Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[saniflash]

someone working hard to push it down to 700, action totally decoupled from index in last 5mins of trading unbelievable

 

[Earlian]

So, close at $701 today?

Almost, but great call!

 

[JustSaying]

I am setting up a lemonade style stand in front of my house. Toilet paper $.25 per square!

How much for refurbished?

 

[oldTAVguy]

Even if oil were like $0/barrel, ICE vehicles would not be fuel-price competitive with EVs. Gas would still be ~$1.50/gallon just from distribution/refining/etc.

And taxes, don't forget the taxes!

 

[RobStark]

How long is it going to take the regular press to figure out that if you are not building a battery factory, you are not a serious contender in the world BEV market.

Only Volkswagen and Tesla are doing this right now, am I correct?

Everyone else is buying batteries from some other vendor, and is therefore not developing any tech of its own.

Compare with the ICE business... there may be suppliers for seats, brakes and other parts, but for the most part, companies develop and build their own engines. This is regarded as the special sauce that differentiates the vehicles in each brand.

Companies that buy batteries from LG Chem and so on, will find it impossible to gain a costs or performance edge.

Further, General Motors is growing the South Korean battery industry!!! Doesn't anyone in the U.S. press have a problem with that? It's a great time to be a South Korean battery manufacturer.

Meanwhile, Tesla is manufacturing and assembling as vertically and as completely as they reasonably can. (Sumitomo 18650's for S+X excepted) This will inevitably add long term strength to the company and will be the "moat." Analysts who think the legacy manufacturers have a "moat of experience" seem to be glossing over the fact that Tesla has two massive factories dedicated to building batteries, but the rest of the auto industry has none.

GM is building a cell factory in Lordstown OH that is a 50/50 joint venture with LG Chem that will break ground this year and is expected to be ramped up to 30+ GWh by 2025 and contains a proprietary Chemistry to GM according to GM CEO Barra.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 7 minutes ago: This Is What Consumers Think of Tesla’s Cybertruck and Model Y. It’s Good News.

Excerpt:

“The survey shows 28% of global respondents would likely consider buying Model Y,” wrote UBS analyst Patrick Hummel in a Friday research report. “Which compares to 26% interested in Model 3 back in 2018.”

Hummel is the one responsible for the consumer survey. Almost 10,000 people in six countries were asked about battery-only powered cars.

Interest in China, the world’s largest market for new cars, is even higher. There, 65% of survey respondents said they would consider buying a Model Y. That’s another bit of good news for Tesla.

“18% of U.S. survey respondents would likely consider buying Cybertruck,” said Hummel in his report. “In the head-to-head comparison, the Chevy Silverado and the F-150 would still be preferred over Cybertruck...but Cybertruck is ahead of the RAM 1500.”

Interestingly, the survey was conducted by UBS analyst Patrick Hummel. He has always had a Sell rating on TSLA going back to October 2018. His current TSLA price target is $410. Perhaps an upgrade of TSLA will spark a lift of his meager TipRanks ranking: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/patrick-hummel

 

[KarenRei]

Economic Impact of the Coronavirus
I can't quantify this but it's certain many sectors are getting an economic boom with this virus. Consumer Staples represent 70% of GDP. You think those toilet paper factories aren't humming at the moment? Costco has to replenish all that inventory that just flew off their shelves. In fact, instead of the normal re-order quantity, I am sure they will double their order amounts.

I have a friend who has a small business in snacks, his orders in the past 3 weeks have tripled! Wholesalers have told him that retailers are putting in orders for 6 weeks of inventory rather than the normal two weeks. This is causing the wholesaler to stock up and my friend (the manufacturer) has increased his orders to his suppliers...and then the supplier increases their orders to their suppliers and so on and so on. I spoke to colleagues at a Pharma company I used to work with....yep you guessed it, they have enacted their Coronavirus preparedness plans and are working overtime on all manufacturing lines to increase inventory levels. I called another colleague at a Technology Hardware company and they are doing the same.

Overall, I think the impact is still a net negative but for all the industries impacted negatively (travel, entertainment, restaurants,etc), there are many industries in the consumer staples category doing very well.
Let's hope the drag on the economy won't be damaging.

View attachment 518883

And yet Costco stock is down. Welcome to the world of mindless, logic-free panic selling.

