Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[abasile]

Much like investing, cycling does not depend on the conditions, just on the proper mindset and preparation.

Particularly as a mountain dweller, I would need to generalize this beyond cycling. Getting 1m / 3ft of fresh snow, or a blanket of dense fog, makes cycling a bad idea if not impossible. However, it's always possible to do some form of outdoor exercise, regardless of the weather. With 1m of snow, backcountry skiing becomes quite attractive.

Like outdoor exercise, investing is possible in "all weather conditions". The "weather" (i.e., economic/social conditions) will often dictate the best overall approach. For example, in stormy weather as we are facing today, we generally want to be holding on tightly and accumulating more shares in tranches, going with top-quality investments like Tesla (in my opinion). In gorgeous weather, which we had for much of the last 12 months, we want to be looking for opportunities to increase cash reserves in preparation for storms ahead. In all weather, it's important to remain calm and humble.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Thats something like $20-30 million per week of solar roof revenue!
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1239021421264691200?s=21

 

[Krugerrand]

This can't be true...

It may be a very fast "freeze" response that requires no thought. Could have saved lives if downwind of a predator!

That’s not how it works. While panic often causes a ‘physical’ freeze, it also often causes a ‘brain’ freeze. You stop being able to think. That’s generally not beneficial.

I’m not a freeze panicker. High stress situations cause time to stand still. I see everything clearly. All my senses are heightened and I process very quickly, allowing me to decide what needs to be done in the moment.

Yes, I can assess and implement action or non-action quicker than a freeze panicker. Been there, done that.

 

[FrankSG]

Thats something like $20-30 million per week of solar roof revenue!
Tesla on Twitter
View attachment 521933

Woow, this is amazing! Even in my bullish model for the next 2 years, I've been quite conservative with regards to the Solar Roof ramp, and I predicted 1k roofs/week in Q4'20.

Now, of course 1k roofs produced last week was likely peak production, and the fact that they can produce 1k roofs/week does not mean they can install 1k roofs/week, but nonetheless this is an amazing sign, and I will be updating my models a bit to reflect what looks like a faster Solar Roof ramp.

 

[StealthP3D]

ARK Invest's Cathie Wood on what she's buying and selling amid coronavirus fears

CNBC's Joe Baffoon Kernan, in relation to whether cheap oil would impact Tesla sales, suggested that maybe with the grid moving to "clean hydrocarbons" the lower energy prices would benefit electricity prices. I wish Cathie Wood had replied, "Well in terms of AGW, there's really no such thing as clean hydrocarbons" and, in any case, most electricity is retailed by regulated utilities such that short term price shocks in the energy markets are averaged out such that there is no immediate price impact to the end-users. Oil is likely to increase in price before electrical consumers will see a meaningful reduction on their bill.

Instead, she appeared to agree with him and make him feel undeservedly smart.

It's funny how all these "non-EV driving" talking heads on TV appear to believe that EV's are inferior to ICE vehicles except for the fact that gas costs more than electricity.

 

[Ameliorate]

CNBC's Joe Baffoon Kiernan, in relation to whether cheap oil would impact Tesla sales, suggested that maybe with the grid moving to "clean hydrocarbons" the lower energy prices would benefit electricity prices. I wish Cathie Wood had replied, "Well in terms of AGW, there's really no such thing as clean hydrocarbons" and, in any case, most electricity is retailed by regulated utilities such that short term price shocks in the energy markets are averaged out such that there is no immediate price impact to the end-users. Oil is likely to increase in price before electrical consumers will see a meaningful reduction on their bill.

Instead, she appeared to agree with him and make him feel undeservedly smart.

It's funny how all these "non-EV driving" talking heads on TV appear to believe that EV's are inferior to ICE vehicles except for the fact that gas costs more than electricity.

In his defence it was the first time ive seen him try to defend EV's. He'll be a bull in no time. Gotta let him slowly make his transition! Lower cost of electricity means lower operational cost of EV's, thats what he was getting at right?

 

[Krugerrand]

I have been reading nonstop about the virus that shall not be named for the last several days.
Talking with friends and family all over the USA..and reading here about other countries as well. This is a panic like I have never seen. Pretty good chance my industry will contract significantly.

When we add up all the potential loss of jobs and "belt tightening" it worries me.

I plan on selling some stock just to have a cash cushion for the next year.

One stock I won't sell is TSLA. My other holdings are still up relative to a year ago so while I had not planned on selling them it won't hurt much

Everyone has to make their own decisions but I can't understand why one would sell TSLA now.

We either learn how to cooperate and let science be our guide or end up in caves throwing rocks at each other.

I'm planning on the former.

Weird because I was at a place of business today in my industry and I specifically asked how things were and the answer was it’s fine, business as usual, with the vast majority of customers commenting that the general public are over reacting.

Speaking with family and friends, they too think people have lost their minds.

 

[StealthP3D]

In his defence it was the first time ive seen him try to defend EV's. He'll be a bull in no time. Gotta let him slowly make his transition! Lower cost of electricity means lower operational cost of EV's, thats what he was getting at right?

That's what it sounded like. Maybe he's trying to sound non-biased these days. Probably has a contract renewal coming up, LOL!

 

[FrankSG]

Weird because I was at a place of business today in my industry and I specifically asked how things were and the answer was it’s fine, business as usual, with the vast majority of customers commenting that the general public are over reacting.

Speaking with family and friends, they too think people have lost their minds.

What kind of business are you in? A virus like this will impact different types of business very differently.

 

[Alphacrux]

Thats something like $20-30 million per week of solar roof revenue!
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1239021421264691200?s=21
View attachment 521933

So where does TSLAQ think Tesla is parking all of those solar roofs?

