Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Is there a way to determine the number of E-tron's sold by dissatisfied owners at low mileage, versus being new cars listed by dealerships? Or is the fact that they are listed by dealerships a sign of low current demand as well?

Yes. Every car is listed as either "new" or "used".

 

[TNEVol]

I do have some doubts about the current SCOTUS. This one, that SCOTUS would go along with nationalizing private businesses, isn't one of them.

I really hope you are right. IMO John Roberts may control the limits on the presidential power. I hope he is up to the challenge

 

[StealthP3D]

Is there a way to determine the number of E-tron's sold by dissatisfied owners at low mileage, versus being new cars listed by dealerships? Or is the fact that they are listed by dealerships a sign of low current demand as well?

I went to cars.com and did a search. Audi, etron, New, any location = more than 1,000 offered for sale. These are all brand new etrons and there is no way I can see to determine how many more than 1000 there are. But there were only 235 used ones listed. The amazing thing is the new ones are either listed at exactly MSRP or with steep discounts, most often $10,000-$12,000 off MSRP but I saw a few with more, up to $17,000 off MSRP! My educated guess is if they want these off the lot they either need to get lucky with a spur of the moment purchase from someone with more money than brains or they are going to be reducing them by around $12-18K (or more) below MSRP. The fact that some are LISTED at over $17K off MSRP tells me Audi is working with dealers to move these (ie, taking some of the hit themselves). People will pay more for an EV but it has to be a good EV.

MSRP is well into Model S territory and while the Model S is not an SUV/Wagon, it's just a much better car in every other way.

 

[Buckminster]

Or given the > 1,000 e-trons currently listed on cars.com Audi built a dud.

Screen Shot 2020-03-01 At 1.15.49 PM

• EVCollies
• Mar 4, 2020

Equivalent in UK is Autotrader.

Just 8 M3s
162 turds

Definitely not selling like hot cakes. Apart from lack of charging network and range, one of their problems is they are not recognisable - easily mixed up with an A4 Avant.
New & Used Cars for Sale - Auto Trader UK

 

[LJS22]

Our friend Lora wrote a CNBC piece about Tesla including HW 2.5 instead of 3 on some Chinese made cars. So y'all don't have to read it she cites a short seller out of Japan for her reaction, and says the stock was flat and down today after hours because of supply chain issues and GM announcing a 400 mile battery car which is more than the 322 of Tesla's high end model 3...seems like that story is going to have some traction tomorrow. I bet it weighs on us a bit.

Oh and she didn't use Elon Musk's direct response to the issue in her article or mention that he replied

 

[EVFan888]

What does everyone think about shorting SPY as an insurance plan in case the whole thing comes crashing down cause of coronavirus? I'm worried about the potential global recession people keep talking about but not enough to sell my TSLA shares. I was thinking if I short the S&P500 it would kind of even things out if everything goes south.

 

[LJS22]

What does everyone think about shorting SPY as an insurance plan in case the whole thing comes crashing down cause of coronavirus? I'm worried about the potential global recession people keep talking about but not enough to sell my TSLA shares. I was thinking if I short the S&P500 it would kind of even things out if everything goes south.

Depends what your tolerance is. I don't think it's a great idea. There's a lot of power tied to it and if you think they will just watch it collapse you will be in for a surprise. Likely you'll end up yelling at everyone that will listen that the system is corrupt. Nobody can predict what will happen, but you'd be making a dangerous play imo.

 

[Eugene Ash]

I really don't see what you're thinking here. The 650 by SS is an ASK; then the NSS (is a long seller??) sells at the then bid of 645, meaning the SS could have already posted 645.01. Or possibly the NSS sells at various prices from 649.9459 until the bid is driven down to 645. Then the SS can post at 645.01 but it won't trade unless someone bids it up. However with your scenario, that doesn't happen because the long seller steps in and sells into the bid, driving it down to 640.

If instead your NSS is actually buying instead of selling they of course are allowed to buy from the SS's ask.

Short answer: long sellers are allowed to sell into the bid whether there are circuit breakers or not. That can drive the price down. You have to have a net long stock position after the end of the sell to be allowed to do that when the circuit breakers are triggered.

Both are selling. I think that NSS (not shorts, but i can't call them longs) provide low asks with low volume, and SS provides P+$.01 but with huge/large volume which at least caps the price rise. Then if it works, i.e. volume is absorbed, i.e. buyers are satiated for the moment and price starts to creep up, NSS(x) does a sale to a step lower with lower q-ty, and SS provides volume at P2+$.01. This way there is a network of NSSes that provide step downs with low quantity/volume and SS providing volume. It would be interesting to find what is a tact frequency of such orchestration. Large volume would suggest high frequency.

I wonder when they adopt that regulation, what the frequency was, because it is technically possible to coordinate way faster, and the rule might had not accounted for computers/hft and might had been a remnant of rotary phone era...

