Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CanadaEV]

Traffic in Seattle area has also decreased dramatically.

Some friends asked me to see Parasite with them. The theatre was completely empty, then two other people came in before the show started. This Hass to be because of COVID-19. Or does nobody like that movie?
We thought it was a pretty good movie.

 

[AudubonB]

What an interesting idea! I’m seriously consider doing the same. Anyone can think of any reason not to do it? As long as TSLA can outperform other car manufacturers plus interest, you make money.

Two points:

First, be supremely careful when it comes to dividend time. While the price ex-dividend might be effectively identical to the pre-dividend price, there is a qualitative difference between your portfolio's balance sheet and the real, hard cash that you as a short-seller must release in order to pay for the dividends of your borrowed shares. And, as we have discussed a number of times, a good number of the automotive companies are paying either handsome or exorbitant dividends.

Second, I for one have an implacable disgust toward short selling; again, something I have shared a number of times over the years of this thread and its antecedents. As my sig-lines long have stated, a short seller is not an investor; rather, he is a speculator. So, while I can hope that share prices of GM or XOM or BTU plummet, I have no interest in placing my chip, so to speak, on that square.

 

[Pras]

1) Cheap gas does nothing for reducing pollution in cities and greenhouse gasses.
2) Even if gas goes to $2/gallon or a bit less, EV's will still have a big cost of ownership advantage with their higher resale and lack of regular maintenance.
3) Less than 2% of all EV sales are driven primarily by the fact that electricity was typically less than gas.
4) Yes, people know greedy oil companies will only do this for long enough to put higher-cost producers out of business. Then it will be back to business as usual. This is about getting people to spend more on gas (on average, over time), not less.

Agree. Most likely the shale companies will go out of business which is a good thing. EVs are getting popular because they are fun cars to drive and do not pollute.

 

[TNEVol]

Typically yes, but since this oil plummet coincides with coronavirus it is believed that people are using less oil globally and trade will also take a hit. This will add to the glut and do little to improve trade as coronavirus continues to dominate headlines. Also many countries rely on oil, I think South America will only further be damaged by this. Russia wants US shale gone, so I think they are ok with this short term.

It will be real for the consumer as gas prices are seen at around $1 per gallon. There could be a huge bounce if the virus is only seasonal and Summer kicks in with cheap transportation, renewed optimism, and companies returning to normal production.

My understanding is that refinery plus transportation costs are about $1.50 per gallon and refineries are in serious financial trouble. Gas doesn't look to me to go to $1 per gallon.

 

[dha]

While the precautions to slow the spread of the Coronavirus will cost the overall economy, it's very unlikely to put it into a lasting recession. The bounce back will be hard and fast. People are not spending money at previous levels, it's building up in their bank accounts. That's because travel, eating and drinking out, shopping for clothing and durable goods, etc. are all greatly reduced. The money has not been destroyed like it was in the great recession.

Money will indeed be destroyed. Many companies operate with slim margins and too much debt to withstand more than a quarter of sharply and unexpectedly reduced demand. They may default. Many people may lose their jobs. That scenario is no less likely as a swift and full recovery over the next few months. The risks are real and could cascade.

Now add an oil price shock, rock-bottom interest rates and a Presidential election on top of that. These are highly uncertain times.

 

[dw4ngg]

Money will indeed be destroyed. Many companies operate with slim margins and too much debt to withstand more than a quarter of sharply and unexpectedly reduced demand. They may default. Many people may lose their jobs. That scenario is no less likely as a swift and full recovery over the next few months. The risks are real. These are highly uncertain times.

Reality doesn’t cope well with hope. We may have some market halts tomorrow at 7% and (but hopefully not) 13% drops tmrw. Some will take advantage of drops and adapt and profit. Others will argue the long term nature of stocks and how profiting off market plunges is unethical or unneeded. Neither is wrong. I’m going to try and make money on it though...

 

[Carl Raymond]

Sorry if already posted (my ignore list has grown v long in recent weeks).

Interesting twitter thread about how CATL is tracking TSLA. Suggestions of Tesla buying them.

Twitter

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Agree. Most likely the shale companies will go out of business which is a good thing. EVs are getting popular because they are fun cars to drive and do not pollute.

Shale is done and a lot of other US supply is no longer profitable. We're likely going from 13M barrels of supply last week to something South of 10.

From an environmental standpoint that's a very good thing. Saudi supple has a much lower carbon footprint.

Oil is basically dead. The last vestige of cooperation has now broken up and though they think they'll get back together, they really won't.

This is why I was ok with Hillary stealing the primary, I thought she'd handle the coming chaos better than anyone else. It's gonna be wild. Saudi Arabia will likely not exist by the time we have 2024 elections.

 

[StealthP3D]

Money will indeed be destroyed. Many companies operate with slim margins and too much debt to withstand more than a quarter of sharply and unexpectedly reduced demand. They may default. Many people may lose their jobs. That scenario is no less likely as a swift and full recovery over the next few months. The risks are real and could cascade.

Now add an oil price shock, rock-bottom interest rates and a Presidential election on top of that. These are highly uncertain times.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt. I know them well.

Yes, some money will be destroyed as marginal businesses and oil frackers fold up shop. This is not bad, it's like a good house-cleaning. The weak die off in a pandemic too. These are immutable laws of the world and are part of the cycle of life. In the business world, cleaning out the weakest, most marginal businesses is a good thing. But it will not destroy huge amounts of money in a wide swath as was done during the great recession. And TSLA is not in a weak position, they will come out stronger than ever.

