Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fobble]

This doesn't make a lot of sense. We would have seen an application from Tesla for a permit to manufacture and/or sell the Performance version, and we didn't. They just received approval for the LR-RWD version today, but no Performance. AFAIK, they only have approval to manufacture and sell the SR+ and the LR-RWD in China so far.

Is it possible that the markings in Chinese characters on the left side of the boot lid are a regulatory requirement for ALL cars sold in China, whether made there or imported?

Tesla did seek permission to build long range M3 in GF3. Does Tesla lump together Performance as long range? (which it is in a sense)
Tesla seeks approval to build longer range Model 3s in China

 

[DrL90]

How long is it going to take the regular press to figure out that if you are not building a battery factory, you are not a serious contender in the world BEV market.

Only Volkswagen and Tesla are doing this right now, am I correct?

Everyone else is buying batteries from some other vendor, and is therefore not developing any tech of its own.

Compare with the ICE business... there may be suppliers for seats, brakes and other parts, but for the most part, companies develop and build their own engines. This is regarded as the special sauce that differentiates the vehicles in each brand.

Companies that buy batteries from LG Chem and so on, will find it impossible to gain a costs or performance edge.

Further, General Motors is growing the South Korean battery industry!!! Doesn't anyone in the U.S. press have a problem with that? It's a great time to be a South Korean battery manufacturer.

Meanwhile, Tesla is manufacturing and assembling as vertically and as completely as they reasonably can. (Sumitomo 18650's for S+X excepted) This will inevitably add long term strength to the company and will be the "moat." Analysts who think the legacy manufacturers have a "moat of experience" seem to be glossing over the fact that Tesla has two massive factories dedicated to building batteries, but the rest of the auto industry has none.

GM Corporate Newsroom - United States - Company

I'm not sure what "customer care and after sales" consists of but they have some type of plant already. In addition to the one planned to be built with LG in Lordstown Ohio.

New battery plant in Lordstown ‘ground zero’ for GM’s electric future, executive says

 

[willow_hiller]

Tesla did seek permission to build long range M3 in GF3. Does Tesla lump together Performance as long range? (which it is in a sense)
Tesla seeks approval to build longer range Model 3s in China

I think it would, yes. Evidently this new approval was required for the heavier vehicle weight. And of course the LR and the Performance weigh roughly the same.

I guess the question would be whether they've set up Giga Shanghai to manufacture the front-drive unit. If not, this could just be the LR RWD.

 

[Nocturnal]

OT (or maybe it's super ON topic), the topic of this thread is broad. If we delete every post that isn't directly linked to TSLA it will severely stifle discussion. I think the current situation is pretty reasonable, where rabbit holes are squelched but every post isn't "TSLA went up .02 cents just now."

GM is back in the game (according to this uncritical piece in Bloomberg): Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

GM Says Its Battery Is the Android-Style Antidote to Tesla’s iPhone
It’s clear the automaker is not giving up in the race to electrification.

I was going to share this.

Surely I'm not the only one that sees this as game over for legacy autos right? Here we have GM, right on the heels of their big EV presentation, being compared to the market follower in the phone industry. Yes Android phones are far more common, but guess who has 80-90% of the profits from the phone industry? Hint, it's not GM/VW...uhh I mean Android.

*Edited for accuracy.*

 

[Zaxxon]

OT (or maybe it's super ON topic), the topic of this thread is broad. If we delete every post that isn't directly linked to TSLA it will severely stifle discussion. I think the current situation is pretty reasonable, where rabbit holes are squelched but every post isn't "TSLA went up .02 cents just now."

I was going to share this.

Surely I'm not the only one that sees this as game over for legacy autos right? Here we have GM, right on the heels of their big EV presentation, conceding the market to Tesla. Yes Android phones are far more common, but guess who has 80-90% of the profits from the phone industry? Hint, it's not GM/VW...uhh I mean Android.

AFAICT, despite the headline, GM didn't actually make the comparison to Android. Which is good, because it's a stupid comparison. Google provides Android as it does because its goal is not to make money selling operating systems (or phones). Its goal is to sell search queries and data access, which it does quite well. There's no analogous profit motive for GM outside of the vehicle sale itself.

 

[Nocturnal]

AFAICT, despite the headline, GM didn't actually make the comparison to Android. Which is good, because it's a stupid comparison. Google provides Android as it does because its goal is not to make money selling operating systems (or phones). Its goal is to sell search queries and data access, which it does quite well. There's no analogous profit motive for GM outside of the vehicle sale itself.

It's not quite that cut and dry, but I'm good with that too (the media making that comparison). You could argue that GM showing off it's autonomous van thing is not very different than an Android phone being used to move Google services or that maintenance and repair income is similar to post sale software purchases for phones.

I'm in such a weird spot because I'm more bullish on Tesla in general, but this GD market might keep pulling it down.

 

[StealthP3D]

One can work out implied MY numbers, though.

Q1: -1,3k (basically: none)
Q2: -0,8k (basically: none)
Q3: 11,4k
Q4: 25k

(Of course, we know that Q4 should not only include MY, but also a small handful of Semis...)

What possible justification could they have for Model Y numbers declining between Q1 and Q2?

OK, I see those are negative numbers. Huh?

 

[KarenRei]

What possible justification could they have for Model Y numbers declining between Q1 and Q2?

OK, I see those are negative numbers. Huh?

For the third time: because not all analysts make predictions for all fields, so the numbers aren't going to add up An example:

Alice: "I predict that Tesla will sell 100k total cars - of them, 15k S/X and 85k Model 3"
Bob: "I predict that Tesla will sell 90k total cars - of them, 11k S/X and 79k Model 3"
Carol: "I predict that Tesla will sell 140k total cars."