Switch NSS(x) and SS often enough I'd argue it would satisfy the letter of the uptick regulation with minimal involvement of NSSes (actual shares) and allow quite dramatic spikes down even when it is in effect.

 

[wipster]

I’m checking myself into alcohol rehab tomorrow am and won’t be able to be an idiot here for a month.

If anybody is struggling with alcoholism it is very easy to decide that your life is worth it.

I was 6 months sober then made close to a million on Tesla options starting at $3,000. That isn’t good for somebody like me. It’s too awesome. Feel invincible. Drink. End up at rehab.

Best part is I know. If you’re like me don’t be afraid. Fix it.

Good on you mate, we're on your side and look forward to you returning. It takes courage to admit you have an problem and to take the steps to fix it. Be well Ben.

 

[EVFan888]

Depends what your tolerance is. I don't think it's a great idea. There's a lot of power tied to it and if you think they will just watch it collapse you will be in for a surprise. Likely you'll end up yelling at everyone that will listen that the system is corrupt. Nobody can predict what will happen, but you'd be making a dangerous play imo.

Well SPY usually doesn't move that much (compared to individual stocks) so I don't think I'd be in the hole for too much if it goes up. Plus, if it goes up, usually TSLA goes up 3-4x more. I'd just be hedging against a wider market crash.

How else would you hedge against coronavirus?

 

[Fact Checking]

Our friend Lora wrote a CNBC piece about Tesla including HW 2.5 instead of 3 on some Chinese made cars. So y'all don't have to read it she cites a short seller out of Japan for her reaction, and says the stock was flat and down today after hours because of supply chain issues and GM announcing a 400 mile battery car which is more than the 322 of Tesla's high end model 3...seems like that story is going to have some traction tomorrow. I bet it weighs on us a bit.

Oh and she didn't use Elon Musk's direct response to the issue in her article or mention that he replied

This is old news by now: it was reported and discussed here on TMC two days ago and on Reddit a day ago - and from what I've seen the investor reaction was a justified eye-roll: "many U.S. Model 3 customers got HW 2.5 too, plus a promise from Tesla to upgrade to HW3 for free if they purchase the FSD option - Chinese customers get the same promise, what's the big deal??".

Anyone selling on such a flimsy basis listening to Lora "Jim Chanos BFF" Kolodny really wanted to sell anyway, and Lora Kolodny's well documented series of alleged securities fraud of being the (paid or voluntary) mouthpiece of illegal short-and-distort campaigns won't really tilt the scales one way or another.

Believing notorious Lora "TSLAQ" Kolodny's utterings that Tesla's price action was in connection with post-bankruptcy GM's far future plans for 2025 to match Tesla's battery production capacity from ... 2019, or GM's tacit admission that they are barely able to exceed the Model S's maximum range of 390 miles with a ... twice as large and three times as expensive battery pack also strains credulity.

If it has any lasting effect on TSLA it should probably be bullish: "Is this really the most negative article Lora can come up with??".

 

[StealthP3D]

What does everyone think about shorting SPY as an insurance plan in case the whole thing comes crashing down cause of coronavirus? I'm worried about the potential global recession people keep talking about but not enough to sell my TSLA shares. I was thinking if I short the S&P500 it would kind of even things out if everything goes south.

While anything could happen, I'm not too worried about a global recession at this point. I do think there are some in the pipeline (there always are) but life goes on. People eat, drink, have sex, make babies, move into homes, follow their passions, grow old and die. It all costs money and requires goods and services. The economy has transformed greatly over the last several decades with the biggest difference being the instantaneous transmission of data (and lots of it). The world is more connected and more global today than ever before. And this strengthens the global economy by allowing the efficient application of resources where they are most beneficial.

Recessions are becoming quicker and shallower. Even in a recession, investments that are forward-thinking can do well. Just don't be invested in things that the world is leaving behind. Sure, you might have to wait a year or so longer for your investments to get where they would have been without a recession but that is not a reason to leave a lot of potential money on the table. People with more money than you or I want people to be scared so they can profit from your fear. Warren Buffet did not cycle in and out of his investments based on when he thought a recession was going to happen and he is one of the most successful investors of all time.

Markets go up overall. While they do go down in a minority of years, betting that they will go down in any specific year, trying to time the market, is a sucker's bet. It's not "insurance", it's a "tax" on your investment returns. The best insurance is having good investments.

Remember the old saying, "Live long, and prosper". There is wisdom contained in those words. People have been predicting doom and gloom since the earliest days I can remember. And yet, here we are, life goes on, the boogie man did not come, the economy continues to grow. There really is no good alternative.

My advice, never short the S&P500. It can fly higher and longer than you ever dreamed possible. Especially considering the rate at which productivity continues to grow. Or it could come crashing down tomorrow. But thinking you can predict the market is a fool's game.

 

[RobStark]

I was about to snark that Cybertruck will do to Hummer EV what Model S did to Cadillac ELR.
GM ends output of Cadillac ELR
But I suspect that's wrong.

