Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

This Deutsche news is humongous. Lets start ratcheting up ahead of S&P inclusion!

 

[Zero CO2]

Ok, this guy is raising the issue of returned vehicles.
I'm thinking customers have 3 days to return the vehicle for full refund, and that Tesla would be netting returns out.

no one is returning a Tesla once they have it 3 days ... i would get rid of a lot of other unnecessary expenses first ... just sayin

 

[Singuy]

Yep, I agree. It won’t be long before people are burning down their businesses for the insurance money. Shadow economies will start up. Suicide rates will climb. No one is going to self-quarantine for 3 months.

Once the curves flatten, no warning about long tails or future recurrences will matter. The medical infrastructure will have to cope (or not).

Health care is not exempt from all this. The longer stay at home orders are placed, the lower admission rate we see in hospitals in areas with no exploding Covid cases. Also elective surgery are not allowed which is their money makers.

I say this because my hospital network in central FL is losing 2 million/day due to a lower than projected Covid cases plus Disney closure. In fact I sat at home yesterday to help reduce payroll hours, something our nurses are already doing. Next week going forward all pharmacist will only be getting 32hour vs our usual 40hrs schedule. If this continues for 3 more months then I see layoffs coming. Just to put a number on things, our admission rate fell 32% since shelter in place and Disney closed.

 

[StealthP3D]

If any car factory is closed more than 30 days I will be surprised.

I'm pretty sure Ford and GM production will be shut down longer than 30 days. Because they want to be shut down to conserve capital. Their dealers have more inventory than they know what to do with.

Meanwhile, Tesla inventory channels will drain pretty quickly and they WANT to re-open production. If they are taking advantage of this shut-down to make major efficiency upgrades to their line they might be happy with a 30-day shutdown because such changes can take a while to make depending upon how extensive they are.

 

[Bobbyducati]

not the start iw as hoping for. hopefully we pick up after the first hour.

 

[Singuy]

not the start iw as hoping for. hopefully we pick up after the first hour.

Max pain is 500. Exuberance can't beat out money makers. Infact the only thing P&D did was to help MM get to max pain today. Hey at least max pain helped us a few times in the past and kept TSLA from tanking even though it should have. Now the opposite is happening.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm pretty sure Ford and GM production will be shut down longer than 30 days. Because they want to be shut down to conserve capital. Their dealers have more inventory than they know what to do with.

Meanwhile, Tesla inventory channels will drain pretty quickly and they WANT to re-open production. If they are taking advantage of this shut-down to make major efficiency upgrades to their line they might be happy with a 30-day shutdown because such changes can take a while to make depending upon how extensive they are.

I would REALLY be interested to know what (if anything) is going on at Fremont right now. I haven't heard a peep.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Max pain is 500. Exuberance can't beat out money makers. Infact the only thing P&D did was to help MM get to max pain today. Hey at least max pain helped us a few times in the past and kept TSLA from tanking even though it should have. Now the opposite is happening.

Yes, massive dump of 2M+ shares at the open pushed it down 10 points in the first minute of trading to below $500.

 

[ggr]

Quick question. How does Tesla define a delivery?

I'm dealing with a dumb dumb on Twitter who is trying to cast doubt on the definition.

It's discussed at the bottom of their letter: Tesla Q1 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.

Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.

 

[Singuy]

I would REALLY be interested to know what (if anything) is going on at Fremont right now. I haven't heard a peep.

Read my post a few pages back.

 

[LJS22]

Yes, massive dump of 2M+ shares at the open pushed it down 10 points in the first minute of trading to below $500.

Probably the stupid shares short sellers were going to dump after a bad numbers report.

jk likely the profit takers.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Max pain is 500. Exuberance can't beat out money makers. Infact the only thing P&D did was to help MM get to max pain today. Hey at least max pain helped us a few times in the past and kept TSLA from tanking even though it should have. Now the opposite is happening.

Patience. This is too big to be held at $500.

 

[Krugerrand]

If this is your definition of climbing fast, I don't want to be stuck behind you going up a staircase.