 

[dha]

And TSLA is not in a weak position, they will come out stronger than ever.

I have no doubt that TSLA will survive and thrive in the long term. But my impression was that the point of this forum is to discuss the many factors that might influence TSLA share price in the short, medium and long term. And to use those insights to make money. The macro situation is a major part of that puzzle.

It is not always smart to buy. It is not always smart to hold. The permabull mindset will cost a lot of people a lot of money. It cost me a lot of money in my earlier experiences trading TSLA.

 

[sundaymorning]

A tiny but actual data-point is that at the end of today's (!) trading session at the small, German market maker Lang & Schwarz, the bid - ask for TSLA was:
604.1 - 608.2 (€)
- with most recent trade (8 shares...) at 608.1€,

Tesla Inc. Aktie | Aktienkurs | Chart | A1CX3T | US88160R1014

608€ would be $694 US, being that futures are down pretty hard the price you’ve quoted might be for last Friday’s closing?

 

[MC3OZ]

Shale is done and a lot of other US supply is no longer profitable. We're likely going from 13M barrels of supply last week to something South of 10.

From an environmental standpoint that's a very good thing. Saudi supple has a much lower carbon footprint.

Oil is basically dead. The last vestige of cooperation has now broken up and though they think they'll get back together, they really won't.

This is why I was ok with Hillary stealing the primary, I thought she'd handle the coming chaos better than anyone else. It's gonna be wild. Saudi Arabia will likely not exist by the time we have 2024 elections.

I'm not sure about the future of Saudi Arabia, but oil money is propping up bad governments in Saudi Arabia and Russia.

I still see Tesla Battery Day as a likely accelerator of the shift to EVs and a likely accelerator of the decline of oil.

The virus is just bringing some changes forward a new years, mainly the closing of a lot of US oil. That is a positive for Tesla, all car buyers will know where the imported oil comes from, and the nature of the governments it is propping up..

 

[sundaymorning]

Adam Jonas said:
(Aug 2018) Waymo is worth $175B and Tesla is worth $35B

In reality:
(Mar 2020) Waymo is worth $35B and Tesla is worth $150B

People pay him money for this.

Maybe he misread the report given to him by his intern, and there was a typo that somehow meant Tesla was worth “waymore” and was read as Waymo. Let’s not be too harsh on AJ, a person in his position makes these sorts of miscalculations all the time, that’s why they’re still working for someone instead of comfortably sitting at home trading TSLA shares like us.

 

[SMAlset]

Good links, but isn't this the video?

Yes!

Note that dropbox only shows the first 15-min unless you download the file, or add it to your dropbox. The full video is about 1-hr.

Thank you so much, we’re both sitting down to watch.

 

[MC3OZ]

I have no doubt that TSLA will survive and thrive in the long term. But my impression was that the point of this forum is to discuss the many factors that might influence TSLA share price in the short, medium and long term. And to use those insights to make money. The macro situation is a major part of that puzzle.

It is not always smart to buy. It is not always smart to hold. The permabull mindset will cost a lot of people a lot of money. It cost me a lot of money in my earlier experiences trading TSLA.

People do need to manage short term risk, everyone should know the macro situation isn't fully played out and short to medium term is hard to predict at present.

For the long term, I'm entirely unconcerned..

 

[Mike Smith]

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Sorry if already posted (my ignore list has grown v long in recent weeks).

Interesting twitter thread about how CATL is tracking TSLA. Suggestions of Tesla buying them.

Twitter

CATL market cap is $44B so it would have to be all equity. It would certainly explain why China is being so nice to Tesla - they'd own over a quarter of the combined company.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have no doubt that TSLA will survive and thrive in the long term. But my impression was that the point of this forum is to discuss the many factors that might influence TSLA share price in the short, medium and long term. And to use those insights to make money. The macro situation is a major part of that puzzle.

If you want to become even more confused, but perhaps a little more enlightened as well, then I recommend you read this:

The Fallacy of Market Prediction | Macro Ops

This does a good job of explaining why those who think they know everything and can trade around a chaotic market are mostly fooling themselves. Why the human brain is not suited to this and did not evolve to deal with it. And why it wouldn't work, even if the brain was well suited to it. He does make an exception for very short-term trading using large amounts of data to inform the trades. But I don't think that is what you are talking about here.

Read and learn from wiser, more experienced people.

 

[StealthP3D]

People do need to manage short term risk, everyone should know the macro situation isn't fully played out and short to medium term is hard to predict at present.

For the long term, I'm entirely unconcerned..

While I agreed with your post, the fact remains that I have zero short-term risk to manage:

1) I am only long
2) I am not on margin
3) I am not playing with the money I need in the short-term

In other words, I don't need to do anything at all to manage short-term risk. At best, I am shopping for deals.

 

[dha]

While I agreed with your post, the fact remains that I have zero short-term risk to manage:

1) I am only long
2) I am not on margin
3) I am not playing with the money I need in the short-term

In other words, I don't need to do anything at all to manage short-term risk. At best, I am shopping for deals.

Paper losses are still losses.

Holding shares indefinitely without regard to what is happening in the world is a valid strategy. Probably the optimal one for mental health. But it begs the question of why such an investor would spend time on an active trader forum.

 

[Fobble]

Paper losses are still losses.

Holding shares indefinitely without regard to what is happening in the world is a valid strategy. Probably the optimal one for mental health. But it begs the question of why such an investor would spend time on an active trader forum.

I don't realize this is an active trader forum. Is it? The thread header seems to indicate it's an "investment" forum. Are you sure you are on the right thread?