Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AlMc]

Keep in mind there is still all day Sunday to go. And then 2 more full weekends in the quarter remaining. Not to mention 12 more weekdays.

I think by the time the quarter draws to a close the number of Model Y's produced and delivered will be staggering. It will be even more surprising to many due to the stealth nature of the roll-out (not to mention the fact that it happened in the middle of the Coronavirus scare).

Problem: Tesla continues to back end load deliveries to end of Qs. We are in a situation where all business activity has a very real potential to close all not essential businesses, which would include Service Centers/deliveries.......Not saying it is going to happen but I am not convinced that these next two weeks will be 'staggering' in terms of y deliveries. EDIT: Can you put a number on 'staggering' for me? Thanks

 

[StealthP3D]

Reported. Threatens harm.

Are you reporting Mark Spiegel to the N.Y.C. Mental Health Hotline, Homeland Security or Twitter? A good case could be made for all three.

 

[Fobble]

Imaging if Tesla is able to pull the trick and Q1 and Q2 meet or beat analysts estimate despite the virus issues ....

 

[Artful Dodger]

Off topic slightly, but you’re a gem...thank you for the information you share and perspective you bring...

OT

Spoiler: SUX2B me

Lol, worse part of this financial crisis is (as of 1 hr ago) gasoline is 59.0 c/ltr (U$1.63 / US Gal) here right now, but I've only bought 1 tank of gas since Nov 15, and I don't need any right now! Maybe in another month or two... will keep you posted.

Cheers!

 

[goinfraftw]

Unless you're a short term trader/speculator, don't forget to look at the long term picture. The market tends to be very short-sighted, but if you're a (long term) investor, the most important thing is the long term potential. Balance sheets and profits in single quarters can be influenced by loads of things, and they're only a very small part of the long term outlook of a company.

8+ year hold and re-investment . Just started to divest this year. It'll continue to be a long-term hold w/ a Bengen-esque method of divestment.

 

[Dr. J]

This is the most low-keyed start of production of a vehicle I have ever seen. It's almost like Tesla is STILL trying not to sell the Model Y. There must be more demand than even most of us even realize. Obviously, they don't want to attract any more Model Y buyers at this point.

And yes, that's a good thing.

There was "anti-selling" with the Model 3 (likely to protect S/X sales) until production process was worked out.
Elon Musk Says Tesla Is "Anti-Selling" the Model 3

 

[StealthP3D]

There are many here in many different situations and not all are in positions like you and I are to have no near term need to sell. For those people (as well as you and me someday in the future), the stock price is very important.

It's just so foreign to me to think some people invest their day-to-day, month-to-month money in the stock market. I don't know of a single financial advisor I trust or respect but at least they all recommend keeping a minimum of three-months supply of cash on hand in an emergency fund, if not a year or two worth. Anything less is irresponsible in my opinion.

 

[StealthP3D]

Problem: Tesla continues to back end load deliveries to end of Qs. We are in a situation where all business activity has a very real potential to close all not essential businesses, which would include Service Centers/deliveries.......Not saying it is going to happen but I am not convinced that these next two weeks will be 'staggering' in terms of y deliveries. EDIT: Can you put a number on 'staggering' for me? Thanks

No, I don't try to put a number on "staggering". I've made my way in the stock market by almost entirely ignoring the kind of information analysts base their quarterly forecasts on and done very well over the last 30 years. Because I take a long term view and search out companies that will outperform. You know the old saying, "Can't see the forest for the trees"? That's exactly why so many analysts called Tesla wildly over-valued just 6 months ago. Because they were essentially trying to drive a car by looking in the rear-view mirror. I believe the expectation for Model Y deliveries in Q1 is very low.

I've found it more valuable to avoid absolute number forecasts and focus on the more general mood or factors that could make the numbers higher or lower than expected. In this case, I've divined the numbers will be good.

 

[Fobble]

I know that quite a few of TMC members sold on Thursday when the panic was at the peak. They were lucky because TSLA did not participate in the huge market gain on Friday.Those who sell in the panic due to emotion may be likely to buy with emotion as well on FOMO if they don't plan their entry point properly to get back in if they still believe in Tesla.

 

[Unpilot]

I have been reading nonstop about the virus that shall not be named for the last several days.
Talking with friends and family all over the USA..and reading here about other countries as well. This is a panic like I have never seen. Pretty good chance my industry will contract significantly.

When we add up all the potential loss of jobs and "belt tightening" it worries me.

I plan on selling some stock just to have a cash cushion for the next year.

One stock I won't sell is TSLA. My other holdings are still up relative to a year ago so while I had not planned on selling them it won't hurt much

Everyone has to make their own decisions but I can't understand why one would sell TSLA now.

We either learn how to cooperate and let science be our guide or end up in caves throwing rocks at each other.

I'm planning on the former.

 

[ggies07]

Ooooh, love this.

 

[willow_hiller]

Keep in mind there is still all day Sunday to go. And then 2 more full weekends in the quarter remaining. Not to mention 12 more weekdays.

All of delivery date selector screenshots I saw on Twitter and Reddit had March 15 as the earliest available date. I think we're going to see Y delivery reports pick up significantly tomorrow.

 

[Artful Dodger]

ARK Invest's Cathie Wood on what she's buying and selling amid coronavirus fears

 

[SunCatcher]

Imaging if Tesla is able to pull the trick and Q1 and Q2 meet or beat analysts estimate despite the virus issues ....

I can do that. My wife always tells me I have a good imagination.

 

[Unpilot]

ARK Invest's Cathie Wood on what she's buying and selling amid coronavirus fears

Man the old dude with the wig.... early stage dementia maybe?

 

[Thekiwi]

So does anyone know if Tesla is actually still making deliveries in EU markets? For instance in France & Italy where the population is in lockdown?

 

[BornToFly]

I read in the other forum that several European countries are mandating all non-essential businesses close for the rest of the month. I don't know what impact that could have on Tesla deliveries for the quarter since a lot of deliveries seem to happen even in Europe in the last two weeks of the quarter. This could screw up Q1 big time.

 

[Hock1]

I thought this lawsuit was brought up by Solarcity short sellers. There were short sellers actively trying to bankrupt the company. When Tesla bought Solar City it wiped out the short sellers who then sued. Musk does not consider short sellers to be ‘investors’ hence he refuses to settle. No longer remember where I read or heard this. Will try googling it.

This is going to be interesting because short sellers are not investors. The SEC has been trying to protect short sellers by creating, and gradually introducing the term market participant into trading regulations. If short sellers are to be rightfully protected on a par with actual investors, then they're going to have to do whatever is necessary to deliver shares at settlement (2 days) and report the size and ownership of short positions over 5%. If Elon's defense is that short sellers are not investors and therefore not afforded the same protection as investors, this could be a very significant ruling.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Since the last earnings call I'm under the impression that Tesla is going to be running much more of a 'stealth operation' going forward, and that there'll be a lot less information about the state of the business flowing out to the public. To me it's felt like they're sharing less detailed information and forecasts than they used to 1-2 years ago, and it seems like this could be part of their new under-promise and over-deliver strategy.

Which discourages traders and shorters from trying to time the market. Gains can come suddenly at any time.

 

[Dr. J]

Man the old dude with the wig.... early stage dementia maybe?

If you mean Joe "clean hydrocarbons" Kernan, that's freakin' hilarious!