Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

My Fidelity page was showing a big 500 contract put today at 500 per share. Not sure what max pain is, but gotta think buying calls over 510 is a lottery. Selling volatility with short term covered calls seems like a low risk way to capture a little bit back from weakness on C19 uncertainty.
I think deliveries will be on the new high end, but we will be over 100,000 C19 people today and with stimulus behind us, not much good news is likely for the next 3-6 weeks.

 

[Ameliorate]

My Fidelity page was showing a big 500 contract put today at 500 per share. Not sure what max pain is, but gotta think buying calls over 510 is a lottery. Selling volatility with short term covered calls seems like a low risk way to capture a little bit back from weakness on C19 uncertainty.
I think deliveries will be on the new high end, but we will be over 100,000 C19 people today and with stimulus behind us, not much good news is likely for the next 3-6 weeks.

I certainly wouldn't extrapolate much from that. If I understand correctly you think somebody buying 500 put contracts (275k) is indicative of big money telling us what direction we can expect the stock to go? Many people could afford that, never with any intention to execute the contract (25,000,000) Small fish can buy contracts, we just don't execute them.

 

[dw4ngg]

So yeah guys, what just happened the last 3 days was a classic bull trap rally. I did use the opportunity to convert my 403(b) to straight cash though, it was a nice exit point. I hope those of you who made bank the last 3 days on TSLA calls know what to do here.

Sold my remaining LEAPs yday and bought some short term puts to hedge. But also used some of LEAP proceeds to increase my TSLA share count

Holding the rest as cash now in case this truly was a bull trap and we have further down to go.

Edit for those who don’t like negativity: my core shares have remained untouched and actually increased; also started some SPY put positions expiring Apr 17

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Thanks! Picked up a few shares at 495.

How did you pull that off? I see a lowest price of 497.75.

 

[Prunesquallor]

How did you pull that off? I see a lowest price of 497.75.

 

[Krugerrand]

So yeah guys, what just happened the last 3 days was a classic bull trap rally. I did use the opportunity to convert my 403(b) to straight cash though, it was a nice exit point. I hope those of you who made bank the last 3 days on TSLA calls know what to do here.

So, a $50 (10%) swing over 3 days is a bull trap? Please, you’re starting to believe your own nonsense.

All that’s going on is the usual volatility with a touch of MM manipulation to hit max painish.

Won’t say what I hope for day traders.

 

[Mo City]

How did you pull that off? I see a lowest price of 497.75.

$494.03 according to Google.

 

[brantse]

What websites are you looking at to get max pain? Also it seems like marker makers usually get the stock price to max pain by Friday. Wouldn’t it be a good idea to trade options around this number?

Here are two of them. I'm sure there's others, but these two come up when you do a web search.
Stock Option Max Pain
Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

That's the idea. If you have confidence in their ability to hone in on that price, you can buy/sell options just to keep yourself on the "safe" side of the trade. I sold a few shares yesterday, to better my price this morning, but didn't have enough conviction to sell call options on my shares.

 

[keydiver]

President Trump just criticized GM publicly regarding ventilator effort "don't do anything right". First, GM won't be able to deliver till June/July(?). Second, GM wants top dollars. CNBC did mention as a context on how quickly Tesla could acquire the 1k ventilators.

CNN also just said that GM wants government money to pay for retooling their plants to make ventilators!

 

[Ameliorate]

So, a $50 (10%) swing over 3 days is a bull trap? Please, you’re starting to believe your own nonsense.

All that’s going on is the usual volatility with a touch of MM manipulation to hit max painish.

Won’t say what I hope for day traders.

I'd love to hear both sides of the story, or rather understand Quantitative Easing better. Even if we get a negative news cycle for 2 weeks (likely) what effect does QE have on stocks as it trickles into the markets? I think it's likely this injection could counter negative news with the buying pressure. Then you've got the 5 DMA turned up, crossed the 10 DMA. MACD Golden cross (more prevalent on indexes as opposed to TSLA right now) if you're into technicals (i'm not particularly, but I suspect the "dead cat bounce" theory is based upon them). I don't see all the doom and gloom personally. Yes I have seen the charts predicting a drop to DOW 14,000. I think the feds role lately has been to stop exactly that from happening.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'd love to hear both sides of the story, or rather understand QE better. Even if we get a negative news cycle for 2 weeks (likely) what effect does QE have on stocks as it trickles into the markets? I think it's likely this injection could counter negative news with the buying pressure. Then you've got the 5 DMA turned up, crossed the 10 DMA. MACD Golden cross (more prevalent on indexes as opposed to TSLA right now) if you're into technicals (i'm not particularly, but I suspect the "dead cat bounce" theory is based upon them). I don't see all the doom and gloom personally. Yes I have seen the charts predicting a drop to DOW 14,000. I think the feds role lately has been to stop exactly that from happening.

