Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

The next Autopilot update will stop for red lights and stop signs automatically.

Musk himself retweeted it:

Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

There's video too: "Watch Tesla Autopilot Automatically Stop Red Light (Beta Testing)" (0:53)

 

[MC3OZ]

What if:
User sees red light. Autopilot doesn’t see any light. User assumes autopilot will stop, as it has done so correctly the previous 1000 times.
?

Perfect is fine.
Bad is fine as user will remain alert.
Nearly perfect is bad as user will forget their responsibility.

The reverse is also true Autopilot may see a red light that the driver misses..

The most reliable combination short term is vigilance by both, Autopilot should provide a visual clue and the driver needs to pay attention..

Autopilot should also brake early and smoothly, so the driver will again get an early clue something isn't happening..

Of course it is to transition to 10X better than the average human soon to be a useful solution...

 

[Steve m]

What if:
User sees red light. Autopilot doesn’t see any light. User assumes autopilot will stop, as it has done so correctly the previous 1000 times.
?

Perfect is fine.
Bad is fine as user will remain alert.
Nearly perfect is bad as user will forget their responsibility.

I think the system alerts the driver if it spots a red light or stop sign.

If you are the driver and the car doesn't issue an alert then you had better stop it yourself.

 

[FrankSG]

from electrek:

Tesla furloughs employees due to drop in demand amid crisis

Tesla has announced that it is going to put some employees on furlough due to a drop in demand amid the current coronavirus crisis.

An email from Axel Tangen, Tesla’s director of Northern Europe, to employees in Norway states that Tesla plans to temporarily lay off some workers due to demand slowing down (via Business Insider):

In plain terms, our current capacity is higher than the actual work available to us, due to uncertainty and restrictions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Sadly, this means that our staffing need will be lower than normal for some time to come. We are confident that this trend will reverse as the outbreak is contained and Norwegians return to their daily lives, but we need to take action to ensure there is a place to work for us all when things return to normal.

The executive said that the layoffs would start in April, but he didn’t specify how many people would be affected.

He wrote:

We will talk individually with the employees affected by the layoff. Initially, they will be laid off for the month of April. The employee and safety representatives will meet with management on a weekly basis to evaluate the current situation.

Tangen also said that “Tesla will decide which employees will be furloughed based on the necessity of their role, the amount of time they’ve worked for the company, and particularly compelling social conditions.”

Unsurprisingly, automotive sales are down around the world as the coronavirus is slamming on the brakes of the world’s economy and people are delaying major purchases, like cars.

Sources familiar with Tesla sales told Electrek that the automaker is seeing very few new orders and a lot of cancellation over the last few weeks.

In the US, Tesla is still delivering new cars, especially the Model Y, which just launched.

Tesla was also forced to close stores in the US, but not of its own volition. Many of its stores are located in malls that were closed due to the coronavirus crisis.

At the time, a source familiar with Tesla’s retail division told Electrek that the automaker plans to temporarily transfer the employees to its delivery operations.

Norway is one of Tesla’s biggest markets with hundreds of employees across over a dozen stores and service centers.

What a bullshit from Business Insider and Fred, who blindly copied BI's FUD.

Nowhere in the small quote from the email does it say that Tesla is furloughing the employees due to a drop in demand. It states:

In plain terms, our current capacity is higher than the actual work available to us, due to uncertainty and restrictions caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

So it's because there is not enough available work, because of uncertainty and restrictions.

Restrictions most definitely are not a drop in demand, and could be due to a number of regulations.

Uncertainty could be an uncertainty about demand, but it could also be uncertainty with regards to supply, manufacturing shutdowns, logistics, or a number of other things.

Far more likely than not, it's not because of a drop in demand. That's not to say there has not been a drop in demand, nor that Tesla will not be demand constrained for some period at some point in time this year, it's certainly possible.

However, until the company makes an official statement and/or until Tesla starts pulling serious demand levers, we can't be sure either way.

 

[Buckminster]

This is the FSD video to watch:

Pranay Pathole on Twitter

Seems to be calculating risk scores at the bottom left.

 

[BornToFly]

Wonder what 2021 Put price is?

Also why 1200? Wondering how you came up with that target and when you expect 1200+ SP to occur. I think we can see 1200 before December of this year

I bought 300 strike price. I should have bought earlier when it was clear the virus was going to spread, but I was late to the game. 1200 is just the price I need to sell half my shares and retire comfortably, and before the virus, I was confident we would get there by summer. Now I don't think we will have S&P inclusion until next year, and I don't know if we can get there without it. I plan to keep the other half until TSLA is much higher.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What about the possibility of a big return in next fall/winter ?

By then, Tesla will have antibody testing in place for all its employees. Only people with immunity will be allowed onsite during future waves of covid-19 and attendant lockdowns.

We know how to deal with this: 2020 is not 1920. It's a serious situation, but attempting to instill generalized anxiety is counterproductive. Action is needed; action will be taken.

"Fear chumps you up". -- unidentified USMC Cpl, Basra, Iraq, 1991.​

 

[EVNow]

By then, Tesla will have antibody testing in place for all its employees. Only people with immunity will be allowed onsite during future waves of covid-19 and attendant lockdowns.

We know how to deal with this: 2020 is not 1920. It's a serious situation, but attempting to instill generalized anxiety is counterproductive. Action is needed; action will be taken.

"Fear chumps you up". -- unidentified USMC Cpl, Basra, Iraq, 1991.​

I don't want to discuss about covid-19 here - only possible scenarios and what it might mean.

I think you are mistaken (atleast according to the most well known epidemiologist) - and I'll explain in the coronavirus thread.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I have never been able to predict TSLA's price movement short term.

