Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

I think you are too optimistic because you do not account for the headwind caused by supply chain interruption that made it impossible for Fremont factory to continue even if government had allowed them. I know Shanghai GF is quickly changing over to a more local supply chain, but the optimistic prediction was some number over 70% local supply chain by mid year so unlikely they are there yet and production is only as fast as the slowest part.

make a prediction then ....based on 2 factories vs one last year ...

from Q4 update earnings update:

Vehicle Capacity

Fremont
The production ramp of Model Y started in January 2020. Together with
Model 3, our combined installed production capacity for these vehicles is now
400,000 units per year.
The ramp of Model Y will be gradual as we will be adding additional machinery
in various production shops. After such expansions are done by mid-2020,
installed combined Model 3 and Model Y capacity should reach 500,000 units
per year. We will start delivering Model Y vehicles by the end of Q1 2020.

Shanghai
We have been gradually ramping local production of battery packs since late
Q4 2019. The rest of the Model 3 manufacturing processes are running as
expected. Due to strong initial customer response in China, our goal is to
increase Model 3 capacity even further using existing facilities.
We have already broken ground on the next phase of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Given the popularity of the SUV vehicle segment, we are planning for Model Y
capacity to be at least equivalent to Model 3 capacity.


could the model Y machinery be added in shutdown, improving model Y ramp?

Installed Annual Capacity Current Status (from Q4 update)
Fremont Model S / Model X 90,000 Production
Model 3 / Model Y * 400,000 Production
Shanghai Model 3 150,000 Production


to repeat my prediction is 440K-480K and now i am thinking i am too pessimistic...which translates to 2020 SP prediction of $586-$617/share assuming internet company multiple ... rethinking my multiple at this time

not advice

 

[Curt Renz]

IAM Newswire - this morning: Tesla’s Long-Term Prospects Remain Positive While Automakers Turn to Ventilators

 

[klcklc]

Last message so I don't clog this forum more...But thanks for all the advice. I don't have an option to 'Like' your comments (maybe because I am new) but I appreciate all the posters for the info. Thanks.

 

[Zero CO2]

Thanks for all the messages about being careful with options. I apologize as I know I totally sound like a troll. I was genuinely curious about how to benefit from this inflated market and will do more research before putting my money in.

Honest confession (as dumb as this makes me sound): I never imagined putting in $400k. That is way beyond my pay grade. I meant 100 units (so 1 option I guess). Wanted to play with $5k that I don't mind losing.

I have been investing in stocks for ~30 years ... have my MBA in Finance took the required classes on options /futures/derivatives etc...
to me it is way to complicated and requires an inordinate amount of your limited time ... as a retail investor you will not beat the pros at this game .... (i suppose some folks on this thread are exceptions) but you get the idea ...

think about a better way to invest the $5 K ... a much simpler way where in 3-5 years you might be 5-10X appreciation from current SP
not advice

 

[Cupidchild]

Hate those short sellers..
In times like these they should ban short selling...

 

[Krugerrand]

Gunna buy more if it hit's 500.

I believe there is a huge DEMAND problem @Krugerrand

So many people wanting me to be disgustingly rich. I was fine with filthy rich, but ok, whatever.

P.S. Taking it all with me. Yes. Yes, I can.

 

[hobbes]

Timelapse - GF Berlin busy like an ant hill:
Emil Senkel on Twitter

 

[dgodfrey]

Last message so I don't clog this forum more...But thanks for all the advice. I don't have an option to 'Like' your comments (maybe because I am new) but I appreciate all the posters for the info. Thanks.

Novice here but one suggestion that may be of help. There are other companies that may be negatively impacted as you suspect besides Tesla that are a lot less expensive. My first option trade was back in January and it cost $220 which I was expecting to lose but looked at it as tuition. It allowed me to understand how time decay can affect a stock negatively even though the SP might be climbing. It also helped me understand the lingo and strategies of the experts here which then allowed me to use their expertise to my advantage.

