Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

Twitter users, please report this Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

View attachment 521650

Reported. Threatens harm.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Whenever you use Google to find something such as the above news story, Google will not merely
give you the link. Rather, they give you a redirect via their own server, so they can track whether
you and also anyone you gave that link to, decided to follow it. While Google will surely argue that
this allows them to improve your searching experience, the old adage still holds:

If it's free then you are the product.

So personally, I don't post links via trackers like Google (or Apple), and I also don't follow them.

Here is the link directly from the news media that brought it:
Elon Musk Told Workers They're More Likely To Die In A Car Crash Than From Coronavirus

Btw, it's clearly written to put Elon Musk in a bad light.

Thanks. I tried briefly to find the direct link, but I guess I should have just went to their website.

I agree that it tries to put Musk in a bad light, but so do 75% of the articles Ive ever read. I've learned to weed through the opinions and agendas to filter out the facts in the story.

It's no different than when I read a "news" article on ANY media outlet - a couple small factoids, wrapped up in a bunch of agenda.

 

[Ratanpara]

This is really confusing time for Tesla investors, just don’t know who to believe, I just checked Tesla website for Model 3 delivery in New Jersey, 8-12 weeks !, world is going upside down due to virus , is order rate is still this high even when worldwide economy under stress ?, I reduced my position in stock recently but I may have to get in soon , FOMO.

 

[goinfraftw]

This is really confusing time for Tesla investors, just don’t know who to believe, I just checked Tesla website for Model 3 delivery in New Jersey, 8-12 weeks !, world is going upside down due to virus , is order rate is still this high even when worldwide economy under stress ?, I reduced my position in stock recently but I may have to get in soon , FOMO.

Frankly, it's messed with my view on the company, how I track it now, and my overall thesis on Tesla. Provides a lot of concern. Currently, I'm looking at fundamentals of what might be the basics of their balance sheet heading into Q1/2020 earnings; hoping for the best.

 

[kbM3]

Focus on the company and their execution, investing becomes a whole lot easier when you stop worrying about (or celebrating) the share price. It is at wherever it's at. Always focus on the company and its current execution.

Not worrying about the current share price is great advice for those that have no near term need to sell. Remember though there are many different types of people here. Some people have emergencies, may be withdrawing monthly because they’re in retirement, may be selling to buy a home, or a Model Y.

There are many here in many different situations and not all are in positions like you and I are to have no near term need to sell. For those people (as well as you and me someday in the future), the stock price is very important.

 

[wipster]

In case nobody has yet, Happy Pi Day to everyone!

 

[Sudre]

There is no way the Dow nor the U.S. economy as a whole can hold up with hundreds of millions of people sequestered at home, countless businesses closed, and so many segments of economic life impacted (travel, lodging, restaurants, retail, malls, cinemas, stadium/arena sports/concerts... the list is endless). I now fully expect the Dow to revisit 15000 to 17000 in the next 60 days. And TSLA to be pulled down a proportional amount.

I guess one way to fix that is to close the stock market until this is over.

 

[abasile]

We have a nice word here for people who ride their bikes only on Sunday with clear sky and warm temperatures. It called “Schönwetterfahrer”. A lot of people here seems to be Schönwetterfahrer on TSLA. Makes me sad and angry.

I happen to be a "fair weather cyclist"; I usually only cycle for exercise and for pleasure when conditions are clear, as cycling isn't my only form of exercise. It's important for everyone to be comfortable with their investments. This forum is more valuable when people feel free to share their honest opinions, concerns, etc. My wife and I happen to be comfortable with TSLA as a large fraction of our portfolio, but not everyone's situation and/or temperament is the right fit for a large concentration in a single growth stock, etc.

The Model Y clearly differs from the 3 in that it has an Off-road Assist mode (owner's manual, p. 72), but I am wondering is it more correct to describe it as a SUV or as a CUV?

The SUV category is often considered to encompass crossovers (CUVs) as well as larger, traditional, truck-based SUVs. To be as precise as possible, the Model Y would be considered a CUV (crossover utility vehicle) because it is car-based and not super large, but it's still okay to call it an SUV.

