-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
GM should have just displayed a mockup made of Legos.
Then let Will Arnett destroy it...
I’m probably going to be preaching to the choir with this post.
The level of response by humans to an event is highly associated with how it could affect their daily lives. The closer it hits home and the more one has to lose, the more panicked s/he will be.
For many, it’s not just because they’re just seeing people with hazmat suites on TV. These people know or live close to a case.
Unfortunately, we don’t get the same reaction to things like climate change or pollution because it hasn’t caused a significant change to our daily lives just yet. But, once it starts affecting a greater population or those in charge of making puvlic policy, you’ll definitely see the response as with this virus.
And it’s not just with TSLA, the majority of stocks are behaving similarly.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I said this a few days ago but I'll say it again because I have a pretty high conviction about it.
Tesla will be one of the first to recover and that is ignoring any and all good news in the pipeline. Fear of the Coronavirus has shaken up the markets and many people have rightfully divested themselves of directly impacted industries like airlines, oil, travel, restaurants, car rental, etc. That means there is a lot of investable capital on the sidelines that will be looking for a new home.
Investors will want to re-position themselves into more forward-looking investments. TSLA fits the bill and will find many new buyers as portfolios churn. If this thing drags on we have Q1 numbers to look forward to. I think they will be good enough that people will say "If TSLA can do this well while being so close to the early Coronavirus epicenter, just imagine what they will do without Coronavirus!".
Last edited:
Not even close IMO. It's standard operating procedure for now. I expect some more negative news and/or fear mongering over the weekend.
Bro they haven't even begun TESTING for the virus in the US yet.
Exclusive: The Strongest Evidence Yet That America Is Botching Coronavirus Testing
The US is literally Wuhan on Jan 1st right now. Me? I'm buying more SPY puts.
Barron's - 7 minutes ago: This Is What Consumers Think of Tesla’s Cybertruck and Model Y. It’s Good News.
Excerpt:
“The survey shows 28% of global respondents would likely consider buying Model Y,” wrote UBS analyst Patrick Hummel in a Friday research report. “Which compares to 26% interested in Model 3 back in 2018.”
Hummel is the one responsible for the consumer survey. Almost 10,000 people in six countries were asked about battery-only powered cars.
Interest in China, the world’s largest market for new cars, is even higher. There, 65% of survey respondents said they would consider buying a Model Y. That’s another bit of good news for Tesla.
“18% of U.S. survey respondents would likely consider buying Cybertruck,” said Hummel in his report. “In the head-to-head comparison, the Chevy Silverado and the F-150 would still be preferred over Cybertruck...but Cybertruck is ahead of the RAM 1500.”
Excerpt:
“The survey shows 28% of global respondents would likely consider buying Model Y,” wrote UBS analyst Patrick Hummel in a Friday research report. “Which compares to 26% interested in Model 3 back in 2018.”
Hummel is the one responsible for the consumer survey. Almost 10,000 people in six countries were asked about battery-only powered cars.
Interest in China, the world’s largest market for new cars, is even higher. There, 65% of survey respondents said they would consider buying a Model Y. That’s another bit of good news for Tesla.
“18% of U.S. survey respondents would likely consider buying Cybertruck,” said Hummel in his report. “In the head-to-head comparison, the Chevy Silverado and the F-150 would still be preferred over Cybertruck...but Cybertruck is ahead of the RAM 1500.”
What strike / date? I got burned on some weeklies. It is astonishing how fast you can go from +5k to -20k.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It looks like VW, the parent company, wants to buy out the remaining Audi shareholders.
dc_h
Active Member
I infer from LR and Performance MIC that the ratio of batteries to cars in improving and batteries are not a bottleneck. Good for margins and volume.
Florida is one of those states competing for retirees. For example, they have a zero capital gains rate and a relatively high average age of 42.2 years. They are out front on autonomy presumably as part of their competitive strategy.
