Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Eugene Ash]

What does everyone think about shorting SPY as an insurance plan in case the whole thing comes crashing down cause of coronavirus? I'm worried about the potential global recession people keep talking about but not enough to sell my TSLA shares. I was thinking if I short the S&P500 it would kind of even things out if everything goes south.

Long term-no. Not even mid-term.
I might have lucked out last week with timing, selling my 310 itm put as I anticipated Fed would drop rates and asset prices would lift. A hunch.
Markets are irrational and you might hurt until they are. And it might take years till then.
@UnknownSoldier - how are your puts faring? What are your thoughts?

 

[StealthP3D]

In Los Angeles many dealers that advertise "discounts" on EVs include Federal and California tax credits, Military discounts, College graduate discounts given by the OEM.

Most of those cars were not in California. Just face it Rob, the Audi E-Tron is a colossal failure by Audi. They simply haven't put in enough development time and money and don't have the expertise to make a decent EV. That's why it's so heavily discounted. It's over-priced for what you get compared to a Tesla.

I wish it were not so as I would like to see EV's proliferate as soon as possible. You can put lipstick on a pig but it's still a pig.

 

[bhtooefr]

I wonder when they adopt that regulation, what the frequency was, because it is technically possible to coordinate way faster, and the rule might had not accounted for computers/hft and might had been a remnant of rotary phone era...

The current "alternative uptick rule" was adopted in 2010.

The original uptick rule was adopted in 1938 and used through 2007, but, to quote the SEC:

Rule 10a-1(a)(1) provided that, subject to certain exceptions, a listed security may be sold short (A) at a price above the price at which the immediately preceding sale was effected (plus tick), or (B) at the last sale price if it is higher than the last different price (zero-plus tick). Short sales were not permitted on minus ticks or zero-minus ticks, subject to narrow exceptions. The operations of these provisions are commonly described as the “tick test” or the “uptick rule”.

That's... different. (I also suspect that's where incorrect information about the current uptick rule applying to previous sale rather than best bid comes from, because it used to be previous sale.)

 

[lklundin]

But AAPL does pay a dividend, and it remains a heavily shorted stock.

When a company pays a dividend they have that amount money less, so the value of the stock drops by that much.

So a short seller that pays the dividend should at the same time see the stock go down by the amount paid - causing the return on their (anti-)investment to be unchanged.

Similarly, when a company announces that they will pay out a given dividend, their stock should go up by that amount (except for pre-existing expectations of such an announcement).

 

[LN1_Casey]

Equivalent in UK is Autotrader.

Just 8 M3s
162 turds

Definitely not selling like hot cakes. Apart from lack of charging network and range, one of their problems is they are not recognisable - easily mixed up with an A4 Avant.
New & Used Cars for Sale - Auto Trader UK

I only saw one from the link--but regardless, I'm surprised there are any. Model 3's are hard enough to find in the states, let alone in the UK which only so recently started taking deliveries.

 

[lklundin]

The incentives that fueled the golf cart type EVs ended, and so did their sales. Nothing to do with Tesla.

The cited YoY drop for February in China is not just for BEV, it is for sales of passenger cars (!),
jeroen blokland on Twitter

That's pretty significant, given that China is the World's largest passenger car market - and from an investment point of view it can impact Tesla (positively) if their competition is suffering.

 

[cricketman]

The cited YoY drop for February in China is not just for BEV, it is for sales of passenger cars (!),
jeroen blokland on Twitter

That's pretty significant, given that China is the World's largest passenger car market - and from an investment point of view it can impact Tesla (positively) if their competition is suffering.

Probably why GM announced that all of a sudden they have 20 EV models ready to go!

The announcement reeks of desperation. They are hoping that when the Q1 figures come out and they (and a number of other big car brands) are on the brink of bankruptcy, GM will be seen as worth saving because they have a foot in the future. It's all smoke and mirrors of course

Hold on to your seats. This could be the beginning of the end!

 

[JBRR]

Bit of macro related reading before market open:

Jacob Rasmussen on Twitter


Jacob Rasmussen on Twitter

 

[AlexS]

I expect Tesla will only deliver a dozen cars later this month on a special delivery event.

Where have you been living in past weeks? There are photos of shipped Y cars on trailers and people were requested to confirm delivery dates between 15th-31st of March around the US, not only in Cali.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Where have you been living in past weeks? There are photos of shipped Y cars on trailers and people were requested to confirm delivery dates between 15th-31st of March around the US, not only in Cali.