There is no way the Dow nor the U.S. economy as a whole can hold up with hundreds of millions of people sequestered at home, countless businesses closed, and so many segments of economic life impacted (travel, lodging, restaurants, retail, malls, cinemas, stadium/arena sports/concerts... the list is endless). I now fully expect the Dow to revisit 15000 to 17000 in the next 60 days. And TSLA to be pulled down a proportional amount.

Perhaps, but I certainly wouldn't count on it. The stock market is forward looking by nature. I think the market has already priced in a substantial amount of economic dislocation. However, to the extent that investors are underestimating this crisis or failing to anticipate the full fallout, the market is likely to drop.

In case nobody has yet, Happy Pi Day to everyone!

Happy 3.14!

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

This is the most low-keyed start of production of a vehicle I have ever seen. It's almost like Tesla is STILL trying not to sell the Model Y. There must be more demand than even most of us even realize. Obviously, they don't want to attract any more Model Y buyers at this point.

And yes, that's a good thing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I guess one way to fix that is to close the stock market until this is over.

It could happen.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

This is the most low-keyed start of production of a vehicle I have ever seen. It's almost like Tesla is STILL trying not to sell the Model Y. There must be more demand than even most of us even realize. Obviously, they don't want to attract any more Model Y buyers at this point.

And yes, that's a good thing.

It can't be because world events are currently overshadowing a product launch from the car company? Come on. Tesla isn't trying to sell anything right now because if they have to close Fremont temporarily they won't be having any cars to sell. It's fairly obvious that Tesla is already quietly preparing measures to deal with an ongoing black swan event that no one is allowed to talk about in this thread.

 

[Highway2Heel]

It could happen.

Off topic slightly, but you’re a gem...thank you for the information you share and perspective you bring...

 

[FrankSG]

It makes total sense to me and this is what I love about Elon. He really understands that the "obvious" solution is not always the best solution and the world is an intricate place where every action has a reaction.

Not only can they sell every Model Y they can make (without advertising or hullabaloo) but this "stealth" roll-out can end up having more impact at a later date when it matters more. Maybe after the Coronavirus thing is not front and center in the news.

Also, production ramps take time. If it's highly publicized now the articles have the opportunity to cast doubt upon the speed of ramp while repeating the endless negativity about the speed of previous ramps. A "stealth" ramp-up sets up the narrative to be "Wow! Look how fast they ramped and how many they are already shipping". Had they made a big deal about the first deliveries the story would have lost its impact by the time they got to volume deliveries. This way it will seem almost instantaneous which will be a surprising improvement over previous ramps.

This is the handiwork of a person who understands the intricacies of how the world actually works. Probably because Elon has read "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu.

Sun Tzu said:
Open confrontation will trigger
over-powering resistance. Thus the key
to victory is the ability to use surprise tactics.

Since the last earnings call I'm under the impression that Tesla is going to be running much more of a 'stealth operation' going forward, and that there'll be a lot less information about the state of the business flowing out to the public. To me it's felt like they're sharing less detailed information and forecasts than they used to 1-2 years ago, and it seems like this could be part of their new under-promise and over-deliver strategy.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't know why people think a Model Y delivery event is needed.

There did seem to be one planned for Vegas at some stage?

Looks to me like Chinese Model Ys will come from Shanghai, European Model Ys will come from Berlin, even with all that another factory is needed for US and perhaps rest of the world demand.

So Fremont can't even supply US Model Y demand, and I doubt pack volumes are a solved problem. So beyond a certain point every additional Model Y Fremont produces is one less Model 3.

The we have the inevitability of Model Y YouTube videos, feedback from early customers, sightings etc. there is a certain level of organic demand growth that is hard to prevent, especially as the more we find out about Model Y, the better the product looks.

I'm expecting Investor Day to feature Plaid Model S/X and for Tesla to market those cars more aggressively. Again, I think 'ring times, YouTube videos and organic demand growth will do a lot of the work. As well there are some Tesla customers who can afford to have the best, and Plaid well be significantly better than P100D.

For the share price in this type of market, I don't think the market is overly focused on individual companies let alone marketing events by individual companies, and the media are more likely to paint any such event as 'desperate'.