 

[aronth5]

I want GM to succeed for the benefit of humanity, but first I want to see them squirm with frustration. Maybe see them downsize and no gov't bail out before they put that EV halo on their name.

What has gotten over looked is the impact on Ford's dealers and ICE dealers in general. Very little good analysis is being done to look 5-10 years in the future to project what the overall industry will look like. The only things you hear from analysts relate to the car makers. Why they don't talk about dealers is surprising but they won't get clicks with those headlines. And not just car makers and dealers but auto part suppliers and the repair industry in general. It's going to be messy not unlike what Amazon has done to the retail industry. Fortunately, Tesla's business model puts it in a good position to weather the industries upheaval that everyone on the forum knows is coming but the average person on the street has no idea about. Another reason to hold onto your Tesla investment.

 

[mrdoubleb]

GM is building a cell factory in Lordstown OH that is a 50/50 joint venture with LG Chem that will break ground this year and is expected to be ramped up to 30+ GWh by 2025 and contains a proprietary Chemistry to GM according to GM CEO Barra.

GM said they plan to build 1M EVs annually by 2025. To support that they are building out 30GWh of battery production capacity. That's 30 kWh per car. They also said their EVs will do 400 miles of EPA range. So options are:

1. GM is bending the laws of physics and will be able to produce 1M EVs per year with 400 miles of range with only 1/3 of what Tesla needs to achieve that (latest Model s with 100 kWh battery). Good for them, Nobel prize is secured.
2. GM is pulling the usual "electrified" stunt, so most of these 1M cars will be hybrids with 10-15 kWh batteries and some percentage will be EVs of which an even smaller percentage will have 100 kWh+ packs and can actually do 400 miles.
3. GM will be sourcing batteries from multiple sources, not just Ohio.
4. This was a marketing event with 10% steak, 90% sizzle and a lot of smoke over the all important details. Things like actual range, price, production dates and numbers of the 10 models they were talking about.

 

[vikings123]

Interestingly, the survey was conducted by UBS analyst Patrick Hummel. He has always had a Sell rating on TSLA going back to October 2018. His current TSLA price target is $410. Perhaps an upgrade of TSLA will spark a lift of his meager TipRanks ranking: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/patrick-hummel

Interesting. It wouldn’t shock me if they upgrade on Monday. This after they maintained their sell rating today with a 420 target.

 

[humbaba]

GM said they plan to build 1M EVs annually by 2025. To support that they are building out 30GWh of battery production capacity. That's 30 kWh per car. They also said their EVs will do 400 miles of EPA range. So options are:

1. GM is bending the laws of physics and will be able to produce 1M EVs per year with 400 miles of range with only 1/3 of what Tesla needs to achieve that (latest Model s with 100 kWh battery). Good for them, Nobel prize is secured.
2. GM is pulling the usual "electrified" stunt, so most of these 1M cars will be hybrids with 10-15 kWh batteries and some percentage will be EVs of which an even smaller percentage will have 100 kWh+ packs and can actually do 400 miles.
3. GM will be sourcing batteries from multiple sources, not just Ohio.
4. This was a marketing event with 10% steak, 90% sizzle and a lot of smoke over the all important details. Things like actual range, price, production dates and numbers of the 10 models they were talking about.

I'll take #2 with a side order of #3.

In no way do I believe GM will be making 1M EVs per year in 2025 (though, for the record, I'd love to be wrong). But if they are even remotely serious about making EVs, even if just for compliance, they will need more than 30GWh annually. And that's assuming they can (and really want to) actually build and scale the plant that fast. Given that legacy makers are used to outsourcing everything I expect GM to drag feet on funding the plant. And they are not likely to match Tesla's execution in any case.

Since GM is aiming for the top of the market (which I think is smarter than VW's attacking from the bottom) they will probably be using 100 kWh to 200 kWh in each vehicle. If the factory is at 50% output by the end of next year that would allow them a maximum of 150k vehicles, and likely closer to 100k (assuming all of the output is devoted to EVs). Personally, I think it will take them another year or two to reach that level but that's really just an uniformed opinion. But surely not even an optimist would put them at greater than 50% by the end of next year.

 

[LJS22]

Elon took away money bags from his twitter handle. Profit not secured anymore! Must restore money bags!

