Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

I have a substantial chunk of dry powder set aside for such black swan events, but I'm a bit hesitant to utilize it until the U.S. bottom is clear - as U.S. sentiment tends to drive macro sentiment to a large degree. What do others think, what will be signs of the bottom of the U.S. panic?

I have some dry powder set aside too. I have been following El Erian and the guy has been spot on with his analysis so far. He believes 30-35% down from the highs is a pretty good time to start deploying some of that dry powder. We will get there today if futures hold.

As for Tesla I think the FUD and naked short selling activity has clearly picked up so I don’t know if it’s correct to say that we will trade with the macros. The factory shutdown is already priced in IMO. I believe TSLA downtrend continues this week, maybe another 10%. I will be buying small chunks. Not advice.

 

[avoigt]

I'm wondering when global macro will bottom out - because I think with the Fremont shutdown out of the way and getting priced in today TSLA will largely be a function of macro forces going forward. There might be a bit of a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' mechanics to TSLA today as well. Trading volume was already elevated this week, with 21m and 24m shares trading volume on Monday and Tuesday, which suggests good buying interest at these price levels. ARK bought 30k more TSLA shares yesterday.

Infection numbers from many countries in Europe are showing early signs of successful containment efforts, but the U.S. is probably still going downhill, especially with more testing capacity becoming available which will show an increase beyond the true spreading speed, just due to more cases now getting diagnosed and reported.

I have a substantial chunk of dry powder set aside for such black swan events, but I'm a bit hesitant to utilize it until the U.S. bottom is clear - as U.S. sentiment tends to drive macro sentiment to a large degree. What do others think, what will be signs of the bottom of the U.S. panic?

It all depends in my opinion of new bead news appear like shutdown of entire cities in the US or similar.

All positive news and there is a ton out there is completely ignored and the volatility is of the charts as well as the negative sentiment on not seen levels. Those situations did not even remain long in the darkest hours of war.

Any negative surprise will be weighting in heavily and if all remains like it is we may see a red start but over the day it could be mitigated. Its reading tealeaves so I don't know anything of course.

Ark did increase their buy volume in Tesla in the last days therefore we can expect that they expect a bottom with TSLA to be near.

Nothing can be excluded like another leg down but that may not remain for very long and the up move could be quick and hard to catch.

I will release a series of 7 articles and videos why Tesla is perfectly positioned to benefit from the situation in the long run so better don't ask me because I am very positive about where we go

 

[ProfTournesol]

I have the feeling that Volkwagen AG has hit the bottom.

 

[Fact Checking]

I have some dry powder set aside too. I have been following El Erian and the guy has been spot on with his analysis so far. He believes 30-35% down from the highs is a pretty good time to start deploying some of that dry powder. We will get there today if futures hold.

As for Tesla I think the FUD and naked short selling activity has clearly picked up so I don’t know if it’s correct to say that we will trade with the macros. The factory shutdown is already priced in IMO. I believe TSLA downtrend continues this week, maybe another 10%. I will be buying small chunks. Not advice.

So since this particular crisis is centered around the concept of "fear" I think behavioral metrics are probably more predictive than just pure Technical Analysis.

For example here's a Google Trends statistics of a couple of recession and market panic related terms:

"Panic" is shrinking in search volume, but "fear" hasn't topped and "unemployment" is rising.

School and workplace lockdown related topics are trending too:

And I'm not sure the U.S. is fully informed yet. Note how 'surgical masks' trended a month ago, but 'lockdowns' only entered consciousness recently and have still not peaked.

I.e. I think it still has a ways to go until it all sinks in.

 

[Fact Checking]

So since this particular crisis is centered around the concept of "fear" I think behavioral metrics are probably more predictive than just pure Technical Analysis.

For example here's a Google Trends statistics of a couple of recession and market panic related terms:

View attachment 523016
"Panic" is shrinking in search volume, but "fear" hasn't topped and "unemployment" is rising.

School and workplace lockdown related topics are trending too:

View attachment 523017
And I'm not sure the U.S. is fully informed yet. Note how 'surgical masks' trended a month ago, but 'lockdowns' only entered consciousness recently and have still not peaked.

I.e. I think it still has a way to go until it all sinks in.

BTW., the crash has raised the interest of retail investors, and margin-squeezed others:

 

[UncaNed]

Part (99.99%) of me wishing Elon is fighting tooth and nail to secure SP inclusion this Q.
A guy can only hope.

Why do we want that now? It won't raise SP much with these Macros compared to what it would do if it happened as we approach a new high. I'd rather postone it till then.

 

[matejpi]

I also have some dry powder set aside too.

I expect the worst is still to come because right now the whole US is in the latency period. Next two, three weeks will be very interesting.

