Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JBRR]

LiveSquawk on Twitter


"Tesla In Talks With CATL To Use Cobalt-Free Batteries In Made Cars - RTRS Citing Sources $TSLA"

 

[mickificki]

That article doesn't exist on Yahoo Finance anymore, but here's the AP original:

Nissan shareholders furious at Ghosn scandal, dismal results

"But hanging over the entire meeting was Nissan’s plummeting fortunes, its reputation tarnished over not only the Ghosn scandal but the shaky way it was handled at the company.

Shareholders said they saw confusion in management.

One argued no one would want to buy a car from a company that looked as disorganized as Nissan. At one point, several shareholders began shouting at each other.

Another shareholder proposed putting a bounty on Ghosn’s head so he could be brought back from Lebanon to stand trial. Japan and Lebanon do not have an extradition treaty.

Ghosn, who has insisted on his innocence, has said he was targeted with trumped up charges because of what he called a conspiracy at Nissan to block a fuller merger with Renault."​

Oh wow, I'm speechless.

Let's put this up as a reminder, Nissan's corporate debt is rated 9 full notches higher than Tesla's (!):

View attachment 512302​

I'm starting to worry about the prospects of Toyota, Nissan at least attempted to transform to EVs, but Toyota is in full denial ...

This might be a Nokia/BlackBerry situation unfolding very quickly, with the difference that traditional OEMs have much lower margins and much higher capital and financing requirements to stay going concerns...

Nokia/BlackBerry was able to go on for years and had several chances to reinvent themselves from their legacy revenues, due to higher margins and much lower capital requirements.

I don't see automakers getting such second chances: once the bankwuptcy word is seriously considered by customers, new car sales might plummet: few people are willing to buy an car (second biggest purchase in the life of most families), if there's legitimate concerns about whether the manufacturer will be around in a few years to honor the warranty.

Traditional OEMs might collapse faster than even I thought, and even many bulls here doubted my "possibly by 2025" prediction.

There will be one benefit though: bigger OEMs collapsing will drive new car buyers to other OEMs, and support their falling sales. Despite that there could still be a tipping point where ICE sales collapse, like in Norway.

I’m out of my element here but is there even a remote chance that the collapse of the auto industry could possibly trigger a global recession?

 

[SpaceCash]

I’m out of my element here but is there even a remote chance that the collapse of the auto industry could possibly trigger a global recession?

I don't believe so but plenty of people will want you to think otherwise

 

[JBRR]

Exclusive: Tesla in talks to use CATL's cobalt-free batteries in China-made cars - sources

 

[samppa]

I'm starting to worry about the prospects of Toyota, Nissan at least attempted to transform to EVs, but Toyota is in full denial ...​

This might be a Nokia/BlackBerry situation unfolding very quickly, with the difference that traditional OEMs have much lower margins and much higher capital and financing requirements to stay going concerns...

Nokia/BlackBerry was able to go on for years and had several chances to reinvent themselves from their legacy revenues, due to higher margins and much lower capital requirements.

I don't see automakers getting such second chances: once the bankwuptcy word is seriously considered by customers, new car sales might plummet: few people are willing to buy an car (second biggest purchase in the life of most families), if there's legitimate concerns about whether the manufacturer will be around in a few years to honor the warranty.

Traditional OEMs might collapse faster than even I thought, and even many bulls here doubted my "possibly by 2025" prediction.

There will be one benefit though: bigger OEMs collapsing will drive new car buyers to other OEMs, and support their falling sales. Despite that there could still be a tipping point where ICE sales collapse, like in Norway.

I can tell from following closely, that chaotic and incompetent management was one big reason to lead to Nokia's fall. Ollila was a frightening CEO, and middle management wouldn't even dare to tell him how bad things were, until they were worse.. he'd get some angry fits at meetings etc..

 

[samppa]

This probably has been discussed here, but things get buried.. so what's the timeline of the recent stock offering?

 

[Tslynk67]

Looking' like a good day to sell some weekly puts and use the proceeds to buy some weekly calls

Edit: absolutely not advice

 

[Fact Checking]

I’m out of my element here but is there even a remote chance that the collapse of the auto industry could possibly trigger a global recession?

The wider automotive sector is I think 15% of the world GDP, so if the collapse is too fast it's a possibility - and countries/regions with large automakers would be affected more.

But note the effect I noted: if a few weaker players fail, the sales will be gladly picked up by Toyota and Volkswagen - and they have some free capacity to utilize, so both revenue and margins would improve.

The nightmare scenario for traditional OEMs is the "Norway tipping point" triggering sooner than expected: people not buying premium ICE cars, at all, because they depreciate way too fast, are banned from entering certain cities, have almost nonexistent used sales market and become socially stigmatizing.

I don't expect that process to accelerate until 2025, but I could be wrong.

 

[cricketman]

I can tell from following closely, that chaotic and incompetent management was one big reason to lead to Nokia's fall. Ollila was a frightening CEO, and middle management wouldn't even dare to tell him how bad things were, until they were worse.. he'd get some angry fits at meetings etc..

I was working as a consultant to Nokia from 2007-2009. We were advising them on people's opinions on the internet on Nokia models vs. their competitors (we were harvesting sentiment from forums such as this). We told them time and time again that consumers wanted one great phone, not 50 slightly different models that specialized in music, or an internet browser or long battery life etc.

We even told them that the dream phone for people had a full capacitive touchscreen and all the features, just like an iPhone!