 

[Khamul]

CNBC said Tesla is a non factor now that oil is so low lol this was in response to model y and cybertruck showing strong demand.

edit: the obvious issue with that statement is the CNBC analyst thinks Tesla owners are sacrificing by driving an electric car when in reality we are just driving the best car you can buy. No sacrifice, gas has very little to do with it once you own one

I can't wait for the day when the analysts realize this.

A couple days ago, there was an AMA in r/denmark, with a taxa-driver in Copenhagen. He's driving a model 3, and his company has ordered 50 more, as well as other electric cars (bit unclear on that). He went into details on how much they saved every day compared to the usual mercedes and other cars the taxa-drivers are using. It wasn't a small amount, and repair costs was not included.

It's only a matter of time until everybody realize this. That said, I'm pretty sure the analysts will be the very last group to get it.

 

[Evoforce]

Dang it! Wells didn't get my wire done in time... No shares for me today. Similar to "No soup for you!" On a more positive note...Ain't it good to be alive! Let's ride this dragon!

 

[lklundin]

Even if oil were like $0/barrel, ICE vehicles would not be fuel-price competitive with EVs. Gas would still be ~$1.50/gallon just from distribution/refining/etc.

On top of that in some countries such as Germany ICE fuel is heavily taxed. Using tax + overhead from February, if the actual crude oil price (at the Rotterdam spot market) went to zero, the price at the pump would only drop by 31%...

Zusammensetzung des Benzinpreises in Deutschland im Februar 2020 | Statista

 

[ZeApelido]

I am setting up a lemonade style stand in front of my house. Toilet paper $.25 per square!

"I'm sorry, I don't have a square to spare"



yes I have reused this joke and I will again one day!

 

[AudubonB]

THIS THREAD IS LOCKED SHUT UNTIL ENOUGH VIEWERS HAVE READ AND UNDERSTOOD THAT ANY POST MUST DEAL SPECIFICALLY WITH TESLA.

TRULY PATHETIC PERFORMANCE BY CLOSE TO EVERYONE.

And now, with at least 36 49 71 participants having read this - that's the present # of emoji responses - then you get another chance. Thread re-opened.

Closing the thread - AFTER hours - is the last kind of 4X4 across mules’ noggins to get them to realize that when Mods tell members to stop posting off topic posts, and particularly when appropriate sub-threads have been created just for timely but OFF-TOPIC subjects, then the most recent post - that of the Mod saying to stop it - stays the most recent post for some short period of time.

 

[StealthP3D]

GM is building a cell factory in Lordstown OH that is a 50/50 joint venture with LG Chem that will break ground this year and is expected to be ramped up to 30+ GWh by 2025 and contains a proprietary Chemistry to GM according to GM CEO Barra.

2025 to hit 30 GWh? Here's the problem:

Even if they hit their announced target, that's almost 6 frickin' years...they will be bankrupt before they get to full ramp!

 

[MC3OZ]

2025 to hit 30 GWh? Here's the problem:

Even if they hit their announced target, that's almost 6 frickin' years...they will be bankrupt before they get to full ramp!

Fair chance all other car makers will hold crisis meetings after Battery Investor Day and step up their plans...

Also a fair bet none of them can move as fast as Tesla, who has all the planing in place before Investor Day..

But IMO that is "mission accomplished" in terms of the transport part of the mission, Investor Day will be when the idea of a rapid transition to EVs moves into the public debate... after that, making it happen is just execution...

So Tesla will increasingly be working on the energy side of the transition while they ramp automotive and execute the plan, with a plan and a road map, there is still a lot of hard work to make but happen, but the general direction is set....

I'm not making any predictions about the future for other car makers... but if some step up their efforts after investor Day, and some simply carry on with a BAU approach, those BAU companies are going nowhere fast and that is where they may end up.

if Tesla wasn't holding Investor Day the GM/LG plan looks reasonable, and is a step up from what GM was doing previously...

It is a Taycan type of a plan, aimed at matching what Tesla is currently doing, and perhaps bettering it is a few areas, but ultimately at risk of being of lesser importance, due to the pace of innovation, and the scale of Tesla's ambition.

But GM will come back with more, I hope they do, and they will need to.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I'm holding tight to my shares.
One day soon I will see a Y on my commute to work. Sometime after that, a Tesla will drive by me without a driver.
The way I see it, most of the progress we monitor so closely here has gone into stealth mode for the general public.
The panic around the coronavirus is consuming all the media oxygen.
TSLA is the safest place I can keep my money now.