I suspect that Cybertruck, like Model Y, will ship 6 months ahead of its sandbagged release date, so it will do to Hummer EV what Model S did to Infinity LE -- send it back to the drawing board.
https://www.cars.com/articles/infiniti-cancels-electric-car-plans-1420662986218/

Cadillac ELR was a tarted up Volt at twice the price.

Infiniti LE was going to be a tarted up LEAF at 50% more money.

Hummer EV is not a tarted up Bolt. They have absolutely nothing in common. In the future the only thing in common will be cells.

It will do quite well in its niche. Escalade and other equivalents are limited production because of CAFE standards. Hummer EVs will be a gold mine that aid instead of harm efforts to meet CAFE and other such regulations.

There is a large enough segment of the population that will not buy a cybertruck based on aesthetics alone.

 

[Tslynk67]

Blatant manipulation, starting in premarket and then a heavy short attack in the first few minutes to drop the price to the desired level, then manage that level during the day.

View attachment 517998

When will this end? I’m so sick of it...

Yeah, it sucks... Others have posited that S&P500 inclusion would provide some defence - might be interesting to follow some other large cap stocks and see if they undergo the same kind of manipulation.

 

[StealthP3D]

How else would you hedge against coronavirus?

Limit human contact as much as practical, wash your hands often and well, don't touch surfaces unnecessarily, breathe through your nose, not your mouth and, above all, don't touch your mouth, nose or eyes with your hands unless you have just washed them thoroughly.

Oh, you mean financially? Don't invest in airlines, oil, travel and restaurants. Do invest in leading-edge technology, genetics, etc. And be ready to ride out a major pandemic should it come to pass. Mostly, just don't get too distracted from your long-term goals by fear-mongering. Lord knows we have seen more than our share right here!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Wouldn't be surprised if they're already delivering to non-employees on 3/15.

We've been seeing a couple of Ys parked in normal consumer areas, not actively testing on roads.

Honestly I don't buy this rumor.
It could very well be that an employee tests the Model Y and parks the Model Y at home to continue testing the next day.
I just don't understand why Tesla should handle the Model Y ramp differently than the Model 3 ramp.
I expect Tesla will only deliver a dozen cars later this month on a special delivery event.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hummer EV is not a tarted up Bolt.

Yeah, the Hummer EV is a tarted up Hummer.

I hope GM will rework the whole frame of the Hummer, with much better crash protection, the 2010 model had "acceptable" to "poor" IIHS crash test ratings:

Poor crash protection resulted in ugly frontal crashes like this one:

The strength of the Hummer is basically a marketing myth - its design is a death trap.

(The Cybertruck would probably have neatly lifted that bus up a bit when coming to a stop, without crushing half of the passenger cabin...)

 

[Eugene Ash]

After watching GM's EV Day, the most pressing question I have is: How can these people keep talking about their leadership in EVs while keeping a straight face?

I've been thinking of taking some acting classes, but maybe I should apply for a job at GM instead

Remember that time when marketing trumped engineering? Nearly all titans of the industry went to: bmw with focus groups that want ultimate driving nostrils,
mbz with half-ass eqc moustache,
Honda who took away fun of proper suspension in the name of a few bucks and loosing its following
blatant vw, that now finds itself that software engineers are not just for dodging regulations;
delusional office furniture expert of F, a CEO with clairvoyant vision of mobility and of course
a leather-clad, i want to look cool too steal and bottle thunder, that's why we do a lot of PR

Where would today's grad would work?
Who can stop a focused company with culture of engineering, committed to a meaningful shared mission?

 

[RobStark]

I went to cars.com and did a search. Audi, etron, New, any location = more than 1,000 offered for sale. These are all brand new etrons and there is no way I can see to determine how many more than 1000 there are. But there were only 235 used ones listed. The amazing thing is the new ones are either listed at exactly MSRP or with steep discounts, most often $10,000-$12,000 off MSRP but I saw a few with more, up to $17,000 off MSRP! My educated guess is if they want these off the lot they either need to get lucky with a spur of the moment purchase from someone with more money than brains or they are going to be reducing them by around $12-18K (or more) below MSRP. The fact that some are LISTED at over $17K off MSRP tells me Audi is working with dealers to move these (ie, taking some of the hit themselves). People will pay more for an EV but it has to be a good EV.

MSRP is well into Model S territory and while the Model S is not an SUV/Wagon, it's just a much better car in every other way.

In Los Angeles many dealers that advertise "discounts" on EVs include Federal and California tax credits, Military discounts, College graduate discounts given by the OEM.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Your post is laughable nonsense.

2021-22 Hummer EV has nothing to do with ICE 2010 Hummer .

It is a completely new BEV design from the ground up.

With their cost of r&d track record they will take no shortcuts and of course they will develop a dedicated platform for a low volume niche vehicle.
Like H2 H3 were from ground up too ;-).