Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jack6591]

Papafox,

My guttural reaction to your post was that you may be overestimating my “long FOF.” That thought caused me to reflect upon “short FOF.” At this stage of my life, I am making my best effort to put aside confirmation bias and discern signal from noise. At 64 that ain’t easy. I’m right and they are wrong. Nevertheless, the seasoning of my intellect, aka wisdom, tells me you’re probably right; and to put my emotions aside.

Since I believe the TSLA battle between longs and shorts will be studied at Wharton’s School of Business for decades and will continue for years; any color you might add to the ebb and flow of the battle lines would be greatly appreciated.

In short, I would like to be better schooled at entry and exit points. Not asking for much, huh? As always, with the greatest respect.

JB Leonard

 

[RobStark]

Stanphyll Capital

Not Stanphyll Capital Inc.

 

[SageBrush]

I very much like the idea of mis-priced options being the catalyst for a positive feedback loop of automated delta hedging that led to last weeks stellar SP jump. Of course it had to be in the right environment: a steady drumbeat of positive future Tesla news and nice quarter on quarter earnings reports, abetted by shorts without any hair left.

Which brings me to a question: if the pre-conditions arise again but the options are rationally priced, could the automated delta-hedging be manipulated by a large options purchase to start the ball rolling ?

 

[sundaymorning]

Rivian and Cybertruck comparison.

Why Rivian might be nervous of Tesla Cybertruck : teslamotors

 

[Causalien]

I was advised that whenever do I anything that incurs a tax hit regardless in my private account - such as rolling spreads - reinvestment should subsequently be done in the private company. So for example, I'd sell the lower spread from my private account, then buy the newer, higher spread through the company.

You are onthe right track.

For us Canadians, the gov is currently cracking down on this. But it still gives us 10% more in tax savings. Not sure about iceland.

 

[SageBrush]

Not Stanphyll Capital Inc.

Funny.

How about TRU (Trees are Us) (or: Trees are You)

 

[TNEVol]

I recommend against it. A few acquaintances of mine have had nasty tax audits after choosing clever names like that. Tax inspectors do NOT have a sense of humor, much less so irony. I hold those to be universal truths.
note: I have been audited in six countries. Never once have any of those auditors displayed any non-robotic traits, and they have all been literalists. Luckily for me I escaped all of them unscathed but have altered every single economic activity to reflect the most boring possible situation. Thus far that has worked.

I recommend something like "Icelandic Reforestation Support Company")

Me too but hey I'm a lawyer and a contributor.

 

[mblakele]

I haven't seen this mentioned yet: apparently Nissan is suspending production of some vehicles in Japan for a couple of days a week, until Chinese logistics are up to speed again.

Hopefully this won't affect Tesla in the coming weeks. If happened, I'd guess it'd be more likely to affect Fremont than Shanghai. That's because Fremont has been actively using up inventory of parts over the extend Lunar New Year break. Hopefully they have enough inventory to stretch.

Nissan to briefly halt production at Fukuoka plant | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Nissan Motor plans to temporarily suspend production at a plant in Japan's southwest amid the outbreak of the new coronavirus.

Nissan manufactures sport utility vehicles bound for overseas as well as passenger cars and others at the plant in Fukuoka Prefecture.

But it has been unable to procure some parts from China due to the new coronavirus outbreak that started in China.

Nissan has decided to halt production at the Fukuoka plant on Friday this week and Monday next week.

This is the first time that auto production in Japan will be affected by problems in supply chains caused by the outbreak.

Many businesses in Beijing, Shanghai and other Chinese cities reopened on Monday following the end of the extended Lunar New Year holiday.

But it will likely take some time for parts makers to resume full-fledged operations.​

 

[Cosmacelf]

That is hilarious. As in, it is so funny that I can't stop reading it. Seriously. I read it once and laughed. Then I went back and read it again and laughed some more. Then started telling my wife and laughing (she humors me).