The State of Florida, I would guess, sees both the attraction to seniors of staying mobile longer as well as the public safety benefit of reducing the number of accidents in which seniors are involved.
This type of situation is one reason why I’ve been so optimistic about the regulatory side of autonomy. I feel the regulatory pessimists are failing to see just how irresistible the demand for autonomy is going to be.
Further, they may not grasp the relevance of the competition via regulation that occurs between localities, between states/provinces and between nations.
It's not about how worse the virus will be, it's about uncertainty. When the uncertainty is over and we know what we're facing the market will turn (not an advice).
I'm holding my core TSLA shares plus some very profitable NSADAQ, F and AAL puts. I'm considering selling them EOD and turn them into TSLA calls. Or wait till monday...? Hm.
jhm
Well-Known Member
In the next recession, we can expect central banks and governments to pursue monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. That much is typical. But specifically governments and central banks are also looking for was to respond to the climate change. So I would look for monetary easing that is preferential for renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure. I would also look for fiscal stimulus that is more linked to climate. This again means boosting renewable energy, EVs, sustainable infrastructure and more. For example, auto sales are depressed. In the last recession the US had a cash for clunkers program to buy up old cars so as to motivate sales of new cars. If this were replicated again, there would likely be a hook that would require the new vehicle to be a zero or low emissions vehicle.
So it is hard to predict just what climate strings governments and central banks will place on recession interventions, but I do think linkage with climate objectives will be strongly considered.
Tesla is very well positioned to benefits from stimulus and monetary easing. Tesla actually has economically productive uses for cheap capital and can create many jobs in responses. Policy maker will want to direct stimulus in ways that push Tesla to grow faster. This would be true even without linkage to climate policy. But where there is linkage, Tesla will tend to benefit more than other companies.
Does this make Tesla recession proof? No, but it does mean that Tesla stands to be a leading beneficiary of policy response to the next recession. This gives Tesla a relative advantage over many other companies out there.
So it is hard to predict just what climate strings governments and central banks will place on recession interventions, but I do think linkage with climate objectives will be strongly considered.
Tesla is very well positioned to benefits from stimulus and monetary easing. Tesla actually has economically productive uses for cheap capital and can create many jobs in responses. Policy maker will want to direct stimulus in ways that push Tesla to grow faster. This would be true even without linkage to climate policy. But where there is linkage, Tesla will tend to benefit more than other companies.
Does this make Tesla recession proof? No, but it does mean that Tesla stands to be a leading beneficiary of policy response to the next recession. This gives Tesla a relative advantage over many other companies out there.
I'm only up on US monetary policy (that's being generous to myself) but here at least we don't have any more monetary tools to use. Even the FED indicated that the next recession would need to be fixed by fiscal policy.
I think you are right though about the trend toward green energy and the like, both from an investment into growing industries and for climate change mitigation.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Pretty clear path to a green stimulus package based on the Green New Deal(which can be discussed in the Green New Deal thread in the Energy forum). Provided Bernie ends up winning of course.
Once it's brought to the table it'll be watered down and tons more conservative angles will be inserted. Fortunately for Tesla, they benefit regardless. You want to dump ungodly amounts of money into the transition? Fine, Tesla wins(and so do lots of other lazier firms). You want to create a rigid libertarian energy transition framework? All the better, Tesla wins and keeps even more marketshare.
just did market order 10 @$690 got anxious and scrapped my limit order at $650 ... go TSLA
I mean come on people ... Elon and Larry Ellison paid what $726/share at the recent capital raise ... this is a nice discount today
Last edited:
Just like Lidar vs Cam when Elon stated that "Lidar is Doomed", my guess is he'll wait about a year, then tell GM their batteries won't work. I mean, why tell them now? (oh that was mean...)
I want GM to succeed for the benefit of humanity, but first I want to see them squirm with frustration. Maybe see them downsize and no gov't bail out before they put that EV halo on their name.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
