Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

This is a poorly written blog with an attention seeking headline. The "$100 per KWh" figure does not come from Tesla (he leds with this quote, but its unattributed and set as the 'holy grail' for BEV competitiveness vs. ICE.

Nor is it 'news'. It's redFay buries the led, which was the only news in the entire article, the project name: "Road-Runner". Every single other thing in the entire blog post is either a rehash of his older posts, or clips from other 'social media' like LinkedIn.

The only graphic shown is a rehash of a previous Maxwell slide presented without source or attribution.

Again, redFAy shows he is a click-seeking, do-little-but-posture-alot blogger. Don't give him the time.

This article underdelivers on its Headline.

And why Roadrunner? Because it makes the competition say *beep* *beep* (NSFW)

 

[MP3Mike]

And why Roadrunner? Because it makes the competition say *beep* *beep* (NSFW)

Not to mention because the competition (Coyote) keeps running in to a wall (battery supply) or falling into a hole (efficiency) assuming they don't blow themselves up first (ID.3) while the Road Runner keepings running right on by.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And why Roadrunner? Because it makes the competition say *beep* *beep* (NSFW)

lol, SW style! *meep* *meep*.

EDIT:

The comparisons are too juicy:

• The top-of-the-line Ford F-150 Raptor pickup has a "Coyote V8" engine
• Roadrunners are native to the desert SW of the USA
• Texas is already home to the SpaceX Raptor rocket engine test site (MacGregor)
• The Roadrunner always beats the Coyote (see the WB documentaries for proof)
  • Ford Raptor: $70K
  • Tesla Cybertruck: $70K
  • Performance? 2x
  • Cost/Mile? 1/2
• Ford is 'F'd.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

The slide continues in after hours trading.

Mostly mirroring the Nasdaq futures drop, with roughly the usual correlation.

 

[mongo]

Fred's recent headline: "Tesla asks Model Y buyers to change configuration to get sooner delivery, hinting at high volume"

Reality, Tesla's e-mail says: "If you’d like to take delivery of your Model Y next month, you can adjust your order to the standard five-seat interior, removing the $3,000 seven-seat interior upgrade cost. Contact a Tesla adviser to update your order today."

It was not a request to owners, it was an informational message regarding an option available to them (since changes typically reset all pricing lock ins).

I bring this up because it is on my news feed, likely due to Fred extrapolating a lack of demand from this (not a)request.

 

[Hock1]

If AH was not relevant, then you confused many of us when you initially replied to:

with

What most here don't seem to realize is that many times there are large entities, whose brokers are working all day to accumulate (or sell), who are looking for an average price for the day. It can take the MM some time after the close to report that average number. In addition, I know that when I was a broker there were days when my clients and I were buying/ selling, together. These orders, from multiple accounts, were called "bunched" orders and, here again, it would take time to allocate the average-priced shares to the appropriate accounts.

 

[lafrisbee]

Fred doing some real journalism. Project "roadrunner".

Tesla's secret Roadrunner project: new battery production at $100 per kWh on a massive scale - Electrek

I like the timing of the "leak" as I am i guess long with TSLA...
The chess game of business.

 

[adiggs]

What site do people use to calculate / report on max pain for options?

I think my hair is on fire - I'm considering buying a call or put for Friday expiration that's designed to pay off if the MM's get back to max pain by Friday (given that we're not close to max pain right now). As much for entertainment - if that works, regularly, then ....

 

[elasalle]

time to kick of the Model Y VIN counter folks ...

 

[Curt Renz]

The slide continues in after hours trading.

Mostly mirroring the Nasdaq futures drop, with roughly the usual correlation.

I see no fresh news. Margin calls could be a factor, especially for TSLA.

EDIT: After the close, Microsoft lowered its guidance due to the coronavirus. It appears that Microsoft may be contagious.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What site do people use to calculate / report on max pain for options?

I think my hair is on fire - I'm considering buying a call or put for Friday expiration that's designed to pay off if the MM's get back to max pain by Friday (given that we're not close to max pain right now). As much for entertainment - if that works, regularly, then ....

MaxPain is recalculated here once per day, overnight: (see bottom-right of 3rd graph)

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

Use the 'Date' picklist at the top right of the page to select your Expiry Date (defaults to next expiry).

Note that there is NO HISTORY on this site for Options. Once the page turns over on Friday night around 8 pm EST, that data is gone.

Cheers!

 

[SpaceCash]

This is a poorly written blog with an attention seeking headline. The "$100 per KWh" figure does not come from Tesla (he leds with this quote, but its unattributed and set as the 'holy grail' for BEV competitiveness vs. ICE.