It is so hilariously bad that a quick read simply doesn't do it justice. The answers are so uniformly clueless that it doesn't even seem like the usual corporate fluff -- its like he genuinely has no clue. At all. Like when asked about "pouches versus prismatic cells" and he answers, "Our future architecture can handle everything. We can flex with the industry." Or, right after that, "we're vertically integrated where understand all that, and how to make it optimal." Its the kind of clueless answer that is just begging for some snark -- except it seems perfect as is. I mean, I'd love to add something snarky about "we understand all that" but, honestly, that's the wording I would use for him. Even the "vertically integrated" line is a hoot. Is this guy a plant? No, not the vegetative kind, I mean he's been implanted to help take down GM from the inside. Microsoft did that with Nokia, maybe the want to get into the car business (j/k).

Oy! How did I miss this gem: "The big boys are jumping in, like Exxon." Does anyone know what he would be talking about there? I don't recall seeing Exxon's name associated with batteries (at least, not in a positive way).

But the closer is fun too. At GM, they "do the big data" and "turn this into an optimized solution." Its lost in that gulf between statements that actually say something and full-on buzzword bingo.

I guess redundant, but it looks to me like he is a manufacturing executive who is accustomed to having multiple levels of management to insulate him from any actual manufacturing and who has essentially zero understanding of batteries. This is how the top is uninformed about reality and then make strategic decisions based on that lack of understanding.

I think the Exxon comment was referring to charging, so I suspect he means some gas stations will get DC chargers, but who knows.

@VValleyEV the "plastic water" comment sounds like a dielectric fluid - basically a fluid that is not electrically conductive, but can be used to conduct heat away. I don't think any EVs currently cool their battery packs with such a fluid, but it seems to be one of the next step technologies that is coming (and yes, Tesla is probably working on this too).

 

[ggr]

That is hilarious. As in, it is so funny that I can't stop reading it. Seriously. I read it once and laughed. Then I went back and read it again and laughed some more. Then started telling my wife and laughing (she humors me).

It is so hilariously bad that a quick read simply doesn't do it justice. The answers are so uniformly clueless that it doesn't even seem like the usual corporate fluff -- its like he genuinely has no clue. At all. Like when asked about "pouches versus prismatic cells" and he answers, "Our future architecture can handle everything. We can flex with the industry." Or, right after that, "we're vertically integrated where understand all that, and how to make it optimal." Its the kind of clueless answer that is just begging for some snark -- except it seems perfect as is. I mean, I'd love to add something snarky about "we understand all that" but, honestly, that's the wording I would use for him. Even the "vertically integrated" line is a hoot. Is this guy a plant? No, not the vegetative kind, I mean he's been implanted to help take down GM from the inside. Microsoft did that with Nokia, maybe the want to get into the car business (j/k).

Oy! How did I miss this gem: "The big boys are jumping in, like Exxon." Does anyone know what he would be talking about there? I don't recall seeing Exxon's name associated with batteries (at least, not in a positive way).

But the closer is fun too. At GM, they "do the big data" and "turn this into an optimized solution." Its lost in that gulf between statements that actually say something and full-on buzzword bingo.

I guess redundant, but it looks to me like he is a manufacturing executive who is accustomed to having multiple levels of management to insulate him from any actual manufacturing and who has essentially zero understanding of batteries. This is how the top is uninformed about reality and then make strategic decisions based on that lack of understanding.



Serious comments? Bueller?

Its hard to take it seriously. I swear I've read articles like this in the Onion.

The kicker for me was lauding the Volt, which they just cancelled with extreme prejudice. Well, less prejudice than the EV1, but still.

 

[UncaNed]

So, I met with a tax advisor today. He recommended starting a private company and doing my stock trading within it, so that it can be done pretax. I think I'm going to take him up on the idea.

What do you think about the name "Grunnsamlegt Skúffufyrirtæki ehf" ("Suspicious Shell Corporation Inc.")?

Could we all just start a church of Elonology? Here in the states, all you need for near total religious tax exemption is a few forms and a church. If the talking-snake-book folks did it, why can't we?

 

[printf42]

FYI, even in China the bears are running out of FUD.

The only FUD they can run on MIC Model 3 is constantly predict the price will be reduced again.

Until I saw this today, it almost gave me heart attack.

The title says, “Tesla model 3 reduced price again, new price as low as 220k RMB”

Then in the article it actually said an “expert” “predicted” it’s “highly likely” the price “could be” reduced in the future.

