/km, so the axis name should be Inefficiency!

In reality, the unit [Wh/km] is a consumption. Since the unit is an energy per distance, it is basically a force (which could be provided in Newton).

It is in fact the driving force that is required to balance out the friction losses and maintain a constant speed, at the value given on the X-axis. So consumption (or driving force for the purist). An efficiency would typically be a unit-less number in the range from zero to one.

 

[SteveG3]

this is not battery day though right? I cannot imagine them softening the impact of battery day by lumping it in with promoting solar...

perhaps more of an exclamation point in what these battery advancements do for a comprehensive battery/solar replacement of the fossil fuel economy

Ark Invest tidbit: their end of 2024 scenarios, all of them have $0 in for Tesla Energy (“all of them” does indeed include the $15,000 scenario.)* It’s not that they think Tesla Energy does not have value, but, (paraphrasing) they are not focusing on it.

some promotion of the solar roof that is ramping up would not hurt. when asked directly on the last conference call if major builders have signed up for solar roof, Elon et al didn’t exactly give a direct or robust answer.

* From what I’ve seen, Ark’s more bullish scenarios include assumptions I think are far less probable than they do (largely in terms of how fast Tesla will hit vehicle volume and Tesla Network growth numbers).

 

[Bobfitz1]

Tesla all-time has spent around $19 billion.
Tesla short-sellers all-time have lost around $17 billion.
with all the money Tesla shorts have lost shorting Tesla, they could have started up their own revolutionary, globe-spanning car / technology / energy company.

And hired Bob Lutz as CEO. After which, Bob's predictions about EVs would come true.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Seriously, that and the GF4 location could make the Tesla brand palatable to more Germans.

But is Diess the right guy for Tesla? It’s not like great EV things have been achieved at VW with him at the helm. See ID.3 software issues, see E-Tron and Taycan range issues. It may not be his fault, but neither could he prevent them. So does he have the right managerial skills?

And important too: will he be able to work under Elon? Several high profile people from big OEMs were hired by Tesla. Only to fail and leave after a short period of time. It’s a different culture. Tesla has since switched to promoting talent from within. Hiring Diess would be a step back.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Is there anything significant about the $760 price level? We seem to be gravitating around there.