Nor is it 'news'. It's redFay buries the led, which was the only news in the entire article, the project name: "Road-Runner". Every single other thing in the entire blog post is either a rehash of his older posts, or clips from other 'social media' like LinkedIn.

The only graphic shown is a rehash of a previous Maxwell slide presented without source or attribution.

Again, redFAy shows he is a click-seeking, do-little-but-posture-alot blogger. Don't give him the time.

This article underdelivers on its Headline.

Cell level cost =/= pack level cost.

My understanding is that pack level is typically 30% higher.

If Roadrunner is pack level < $100, then it's indeed YUGE

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cell level cost =/= pack level cost.

My understanding is that pack level is typically 30% higher.

If Roadrunner is pack level < $100, then it's indeed YUGE

You missed the point: redFay pulled that $100/KWh number out his azz. No quote. Nothing new. He's actually referring to long-standing EV dogma, and putting it in the led paragraph of his 'news' article while counting on your lazyiness as a reader to not realize its nothing new!

Further, the new Tesla pack will not HAVE separate cells, modules, and packs. There can be no pricing the components separately, except for the raw materials.

The former 'cell' will likely be supplanted by a hollow tube open at both ends, then laser welded to the conductor plate on the bottom of the pack, which also forms the end seal for the electrolyte.

There's almost certainly a new cooling architechture too, but depends greatly on the requirements based on the new chemistry, of which we know very litte, and redFay doesn't even mention.

Wanna save some time/grief? Read redBook instead.

Cheers!

 

[jhm]

It's funny. I was looking at some $TSLAQ tweets and noticed that they too blame MMs for prices they don't like. They feel that the market is being manipulated against them. I guess $TSLA and $TSLAQ folks are not really that different after all.

Ok, time for me to be reminded that from dust I came, and to dust I will return.

 

[Fobble]

I see no fresh news. Margin calls could be a factor, especially for TSLA.

Not sure if it's the exact reason, but Microsoft warns due to CoVID-19

 

[SpaceCash]

Wanna save some time/grief? Read redBook instead.
Cheers!

Psh! I save time by skimming and jumping to conclusions, thank you very much

 

[dc_h]

Virus die in 9 days on surfaces. So just quarantine amazon stuff for 9 days.

My new autoclave foyer is gonna payoff big time!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

If AH was not relevant, then you confused many of us when you initially replied to:

with

Don’t know if you’re being purposely obtuse, but I was obviously referring to the up down up down after hours.

 

[mongo]

You missed the point: redFay pulled that $100/KWh number out his azz. No quote. Nothing new. He's actually referring to long-standing EV dogma, and putting it in the led paragraph of his 'news' article while counting on your lazyiness as a reader to not realize its nothing new!

Further, the new Tesla pack will not HAVE separate cells, modules, and packs. There can be no pricing the components separately, except for the raw materials.

The former 'cell' will likely be supplanted by a hollow tube open at both ends, then laser welded to the conductor plate on the bottom of the pack, which also forms the end seal for the electrolyte.

There's almost certainly a new cooling architechture too, but depends greatly on the requirements based on the new chemistry, of which we know very litte, and redFay doesn't even mention.

Wanna save some time/grief? Read redBook instead.

Cheers!

Elon on $100/kWh at pack level in 2 years. From 2018 shareholder meeting.
$100/kWh Tesla Battery Cells This Year, $100/kWh Tesla Battery Packs In 2020 | CleanTechnica

We think at the cell level probably we can do better than $100/kWh maybe later this year … depending upon [stable] commodity prices…. [W]ith further improvements to the cell chemistry, the production process, and more vertical integration on the cell side, for example, integrating the production of cathode and anode materials at the Gigafactory, and improved design of the module and pack, we think long-term we can get below $100/kWh at the pack level. Which is really the key figure of merit for a car. But long-term meaning definitely less than 2 years

Edit:

(This is getting close to the $100/kWh price point that many industry observers consider to be the “magic number” that will bring EVs to cost parity with legacy vehicles.)

From Tesla's Battery Costs Are Dropping Quickly

BNEF’s 2019 Battery Price Survey, published today at the BNEF Summit in Shanghai, predicts that as cumulative demand passes 2TWh in 2024, prices will fall below $100/kWh. This price is seen as the point around which EVs will start to reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles.

Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up With Market Average At $156/kWh In 2019 | BloombergNEF

 

[thait84]

Do we know how much LG / Samsung charges for their packs? I don't recall reading too much about pricing, just that they can't make enough batteries to satisfy demand.