Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

Good. Most of the world's artisanal cobalt gets laundered through China. Anything made in China that contains cobalt has a significant risk of containing artisanal cobalt (despite whatever the manufacturer says).

Thankfully artisanal cobalt production has dramatically declined this year due to the cobalt price collapse.

So the one thing I don`t get is the talk about lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Cobalt free? Yes. But I expected Tesla to stick with their current chemistry except tweak it further. Also, with Maxwell technology coming down the line, I think one of those old slides talked about that tech getting rid of cobalt as well.

It just strikes me as odd, that they would use a significantly different chemistry for MIC Model 3 than elsewhere.

Could it be that Tesla is thinking about CATL producing Tesla`s own cobalt free chemistry, it`s just the journalists somehow tying this to CATL`s technology? Reuters does not strike me as experts on battery/EV news.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Adam Jonas just raised his base and bull cases for TSLA to $500 and $1200, respectively, while maintaining an underweight rating on the stock. His bear case sits at $220.

Bless his heart. He still doesn’t quite get it.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Any other analyst updates after the secondary offering?

 

[Highway2Heel]

Any other analyst updates after the secondary offering?

I have not seen any (yet) but I love contrasting Jonas’ backward logic versus this forward thinking jewel...nice article.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[mongo]

So the one thing I don`t get is the talk about lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Cobalt free? Yes. But I expected Tesla to stick with their current chemistry except tweak it further. Also, with Maxwell technology coming down the line, I think one of those old slides talked about that tech getting rid of cobalt as well.

It just strikes me as odd, that they would use a significantly different chemistry for MIC Model 3 than elsewhere.

Could it be that Tesla is thinking about CATL producing Tesla`s own cobalt free chemistry, it`s just the journalists somehow tying this to CATL`s technology? Reuters does not strike me as experts on battery/EV news.

Agreed. Typical LiFePO4 cells have lower working voltage (3.2 nominal 3.65 max) and specific energy (160Wh/kg) than current Tesla NCA formulations.
Lithium iron phosphate battery - Wikipedia

May be akin to linking Maxwell's Ultracaps to pack development. Tie together any strings there are.
Thumbtacks And String

 

[KarenRei]

So the one thing I don`t get is the talk about lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Cobalt free? Yes. But I expected Tesla to stick with their current chemistry except tweak it further. Also, with Maxwell technology coming down the line, I think one of those old slides talked about that tech getting rid of cobalt as well.

It just strikes me as odd, that they would use a significantly different chemistry for MIC Model 3 than elsewhere.

Could it be that Tesla is thinking about CATL producing Tesla`s own cobalt free chemistry, it`s just the journalists somehow tying this to CATL`s technology? Reuters does not strike me as experts on battery/EV news.

LFP is really low energy density. Voltage is different, too. I have trouble imagining this happening. Yes, it's possible, and no, I can't rule it out, but... heck, even LMO makes more sense than LFP (and is also cobalt-free).

That said, Maxwell has nothing to do with current contracting for cell supply for GF3. Production lines with new technology do not spring up overnight - even the first one(s) in the US, let alone in China as well. Tesla will terminate its current supply contracts whenever it realistically can, but until then, The Machine must be fed.

 

[Remus]

Remains to be seen, considering the pathetic state of blue origin: longer history, more money, no rocket to orbit till today despite porching an entire team from space X.

He'll probably purposely spend money to prop up Elon's competitors because that's the vindictive kind of person Bezos is and he wants to crush SpaceX and dominate commercial space with Blue Origin. This isn't good news for any of us unfortunately.

 

[jerry33]

I'm in the camp that Tesla should advertise just to stop the media manipulations and get media outlets on the side of Tesla vs trying to destroy it. If advertisement can reduce negative headlines by 50% then it'll be a win in my book.

This is wrong because 1. Tesla would have to pay about double what VW is paying to change the agenda, maybe more. 2. Tesla would be bringing up negative points that non-CNBC viewers probably never heard of, or heard of and forgot. Both would be very detrimental to Tesla.

