Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

More impressive automatic stability control, I try not to give Fred clicks, but this is impressive and worth it since it could save lives/accidents.

Tesla owner says Autopilot automatically regained control after sliding out-of-control on ice – video

 

[sundaymorning]

I keep saying this. Most Tesla shorts are
1. Conspiracy theorists.
2. Do not believe in AGW (see 1)
3. Trump fans (see 2)
4. Are sexist (see 3)
5. Into hard-right politics (see 4)

I bet most Tesla shorts are also fans of PizzaGate and Q-Anon.

6. Maybe their philanthropists looking for creative ways to donate their money to helping society, in this case, to TSLA longs.

 

[KarenRei]

More impressive automatic stability control, I try not to give Fred clicks, but this is impressive and worth it since it could save lives/accidents.

Tesla owner says Autopilot automatically regained control after sliding out-of-control on ice – video

Direct link to the Youtube video:

There is some doubt that this was actually AP expressed in the comments. I offer no take myself.

 

[hacer]

...
The 2019/01/17 $100 PUT contract is trading at $6.30 now - almost all of that [is] time value.
...

That contract is (far) out of the money. ALL of its price is time value.

 

[TradingInvest]

I recently got some new money to invest so instead of adding TSLA shares, I sold cash covered Puts (out of money Puts). This can probably cause more pain to the shorts. If they rig the stock lower, I get the shares at a much lower price. If the stock goes up, I will continue to sell Puts after these expire.

 

[Etna]

Direct link to the Youtube video:

There is some doubt that this was actually AP expressed in the comments. I offer no take myself.

This is in my neck of the woods and I drive in those conditions all the time and my initial reaction is that the video looks highly suspicious.

 

[dc_h]

Just picture all of the times in the past year he stat there glued to his computer screen, brushing his teeth, selling assets worth real money - stocks, in-the-money-calls, etc in growing companies in a booming economy, in order to get the money to buy puts on Tesla, thinking, "This time... THIS time, Fraud Boy is going down for sure! I can feel it! Tesla will hit zero within three months."

Need a sad icon.

 

[SebastianR]

Need a sad icon.

Or a Schadenfreude icon...

Funny thing is, he seems to run afoul the sunk cost fallacy: he is talking of chosing a different investment strategy in hindsight yet fail to change his approach going forward...

 

[Unpilot]

Or a Schadenfreude icon...

Funny thing is, he seems to run afoul the sunk cost fallacy: he is talking of chosing a different investment strategy in hindsight yet fail to change his approach going forward...

He ain’t playing with his money...easy to keep betting when it is someone else’s money.
Now finding out who’s money it is would be interesting.

 

[neroden]

I remember that post of yours and tried to but didn't manage to find it. Could you try to find it perhaps?

I think it was in a Spiegel-specific thread if that helps?

 

[neroden]

I recently got some new money to invest so instead of adding TSLA shares, I sold cash covered Puts (out of money Puts). This can probably cause more pain to the shorts. If they rig the stock lower, I get the shares at a much lower price. If the stock goes up, I will continue to sell Puts after these expire.

I've been doing this for several years. Just watch your collateral levels, that's all. (If you stay cash covered, you'll be fine... I went to margin covered)

 

[reddit_tl]

This is in my neck of the woods and I drive in those conditions all the time and my initial reaction is that the video looks highly suspicious.

Agreed. It's almost certainly fake.

 

[Tifighter]

Driving on an icy road using Autopilot. Where’s the shaking head emoji again?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I keep saying this. Most Tesla shorts are
1. Conspiracy theorists.
2. Do not believe in AGW (see 1)
3. Trump fans (see 2)
4. Are sexist (see 3)
5. Into hard-right politics (see 4)

I bet most Tesla shorts are also fans of PizzaGate and Q-Anon.

6. Maybe their philanthropists looking for creative ways to donate their money to helping society, in this case, to TSLA longs.

7. They are part of the Oil-luminati

 

[ggr]

almost all of that time value

Since they are out-of-the-money, it is by definition ALL time value.

 

[AlexS]

Direct link to the Youtube video:

There is some doubt that this was actually AP expressed in the comments. I offer no take myself.

there is something wrong with the video on 0:13. something is cut out. maybe someone wants again Elon to share it on twitter and then say its fake stuff by Elon

 

[sundaymorning]

This 10 minute video of Tesla track mode on ice is a game changer.

An exclusive look at Tesla's extreme cold testing facility

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Bloomberg did not change their estimates *after* the P&D report. I noticed the change on the afternoon of Dec. 30th as I was doing my own P&D predictions. I had drafted part of my tweet thread using the 54k production number and then checked before I sent it, and it had changed to ~61k.

I'll also add that I think Tom is one of the best, if not the best, reporters covering Tesla right now. Elon seems to agree. He's very balanced in his articles and presents the facts as they are. He even answers questions from shorts (and longs) who attack him on Twitter, politely and in great detail. I've personally spoken with him at length and believe that he's doing great work. I also appreciate his enthusiasm towards Tesla and EVs in general.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

\

About trackers.

Troy has done a good job there. He clearly said what went wrong with Q4:
View attachment 366331
He reconfirmed my respect! Tracker worked according rules.

The other tracker went similar path but couple days before it jumped for several thousands cars to quite accurate figure . It looks like they got insider information. I do not trust that tracker.
And this piece of impotent sh** is always down!View attachment 366342

At the moment I'm using:
Model 3 VINs +% of VINs used from previous Q according to logic guy.

For months, people have been bringing up the issue of declining sample rates with @Troy. He would say that his methodology was immune to changes in sample rate since he was using absolute VIN numbers. Um ... ok.

Now, after a huge miss in his estimate, he's blaming it on ... you guessed it ... sample rate! "I was getting almost no data"

The fact that sample rates would decline and that these new buyers wouldn't be reporting data to the survey should have been obvious to literally everyone. "...they were selling lots of Teslas in stores but the new buyers didn't use my survey"

He then cherry picks from his prior estimates and says that he would have been #1 had he just used an old estimate from Dec. 11 or Nov. 27. This is nonsense. "I wish I hadn't lowered my estimates". Not exactly a scientific approach.

Maybe Troy will figure out some better methode.

Or, maybe Troy will learn to listen to others. Perhaps engage in discussion instead of constantly telling people to put their estimate in a spreadsheet "so that they can measure accuracy". Guess what? The assumptions that underly people's predictions are often *more* important than the actual numbers themselves. Discuss them.

 

[EVMeister]

And how do Millennials measure quality?

How do they distinguish a high quality vehicle from a low quality vehicle?

How do Millenials decide which smartphone to buy? By reading reviews and spending hours reading forums (like this) to find out about user experiences and ask questions. Consumer reports will probably indirectly affect this as it will no doubt be referenced somewhere, by someone. Even if not viewed directly. In this day and age and way of absorbing information CR is still a tool, but a far less vital one.