We were told that we were wrong and their market research segmentation exercise had proven that people fall into distinct demographic user groups who only want the things they are interested in for their phone (based on a statistical exercise of relative importance). Complete nonsense of course, the biased design on any segmentation exercise determines the conclusion that you need to segment. This is bloody obvious!

We soon found ourselves not welcome at Nokia. We weren't invited to talk at meetings and the number of studies we were commissioned for dried up...

 

[mrdoubleb]

The wider automotive sector is I think 15% of the world GDP, so if the collapse is too fast it's a possibility - and countries/regions with large automakers would be affected more.

But note the effect I noted: if a few weaker players fail, the sales will be gladly picked up by Toyota and Volkswagen - and they have some free capacity to utilize, so both revenue and margins would improve.

The nightmare scenario for traditional OEMs is the "Norway tipping point" triggering sooner than expected: people not buying premium ICE cars, at all, because they depreciate way too fast, are banned from entering certain cities, have almost nonexistent used sales market and become socially stigmatizing.

I don't expect that process to accelerate until 2025, but I could be wrong.

But what could be happening and may already be a factor behind global passenger vehicle sales declining for a second year now is people putting off car purchases and waiting. With all this talk about EVs and everyone announcing products shipping "soon", people may want to see and wait if EV prices fall below their own threshold.

In this scenario ICE sales would be declining pretty much across the board while EVs can`t even pick up the lost sales due to lack of production capacity, hitting OEMs from both sides.

And of course the real kicker is the world beyond the ICE brands we all think of. All those suppliers providing millions upon millions of parts for ICE drivetrains.

 

[lascavarian]

But what could be happening and may already be a factor behind global passenger vehicle sales declining for a second year now is people putting off car purchases and waiting. With all this talk about EVs and everyone announcing products shipping "soon", people may want to see and wait if EV prices fall below their own threshold.

In this scenario ICE sales would be declining pretty much across the board while EVs can`t even pick up the lost sales due to lack of production capacity, hitting OEMs from both sides.

And of course the real kicker is the world beyond the ICE brands we all think of. All those suppliers providing millions upon millions of parts for ICE drivetrains.

The thing I wonder about is the collapse of the dealership network. I watch AN stock price. There are a lot of moving pieces that can be used to make a “too big to fail” argument and sucking time and resources out of the national transition to better tech. Think of the impact to banking when millions of auto loans go under water and new loans dry up and all this on top of fossil fuel market going TU. It could get very Nissan-like as I see it.

 

[Highway2Heel]

But what could be happening and may already be a factor behind global passenger vehicle sales declining for a second year now is people putting off car purchases and waiting. With all this talk about EVs and everyone announcing products shipping "soon", people may want to see and wait if EV prices fall below their own threshold.

In this scenario ICE sales would be declining pretty much across the board while EVs can`t even pick up the lost sales due to lack of production capacity, hitting OEMs from both sides.

And of course the real kicker is the world beyond the ICE brands we all think of. All those suppliers providing millions upon millions of parts for ICE drivetrains.

Ride sharing and autonomous vehicles will facilitate the largest redistribution of wealth the world has ever seen. The spoiled, bloated, distended, union-driven waste of time, money and resources (commonly known as the ICE auto industry) will have its trillions of dollars redistributed to the pocketbooks of all the Jimmies, Joes and Janes of the world in the form of tremendous savings in gasoline costs and avoidance of repair and maintenance of vehicles that were designed to pad pockets from prolific...repair and maintenance. This isn’t wealth redistribution through any means other than efficiency, sustainability, etc. Throw in additional savings through improved health and quality of life and....the positive economic and social implications of this domino fall are endless.

 

[lklundin]

Check out this Tesla Model 3 plate LOL

DMV: Tesla plate has G2G

DMV wants the plate back for inappropriate language. I guess 42069 is out of the question.

outline, for the EU:
Outline - Read & annotate without distractions

 

[lascavarian]

I see CNBC has an article tying EM comments on other billionaires. I can only see EM as leading the way forward. Billionaires struggling to remain relevant with PR depts trying to tie them to progress.

Hopefully this ends in a competition that moves things faster.

 

[KarenRei]

Exclusive: Tesla in talks to use CATL's cobalt-free batteries in China-made cars - sources

Good. Most of the world's artisanal cobalt gets laundered through China. Anything made in China that contains cobalt has a significant risk of containing artisanal cobalt (despite whatever the manufacturer says).

Thankfully artisanal cobalt production has dramatically declined this year due to the cobalt price collapse.

 

[avoigt]

Or could it just be that nobody cares about the Porsche Taycan any more?

A few reports about it in Germany but the person posted has taken the video down and I assume its because Porsche did ask him to do so.

 

[Todd Burch]

kinda hard to see TSLA going up with what looks like a 2-3% drawback for the wider market

...Although sometimes we see TSLA green when the wider market is red.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Adam Jonas just raised his base and bull cases for TSLA to $500 and $1200, respectively, while maintaining an underweight rating on the stock. His bear case sits at $220.

Bless his heart. He still doesn’t quite get it.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[mongo]

Adam Jonas just raised his bear and bull cases for TSLA to $500 and $1200, respectively, while maintaining an underweight rating on the stock. Bless his heart. He still doesn’t quite get it.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Correction:
Bear case is $220, base case is $500.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Correction:
Bear case is $220, base case is $500.

Thanks. You’re right. I’ll correct my post.