Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

aa

I feel like the 30 and younger crowd is about to experience the consequences of what we’ve done in the face of this pandemic, there are so many that took the economy for granted in their working life, they haven’t experienced something like this yet. (Maybe none of us have)

It’s the ultimate slap in the face when you take this cancel culture into a capitalistic economy. Job loss is about to be massive, people defaulting on loans, and nowhere safe to go.

I’m not saying the tactics used to slow down the virus have been wrong, but it’s going to be a tough lesson in every action has a reaction. I hope the best for America and the world. But it seems we *sugar* the bed on this one

It was long overdue. The world was getting complacent. Life was too good. Everyone is up to their noses in debt (in Canada). Borrow borrow borrow, buy buy buy.

Some hard times is good for us. People used to tell me "Take it like a man". But that'd be too misogynist today... or is it sexit? Or not respecting my pronoun and assuming I am man?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don’t think factories or work place is identified as non-essential businesses. See this link. The term is only referenced to where normal customer activities happen.
Here's the difference between an essential business and a nonessential business as states and cities announce coronavirus-related closures


The link says that in PA industrial manufacturing is considered essential. SF doesn’t have it defined as there are no industrial manufacturing in the city. In the end if they close factories they have to close offices too.

Good digg: Some points from the article:

• The exact definition of "essential" varies by locale, but "nonessential" applies to most recreational businesses
• For example, Pennsylvania also considers these businesses "essential":
  
  • Industrial manufacturing
  • Construction
  • Warehousing, storage, and distribution

These are the businesses largely agreed to be "nonessential":

• Restaurants and bars
• Theaters
• Gyms and recreation centers
• Salons and spas
• Museums
• Casinos and racetracks
• Shopping malls
• Bowling alleys
• Sporting and concert venues

Bottom line: Hair salons and day spas will be closed. Factories? Remains to be seen.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon probably needs to shut up about the virus.

Since I'm being disagreed with, I'll clarify. Elon replied to an article about a non epidemiology claiming we had natural immunity to the virus. Elon is no doubt a very smart person, but this is not his area of expertness. He should stay quiet on it.

Don’t be hypocritical, unless you can assure us that you’ve never spoken about or offered an opinion on any topic you aren’t an expert on. Otherwise we’ll have to start telling you what you should stay quiet about.

 

[MC3OZ]

HuH, so was doing H1N1 research.

Vaccine from phase 1 to FDA approval was 3 months. Vaccine was readily available 7 months since phase 1.

2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic Timeline

I highly doubt Covid with this much impact will take a year.

If there was ever a situation where the combined intelligence of humanity was going to pull out all stops and produce a vaccine ASAP Covid-19 is it.

In the meantime commonsense must eventually prevail, and more proactive testing must be an alternative to closing factories...
Otherwise we will eventually have the ridiculous situation of the government shovelling large amounts of money at consumers to get them to buy and no products available for purchase ... well that might get inflation happening.

 

[sparcs]

UAW, Detroit automakers negotiate rotating partial shutdowns of US plants

“All three companies have agreed to new measures that will increase adherence to CDC recommendations on social distancing in the workplace,” the union said in an emailed statement. “Most importantly, all three companies have agreed to review and implement the rotating partial shutdown of facilities, extensive deep cleaning of facility and equipment between shifts, extended periods between shifts, and extensive plans to avoid member contact.”

Not sure how relevant this is for Tesla, but it seems like this kind of negotiating is going to happen all over the country to keep manufacturing operational. Unless there is some big federal bailout to keep people at home.

 

[Cupidchild]

As far as I'm concerned the Stock Market should be shut down as well .... people taking advantage of this situation is disgusting ..... we are in uncharted territory and our actions as human beings right now is more important than capitalism.

My $.02

Cheers to the longs ......

If Market does shutdown, what do you think will happen? So say, it will great panic selling at first.
I think it would be good for market to take off for 2 weeks and then come back when situation gets better. And gap up 20% at the open.
So some say, buy more TSLA in case, before market shuts down. Anyone have comment or strategy on this? Please do share. There was CNBC article just now talking about it. How market was shutdown after Sandy and 9/11.

 

[Singuy]

If there was ever a situation where the combined intelligence of humanity was going to pull out all stops and produce a vaccine ASAP Covid-19 is it.

In the meantime commonsense must eventually prevail, and more proactive testing must be an alternative to closing factories...
Otherwise we will eventually have the ridiculous situation of the government shovelling large amounts of money ant consumers to get them to buy and no products available for purchase ... well that might get inflation happening.

Well as long as the boats are working since 95% of our daily products are from China anyways. China is no longer shut down so therefore Americans will have goods to buy. However extensive closure of the U.S will collapse the dollar and cause inflation.

 

[MC3OZ]

UAW, Detroit automakers negotiate rotating partial shutdowns of US plants

Not sure how relevant this is for Tesla, but it seems like this kind of negotiating is going to happen all over the country to keep manufacturing operational. Unless there is some big federal bailout to keep people at home.

Yep exactly manufacturers should agree to and comply with any sensible rules which keep factories open...

Governments and health experts should work with companies to find ways of keeping factories open with minimal risk, zero risk doesn't exist anywhere..