In the long run, Tesla has the best chance of coming out ahead when the storm subsides.
but
This storm is just beginning...
It will be months before we see the SARS CoV-2 virus course become clear.
The economic and geopolitical effects have been set in motion and will accelerate.
Global crises can strengthen alliances. It fractures the weak alliances.
The US President is incompetent with anosognosia (a very dangerous combination)
Narcissists decompensate to sociopathic and paranoid states.
(I will not expand on these further here since I would be way too OT)

The future of Tesla (and our world) depends on Tesla being able to be the global leader it is
and maintaining trade relationships.
TSLA's value will be affected by the impending geopolitical posturing, saber-rattling and scapegoating that begins after the health crisis starts subsiding. I'm thinking years here...

So I am holding on to my TSLA stock and my time horizon is getting longer.

My apologies if this is too OT.
Now returning you to the state of our world- already in progress....

 

[Buckminster]

4.5 stars for the Taycan Turbo in Autocar. Unusually, they compare to a Tesla (although the P3D on price would have been the better comparison).

Porsche Taycan Turbo 2020 UK review | Autocar

 

[Fishy Fish]

Just saw this on The Guardian's live news feed:

"US electric car maker Tesla plans to slash on-site staff at its Nevada battery plant by around 75% due to the coronavirus pandemic, the local county manager said on Thursday.

The move comes after its Japanese battery partner Panasonic Corp said it would scale down operations at the Nevada factory this week before closing it for 14 days.

The factory produces electric motors and battery packs for Tesla’s popular Model 3 sedans.

However, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company will reopen the New York plant “as soon as humanly possible” to manufacture ventilators for coronavirus patients. "



There's no linked source and I think the 75% bit is oldish news around here (as is all the rest), but it's in the main media, so might be used to further pressure the price down tomorrow

 

[Pezpunk]

4.5 stars for the Taycan Turbo in Autocar. Unusually, they compare to a Tesla (although the P3D on price would have been the better comparison).

sorry, I'm confused about what you're trying to say. the Taycan Turbo costs almost three times as much as a P3D. the Model S Performance (which they do compare it to) is a little closer to the ballpark at roughly $100,000.

 

[Buckminster]

sorry, I'm confused about what you're trying to say. the Taycan Turbo costs almost three times as much as a P3D. the Model S Performance (which they do compare it to) is a little closer to the ballpark at roughly $100,000.

Better comparison for a TSLA bull as the cost comparison is so stark. P3D is closer in size and performance.

 

[Singuy]

Better comparison for a TSLA bull as the cost comparison is so stark. P3D is closer in size and performance.

It's a sad day when a 200k priced car is comparing to a 60k priced car. Reminds me back in the days when they had to pin super cars against a GTR that's 1/3 of the price.

 

[NicoV]

Once the factory is back up and running we will find out of the demand vanished because of the COVID-19 impacts or if the demand is still there

Tens of millions of people are in the process of losing their jobs across US & Europe. Of course it will have a near term detrimental effect on new car sales, as many more people fear they will also lose their jobs and as such delay large discretionary purchases.

These folks have just delayed their purchase until this economic uncertainty passes. Hard part is predicting when we bounce back.

My cynical view is that if we really have a large number of deaths, most of them will be old people leaving an inheritance for younger people, who are more inclined to buy an EV. This Corona thing may be a catalyst for the EV thing, at least when all the dust has settled.

 

[Singuy]

My cynical view is that if we really have a large number of deaths, most of them will be old people leaving an inheritance for younger people, who are more inclined to buy an EV. This Corona thing may be a catalyst for the EV thing, at least when all the dust has settled.

Whoa, that's as dark as the person who thinks this pandemic is what we needed to save our social security.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
Some industries will lose, like public transport, events, gatherings, gyms etc.
...

Most gyms/fitness centers are based on membership fees (fitness as a service?). Doubtful too many folks would cancel for a just a month (or two). Shows another advantage of the xAAS model. I wonder if some restaurants or bars might try membership fees to help alleviate temporary shutdowns?

 

[NicoV]

Whoa, that's as dark as the person who thinks this pandemic is what we needed to save our social security.

You make it sound like I hope to have a devastating pandemic, on the contrary, I hope we can keep the death toll as low as possible. I’m just pointing out that there may be positive effects to this whole pandemic too. Like people experiencing clean air in the cities. Like the people in neighbourhoods caring for each other.

 

[Cobos]

Most gyms/fitness centers are based on membership fees (fitness as a service?). Doubtful too many folks would cancel for a just a month (or two). Shows another advantage of the xAAS model. I wonder if some restaurants or bars might try membership fees to help alleviate temporary shutdowns?

In Norway subscriptions in the first week of closures was down 40% in gyms. So yes people do cancel when they can't use the gym.
In the same way the Norwegian state carries much of the pay for furloughed employees. I believe usually the company pays for the first month and then the state carries the rest until their notice time of 3 months are over. Though the state only pays 66% of the base pay. Now they pay 100% from day 3 of the first month. So that also means it's a lot easier for Tesla Norway to furlough people when there doesn't seem to be a strong wave this month and next quarter needs production at Fremont to pick up. This is just sensible money management for Tesla Norway.

 

[Sunlight]

I do really wonder what will happen if the seriously reduced traffic in many cities results in far cleaner air quality and then things try to 'return to normal' in, what 3-6 months?, a year?

As ICE cars reappear en masse the degradation in air quality will be apparent to all and sundry very quickly and I suspect the citizens will begin to shout that they preferred it as it was. Certainly the younger people (maybe without cars) and the Gretas of the worlds will start asking difficult questions and demanding action.

This may result in zoned areas in major cities becoming zero emissions. Public transport will go electric asap, ditto deliveries and the demand for EVs may then rocket - subsidies or not.

Tesla is well placed...…...