Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[S3XY]

Just received my notification for March delivery so not just performance models now. It appears that a white interior pushes you down the queue. I thought there would be limited deliveries to the West coast but it seems like it's widespread. Assuming that Model 3 deliveries are not affected, Model Y may have more of an impact on Q1 than I (most of us?) thought.

Not to mention because the competition (Coyote) keeps running in to a wall (battery supply) or falling into a hole (efficiency) assuming they don't blow themselves up first (ID.3) while the Road Runner keepings running right on by.

And they use plain ol' off the shelf Acme parts.

 

[Mike Smith]

This is a poorly written blog with an attention seeking headline. The "$100 per KWh" figure does not come from Tesla (he leds with this quote, but its unattributed and set as the 'holy grail' for BEV competitiveness vs. ICE.

Nor is it 'news'. It's redFay buries the led, which was the only news in the entire article, the project name: "Road-Runner". Every single other thing in the entire blog post is either a rehash of his older posts, or clips from other 'social media' like LinkedIn.

The only graphic shown is a rehash of a previous Maxwell slide presented without source or attribution.

Again, redFAy shows he is a click-seeking, do-little-but-posture-alot blogger. Don't give him the time.

This article underdelivers on its Headline.

I don't think this is completely fair criticism. While there have been many hints that Tesla will be making their own cells this is the first time anyone from Tesla has confirmed it. He says multiple sources have confirmed it so that is indeed newsworthy. Electrek is closely followed by most big investors so this will be very positive for TSLA tomorrow.

 

[LJS22]

Do we know how much LG / Samsung charges for their packs? I don't recall reading too much about pricing, just that they can't make enough batteries to satisfy demand.

It’s estimated the other companies are around $200/kWh. About $50 more than Tesla

 

[lafrisbee]

It's funny. I was looking at some $TSLAQ tweets and noticed that they too blame MMs for prices they don't like. They feel that the market is being manipulated against them. I guess $TSLA and $TSLAQ folks are not really that different after all.

Ok, time for me to be reminded that from dust I came, and to dust I will return.

or the market is a ZERO sum game.

 

[Rotte]

In that coronavirus is going to affect Tesla's stock price whether it's warranted or not, here is good site to monitor the virus:

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[kcveins]

The advantage of Pakistan offers gwadar a deep sea port and having a port close to the Middle East and quick easy access to Africa and Mediterranean is the advantage. Having access to terminus of the CPEC Corredor with road access to interior China is also an advantage. That is the main difference. Nothing is developed in Pakistan it is a blank and dirty slate except for where the Chinese already come in and invested already. India and Pakistan really just need batteries and solar cells and creation of simple cheap micro grids.

That may be true, however, the deep degree of mistrust between the countries is something that cannot be understood to anyone who does not live there. The Indian govt still wants to make sure that when applying for a visa, that your grandparents or great grandparents did not live in the pre-partioned part of India which is now in Pakistan. The thought of a car factory producing cars that would cross country lines is simply not going to happen.

 

[larmor]

That may be true, however, the deep degree of mistrust between the countries is something that cannot be understood to anyone who does not live there. The Indian govt still wants to make sure that when applying for a visa, that your grandparents or great grandparents did not live in the pre-partioned part of India which is now in Pakistan. The thought of a car factory producing cars that would cross country lines is simply not going to happen.

Agreed. As for Pakistan, they really need to get their s-- together and are nowhere near having any real factory come or be built because the government can't get out of the way of itself. So many opportunities missed and continue to be missed due to poor government and poor law enforcement.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think this is completely fair criticism.

Why, because you liked the possibilites for tomorrow? So, did you not read the research provided by @mongo above showing that the following quote was directly lifted from an InsideEV's blog posted just 1 day ago:

"This is getting close to the $100/kWh price point that many industry observers consider to be the “magic number” that will bring EVs to cost parity with legacy vehicles"​

Using a direct quote from a competitors blog without attributution is unethical. Its called "plagerism". How's that on your compete fairness scale? Did you actually do any checking yourself, or are you just expressing your emotional reaction to fair critcism?

If you did, please share your research with the group. TIA.

 

[MC3OZ]

Just some additional thoughts on Model Y production...

The latest leaks out of GF Nevada suggest 8K packs per week, with 1K going to China,...
I'm very sceptical about the 1K to China if that is happening in Q1, it will most probably stop some time in Q2..
So 8K Model 3+Y out of Fremont Q2 & Q3 seems likely.. assuming they don't further increase the rate at GF Nevada...

It is an open question as to whether the casting machine determines the rate of Model Y production...
A German engineer estimated 2 castings per car, at 2 minutes each, so 4 minutes per car.
That gives a weekly run rate of....2,520 Model Ys from a single casting machine..
Obviously they could add an additional machine..