You might consider NIO or WKHS as possible cheap options still in the family of EV's if that's where your research is focused.
I've also had great success selling covered calls at the risk of having them called but at strike prices that would still be hugely profitable. Lately though, those are not paying like they did unless I'm willing to go further out or lower strike prices that I would rather not sell at.
You can get 100 shares of NIO for $3k which would allow you to play with covered calls.

 

[Causalien]

Thanks for all the messages about being careful with options. I apologize as I know I totally sound like a troll. I was genuinely curious about how to benefit from this inflated market and will do more research before putting my money in.

Honest confession (as dumb as this makes me sound): I never imagined putting in $400k. That is way beyond my pay grade. I meant 100 units (so 1 option I guess). Wanted to play with $5k that I don't mind losing.

Just to put more fear in you. On average it takes about $30 000 of loss and 2 years of learning before an option trader gets familiar with all the strategies and start making money consistently.

I say this because traders will develop better habits if they start off with a big loss and in an crisis environment like what we are experiencing now. Those who started off in 2013 and experienced the smooth growth of a bull market will eventually lose it all in a big crash like this because they have no experience and no preparation for such an event.

It is a big decision to get into this as it requires consistent time and money injection, yet even after that, you might not make it because you are not fundamentally compatible with options trading.

As for $5k... I am assuming you are young and just starting out in life. At that point, it is better if you focus on your job, learn sales and build up a side income like real estate rentals or your own e commerce buisness and startup. I wouldn't recommend people investing until $100k (as in just dollar cost average into an index and forget about it) and doing actual specialized investment and trading until $1 mil.

 

[Quesder]

Novice here but one suggestion that may be of help. There are other companies that may be negatively impacted as you suspect besides Tesla that are a lot less expensive. My first option trade was back in January and it cost $220 which I was expecting to lose but looked at it as tuition. It allowed me to understand how time decay can affect a stock negatively even though the SP might be climbing. It also helped me understand the lingo and strategies of the experts here which then allowed me to use their expertise to my advantage.

You might consider NIO or WKHS as possible cheap options still in the family of EV's if that's where your research is focused.
I've also had great success selling covered calls at the risk of having them called but at strike prices that would still be hugely profitable. Lately though, those are not paying like they did unless I'm willing to go further out or lower strike prices that I would rather not sell at.
You can get 100 shares of NIO for $3k which would allow you to play with covered calls.

Yeah, I have NIO for thousands of shares and the avg cost is $5.
When it hits $2.15 days ago I really don't have dry powder.
M worry is that it could be totally eliminated by Tesla.

I considered $9 CCL as well, which is $17 today.

 

[neezer]

I solemnly swear, that if it hits $350 again, I will buy a lot (which I failed to do on Friday).

 

[CyberDutchie]

Thanks for all the messages about being careful with options. I apologize as I know I totally sound like a troll. I was genuinely curious about how to benefit from this inflated market and will do more research before putting my money in.

Honest confession (as dumb as this makes me sound): I never imagined putting in $400k. That is way beyond my pay grade. I meant 100 units (so 1 option I guess). Wanted to play with $5k that I don't mind losing.

I bought 3 Jan ‘21 $300 calls today in one of my IRA accounts. I have 300 shares and 4 Jan ‘22 $400 calls already plus 250K in cash. I’m happy with that portfolio right now, my goal is to have 1000 shares in the account. This is now secured, because I can just exercise the calls, whether TSLA goes up or down from here. If these calls expire worthless, it means I buy on open market and end up with more than a 1000 shares. I won’t be drawing from this account for another five years so plenty of time for the portfolio to gain.

 

[mact3333]

Yes I realize the the sites are saying the bear is over but it isn't....I have said 2700 on SPX should be the ceiling for this bear mkt rally...we are defcon 3 right now still...one more push up tomorrow and the set up there...we will see 1900 on SPX within 2 weeks...sell off will start next week and odds favor on monday/teusday..the pro's like to trap giddy bulls during the weekend...Im sure there will be some "news" this weekend...be careful tomorrow and esp next week.

