Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

OT:

Presumably finishing this OT thread: In a response to someone responding to me, Musk confirmed that the hopper will never have a perfect mirror look to it, but the final Starship will:

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

In the real world, it will never achieve that sort of perfect-mirror look that you get from CG renderings. Look at how cheap the test vehicle looks. It'll look better once it's pressurized, but never like the renderings. And there's a good chance that it will crash or explode.

Here's what it actually looks like:

The top doesn't even match the bottom - the top has a "wrinkled mirror" finish while the bottom is matte and grimy. Initially people thought SpaceX was building a water tower because they couldn't believe that that thing was actually supposed to be a rocket.

Don't expect any sort of "quality dividends" to rub off on Tesla from that thing.

OMFG, look at those panel gaps!

 

[winfield100]

Market Action

What I find interesting about the price movement this Friday:

Could this be a weak first signal that shorts are heading to the exit in a sorted manner?
.

Elephants stampeding for the exits it seems
^^
What’s the word in Icelandic for when an ice dam breaks and floods 100x suddenly
That’s the scenario for shorts
^^

 

[Tslynk67]

The Bloomberg tracker is a fraud. Analysts and armchair investors point to the Bloomberg estimate and the reported prior accuracy and post bearish estimates. The estimate is really low just up to Tesla's announcement and then revised up the day of to match. Then they claim that they were right all along. If you look at the current page it looks like their model is spot on every time. However, days before the announcement their estimate was way off. I don't know how Bloomberg can condone this kind of activity. Just check reddit or other forums for the estimates prior. They did the same thing in Q3.

From Reddit

level 2
Bartek2858

1 point·6 days ago



What do you think about Bloomberg Tracker?

Bloomberg estimates ~53500 Model 3 production in Q4. Almost the same as in Q3. Their prediction from 4th December for Q4 was ~60k.

If that ~53k is true then it differs a lot from other predictions.

PS. Bloomberg messed up with Q3 data right after releasing official numbers. They were hugely wrong on daily production but they changed it backwards.

level 3
Teslike

1 point·6 days ago

My data also suggests less than 53K production for Q4. I use a few different methods and they change between 45,800-53,500. I'm trying to decide on a final estimate.

level 4
Bartek2858

6 points·5 days ago

Bloomberg did that again. They messed up with tracker again backwards changing their estimates to ~61k (8k difference).

Now there is no evidence that they were estimating much lower values (daily and quarterly) for months.

They are cheating like VW.
-------------------------


and then today Bloomberg has on their site:


Tesla production Bloomberg estimate Difference
2018 Q1 9,766 9,285 -5%
2018 Q2 28,578 27,957 -2%
2018 Q3 53,239 53,457 +0.4%
2018 Q4 61,394 61,113 -0.5%
Source: Tesla, Bloomberg

And then they claim a "miss" from Tesla, LOL!

 

[KarenRei]

Elephants stampeding for the exits it seems
^^
What’s the word in Icelandic for when an ice dam breaks and floods 100x suddenly
That’s the scenario for shorts
^^

Jökulhlaup (YUH-kihl-HLOYP). Lit. "Glacier Run". We have the biggest and most frequent ones on the planet; some of them can be several times higher flow rate than the flood stage of the Amazon River. It's one of the few English words taken directly from modern Icelandic (albeit a word only ever used by vulcanologists, geologists, etc )

"TSLA verður eins og jökulhlaup hjá skortseljurunum" - TSLA will be like a glacial outburst flood to the short sellers

 

[EVNow]

What evidence is there of this? Beyond anecdotal "my cousin" stories.

Millennials have never heard of CR ?

 

[Fact Checking]

The Bloomberg tracker is a fraud. Analysts and armchair investors point to the Bloomberg estimate and the reported prior accuracy and post bearish estimates. The estimate is really low just up to Tesla's announcement and then revised up the day of to match. Then they claim that they were right all along.

I can confirm that: the day before the deliveries report, which was already in 2019, they still had ~54k as an estimate. Here's the two screenshots that Carsonight took of the Bloomberg tracker on January the 2nd (the day of the Q4 production & deliveries report) before and after the 'correction' Bloomberg performed on the day of the delivery report:

Bloomberg's 'estimate' jumped from 147k to 155k on the day of the deliveries. The day the two screenshots were taken can be seen in the graph (1/2/19), the local time is on the top of the picture, in Carsonnight's time zone, PST.

What makes their deceit harder to detect is that they don't specifically print their quarterly prediction (!), they print only the absolute number of Model 3's made so far. 147k corresponds to Q4 production of ~53k, 155k corresponds to Q4 production of 61k.

We need is a Bloomberg tracker tracker, to better document their fraud, which notes their prediction for the quarter on a daily basis and creates a verifiable track record. Are there snapshots of the Bloomberg tracker in the Wayback Machine perhaps?

 

[KarenRei]

I can confirm that: the day before the deliveries report, which was already in 2019, they still had ~54k as an estimate. Here's the two screenshots that Carsonight took of the Bloomberg tracker on January the 2nd (the day of the Q4 production & deliveries report) before and after the 'correction' Bloomberg performed on the day of the delivery report:

Bloomberg's 'estimate' jumped from 147k to 155k on the day of the deliveries. The day the two screenshots were taken can be seen in the graph (1/2/19), the local time is on the top of the picture, in Carsonnight's time zone, PST.

What makes their deceit harder to detect is that they don't specifically print their quarterly prediction (!), they print only the absolute number of Model 3's made so far. 147k corresponds to Q4 production of ~53k, 155k corresponds to Q4 production of 61k.