I don't do TA and I think it's voodoo but the last 3 days rally has brought the 20 DMA up high to the point that enough of a drop now will actually create a death cross in Dow. Yes, this is why I believe in TA as much as I believe in magic.

 

[SOULPEDL]

President Trump just criticized GM publicly regarding ventilator effort "don't do anything right". First, GM won't be able to deliver till June/July(?). Second, GM wants top dollars. CNBC did mention as a context on how quickly Tesla could acquire the 1k ventilators.

This reminds me of my "should cost" comments last week. Most companies just cannot do what Tesla does as we've seen so far. Tesla will come in at half the price, dual/quad ventilators upgrades, self-sterilizing, an app for the patient so music in their hearing aids syncs with breathing, all delivered by Q4, lol.

Kidding aside, I have no confidence in most industries of the "past" including some of the best brands. My whole life, corporate always placed Creativity and Risk Taking up high verbally, then did the opposite with everyone in isolated sand boxes and their own agendas, all looking and sounding tall and smart. Can you tell I've had a few stupid managers in my life? Many out for themselves, and nowhere near mission oriented like saving the planet. Only $'s. Huge difference for efficiency anything!

I do expect a touchdown from Tesla on this respirator. I have personally done all the steps required to cut and mold plastic, print PCBs, etc. When you have the design data, it can go pretty quickly. They will build 2 versions IMO. One an exact replica, and one or more with improvements, then decide soon which one to ramp in the end, if needed.

What a perfect PR opportunity to showcase the future of manufacturing in the US, and what it means to have a real business goal, top down and all forward leaning.

 

[X Fan]

RE: end of quarter numbers.

I had my Blue X in for service this morning-Charlotte. The parking lot was full of new 3s, a couple of S & Xs and about a dozen White and Grey Ys (all had dark interior). Very few were prepped....I wonder how it will get all done by the 31st?

btw: the Y's are spectacular looking in person.....

 

[SOULPEDL]

CNN also just said that GM wants government money to pay for retooling their plants to make ventilators!

Oh man, they are digging their own grave with this approach.
AND this makes GM look extremely weak financially, both now and future.

 

[dc_h]

CNN also just said that GM wants government money to pay for retooling their plants to make ventilators!

I'll bet Tesla is having some cool Apollo 13 type discussions, converting existing ventilation for cars and SpaceX for ventilators and setting up 3d printing for any parts they don't have. They'll spend 5-10 million and have production moving this week.

 

[copyhacker]

@KarenRei @Fact Checking

Please come back, your wisdom and contributions are missed!

This must be what it’s like when Mom and Dad teach the kids a lesson by refusing to do any more chores.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Oof.

View attachment 526406

Wow, such loyalty. This after GM stood by the president's EPA throughout its battle with CARB. Hopefully, Barra opens her eyes.

 

[Eugene Ash]

I'd love to hear both sides of the story, or rather understand Quantitative Easing better. Even if we get a negative news cycle for 2 weeks (likely) what effect does QE have on stocks as it trickles into the markets? I think it's likely this injection could counter negative news with the buying pressure. Then you've got the 5 DMA turned up, crossed the 10 DMA. MACD Golden cross (more prevalent on indexes as opposed to TSLA right now) if you're into technicals (i'm not particularly, but I suspect the "dead cat bounce" theory is based upon them). I don't see all the doom and gloom personally. Yes I have seen the charts predicting a drop to DOW 14,000. I think the feds role lately has been to stop exactly that from happening.

Right now they (Federal reserve) pumping in liquidity to just avoid collapse and sort of put ever everything on pause.
Bill Dudley (President of Dallas Federal reserve bank) this morning on post cv inflation: we don't know.

In light of this: TIPS if you have to have bonds in your portfolio. And for equities: productive companies with pricing power: TSLA, of course

 

[StealthP3D]

I certainly wouldn't extrapolate much from that. If I understand correctly you think somebody buying 500 put contracts (275k) is indicative of big money telling us what direction we can expect the stock to go? Many people could afford that, never with any intention to execute the contract (25,000,000) Small fish can buy contracts, we just don't execute them.

The biggest fallacy of that is not whether the buyer was a big fish or a little fish it's that big fish have a better idea of where the market is headed than little fish do. Never let someone else's bet make you second guess your own.

 

[gtrplyr1]

The big 3 automakers have been a fight for their life for a while now. I fully expected them to implode way before the Coronavirus crisis, this situation will just accelerate the inevitable. In once sense, I much preferred if Tesla just did what they do and we could watch as the big 3 folded in a more organic manner ... too many reasons to go into on a single post but the bottom line is the "culture" of those companies has been an issue for years ... management and employees but unfortunately this crisis is upon us.

Tesla will get through this and come out much stronger on the other side .... of this I'm confident.

Very proud to be a shareholder in a company that really seems to care about humanity ....

Cheers to the longs ....