 

[Ameliorate]

I guess two things,

Didn't I read Tesla was setting up extra production lines, the tents and optimizing while the factories are not operational? Hoping some added production capacity makes up for part of this downtime, run rates might look really nice come 3rd/4rth quarter. Also oil was down today, maybe relevant to the price action.

re- options (If you're not new to options feel free to skip) since I solely by calls and puts. You generally have around a 30% chance to win with options. If you buy OTM and the stock trades opposite your pick you lose, trades flat you lose, trades in your direction but not enough to cover your premium you lose.

If you win 50% of your trades that would be impressive but doubling your money isn't enough if half your trades also lose >50%
100x2 = 200 x.5 = 100 back to square one. I have so many that only go up 10% and so many that go -100%.
So short term is basically gambling unless you have an extreme amount of practice and good read on the markets.

On any given day you could buy a call or put, the stock trades in your direction but if it's the wrong strike you still lose! Today with the high IV is an excellent example. TSLA down 2%, Puts should've gained today yeah? Well no not unless you were ATM or ITM when purchased.
Looks like maximum return today on Tesla march 27 puts was +33% and many calls went -90% or so. A high IV environment is exceptionally harder to trade short term.

I had some of these TSLA 500 puts in case the job report tanked the market, I got rid of them first thing this morning when I was only down 10%. It's an art knowing when to cut your losses and very much harder to sell than it is to buy. Always thinking "it'll recover" or "it has more room to run!"

Lastly, it's easier if you have more money to play options simply because you're not forced into high risk strikes. Further OTM the higher the risk. Some of our traders like the 350ish 2022 Jun LEAPS. Almost a guaranteed win in my books, but currently not providing a huge amount of leverage, it wont be a 100 bagger. The cost for this almost certain victory is currently 29,000 per call option(breakeven price 640). You could buy the 1,800 2022 call for 3,900 but good chance you're flushing it down the toilet. IF it does make any money (1839 breakeven in june) the 350 call has already gone up 415% (regular stock around 250%). To do better than the 350 leap you'd have to end with a SP around 1950. Anywhere in between there and expiry the stock would at least have to be trending to trade over 1950 for the 1800C's to gain more than the 350 leaps.

Betting long term direction, like when you have a very promising company like Tesla is again much easier than short term and why LEAPS are the best choice if you want to get into Options in my opinion.
Still wont recommend it to anybody I know, my tuition to learn cost me 3 years in my wages (I guess I'm below average @Causalien oof lol).
I do like the 2022 Jun LEAPS under 1000 strike though.

 

[sparcs]

Timelapse - GF Berlin busy like an ant hill:
Emil Senkel on Twitter

another nice picture of the progress so far:

Giga Berlin / Gigafactory 4 on Twitter

 

[Prunesquallor]

Timelapse - GF Berlin busy like an ant hill:
Emil Senkel on Twitter

No, no! Then they’d have to move it!

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[neezer]

The next Autopilot update will stop for red lights and stop signs automatically.

Musk himself retweeted it:

Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

 

[willow_hiller]

The next Autopilot update will stop for red lights and stop signs automatically.

Musk himself retweeted it:

Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

Found another source with a video of the stopping in action. It alerts a driver with a "Stopping for traffic control in X feet" countdown timer. Some extra revenue for Q1 if this is live soon? The Tesla Show on Twitter

 

[Thekiwi]

Just a note on this video, I made a mistake when calculating total delivery estimates for 2020:
Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 130k
Q4 - 150k
Should have said "around 440k" but said "around 500k".

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

Looks like a good conservative scenario. I think many here are underestimating the drop in demand from tens of millions of people losing their jobs in the USA & Europe in the near term. The temporary drop in demand doesn't just come from those that lost their jobs, but also from the higher number of people who worry about losing their job and so halt large discretionary purchases in the interim. Things should be looking more back to normal by Q4, with some level of pent up demand being unleashed as well.