I double checked Chinese model 3 order page, no the price didn’t change, it’s still 299k RMB.

This article appears in an investment news aggregation site, I could not find the source anywhere.

They turned to bluntly lie in the title, instead of just click baiting.

If this is the best they can come up with, I feel Model 3 is getting unstoppable there.

 

[LJS22]

^^
I expect CNBC to soon break a news scoop that Tesla owns its own battery factory.
In 2023 they might hear about Maxwell. They are beyond pathetic, relying on some analyst talking about $156/kwh pack price when Tesla has already told the world of 2020 products based on ~ $75/kWh retail pack pricing.

It’s funny they mentioned Tesla becoming vertically integrated multiple times today like it’s a new thing. And even made a suggestion that they could make their own battery in the future haha
SomePeopleCallMeTheSpaceCowboy on Twitter
a little clip of them being compared to apple’s vertical integration

 

[EV forever]

Could we all just start a church of Elonology? Here in the states, all you need for near total religious tax exemption is a few forms and a church. If the talking-snake-book folks did it, why can't we?

‘Church of Elonology’ has a nice ring to it. Can I get first dibs on starting the branch in south Orange County? After all, at the rate at which our portfolios are appreciating, we will all need tax shelters soon!

 

[Buckminster]

Cathie talks about whether Tesla can hold onto 17% market share. An alternative view is, can Tesla hold onto 90% of the US EV revenue? Given that eventually EVs will become the market.

 

[Fact Checking]

If a big buyer was accumulating, wouldn't the SP likely have shown more strength during market hours? Especially on the back of such strong macros?

I think it's showing pretty good strength: high volume means the selling gets absorbed. If sellers are giving a discount there's no reason for an accumulator to not accept that discount.

Through what mechanism does a contracted float increase volume? I don't disagree about the float being small-ish at the moment, but I don't understand how that could increase volume.

Contracted float increases price sensitivity, which increases volatility, which increases volume: bigger swings in the price trigger more buying and selling even by otherwise longer timeframe investors.

There's also the increased effect of delta hedging - the feedback loop gets stronger with a smaller float.

Couldn't it just be that TSLA has been under the spotlight lately, and has seen very high volatility, and that therefore more people (and especially traders who love volatility) are looking at TSLA right now

That's certainly part of it, but does it explain 60m, 49m and 40m shares traded on three days with no big news? That's 150 million shares in just three days, larger than the 142m official float, which is significantly overestimated...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Cathie talks about whether Tesla can hold onto 17% market share. An alternative view is, can Tesla hold onto 90% of the US EV revenue? Given that eventually EVs will become the market.

Apple held on to 90% of smartphone profit for many, many years. It was actually kind of hilarious at one point where Apple was 90% of profit, Samsung was 8%, and literally everyone else combined was 2%. That was just before the first waves of Chinese phones started crashing onto Western shores, around 2016 or so.

 

[heltok]

Apple held on to 90% of smartphone profit for many, many years. It was actually kind of hilarious at one point where Apple was 90% of profit, Samsung was 8%, and literally everyone else combined was 2%. That was just before the first waves of Chinese phones started crashing onto Western shores, around 2016 or so.

It was even worse, at one point Apple had 104% of the profit share:
https://www.investors.com/news/tech...rabs-104-of-smartphone-industry-profit-in-q3/

I can see Tesla capturing above 100% of the profits in the car industry in a couple of years.

 

[FrankSG]

I think it's showing pretty good strength: high volume means the selling gets absorbed. If sellers are giving a discount there's no reason for an accumulator to not accept that discount.

Yeah, but the buying got absorbed too. A lot of sellers of some form must've materialized yesterday if a large buyer was able to accumulate shares at 'discount' prices.

That's certainly part of it, but does it explain 60m, 49m and 40m shares traded on three days with no big news? That's 150 million shares in just three days, larger than the 142m official float, which is significantly overestimated...

Agree about last week being much more than that. Seems likely that delta hedging (both on the way up and on the way down) was a huge part of that volume.

 

[Dutchie]

I doubt they'd get enough takers as $1,500. They'd need to offer about $8,000 or more.

I wouldn't sell for $1,500 either. Perhaps $1,500 + X number of Google shares, then I might consider