Mean prediction:
Total cars: 110k
Total S/X: 13k
Total Model 3: 82,5k

13k + 82,5k = 95,5k, vs. 110k total

If you don't have everyone make all predictions, the numbers won't precisely match.

 

[ninpb]

Alistair Weaver, Edmunds Editor on Carcast podcast.

- model y could be best selling Tesla.
- on Ford mach e: it's all about just getting all the different parts from different suppliers and making it work.

 

[StealthP3D]

For the third time: because not all analysts make predictions for all fields, so the numbers aren't going to add up An example:

Alice: "I predict that Tesla will sell 100k total cars - of them, 15k S/X and 85k Model 3"
Bob: "I predict that Tesla will sell 90k total cars - of them, 11k S/X and 79k Model 3"
Carol: "I predict that Tesla will sell 140k total cars."

Mean prediction:
Total cars: 110k
Total S/X: 13k
Total Model 3: 82,5k

13k + 82,5k = 95,5k, vs. 110k total

If you don't have everyone make all predictions, the numbers won't precisely match.

I do get why the totals might not add up but I guess I'm not seeing how you get ANY Model Y's out of the above numbers. Let alone negative Model Y's. I'm probably just being dense. I've only had two shots of espresso and getting over the Coronavirus common chest cold.

 

[Don TLR]

Executive profits, sure. Shareholder profits, not so much.

Don't forget those Fat Cat Exec's at the UAW, they need Cigars and fancy ones too..

 

[carterm2]

Our Electric Future is No!

Does anyone see the four table legs? Each wheel has a post as well. Not one thing about the display is sincere.

CU "battery".

 

[woodisgood]

Bought a 5/15 $850 call. Definitely don't do that because usually I'm a weathervane that points into the wind.

 

[jhm]

Oil is cratering, down 9%. Brent at $45.

 

[humbaba]

I was reading somewhere a Forbes article yesterday (can't remember where, so many reports on this GM story found it!) that GM claims that, while LG Chem is manufacturing the cells, the NMCA chemistry is proprietary to GM:

The chemistry will be proprietary to GM products but was developed in collaboration with LG Chem. GM and LG are continuing to develop new chemistries with the eventual goal of eliminating both cobalt and nickel entirely.

To be clear, you say "proprietary to GM" but the quote says "proprietary to GM products." My read of that quote is that LG isn't allowed to use the chemistry for non-GM batteries, but that doesn't mean that GM has any ownership of the intellectual property. I'll grant that since IP rights are mostly about restrictions this may be a pretty fine line, but what I get out of it is that GM paid LG to develop the chemistry and that LG owns it (doesn't have to pay GM in order to use it) but can only use it (for now, anyway) for GM products.

One way I could see this distinction being important is in GMs bankruptcy: LG will still clearly own the chemistry and not owe GMs creditors anything.

Put another way, GM is doing a partnership with LG rather than building their own battery plant. This is, as far as I can tell, rather like Tesla's arrangement with Panasonic (even if the details of who owns what are different). Tesla is, of course, in the process of removing their dependency on Panasonic. That doesn't necessarily mean that Tesla and Panasonic won't be friends and Tesla will likely continue to use Panasonic as a supplier (just like they have contracted with other battery manufacturers), but while Tesla is increasing the strength of their position, GM is betraying their half-hearted EV program by not hiring talent and developing the batteries in house.

As I think will become clearer on battery day, Tesla is moving faster than their competition in every way. They are increasing EV manufacturing capacity more quickly, improving their technology more quickly, improving margins more quickly, and so on.

Or, as Elon has said multiple times, what matters is the rate of innovation.

 

[Nocturnal]

Bought a 5/15 $850 call. Definitely don't do that because usually I'm a weathervane that points into the wind.

Just when I was wondering whether or not to bail on my July $800s. Would you mind selling that please?

 

[FreqFlyer]

I was reading somewhere a Forbes article yesterday (can't remember where, so many reports on this GM story found it!) that GM claims that, while LG Chem is manufacturing the cells, the NMCA chemistry is proprietary to GM:

The chemistry will be proprietary to GM products but was developed in collaboration with LG Chem. GM and LG are continuing to develop new chemistries with the eventual goal of eliminating both cobalt and nickel entirely.

Its SOP for manufacturers, you design but have someone else build it cheaper. Isn't Tesla having Panasonic make batteries with Tesla's secrete sauce? Isn't LG making batteries for Tesla in China, and CATL?

 

[Chocochip]

Tesla did seek permission to build long range M3 in GF3. Does Tesla lump together Performance as long range? (which it is in a sense)
Tesla seeks approval to build longer range Model 3s in China

I was under the impression that each version (not only dimensions and weight, but also efficiency rating, max. speed, wheels size, etc.) needs separate approval. I went back through the initial stories on the application for selling MIC LR-RWD, and I can't be sure whether the original info was misinterpreted.

This is the link to the application form, tweeted by @JayinShanghai on 12 Feb.: 企业申报车型公示详情

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

This stock market action is delusional. people are absolutely out of their minds. This virus is nowhere even CLOSE to as dangerous as climate change, yet we continue to drive ICE cars, fly in planes domestically, eat too much meat and leas incredibly destructive lifestyles. But the moment someone wears a hazmat suit on a TV news report, everybody starts stabbing each other over toilet rolls. Its nuts. No wonder teslas stock price is hard to predict, most of the people trading it are idiots!

I'm just holding. I'll try not to look at my stock for the next week, and hope some adults show up to calm things down.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Oil is cratering, down 9%. Brent at $45.

I remember the days when the price of oil would dive and so would the price of TSLA since “cheap gas will be the Tesla killer...”