 

[NicoV]

Weird because I was at a place of business today in my industry and I specifically asked how things were and the answer was it’s fine, business as usual, with the vast majority of customers commenting that the general public are over reacting.

Speaking with family and friends, they too think people have lost their minds.

In Belgium, the general consensus of ‘this is overreacting’ to ‘we have to contain this together’ switched very fast, in a couple of days. We’re less than 1000km from the war zone called ‘Lombardy’.

 

[NicoV]

I read in the other forum that several European countries are mandating all non-essential businesses close for the rest of the month. I don't know what impact that could have on Tesla deliveries for the quarter since a lot of deliveries seem to happen even in Europe in the last two weeks of the quarter. This could screw up Q1 big time.

I would guess that most of the deliveries in the last 2 weeks of the quarter would go to the countries near Zeebrugge. The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany have nog general shutdown yet. I tried to figure out whether deliveries in France would be shut down, but couldn’t find a definitive answer in the French press.
The couple of European countries that have completely shut down their borders are small Tesla markets.
Most of the European countries have tried to limit gatherings of people by shutting down everything that puts lots of people together, rather than a wholesale shutdown of the economy.

 

[Frank Einstein]

In Belgium, the general consensus of ‘this is overreacting’ to ‘we have to contain this together’ switched very fast, in a couple of days. We’re less than 1000km from the war zone called ‘Lombardy’.

Same in Austria. Two weeks ago I told my students that the university might be closing. They all laughed because they thought I was joking. Eight days later the university closed. My kids are home from school, at least until past Easter and quite possibly longer. All businesses except supermarkets and pharmacies are expected to close next week. Police were patrolling supermarkets at the weekends breaking up fights over the last tins of tuna. No one is treating this as a joke anymore.

How does this apply to Tesla/TSLA? I don't know -- and anyone who tells you they do know is lying/deluded. No one knows. This is new, this is different.

I'm not selling my shares -- if the stock market can recover from the depression, WW2, 9/11, 2008, etc., it can and will recover from this. If it doesn't recover from this, my cash won't help me much anyway. I have time to sit back and watch, but I definitely understand and respect that other people are in a different position and have different timelines/priorities.

 

[Fact Checking]

Now, of course 1k roofs produced last week was likely peak production, and the fact that they can produce 1k roofs/week does not mean they can install 1k roofs/week, but nonetheless this is an amazing sign, and I will be updating my models a bit to reflect what looks like a faster Solar Roof ramp.

I strongly suspect Tesla wouldn't be ramping to 1k roof/week production if they didn't see a fair chance to reach 1k/week installation capacity in the near future.

I suspect reaching the 1k/week roof production milestone is one of the things they wanted to talk about at the "company day" in April.

 

[bramsvs]

Same in Austria. Two weeks ago I told my students that the university might be closing. They all laughed because they thought I was joking. Eight days later the university closed. My kids are home from school, at least until past Easter and quite possibly longer. All businesses except supermarkets and pharmacies are expected to close next week. Police were patrolling supermarkets at the weekends breaking up fights over the last tins of tuna. No one is treating this as a joke anymore.

How does this apply to Tesla/TSLA? I don't know -- and anyone who tells you they do know is lying/deluded. No one knows. This is new, this is different.

I'm not selling my shares -- if the stock market can recover from the depression, WW2, 9/11, 2008, etc., it can and will recover from this. If it doesn't recover from this, my cash won't help me much anyway. I have time to sit back and watch, but I definitely understand and respect that other people are in a different position and have different timelines/priorities.

Sun Tzu also applies to Covid-19:
Open confrontation will trigger
over-powering resistance. Thus the key
to victory is the ability to use surprise tactics.

It's an army doubling every week in size, thus by the time it is detected (incubation..) it already doubled. When it starts killing, quadrupled.

Please don't let your guards down, C19 doesn't negotiate.

 

[Buckminster]

Thats something like $20-30 million per week of solar roof revenue!
Tesla on Twitter
View attachment 521933

Really impressive - do we know if Elon has announced a target greater than 1000 roofs per week?

I thought I would look at recruitment. Firstly, blown away at the number of vacancies overall - they are not holding back.

In Arizona they are recruiting a roofing instructor, lead roofer and roofer.

Solarglass Roofer / Installer | Tesla

91 roofing jobs across the US.

 

[Todd Burch]

I still have all my shares and will continue to hodl them, because my testicles are larger than my brain. Metaphorically.

Speaking of which, I should probably get that looked at, but don’t want to add stress to the health care system right now.

 

[Todd Burch]

By the way, I believe the economic impacts of Covid19 will serve to increase Tesla’s lead over its competitors. Longer term this whole ordeal helps them buy time to grow and advance. It will also help me buy more shares.

 

[FrankSG]

By the way, I believe the economic impacts of Covid19 will serve to increase Tesla’s lead over its competitors. Longer term this whole ordeal helps them buy time to grow and advance. It will also help me buy more shares.

Yeah, before this crisis it was hard for ICE companies to invest in EVs as their established industry is dying, imagine how hard this is going to be during a crisis where they're struggling to simply survive.

I wouldn't be surprised to see EV regulations loosened this year to 'accommodate' the ICE industry. I thought that even in absence of this crisis the EV regulations could threaten to financially ruin certain lazy ICE manufacturers in the coming years, but if this crisis turns out really bad, governments will possibly have to loosen EV regulations to save a large number of ICE manufacturers from bankruptcy. It's going to be hard to get ICE manufacturers to pay billions of $s in fines if they don't have billions of $s.

 

[Buckminster]

Wait - is C19 worse than Brexit??