Thank you! Not even going to blame you for the coffee stains all over my Tesla blanket.

The Twilight Zone is a whole lot more desirable a place to live when people can find the positive and/or humor in situation.

 

[Sancho]

Today they are bringing back an old favorite: The Battle for 500. It's a classic.

In the old days there was a chance that the MMs would be overwhelmed sometime during the day, and the SP would run much higher. I'm less optimistic in the age of pandemic whether there's enough investment appetite to push through, but we will find out soon enough.

 

[EV forever]

If this is your definition of climbing fast, I don't want to be stuck behind you going up a staircase.

Well it was at open, but I had not considered the MMD starting early today
Hey, I am in CA and it is early and I haven't had coffee yet. I actually woke up early because fidelity would not take my limit orders for selling options last night.
Yep, you definitely don't want to be behind me while climbing stairs (why would I ever climb stairs when there are elevators?), but following me is the best place to be when I am in my Model 3. My red speed demon will clear the roads for you

 

[Nocturnal]

So a Q1 profit, as Deutsche bank and presumably others now expect, is enough to get us into the S&P 500 right? Surely there are enough companies that have taken huge hits to their valuations for there to be room.

 

[dww12]

This is just dumb, I told myself not to go all in again for a while, but $500 after a record Q1 delivery report, no change in guidance and we still have solar roof surprise coming. Shares or calls, shares or calls?

 

[dww12]

This is just dumb, I told myself not to go all in again for a while, but $500 after a record Q1 delivery report, no change in guidance and we still have solar roof surprise coming. Shares or calls, shares or calls?

Where is @Curt Renz ? Did you buy back? It’s still below where you sold.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So a Q1 profit, as Deutsche bank and presumably others now expect, is enough to get us into the S&P 500 right? Surely there are enough companies that have taken huge hits to their valuations for there to be room.

Macy's got dropped this week, replaced by Carrier. The number of retail and oil/gas companies that are about to be dropped is astronomical.

 

[XHabjab]

The statewide order doesn't nullify the county order since it specifically allows cities and counties to implement more stringent requirements (but not more lenient ones). I suppose Tesla could try to argue that clause only applies to the nature of the requirements but not to who it applies to but I doubt that would be successful in the midst of a medical emergency. I do think as the threat dies off, legal arguments will have a better chance of success and, more likely, Tesla will be able to convince the County Health Dept. they have safeguards and protocols in place that allow it to manufacture safely. If the county stubbornly refuses to let them start manufacturing then Tesla will have to convince a judge that the order is no longer necessary for public safety. As long as Tesla was willing to potentially pay the daily fines for such a violation, they could continue to manufacture until a judge could hear the case. But I doubt it will come to that.

More likely, the President would issue an order declaring the epidemic is to the stage that cities, counties and states cannot prohibit certain kinds of essential economic activity.

The people of California want the state to get back to work, pressure will only build, and pandemics tend to not last that long anyway. Since Tesla has manufacturing capacity in China to tide them over from a cashflow perspective, they can outlast a good many California businesses anyway.

Agree, although I see it as bigger than the pandemic.

The numbers we are somewhat watching are

• Unknown status
• Those who test with a positive
• Hospitalized
• Deaths

There is now a significant number of people that have had it and have survived. We (more accurately our politicians) need to decide what to do with this growing group.

I see the death rate being the driver for the decision making process of when to reopen businesses. The pandemic will go on for quite a while (I'll let someone else speculate how long), so these deaths will continue. But all this shelter in place stuff brings out the worst in society. I expect all this sitting around at home unemployed and no NBA, NHL or college sports on tv will inspire a rise in domestic violence, murder rates and robberies. These kinds of secondary problems will get politicians trying to get things back to "normal" well before the C19 deaths are over.

Survivors of C19 are skewed towards young people, which fits Tesla's employee demographic. Tesla's work force will be in better shape than the OEMs in the struggle for normalcy.

And Tesla has proven experience working in the "infected" environment, in China. GM, Ford et al have Chinese factories too but they are more detached from our mostly American influence.