Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Wait - is C19 worse than Brexit??

Globally C19 is certainly worse than Brexit (even if we ignore the human toll and only look at the dollar figures) - and even on the European level C19 is more damaging.

In the UK it might be hard to sort apart the damage caused by BRExit vs. C19 ... At least C19 will give the right kind of excuse to do away with destructive austerity policies, I suspect/hope - but first the pandemic has to pass.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This is the most low-keyed start of production of a vehicle I have ever seen. It's almost like Tesla is STILL trying not to sell the Model Y. There must be more demand than even most of us even realize. Obviously, they don't want to attract any more Model Y buyers at this point.

And yes, that's a good thing.

I think it's probably supply drivn at the moment. They're still probably at less than 1k per week production which is insignificant compared to even the most conservative demand figures.

 

[Fobble]

my testicles are larger than my brain.

Sure, brag on ...

 

[Evoforce]

I'm not even going to touch on that subject...

 

[heltok]

Seems like a lot of cars are coming out of Gigafactory Shanghai:

(Look at 7:20 to 8min for example)

 

[CorneliusXX]

I have been reading nonstop about the virus that shall not be named for the last several days.
Talking with friends and family all over the USA..and reading here about other countries as well. This is a panic like I have never seen. Pretty good chance my industry will contract significantly.

When we add up all the potential loss of jobs and "belt tightening" it worries me.

I plan on selling some stock just to have a cash cushion for the next year.

One stock I won't sell is TSLA. My other holdings are still up relative to a year ago so while I had not planned on selling them it won't hurt much

Everyone has to make their own decisions but I can't understand why one would sell TSLA now.

We either learn how to cooperate and let science be our guide or end up in caves throwing rocks at each other.

I'm planning on the former.

Agreed on the panic. It's a unique situation that is unlikely to end in the short term and there will be a genuine contraction in consumer spending.

I've sold around 20% of my shares to deleverage. The share price could do anything in the short term regardless of what TSLA is worth. Think I'll go to zero leverage for now. To me it's worth losing some upside as the panic passes to ensure my position doesn't get forced out at the bottom. Even with zero leverage I'll still do well over the next few years.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Thats something like $20-30 million per week of solar roof revenue!
Tesla on Twitter
View attachment 521933

The great thing about this product is that there is no battery bottleneck. It should just be fairly continuous improvement as tesla gains experience in production and installation. I wouldn't be surprised if the growth rate is faster than for vehicle over the next few years.

 

[lklundin]

Does anyone remember February 4th, where TSLA suddenly ran up to an all-time high only to be violently brought down right before the close by a combination of naked short selling and fake news?

Well, it just so happens that on that very day one broker, interactivebrokers.com produced an "analysis" video where they of all the stock in the world analyze TSLA, comparing it to Bitcoin and generally ridiculing those investors who feel that the stock is worth accumulating:

Considering that during the months leading up to that time many option sellers had vastly underestimated just how quickly and how high TSLA could move (and therefore also had vastly underestimated how many shares they should be ready to deliver at a suddenly very low price), it does make me wonder what exactly IB's motives were for producing their statement on Tesla at that exact time.

 

[MartinAustin]

Just some anecdotal evidence, I am in the UK at the moment. I took a friend to the sales center in Manchester for a test-drive. Lots of Teslas around and it was packed with people. He said "we have suspended test drives until April because we're delivering so many cars at the moment, it's literally hundreds of cars. We don't have the bandwidth to do test drives."

I guess that's the quarterly wave in action. The last two weeks of March is not the time you will see Tesla staff trying to spur demand. It's all about deliveries.

 

[FrankSG]

Does anyone remember February 4th, where TSLA suddenly ran up to an all-time high only to be violently brought down right before the close by a combination of naked short selling and fake news?

