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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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February was an amazing month for trading Tesla. In prior months Tesla was launching into a whole new trading range and it was not clear how far it would go. So what did we learn in Feburary?

We tested peaks twice. The max was $969. And four days closed above $887. Definitely the market sees potential for prices to go higher, and there is much to be bullish about.

But naturally the market is also concerned about downside risk too. We saw the floor tests at least twice. The minimum price in February was $611. This was in the midst of the whole market massively freaking out over coronavirus. Much digital ink has been spilt here on this. But let's chalk this up as a very useful stress test. It exposed both macro fears as well as fears specific to Tesla. Even on that worst day where we touched $611, Tesla closed at $668.

Nominally this suggests a trading range $670 to $970. Maybe on the low end we could close the gap that was left in late January. This would imply a lower bound of $570. On the high end we see price target around $1070. So with this sort of one year upside potential, I see a ton of Cybertrucks backing up for shares under $670.

So my prognostication is that we will tend to trade in a range of $670 to $970 for the next 6 months. It's pretty healthy for the price to float around in the $700s for awhile as the market gets used to this new valuation for Tesla.

Enjoy the ride!
 
If more people are HODLing and never (..) sell, the float gets smaller.
That would make it easier, because less shares needed, to influence SP.
So, if almost all shareholders dont trade, just hold, it takes just a few shareholders to move
SP down, thereby creating losses (OK, on paper) for those who hold.

What am I missing here?

Don't know... That it might get increasingly risky to sell a share you don't own during what's seen as a buying opportunity to the rest of the market ?
 
I won't give play by play on the GM presentation, but they are making hay of the fact that they are installing 3k EV chargers at GM workplaces around the nation. Yeah guys, come on. That should be obvious, like building a parking lot.

I've started migrating my trading account to TD Ameritrade from RH. TD definitely has a more sophisticated setup, but good lord is it ugly. Why can't I have the best of both worlds? :(
 
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I won't give play by play on the GM presentation, but they are making hay of the fact that they are installing 3k EV chargers at GM workplaces around the nation. Yeah guys, come on. That should be obvious, like building a parking lot.

I've started migrating my trading account to TD Ameritrade from RH. TD definitely has a more sophisticated setup, but good lord is it ugly. Why can't I have the best of both worlds? :(
Wait till you link accounts and find that your information (such as phone number) doesn't carry over, so you have to login and fill in all the information number-of-account times to actually do anything with them--except you can't log in to more than one account at a time. No, you can't do it from the account you linked to, except for it's own items, it's look but don't touch.
 
More Rev/Profit incoming!
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So odd to see a sell-off (well, maybe not with how manipulated TSLA stock seems to be) when GM is basically saying: (i) Tesla has done what we should have done years ago; (ii) Tesla has done it really well; and (iii) we are going to try to get into the EV market in a big way (but, we are way behind). Also, competition is good - backs-up the Tesla thesis, and will likely take away from ICE sales not Tesla EV sales.
 
It doesn't really work that way. The share price is determined by the balance of buyers and sellers, not how many people are holding shares tight. That can only create upward price pressure. Because (presumably) those shares would only become available at a higher price.

But I'm not sure what you are getting at here.

Not sure myself either.
Ever since someone taught me to just buy and hold, I have time left I sometimes use to try to understand the market mechanics. And get confused. Anyway, I get your answer. Comforting. Thanks.
 
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