Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrmage]

Question for all the cup half-full people:

What possibly positive imminent news regarding the virus is out there to warrant a rebound of the sentiment/market in the very near future?

not asking for hopes and dreams, but tangible news that could turn the macros around

Some of them:

- Lack of any worse news than we've heard or expected for a week (eg virus is growing exponentially is not news). This would cause a rally IMO.

- Positive drug trials. For example, my sis the doc said a small drug study just showed hydroxychloroquine was effective in reducing CV replication in *humans*, not just in vitro.

- Most of all, this is a war that the entire world is waging against a single enemy. There are all sorts of smart people in this world to think of things. With leadership taking it seriously, they might even get to do it.

Although the odds of any of this in this week or next are small, I'm even more worried that something *will* come out and I'll miss my allocation of TSLA shares/leaps. The ROI at this point is good enough that I'm not worried about the short term price. I still have more tranches, however, and continue to hold my puts / spreads in SPY.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

I'm wondering when global macro will bottom out - because I think with the Fremont shutdown out of the way and getting priced in today TSLA will largely be a function of macro forces going forward. There might be a bit of a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' mechanics to TSLA today as well. Trading volume was already elevated this week, with 21m and 24m shares trading volume on Monday and Tuesday, which suggests good buying interest at these price levels. ARK bought 30k more TSLA shares yesterday.

Infection numbers from many countries in Europe are showing early signs of successful containment efforts, but the U.S. is probably still going downhill, especially with more testing capacity becoming available which will show an increase beyond the true spreading speed, just due to more cases now getting diagnosed and reported.

I have a substantial chunk of dry powder set aside for such black swan events, but I'm a bit hesitant to utilize it until the U.S. bottom is clear - as U.S. sentiment tends to drive macro sentiment to a large degree. What do others think, what will be signs of the bottom of the U.S. panic?

I think new cases in the U.S. is the key metric indicator regarding market fear. the NY Times is maintaining a database that tracks the new corona cases reported each day in the U.S. here U.S. Coronavirus Map: Cases Now Reported in All 50 States. as with all pandemics, this will ultimately take the shape of a logistic sigmoidal growth curve. Right now we’re in the exponential growth phase because: a) they’re dramatically increasing the amount of tests that are being run and b) corona is infecting more people. impossible to know the relative importance of those two factors at this point but as testing increases the uncertainties regarding corona prevalence in the U.S. will become negligible and the graph data will reflect only ‘b’. I think we’ll reach maximum market fear just prior to the inflection point on the curve when the number of new cases being reported daily peaks & declines thereafter. Perhaps a few weeks or a month until that occurs but once people see light at the end of the tunnel, uncertainty surrounding this previous unknown will decline and things calm down. Could still be a recession after that but that's a fear factor the market is more familiar with...

 

[KarenRei]

I've ALWAYS used hand sanitizer after handling charger handles. People are generally gross WRT hand cleanliness IMO.

The main difference is that the average Tesla driver handles a supercharger connector far less often than the average gas car driver handles a gas pump handle. And a gas pump will have a different person grubbing its handle an order of magnitude more frequently than a supercharger will. The people also spend nearly 100% of the time standing outside their car, often under the recommended 2 meters from other drivers. Lastly, people filling at gas stations - unless they have a RFID key or whatnot - also have to handle a credit card reader keypad.

Oh, and for whatever it's worth... I'm now fully out of spreads and back into pure calls. Thank you, volatility and protective puts!

 

[lklundin]

not unless they are disinfecting cars after every workstation touches it. Hundreds of people touch the same car in the course of its run through the factory, so one person exposes them all.

GF3 beat the virus, with among other things disinfecting along the production lines,
Twitter

 

[tslagreen]

Why we need a better healthcare system...

Just think, about 10% of the country right now are uninsured. If even 20% of this population require hospitalization, how are those bills going to be paid for?

What is the Italian healthcare model?

 

[Fact Checking]

New Interesting how Tesla stock action has really differed from the market macros for the past 2 weeks. Even today, the stock never bounced with any of the bounces in the macros, especially at the end. Looks like it's the return of the short and manipulate again

Yes, I noticed that price action oddity too.

Note that TSLA is now uptick protected, and there's a lot of shorting going on IMO via limit orders. This has I think masked about ~70 million shares of accumulation this week already. Everyone who felt FOMO at $960 but was disciplined or lucky enough to wait for the bull market correction had good entry points below $500 I think.

While TSLA will continue to be the unpredictable stock it always was, quality names hard hit by the crisis are showing signs of price exhaustion already, such as AAPL or DIS.

Oh and I just added to my position in a large way today, with purchases throughout the day. Along with some other stocks. Not sure if it's the bottom but this is just easy money if you have at least a 9 month window

Agreed. TSLA has this uncanny ability to give late comers another chance. And then another. (And then another, even if it's really, totally unnecessary.)

Not advice.

 

[Ameliorate]

If you listened to the Whitehouse briefing today, re testing. They said the next day or two would be testing about 5 days worth of cases. Next week they should be caught up and the "curve" will start to become accurate of the situation. So Expected to look Very bad in the next day or two. One could also say that next week will look very good in comparison. Aside from that, I'm very excited for Tesla and April.