Even though I have nothing to back that up I suspect the rate might be higher closer to 1 minute per casting, or perhaps they can make both ends at the same time... That gives a peak rate closer to 4K-5K Model Ys per week..
Ultimately casting has to make a lot of sense in terms of cost, space and rate.

Going back to the packs a split of 4K Model 3s + 4K Model Ys per week in Q3, would not be a bad result..

The fact that they added another paint shop implies to me they are not stopping there, but it is most likely packs or casting will determine the rate of Model Y production..

(sorry accidentally posted this in the wrong thread earlier, will attempt to delete.)

 

[JRP3]

Further, the new Tesla pack will not HAVE separate cells, modules, and packs. There can be no pricing the components separately, except for the raw materials.

The former 'cell' will likely be supplanted by a hollow tube open at both ends, then laser welded to the conductor plate on the bottom of the pack, which also forms the end seal for the electrolyte.

Another AD flight of fancy?

 

[Mike Smith]

Why, because you liked the possibilites for tomorrow? So, did you not read the research provided by @mongo above showing that the following quote was directly lifted from an InsideEV's blog posted just 1 day ago:

"This is getting close to the $100/kWh price point that many industry observers consider to be the “magic number” that will bring EVs to cost parity with legacy vehicles"​

Using a direct quote from a competitors blog without attributution is unethical. Its called "plagerism". How's that on your compete fairness scale? Did you actually do any checking yourself, or are you just expressing your emotional reaction to fair critcism?

If you did, please share your research with the group. TIA.

I didn't say anything about that, nor is that the main point of the article. I said this is the first time a journalist is claiming to have been told by sources within Tesla that they will be making their own cells. Are you saying this is not accurate or not newsworthy?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Another AD flight of fancy?

Lol. Did you read Tesla's bty patent discussed here in Oct 2019 (need a link?). We'll see soon enough what technology appears.

In the mean time, fancy us with your concept that scales GF1 / Panasonic-style cell production from 35 GWh/yr to 2,000 GWh/yr (6 doublings in 6 years). Looking forward to your ideas.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I didn't say anything about that, nor is that the main point of the article. I said this is the first time a journalist is claiming to have been told by sources within Tesla that they will be making their own cells. Are you saying this is not accurate or not newsworthy?

Tesla has a secret lab trying to build its own battery cells to ...
www.cnbc.com › 2019/06/26 › tesla-secret-lab-building-battery-cells-...

Jun 26, 2019 - Making its own battery cells would also fit with Musk's general ambition to make Tesla as “vertically integrated” as possible, which means ...​

 

[dl003]

My observation: During the trade scare late 2018, SP 500 dropped over 20% in about 3 months. I dont generally time the market but since this is so fresh and comparable, does anyone think we'll see a drop of the same magnitude? The general feeling is people are more unease this time than they were in 2018 but I could be wrong

 

[kengchang]

Permits Hell

F19-0021-B Tesla - South Paint Tool Install
Tool install packing includes installation of chilled water piping, pipe supports, and power to tool panels.

F20-0018-B Tesla - South Paint
South paint sealer supply system complete automation

 

[KarenRei]

In that coronavirus is going to affect Tesla's stock price whether it's warranted or not, here is good site to monitor the virus:

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

That site is "pretty", but terrible from a usefulness standpoint.

 

[JRP3]

In the mean time, fancy us with your concept that scales GF1 / Panasonic-style cell production from 35 GWh/yr to 2,000 GWh/yr (6 doublings in 6 years). Looking forward to your ideas.

That's easy, it won't actually happen.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla has a secret lab trying to build its own battery cells to ...
www.cnbc.com › 2019/06/26 › tesla-secret-lab-building-battery-cells-...

Jun 26, 2019 - Making its own battery cells would also fit with Musk's general ambition to make Tesla as “vertically integrated” as possible, which means ...​

That article only claims they were working on design and prototyping. Nobody was doubting Tesla was working on this. Fred's article says they have completed and tested prototypes they believe are ready for volume production. That's a big step forward, and newsworthy.

 

[MC3OZ]

That article only claims they were working on design and prototyping. Nobody was doubting Tesla was working on this. Fred's article says they have completed and tested prototypes they believe are ready for volume production. That's a big step forward, and newsworthy.

It tallies to some extent with delays to Battery Investor Day.... I always suspected it might include Plaid Model S/X with new battery packs..

Not that it will definitely happen but if it is possible, it is a reason for delay...

Perhaps not the only thing they could be working on which is reason for delay, delays imply to me they are working on something.

Powerpoint is rarely delayed. if it was simply a Powerpoint presentation they could have done it 6 months ago.

 

[KarenRei]

As a reminder, according to Elon, Plaid won't have any longer of a range; its extra pack capacity will be used to offset its increased power requirements.