Well, it just so happens that on that very day one broker, interactivebrokers.com produced an "analysis" video where they of all the stock in the world analyze TSLA, comparing it to Bitcoin and generally ridiculing those investors who feel that the stock is worth accumulating:

Considering that during the months leading up to that time many option sellers had vastly underestimated just how quickly and how high TSLA could move (and therefore also had vastly underestimated how many shares they should be ready to deliver at a suddenly very low price), it does make me wonder what exactly IB's motives were for producing their statement on Tesla at that exact time.

I don't think you closely listened to what he said, and I don't think what he says is so crazy if you consider it's purely a trader's and not an investor's opinion. He didn't say that TSLA is the same as BTC, he just made a comparison between their parabolic rises. He also did not ridicule investors for accumulating the stock, he just warned traders about jumping in on this stock, because he believes there will eventually be a crash, although he admits that could be another couple hundred dollars before that happens. I think most of his analysis is somewhat fair, although it's clear he does not closely follow the company, and is not an investor but a trader.

I also tend to give IB the benefit of the doubt, because after I read the book Flash Boys about high frequency trading, I did some reading about the anti-HFT exchange that was started by the main character in the book. It turns out that at the time I read the book (June 2019), the only company that had listed themselves on this exchange was Interactive Brokers. I can't imagine this being the financially best decision for them, so it must stem in some way from wanting to do the right thing. So that has instilled a fair amount of trust for IB in me.

 

[Silentk]

I’m not a freeze panicker. High stress situations cause time to stand still. I see everything clearly. All my senses are heightened and I process very quickly, allowing me to decide what needs to be done in the moment.
.

 

[STARR X]

Just some anecdotal evidence, I am in the UK at the moment. I took a friend to the sales center in Manchester for a test-drive. Lots of Teslas around and it was packed with people. He said "we have suspended test drives until April because we're delivering so many cars at the moment, it's literally hundreds of cars. We don't have the bandwidth to do test drives."

I guess that's the quarterly wave in action. The last two weeks of March is not the time you will see Tesla staff trying to spur demand. It's all about deliveries.

That’s great! Just think, Tesla is going to have record 1st quarter deliveries while every other car company will show a decline.

 

[Christine69420]

Regarding Tesla deliveries in Europe - here is what I know from Norway:

Delivered the last few days:

09.03.2020: 71
10.03.2020: 35
11.03.2020: 34
12.03.2020: 21
13.03.2020: 2
14.03.2020: 0
15.03.2020: 0 (so far today)

This info is from https://teslastats.no/

Yesterday a ship with Teslas arrived in Drammen outside Oslo.

In general shops and business go on as normal in Norway with the exeption of restaurants, pubs, hairdressers and others where many people usually gather. People are encouraged to work from home and in general stay at home and don't travel or mingle. Shopping centres are open but many have reduced their opening hours.

I don't know any particulars on how Tesla is handling this.

 

[KarenRei]

Regarding Tesla deliveries in Europe - here is what I know from Norway:

Delivered the last few days:

09.03.2020: 71
10.03.2020: 35
11.03.2020: 34
12.03.2020: 21
13.03.2020: 2
14.03.2020: 0
15.03.2020: 0 (so far today)

This info is from Tesla Registration Stats

Yesterday a ship with Teslas arrived in Drammen outside Oslo.

In general shops and business go on as normal in Norway with the exeption of restaurants, pubs, hairdressers and others where many people usually gather. People are encouraged to work from home and in general stay at home and don't travel or mingle. Shopping centres are open but many have reduced their opening hours.

I don't know any particulars on how Tesla is handling this.

Good they're finally getting inventory to Norway. They've been largely inventory-free most of this quarter. Of the three "realtime" EU countries, only Spain has been getting a meaningful amount of inventory.

 

[willow_hiller]

Here's an entertaining story for the weekend, the ACLU defends a Model 3 owner's right to diss ICE cars: ACLU Defending Tesla Model 3 Driver's FKGAS Vanity Plate

 

[Ulmo]

Close model for Tesla market share growth. What Elon has been saying all along.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

 

[The Accountant]

Regarding Tesla deliveries in Europe - here is what I know from Norway:

Delivered the last few days:

09.03.2020: 71
10.03.2020: 35
11.03.2020: 34
12.03.2020: 21
13.03.2020: 2
14.03.2020: 0
15.03.2020: 0 (so far today)

This info is from https://teslastats.no/

Yesterday a ship with Teslas arrived in Drammen outside Oslo.