 

[saniflash]

I expect the worst is still to come because right now the whole US is in the latency period. Next two, three weeks will be very interesting.

agreed. # of infected will go up as more testing is done, # of deaths will go up as the US works up the exponential curve

 

[DrMazeppa]

The appalling inability of governments to lead and coordinate would suggest there is still plenty of suffering for the economy (and markets).
Significant negative loops are being created at the moment and everyone is just panicking (which is dumb). Have you heard of any coordinated strategic planning considering various scenarios being discussed? Any discussion on integrated health/economics responses? No? More pain then.

For me, two signals to follow.
First, when the US is about to break the exponential line of diffusion. If Italy really manages to do that at the end of this week (I really hope so, but it is sad many are still not helping there), we could get a sense of how far this still is. A month is likely if effective measures are followed.
Second, a clear coordinated strategy at the global level (at least for major economies).
Provided the markets (debts/defaults) are still breathing at that stage, which is may main concern at the moment. Time has a cost.

P.S.: apologies for all the brackets!

 

[vikings123]

agreed. # of infected will go up as more testing is done, # of deaths will go up as the US works up the exponential curve

OTOH the social distancing efforts will likely help to keep the numbers in check. It remains to be seen but we are seeing some signs of unity between the two major parties.

TSLA down 10% pre-market, the bleeding continues but it also presents opportunities to add to your position.

As we look forward to the impact of Covid19 for Q2, China operations and demand will play a huge role. Do we have any idea about China demand or rest of Asia? If we are already at 3000 cars week that’s roughly 50K cars of production just from GF3. Also remember that we haven’t pulled any of the demand levers. Additionally we could have a fire sale on FSD(not likely) that can help with the bottom and top line.

 

[FrankSG]

Nasdaq pre-market trading opened 5 minutes ago, and TSLA dropped to $380-ish values. I'm wondering to what extent the shutdown news was priced in yesterday, when TSLA dropped 10% relative to macro indices. Today there were further macro drops, which probably magnifies the TSLA drop.

$3xx does feel like Groundhog Day.

On the plus side, I'd expect Tesla to accelerate GF3 expansion and reallocate battery supply from Fremont to GF3. There's no news yet whether the Nevada restrictions affect GF1 though.

Everybody who didn't get on the TSLA train in the $3xx range last time, just got a 2nd chance.

 

[FrankSG]

View attachment 523016

TIL there is less anxiety during weekends.

 

[mars_or_bust]

I have the feeling that Volkwagen AG has hit the bottom.

This doesn't seem to be aging well... Down 7 % so far this morning.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Expectation is that the virus will circulate till june/july in the Netherlands. A lockdown is still possible, but not preferred. The government in NL will try to avoid a lockdown (will only be in effect when hospital capacity is exceeded). so Tesla Tilburg will continue, but needs suppies from fremont, if that one is closed it will dry up in NL.

 

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 523012
Not 100% but beginning to look like GF1 will be shut down.

Based on this recent tweet by Steve Sisolak, governor of Nevada, I don't think Gigafactory 1 has to shut down:

Governor Sisolak on Twitter

"To summarize: I am telling nonessential businesses you have two choices: (1) Find a way to service your customers through delivery, drive through, or curbside or front door pickup, OR 2) Close your doors
These Risk Mitigation measures will be fully effective at noon tomorrow."​

Gigafactory 1 doesn't have any "customers" who'd have to go there, all products are transported via semi trucks.

I.e. the Nevada mitigations are intended to restrict consumer facing businesses, not manufacturing businesses. Even consumer facing businesses get the option to isolate consumers, and then they can continue to operate.

 

[Cobbler]

@KarenRei Check this article on InsideEV!

 

[electracity]

Everybody who didn't get on the TSLA train in the $3xx range last time, just got a 2nd chance.

Too soon to buy. Unfortunately probably way too soon.

Buy AMZN

 

[Dr. J]

Wishing someone luck is a way to tell them to piss off, you're done with them.

Also, 2009 was 11 years ago.

More to the point: There was no recession in 1987 despite the stock market crash. GDP grew 3.5%, 4.2% and 3.7% in 1987, 1988 and 1989, and the recession didn't hit until 1990. Totally not comparable to 2008-2009.

An Annual Review of the U.S. Economy Since 1929

 

[ProfTournesol]

This doesn't seem to be aging well... Down 7 % so far this morning.

yes, I see... nevermind.... the bottom is somewhere below.... maybe too low. hopefully they close the markets soon for the next two weeks.

 

[lklundin]

I have taken (much diminished) profits on my call options with April 17 expiry. I bought them with the expectation that the Q1 P&D report will be a positive surprise. While I still give this scenario some probability, I also see a significant risk that negative news regarding Tesla's domestic production will cause a further SP drop in the coming days - and time decay will then become a real factor. With the proceeds from the sale, I will be buying shares at some point in the coming days.