 

[FrankSG]

Bless his heart. He still doesn’t quite get it.

I think he does get it. JP Morgan has the opportunity to make some big bucks off of TSLA's public offering, but that'll only happen if its clients believe $767 is good value. AJ's new bull case accomplishes exactly that.

 

[jerry33]

We were told that we were wrong and their market research segmentation exercise had proven that people fall into distinct demographic user groups who only want the things they are interested in for their phone (based on a statistical exercise of relative importance). Complete nonsense of course, the biased design on any segmentation exercise determines the conclusion that you need to segment. This is bloody obvious!

Market research generally results in findings that the management who commissioned it wants to hear.

 

[dl003]

When people keep talking about advertising, I'm afraid they are not using first principle. Lets try to free ourselves from the old assumption that advertising is a net benefit to every company out there. I know this is hard but, please, just once:
Let Elon do his things.

 

[mrdoubleb]

That said, Maxwell has nothing to do with current contracting for cell supply for GF3. Production lines with new technology do not spring up overnight - even the first one(s) in the US, let alone in China as well. Tesla will terminate its current supply contracts whenever it realistically can, but until then, The Machine must be fed.

Sure I get that, but my reasoning for Tesla not building out cell manufacturing at GF3, only pack assembly was, that this contract with LG and CATL for cells is nothing but filling the gap for the e.g. next year, until they build out their own next-gen cell line.

Anyway... Battery Investor Day just got even more interesting.

 

[Tslynk67]

Seems that retail investors don't necessarily agree with the earlier bearish pre-market...

 

[Highway2Heel]

$810 in premarket.

 

[Tslynk67]

Adam Jonas just raised his base and bull cases for TSLA to $500 and $1200, respectively, while maintaining an underweight rating on the stock. His bear case sits at $220.

Bless his heart. He still doesn’t quite get it.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

My highlighting - do these cretins not understand that most developed countries are banning ICE starting in 2030? Furthermore, Tesla is historically growing 50% annually, if this trajectory continues, this would represent around 47 million Teslas per year by then (367k x 1.5^10 - amirite?)

The new bull scenario is based on an “aggressive assumption” that Tesla could win 30% of the global electric-vehicle market, Jonas wrote in a report to clients. This would include 4 million car deliveries by 2030 plus the potential for Tesla to supply powertrains, including batteries and electric motors, to other auto manufacturers. In 2019, the company handed over 367,500 vehicles to customers.

 

[dl003]

There's a 70% chance of recession in the next six months, new study from MIT and State Street finds

I would like to see every one of those researchers' stock picks and annualized returns.

 

[winfield100]

When people keep talking about advertising, I'm afraid they are not using first principle. Lets try to free ourselves from the old assumption that advertising is a net benefit to every company out there. I know this is hard but, please, just once:
Let Elon do his things.

OT
Why pay for advertising when EV enthusiasts do these for free?
“Engage”

 

[davecolene0606]

You obviously care about CO2, as do I, as does Bill, and i don't think we differ or disagree.
He is co-funding a moonshot direct air capture tech: How Bill Gates aims to clean up the planet
He obviously approved a plan for Microsoft to go carbon negative: Microsoft Is Going Carbon Negative. What Does That Mean?

I would hate a fellow Tesla fan to fall victim to confirmation bias, thus my attempts to update you on Bill's efforts.
We all live on 1 planet (...still )

What he doesn’t seem to comprehend (along which a huge contingent of Homo sapiens) is that the only way to stop the climate warming to to keep the carbon chemically locked in the hydrocarbon chains were physics put it. Bills efforts should be directed towards discontinuing our practice of breaking those oh so secure carbon chains.

Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[Mkorpal]

Lots of good news over the past few days is going to overcome any negative macro. Looks like a very strong open is coming.

 

[Stretch2727]

I guess this is driving pre-market.

I guess the prediction is now $10 to $1600?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[T@oo]

820. Pedal to the metal. And don't stop before 7k.

Edith: 830.