It is far better to surprise on the upside with Q1 Deliveries and Earnings, so delivering as many cars as possible as efficiently as possible is all that counts..

investor Day will hopefully be another upside surprise... my hope is that 2 X upside surprise, earnings followed by Investor Day....in a general market environment of doom and gloom that is big...

The harder upside surprise is still deliveries and earnings, that is "narrative setting" for Investor Day, bad earnings are a drag, good earnings are a springboard...

There is no time now for a Model Y delivery event... perhaps in future, a special event for delivery of the 10,00th Model Y might make sense.

 

[FrankSG]

Frankly, it's messed with my view on the company, how I track it now, and my overall thesis on Tesla. Provides a lot of concern. Currently, I'm looking at fundamentals of what might be the basics of their balance sheet heading into Q1/2020 earnings; hoping for the best.

Unless you're a short term trader/speculator, don't forget to look at the long term picture. The market tends to be very short-sighted, but if you're a (long term) investor, the most important thing is the long term potential. Balance sheets and profits in single quarters can be influenced by loads of things, and they're only a very small part of the long term outlook of a company.

 

[vikings123]

Since the last earnings call I'm under the impression that Tesla is going to be running much more of a 'stealth operation' going forward, and that there'll be a lot less information about the state of the business flowing out to the public. To me it's felt like they're sharing less detailed information and forecasts than they used to 1-2 years ago, and it seems like this could be part of their new under-promise and over-deliver strategy.

I agree. It’s almost like they want the results to speak for themselves. No news is goods news from that standpoint. I’m glad to hear they are not yet running any end of quarter incentives.

Next two weeks execution and delivery will be important in terms of the short term SP but irrelevant from a long term perspective. I would still bet on a quarter that makes wall street happy.

If you are worried about the short term price you can hedge with some puts but damn are they expensive now, the volatility is through the roof.

 

[StealthP3D]

I've been following this pretty closely, and it seems like deliveries are slower this weekend than expected, feels like less than 10 Ys have been delivered to normal customers so far. Although I don't have the numbers to back it up.

Keep in mind there is still all day Sunday to go. And then 2 more full weekends in the quarter remaining. Not to mention 12 more weekdays.

I think by the time the quarter draws to a close the number of Model Y's produced and delivered will be staggering. It will be even more surprising to many due to the stealth nature of the roll-out (not to mention the fact that it happened in the middle of the Coronavirus scare).

 

[lklundin]

Not worrying about the current share price is great advice for those that have no near term need to sell. Remember though there are many different types of people here. Some people have emergencies, may be withdrawing monthly because they’re in retirement, may be selling to buy a home, or a Model Y.

There are many here in many different situations and not all are in positions like you and I are to have no near term need to sell. For those people (as well as you and me someday in the future), the stock price is very important.

Anyone who has a near term need for cash has no business having that cash in TSLA - there is an abundance of historical evidence to show just how volatile that stock is and consequently how no risk management can justify this as a short term investment.

 

[Dr. J]

Trump at it again...I can't wait for the movie about him in 10 years or so.

Trump touts ‘biggest stock market rise in history yesterday,’ but many investors believe worst isn’t over amid coronavirus panic

#Winning!

 

[lklundin]

I happen to be a "fair weather cyclist"; I usually only cycle for exercise and for pleasure when conditions are clear, as cycling isn't my only form of exercise. It's important for everyone to be comfortable with their investments. This forum is more valuable when people feel free to share their honest opinions, concerns, etc. My wife and I happen to be comfortable with TSLA as a large fraction of our portfolio, but not everyone's situation and/or temperament is the right fit for a large concentration in a single growth stock, etc.


The SUV category is often considered to encompass crossovers (CUVs) as well as larger, traditional, truck-based SUVs. To be as precise as possible, the Model Y would be considered a CUV (crossover utility vehicle) because it is car-based and not super large, but it's still okay to call it an SUV.


Perhaps, but I certainly wouldn't count on it. The stock market is forward looking by nature. I think the market has already priced in a substantial amount of economic dislocation. However, to the extent that investors are underestimating this crisis or failing to anticipate the full fallout, the market is likely to drop.


Happy 3.14!

Much like investing, cycling does not depend on the conditions, just on the proper mindset and preparation.