 

[MC3OZ]

Well as long as the boats are working since 95% of our daily products are from China anyways. China is no longer shut down so therefore Americans will have goods to buy. However extensive closure of the U.S will collapse the dollar and cause inflation.

Actually there are some divided opinions on how open China is, but it is definitely progressing towards back to something like normal, as far as we know.

Sooner or later humanity will stumble upon commonsense, and rational solutions, even if they are the last things we try..

 

[SMAlset]

The larger issue is who has the authority to determine how the health order applies, very unlikely that the county sheriff is the Officer who holds the final say.

In 2018 when Kilauea erupted on the Big Island in the lower east rift zone in parts of Leilani Estates and then later flowed down to the ocean wiping out many communities, Hawaii County Mayor Harry Kim issued several emergency proclamations that prevented people from staying in the area and returning during the eruption period. There was danger from the lava but also health related issues from deadly SO2 and H2S gases and volcanic glass shards in the air. The edicts were enforced by local law enforcement authorities.

 

[Steve m]

The court system is too slow. you resolve the problem with the county.

The Alameda Sheriff is an elected official.

 

[AudubonB]

Oh great. I used to live in Tulsa. When I bought the Tesla, I kept calling it a Tulsa. It took almost 2 years to get it straight. Two steps back now...

If this one goes through, will we have a Tesla Gigafactory Tulsa? Tulsa Gigafactory? Tesla Tulsa? Tulsa Tesla?

You'd really, really, really better be praying that Ms. Gabbard doesn't become President.

 

[Cupidchild]

The pattern continues to repeat itself. Expect a down day tomorrow after a modest rally today, continuing with steady declines to EOW.

Then the weekend.

Then Monday will be a bloodbath from bad news over the weekend.

The real question is where the bottom is and how much further we have yet to fall.

I didn't really think there was even remotely a change we would see $180 again on $TSLA but this is a black swan. When the swan is black, there is no predicting what will happen next.

Now we are almost at capitulation when I see reply like this. It's funny how people's emotion and thoughts can change so quickly.
When we have more of this kind of reply we are going to be ready to take off.
Yes more downside to come. I think even when we saw 396 today no one imagined we would hit sub 420, let alone sub 400! RSI still not bottom yet, also won't be surprised to get some rally up due to oversold condition and then leg lower. It's all coming down toward sub 400 area. I don't want to out guess myself by putting a bottom number here, but we all are smart enough to do some charting based on the trend and also find support that we came from.
Market never does what we want it to do, so better try to ladder your buys.

 

[StealthP3D]

he could well be a short

Or bribed by one.

Serious question: Is it illegal for a journalist to accept a bribe, you know, "gifts" or other benefits in exchange for writing stories that bias one way or the other. On the other hand, maybe it's his employer who is calling the bias.

 

[mickle]

No shutdown according to Electrek and letter to employees:

https://electrek.co/2020/03/17/tesla-updates-employees-coronavirus-no-co-pilot-test-drives/

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm mostly whining, but...
Who gets to define "value of inventory"?
Tesla has inbound shipments, those need unloaded, they need to make cars to make room for the parts, and not making cars is detrimental to their inventory values.

g. For the purposes of this Order, “Minimum Basic Operations” include the following, provided that employees comply with Social Distancing Requirements as defined this Section, to the extent possible, while carrying out such operations:
i. The minimum necessary activities to maintain the value of the business’s inventory, ensure security, process payroll and employee benefits, or for related functions.

So.... one shift?

Adding; Tesla is JIT manufacturing - just in time. You can’t just stop that. Logistics are complicated as all get out.

I’m thinking really nasty thoughts about certain members of our species and I’m angry they keep getting away with their bs.

 

[gerebgraus]

Don’t be hypocritical, unless you can assure us that you’ve never spoken about or offered an opinion on any topic you aren’t an expert on. Otherwise we’ll have to start telling you what you should stay quiet about.

Clearly Elon has always been extremely deferential to experts with proper academic credentials.

 

[woodisgood]

I’m thinking really nasty thoughts about certain members of our species and I’m angry they keep getting away with their bs.

I didn't know Russ and Lora were cats!

 

[sparcs]

No shutdown according to Electrek and letter to employees:

Tesla updates employees on coronavirus, no plans on closing stores, offers no co-pilot test drives, and more - Electrek

Here is the most important bit about how Tesla is talking with the local authorities and the reasoning:

In the email, the automaker laid out the argument that they are exempt from the recently announced shutdowns as “a national critical infrastructure”:

“National Critical Infrastructure are business sectors crucial to the economic prosperity and continuity of the United States, and includes auto manufacturing and energy infrastructure as defined by the Department of Homeland Security. People need access to transportation and energy, and we are essential to providing it. We have also been in close communication with the State of California, Alameda County, and the City of Fremont, regarding the federal government’s guidance.”

As a result, Tesla and our supplier network will continue operations that directly support factory production, vehicle deliveries, and service. If you work in these areas, you should continue to report to work, and if you don’t you should work from home until further notice."

 

[Eugene Ash]

Ugh. Anyone want to do a poll guessing what TSLA will open at tomorrow? It's at 407.51 right now after an about 5% drop after hours. My guess is another 5% drop to take us around 387.

Fwiw: i have an order for 384. Basically ~20% down from close. Both in afterhours and regular trading. I just keep adding modestly but regularly.