We need is a Bloomberg tracker tracker, to better document their fraud, which notes their prediction for the quarter on a daily basis and creates a verifiable track record. Are there snapshots of the Bloomberg tracker in the Wayback Machine perhaps?

You can find lots of screenshots people have taken on images.google.com.

 

[brian45011]

That's the impression I got too - and it's supported by the timing: Doug Fields quit right after the Model 3 line reached 5,000/week performance.

I.e. he waited until the manufacturing project he started was brought to completion and quit voluntarily. Elon tends to fire people without waiting too much, like he fired the exec responsible for the non-working Model 3 battery pack assembly lines in 2017.

Doug Fields might also have gotten an irresistible offer from Apple - Tesla executives are highly sought.

He never returned from a leave of absence in early May. Tesla’s Senior VP of engineering Doug Field takes a leave of absence

 

[schonelucht]

Another tidbit of information is that the warehouse is currently paying 3.9% (Libor + margin). Current 1 month libor is c.2.5% meaning Tesla pay a margin of c.1.4% on their drawn funds. My guess is that Tesla would hedge their fixed rate lease payments back to Libor, however I do not know what rate that would be at.

I don't understand why Tesla decided to close the old warehouse which was at a lower interest (1 to 1.2% premium on LIBOR) instead of just amending the existing one? Or was that not a Tesla decision. So why did it then agree? What better term did it get in exchange for the interest increase?

 

[Joe F]

Jökulhlaup (YUH-kihl-HLOYP).

"TSLA verður eins og jökulhlaup hjá skortseljurunum" - TSLA will be like a glacial outburst flood to the short sellers

That’s easy for you to say!

 

[KarenRei]

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

 

[EVMeister]

Millennials have never heard of CR ?

I had never heard of it before it was mentioned here. Dunno if that's because I'm millenial or British or what.

 

[NicoV]

Does this include commercial leasing? I thought that was done separately and could be a high percentage of total orders.

This is from people ordering by themselves AFAIK. No idea if lease companies would be treated differently.

 

[KarenRei]

Wow, another response from Elon to me:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Doesn't clarify how they plan to make the final product, but still, very interesting stuff

 

[pz1975]

Wow, another response from Elon to me:

Elon Musk on Twitter

View attachment 366446

Doesn't clarify how they plan to make the final product, but still, very interesting stuff

Now that you have his ear, ask him some interesting Tesla-related questions!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes. I played with the wayback machine (now known as archive.org) a bit.

The Bloomberg Tracker 'retrofits' their predictions after the previous quarterly P&D report is released. DISQUS commenter carsonight posted this 'BEFORE' screenshot which I reposted here on Wednesday.

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

This is not "evidence of PGI"; Panel-Gap-Indifference; but I found it slightly interesting.
The Millennial Car Buyer and How to Sell to Them

Snippets...

• More than half of Millennials said they would buy an autonomous vehicle, with almost 75 percent saying they would be comfortable having artificial intelligence system drive their vehicle. Millennials are not as interested as other generations in raw engine horsepower or torque, instead they want affordable, environmentally friendly, sleek design, and high-tech features.
• Seventy percent of Millennials say they are willing to pay more for quality vehicle maintenance/service. Millennials have a higher proportion of vehicles with extended warranties, and owners with extended warranties are typically more likely to use dealerships for service.

And how do Millennials measure quality?

How do they distinguish a high quality vehicle from a low quality vehicle?

 

[riverFox]

And how do Millennials measure quality?

How do they distinguish a high quality vehicle from a low quality vehicle?

I'll let you know once Tesla has some competition

 

[neroden]

Depends. (and it's complex) The EPC contract TE has for Moss Landing is likely an "executory " contract.

"Under the Bankruptcy Code, debtors and bankruptcy trustees are authorized to assume or reject executory contracts (and unexpired leases) in bankruptcy. This reflects the underlying bankruptcy policy that debtors should have the ability to abandon burdensome contracts and retain beneficial contracts....

In a Chapter 11 case, there is no set time period to make the decision to reject or assume a general executory contract. Instead, absent an earlier rejection of an executory contract, which is burdensome and disfavorable to the bankruptcy estate, decisions on whether to assume or reject typically do not occur until a Chapter 11 plan is confirmed or until the division, assets or entity, which the contract relates to, is sold or liquidated generally."

Executory Contracts in Bankruptcy
​

Since TE very recently was awarded the contract, it's probably not essential to the security of PG&E's electricity supply

Actually, it is essential to the security of PG&E's electricity supply, though not immediately (rather, by December 2020). This isn't disputable; it's a matter of public record through PG&E and CPUC filings, and the Trustee will respect that.

The saga of this is that PG&E was planning to pay a gas company (Calpine) to provide "reliability must run" status (i.e. grid security). CPUC rejected this and told them to find something else. They found these battery projects (which were, in fact, cheaper than paying Calpine) ,and they're explicitly classified as being grid security projects.

but primarily related to a CPUC mandate, so the decision will be based on whether the Trustee thinks PG&E got a good deal from TE.

It is true that if the Trustee thought that PG&E could get an even better deal, they could call for renegotiation -- but only if it can be completed within the original timeframe. If the companies represent that rebidding would cause a delay, then the projects will go ahead as scheduled. However, they won't call for renegotiation; they'll defer to the opinion of CPUC.

IF PG&E files, the Trustee could try to bargain for more favorable pricing as part of the re-organization negotiations.

Could. Won't.

There's a lot of much lower-hanging fruit for the Trustee. Common stockholders, preferred stockholders, bondholders, there's a *lot* of financial creditors to default on. Cramming all the bondholders into equity and mass-diluting the existing equity would allow the issuance of enough new bonds to cover the wildfire claims. They will try to avoid messing with operations.