In general shops and business go on as normal in Norway with the exeption of restaurants, pubs, hairdressers and others where many people usually gather. People are encouraged to work from home and in general stay at home and don't travel or mingle. Shopping centres are open but many have reduced their opening hours.

I don't know any particulars on how Tesla is handling this.

UK
Seems to be a different situation in the UK. If you go to the UK and Ireland forum within the "Model 3 Orders & Deliveries" thread, deliveries appear to be very active. One member posted, "It’s pretty clear that UK orders/delivery teams are getting completely overwhelmed with delivery volumes....."

Let's hope the Q1 European deliveries stay largely on track.

 

[kbM3]

Anyone who has a near term need for cash has no business having that cash in TSLA - there is an abundance of historical evidence to show just how volatile that stock is and consequently how no risk management can justify this as a short term investment.

Disagree. Every retiree should have some money in Tesla. It’s a question of percentage.

Also let’s take the case of someone who is 64 and plans to retire next year and made a super-wise investment in TSLA 10 years ago. According to your theory they should not own Tesla next year, therefore they should sell it all this year.
That’s my point. At some point everyone of us except those passing it on to heirs, will have to sell Tesla and they will care about the share price at that time. Just because that time is not 2020 for you, does not mean it is not 2020 for anyone.

It's just so foreign to me to think some people invest their day-to-day, month-to-month money in the stock market. I don't know of a single financial advisor I trust or respect but at least they all recommend keeping a minimum of three-months supply of cash on hand in an emergency fund, if not a year or two worth. Anything less is irresponsible in my opinion.

Agree about the need for 3 months to 2 years being wise, but we have seen the stock price being nowhere close to reality for over a year. So some people still care about the stock price as it currently sits. They may have already burnt through their emergency buffer. I’m not saying people should obsess over day to day gyrations, but they may definitely care about the price throughout this year, as they may need to sell.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don't understand it when folks cash in all their TSLA shares. I understand the fears from a potential repeat nightmare of 2019, breifly dipping below $200 per share. But all or none seems extreme.

Myself, I got a bit spooked from ppl like Curtis cashing in, and sold 100 last week at $589. That gave me about a 55% in cash - enough to weather a 2 yr storm, but now I also have some buying power too.

Many here would do more options in times like these. But I can't time TSLA very well, and so that final due date can be problematic. (Although I do have one contract for now, and Jan'21 still feels too quick, so maybe leaps would have been smarter).

My point is that I would not feel comfortable with fewer shares today. I know that when she blows, it's too late to jump in. Quite possible that happens around April 3rd'ish. Then the FUD will rip into Q2 demand concerns and FSD legal stuff as usual.

My point is also that I did not feel safe at my standing >80% tsla holdings either... and especially now! But to withdraw completely seems drastic and emotionally driven... while Tesla hasn't changed their pattern of success, the competition is weak still, and shorts will short again.

At about 45% share/cash now, I do feel the need to jump back in a bit. I might miss it but I also accept a reduction in potential gains this year in exchange for stress relief. That's a balance to where I win either way, and accept less for that comforting fact.

Hoping you all find that balance for yourself You don't need a divorse, councelling here works, and "The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades."

 

[Fobble]

That’s great! Just think, Tesla is going to have record 1st quarter deliveries while every other car company will show a decline.

I think Q2 is a critical quarter:
- Local authority can order to shut down Fremont factory if virus situation is getting a lot worse. Edit: unlikely, as the Bay Area is currently not a hot spot
- European prolonged lock down can damper delivery logistics there
- US situation is to be unveil. Deliveries to the hot zones can get more difficult. I do think that most areas of US will mostly be ok

The bright side is China production and delivery should get better as the country's hot zones begin to get back to normal.

I think Europe and US virus situations should get better into Q3

Hope for the best.