Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

There's no linked source and I think the 75% bit is oldish news around here (as is all the rest), but it's in the main media, so might be used to further pressure the price down tomorrow

That aligns with Fremont cutting back to 25% staffing. Doesn't mean it's not assumed though.

Spoiler: OT Stop light detection

What if:
User sees red light. Autopilot doesn’t see any light. User assumes autopilot will stop, as it has done so correctly the previous 1000 times.
?

Perfect is fine.
Bad is fine as user will remain alert.
Nearly perfect is bad as user will forget their responsibility.

The car indicates distance to traffic control device, so the driver could see that the car does not see. (Better than with humans) Driver should also notice lack of deceleration.

If the detection is tied into the map database, then the most conservative approach is to treat every intersection as controlled. In that setup , you would need both a vision and a GPS/Mapping failure to induce your scenario, along with driver inattention.

 

[hoang51]

I do really wonder what will happen if the seriously reduced traffic in many cities results in far cleaner air quality and then things try to 'return to normal' in, what 3-6 months?, a year?

As ICE cars reappear en masse the degradation in air quality will be apparent to all and sundry very quickly and I suspect the citizens will begin to shout that they preferred it as it was. Certainly the younger people (maybe without cars) and the Gretas of the worlds will start asking difficult questions and demanding action.

This may result in zoned areas in major cities becoming zero emissions. Public transport will go electric asap, ditto deliveries and the demand for EVs may then rocket - subsidies or not.

Tesla is well placed...…...

Maybe in China where pollution is a big problem. But in the US? It ain't going to happen asap, not within a short time frame (ie, a year) because many consumers do not see EVs as a good return compared to ICE. I still see good demand for EVs, just not booming as predicted due to less smog experienced. Not everybody is all onboard going green. I know I'm not. I just love affordable fast cars. Saving the planet was a bonus when I got my M3P.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Something you will all like:

The uncertain future for China's electric car makers

"In Shenzhen, in almost every residential building there are two charging units. One out of 10 cars on the street are Teslas," she says.

Back in Shenzhen, Han Zhu says the rolling back of government subsidies won't put her off buying an electric vehicle. But rather than buying a Chinese marque, she has her eye on a Tesla.

"I think that they are totally different. I was super excited about Tesla but not other electric cars," she says.

 

[ProfTournesol]

SP will go between 480 - 500 today. Somebody really wants the SP low today. Bit hestitating if I should buy today at that price because of the weekend. We don't know what the clown will do in the White House and the situation in New york is escalating fast.

 

[replicant]

This is the FSD video to watch:

Pranay Pathole on Twitter

Seems to be calculating risk scores at the bottom left.

That is an old video that was published at Autopilot AI months ago.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

My compliments for the self-moderating capacity of this board.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

There's video too: "Watch Tesla Autopilot Automatically Stop Red Light (Beta Testing)" (0:53)

The timing of the FSD release will be interesting. In the current circumstances it would be nice to see this released in Q2 (prior to the Q1 ER) provided they are confident regarding the Q1 figures. It would remove any uncertainty people might have regarding Q2.

The short term impact regarding deferred revenue will be very nice but it will also permanently increase automotive gross margins. I would also expect the FSD take rate to increase by at least 10%. I think there are a lot of people that see city driving as crucial to making FSD worth the cost.

Good for the short term, great for the medium term.

 

[jerry33]

I don't get that.. Yes, prices may be higher because of volatility, and going forward volatility may drop and so will the option prices, but at some point they will be higher again.. it's up and down constantly.. At that later point the SP will probably be higher, that's what we all believe, and thus the option price will also be a lot higher, with the leverage.. So no, I don't think volatility means you should stay away from options.. You will just have lower leverage.. Still more than the leverage of 1 of holding the share itself though..

I think the main issue is that the risk level remains the same but with lower leverage.

 

[jerry33]

I know $2T is a lot of stimulus, but I still feel like there is a disconnect between the market and what is happening in the world. I have gone to recording Nightly News with Lestor Holt on NBC everyday because I feel like they give good updates on that which will not be discussed on this forum. Tesla can't build a car if a single supplier isn't shipping.

This is not true because it depends on what supplier. Cars can be delivered with deficiencies to be installed later, as long as they are not critical or safety related. This actually happened with the 2013 cars. No reason it can't happen today.

 

[kbM3]

Interesting article about VW’s problems.

Most shocking part is that they may have to collaborate with Mercedes to develop an OS.

just amazes me that these giant companies, have to collaborate just to compete with tiny Tesla

Volkswagen ID.3 still suffering from software issues - electrive.com

 

[LN1_Casey]

My compliments for the self-moderating capacities of this board.

We're trying to summon back @Fact Checking and @KarenRei to the board.

 

[jerry33]

Interesting article about VW’s problems.

Most shocking part is that they may have to collaborate with Mercedes to develop an OS.

just amazes me that these giant companies, have to collaborate just to compete with tiny Tesla

Volkswagen ID.3 still suffering from software issues - electrive.com

Have you every actually worked for a large company? The one thing we always hated to hear was "IT has developed a new in-house program". This almost always increased the amount of time it took to do a particular function by ten.

 

[hacer]

The markets are down about 30% from last month. Is that not a big enough discount for the contraction you’re anticipating?

The SP500 is similar to what it was exactly 2 years ago. Are you saying that the coming contraction is no bigger than the economic growth that took place during the last 2 years? US GDP grew 2.9% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. So you expect about a 5.2% contraction in GDP then?

 

[larmor]

What are the chances that tesla starts to manufacture their own sub systems and parts due to the parts supplied backlog? Is there an estimate of what percentage of the Tesla cars have parts from outside? There was a time when the CEO of fiat- Chrysler had referenced auto manufacturers as companies that just assemble parts.
This shutdown might be beneficial to Tesla in this respect.

 

[Drax7]

My cynical view is that if we really have a large number of deaths, most of them will be old people leaving an inheritance for younger people, who are more inclined to buy an EV. This Corona thing may be a catalyst for the EV thing, at least when all the dust has settled.

wow is this nonsense

 

[Prunesquallor]

My compliments for the self-moderating capacities of this board.

@Artful Dodger scares us.

 

[brantse]

I'm seeing max pain as either $490 or $495, depending on which site you look at. Who has faith that MM's can get the price there?

 

[ProfTournesol]

I'm seeing max pain as either $490 or $495, depending on which site you look at. Who has faith that MM's can get the price there?

I think they will manage it. there is too much uncertanty in the market, check yesterday. Nasdaq way positive, TSLA pushed down. Still it puzzles me, I don't think Q1 will be that bad, I even expect some positive news regarding the ramp-up of production in China, and hopefully they will share information about the supply chain being able to deliver enough parts. Maybe, maybe they even give a bit more detail on the progress in Berlin and China Expansion, I don't see any slowdown there whatsoever. the negative will be in Q2 and maybe Q3, less production wich will result in less deliveries. But if the orange guy persisst in starting the factories, maybe the damage can be controlled.

If the orange guy starts the economy again, hopefully Tesla will implement a very strict policy (like china) for their employees to get them safe and keep them safe.

 

[MartinAustin]

pre-market volume took off around 7am EST... haven't seen any TSLA-specific news though...

 

[ProfTournesol]

pre-market volume took off around 7am EST... haven't seen any TSLA-specific news though...

No, there is none. A MM wants to have the SP down. Journalist will pick up anything from now on as the reason.