Me I'm just trying to lower my perceived cost basis now, sucks I really liked the Jun 22 1000 LEAPS. trying to exchange them all for Jan 22 1000's or Jun 2022 1100's to delay the taxes on the losses I've incurred these past months by two years.

Speaking of, while the SP might be diving, there is obviously quite some demand for LEAPS. Look at the daily % gain/loss column (far right) today on some I'm holding. This should absolutely be moving down faster than the SP % wise as it's all highly leveraged.
TSLA down 15.96% at close.

 

[lklundin]

Lol....you ever been to rural Italy. Quite a bit tougher and more resilient than Tallahassee. Kansas? Perhaps on par.

Yes, I have married into an Italian family which itself consists of a richer, northern part and a not so rich southern part - so not an US immigrant one, but an actual one.

Few people in the EU can imagine a society without a social safety network, no health insurance, to live without insuring your own possessions - and consequently do not at all realize that this is the reality for a lot of people in the USA.

PS. Just for the heck of it, I'll throw in a photo from rural Italy, from '91 - before I married. This is non-coastal, so non-touristic Sardinia. But the main point is that being poor is very different from whether you know that the society will come to help you if things really go south, like if you get sick, or your farm burns down or whatever.

 

[RobStark]

They keep paying massive dividends instead of saving for a rainy day, then get bailed out by the government.

GM and Ford had about ~$28B rainy day fund. Don't know what it will be on their Q1 2020 report.

FCA has been paying into their employee pension fund which had a huge deficit and buying back FCA stock from the UAW.

 

[KarenRei]

Nobody going to talk about all of that weird price action and volume at the end of the day in the major indices?

 

[Maitri982]

Like: Favipiravir by Fujifilm may treat Covid-19, say Chinese officials. ?

An existing fda approved drug with well understood, low risk side effect showing good efficacy to treating covid19 reducing number of severe case massively?

It took the us market a while to start reacting to the virus that has been widely reported since end of January. It may take the market a little while to realize and I am expecting a massive rebound. I have started selling the protective puts and using the profits to acquire medium to long term call position. The IV is crazy though...

 

[Matias]

Because nobody gives a f*ck about the Italian stock exchange nor their economy, and everyone looks at the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones.

Italian bank crisis would be very bad for euro zone.

 

[flabellina]

What is the Italian healthcare model?

Basically no insurance. Not needed. Most of the health care is public and essentials are guaranteed to everybody.
(I have a cronic condition for which I have to do blood tests every 6 months and take some madication every day. Never paid a cent. No insurance.)
The question here is not what insurance you have (you don't have one), but how good is your local hospital and the specific department you are dealing with in that hospital.

Edit: when I was in the States I got an ear infection. I found it insulting that the first thing they asked me was what insurance I had. What? If I don't have the right insurance you don't cure me? Or cure me differently? It was inconceivable to me. I was a child at the time. I always tell this story when italians lament our health system.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also I love how Nio reported earnings that make it very apparent how dire of a situation they are in and how they are nothing like Tesla and yet Tesla and Nio were down the same amount today. Complete irrationality at this point which was part of the reason I started my buys today.

I also dont really agree with the thought process of the market will bottom when US hits peak infection rate. The market has shown time and time again to have peak irrational fear well before the peak economical issues or global issues peak. I think we hit peak market fear this week r maybe early next with the market assuming Italy infection/death rates across the US.....which I do not think will happen at all. For anyone that's been to Italy, they know that Italy is an insanely poorly run country.

 

[Nocturnal]

Senate passes coronavirus relief plan to expand paid leave, sends it to Trump

Peeing into the wind. Even this tiny measure had been delayed by idiots. What we need to pass is far larger. Trump needs to get on twitter and TV and start calling out Senate Republicans for not cooperating.

 

[Mo City]

I also dont really agree with the thought process of the market will bottom when US hits peak infraction rate. The market has shown time and time again to have peak irrational fear well before the peak economical issues or global issues peak. I think we hit peak market fear this week r maybe early next with the market assuming Italy infection/death rates across the US.....which I do not think will happen at all. For anyone that's been to Italy, they know that Italy is an insanely poorly run country.

Assuming the market bottoms at peak infection rate is just a wild guess that is probably wrong.

My wild guess is the market will bottom some time before peak infection. Who knows when that happens.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If you don't think Warren Buffett is buying 8% of Boeing today, you're batshit crazy. Once these deals start getting announced(or outed), the market will begin to swing back. Early next week perhaps? This Friday?

Either way,bi don't see us flattening for a period anymore, the deals are too good, the greed is too high, and the cash is WAY too plentiful.

 

[scubastevo80]

Sold June $225 puts this arvo. Will be happy to have those assigned to me.

 

[Fact Checking]

Nobody going to talk about all of that weird price action and volume at the end of the day in the major indices?

Was wondering about that too.

One technical reason might be that March VIX options expired today - but the rise wasn't just on S&P 500 and seems to hold after close as well.

Some sort of macro news?

 

[Dutchie]

Imagine that after this crisis, Tesla is the only car manufacture in the US still standing. Transition to sustainable transport will happen faster than expected..