Could be for some extensive testing somewhere.
What else should Tesla do with these couple of Model Y on trailers?
Tesla never delivered more than just a bunch of cars during the first deliveries ceremony.

 

[vikings123]

Lots of fleet vehicles showing up in new inventory section for S,3 and X. Is this something that happens every quarter?

 

[Earlian]

I wasn't aware of "Max Pain" before joining this forum.
Now that I am well aware of it, it makes watching the ticker quite boring.
If there is no breaking news, you can pretty much quess where we will end up.
Where did the SP close today? $749.50
Where will the SP close tomorrow? $750.50
Where will the SP close on Friday? $750.00

View attachment 517990

Blatant manipulation, starting in premarket and then a heavy short attack in the first few minutes to drop the price to the desired level, then manage that level during the day.

View attachment 517998

When will this end? I’m so sick of it...

Yeah, it sucks... Others have posited that S&P500 inclusion would provide some defence - might be interesting to follow some other large cap stocks and see if they undergo the same kind of manipulation.

@The Accountant @Lycanthrope @mulder1231

Thanks for pointing out. Maybe we can verify the past activity here.

Any idea, where to find historic Max Pain levels?

Opricot only has the actual ones.
POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST SERIE (QQQ) 20-Mar-20 218 C Price History Has the historic prices of options, but not historic Max Pain

 

[ev-enthusiast]

-5% during premarket.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder if that tax subsidy is still available? I think the zero-emission Cybertruck with its large battery pack might qualify for the heavy vehicle subsidy.

Model X already qualifies for the tax break (>6,000 lbs GVWR)

Model X IRS 100% Deduction “Hummer Loophole” - 2018 Edition | TMC Forum

Tesla Model X 6,768 Lb. GVWR, Qualifies For $25K Business Tax Break | InsideEVs.com

 

[KarenRei]

With four delivery days so far, three this month (plus a small handful of private imports), and despite a difficult start, the Model 3 has now outsold all other electric cars in Iceland this year:

Deliveries in the three days so far in March were 57 - i.e. 19 per day:

If there is no weekend delivery, and *zero* acceleration over the course of the quarter, this would imply 361 deliveries in Q1 (in a country of 364k people). By comparison, Spain (pop: 46,7M) bought 343 in Q4.

It's definitely looking like the reports of between 300 and 500 are correct. Hoping that it'll be more like the latter!

If we go with, say, 400 deliveries, to scale the quarterly per-capita delivery rate to other countries population:

Norway: 5883 (Norway quarterly sales in '19: 7037, 5586, 4087, 2110)
Spain: 51257
US: 359363
China: 1522241

If we were get near 500 deliveries, we could beat Norway's highest-ever per-capita rate. I told you Teslas would sell well here, even with just one store and no Superchargers on the Ring Road yet!

 

[Artful Dodger]

When a company pays a dividend they have that amount money less, so the value of the stock drops by that much.

So a short seller that pays the dividend should at the same time see the stock go down by the amount paid - causing the return on their (anti-)investment to be unchanged.

Similarly, when a company announces that they will pay out a given dividend, their stock should go up by that amount (except for pre-existing expectations of such an announcement).

Wow, you really want this to be true, lol. And are working hard to make it so!

Now redo your analysis with 'leverage' included. Find out how much paying dividends reduces shortzes leverage.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Probably why GM announced that all of a sudden they have 20 EV models the Press isn't allowed to photograph ready to go!

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[ProfTournesol]

Somebody is really getting into troubles if the SP rises above 750.
If I had some billions to spare, I would really screw them today and bump the SP....

What will happen on monday when the brakes are released? (if there is no corona panic)

 

[KarenRei]

FTFY.

Cheers!

It's also worth pointing out that it's only 11 BEV models by 2025 (about 2 per year). It's 20 "electrified vehicles" by 2023, which includes PHEVs, and in some definitions even basic HEVs.

 

[KarenRei]

Somebody is really getting into troubles if the SP rises above 750.
If I had some billions to spare, I would really screw them today and bump the SP....

What will happen on monday when the brakes are released? (if there is no corona panic)

Corona panic will fluctuate wildly from day, based on what the daily headlines are - the balance between "new fear" and "wanting to get a great buy at the bottom". I wouldn't try to predict it.

Sticking with (and loving) my volatility play.