Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MTL_HABS1909]

Wait... is that possible? What was TSLA in 2013, like $60? And your investment was cut in half 3 times? Impressive.
Are you sure you haven't been spending it along the way?

You keep asking such silly questions. Just because someone started investing in 2013, doesn’t mean they haven’t added much more over time. Maybe it started as a small investment, with big purchases at ATHs along the way. Then when it crashed....value is cut in half. I mean come on man. With these questions/logic, now I’m starting to understand why you’d be the type to panic sell.

 

[dc_h]

Ugh. I had been timing this stock pretty damn well on the run up and back down. The past week or two have crushed me. Serious FOMO. I believe deeply in this stock, short, medium, and long term. While also think the macros the past week are insane and how could I jump in a huge position right now. Also, the only reason I’m not buying and turning away is because I want to be able to purchase even more at a lower cost basis. I’ve got a ton of cash to work with but not unlimited. I full see this as a bull trap. Sigh.

Any advice for me other than simply buy and hold strong?

Any suggested entry points?

thank you all!

best,
Gene

I think earnings are going to be good, close to break even, and guidance will be better then the rest of the industry. F, GM, VW and other legacy are burning billions in cash flow and will all either default or require bailout and backing by governments. Tesla can afford for Model 3 demand in the USA and Europe to decline by 50% and fill the void with the Y and have higher ASP then 2019, and add 150-200k cars in Shanghai. They start 2021 in potentially better shape then 2020 and ready to continue 50-100% growth as the rest of the industry is financially hamstrung. Add Tesla continuing to reduce the cost of building each car and they can afford to cut prices 10% or more once Germany is online. In the meantime they can reduce prices, but it doesn’t seem needed for now.
I sold a few shares over 800 and bought back 100 lower and that’s all I’ve sold this year, except covered calls.

 

[Sancho]

Yea who would have predicted Tesla letting employees go, shuttling down a factory, in the middle of a pandemic, and their stock price is surging. If I had just been given the headlines the last two weeks I’d be waiting for it to be under 100.

Short term moves are often unpredictable, and I’ve been more wrong than right trying to play them, but this one seemed like a classic inverse case of “sell the news”.

As it started to become apparent that Tesla would have to close Fremont (representing nearly half of the company’s production) the market freaked, and the SP dropped quickly. Once the closure actually happened, and investors could pause and see that the closure was likely only for a limited time, the SP started to rise.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Model Y E16: Electric Motor Comparison MY-M3, Industry review of Electric Motors, Table for Sale!"

Youtube Channel "Munro Live" | 45 min ago

 

[Artful Dodger]

If I had just been given the headlines the last ANY two weeks I’d be waiting for it to be under 100.

FTFY.

 

[PeterJA]

Imo the most important thing right now is that Tesla have learned a lot over the last decade. They started from scratch, had to learn a lot of things and catch up with a competition with had 50 years headstart. And they are there now! Model 3 ramp was tricky because it was new, Model Y is going much faster. Model 3 had a lot of issues Munro didn’t like, Model Y is getting mostly praise. I think a good analogy is SpaceX, their first lauches failed, but now their simulations are accurate so when they launch a new project, the chance of it being a failure is many times smaller than their first launches. Same with Tesla’s factory designs, their simulations are much more accurate and their ramps run into much fewer problems. Thus we can expect that Model Y will ramp much faster than Model 3, Model 3 Shanghai will ramp much faster than Freemont Model 3, Model Y China will ramp faster than Model 3 and Cybertruck will ramp fast. Because Tesla has learned and their methods are now verified and honed....

Tesla Giga Shanghai Phase 2 Construction Accelerates As Parts Production Capacity Expands

In a show of unbelievable speed and fortitude, Tesla China’s work on Giga Shanghai’s Phase 2 seems to be moving faster than the construction on Phase 1.

 

[Unpilot]

"Model Y E16: Electric Motor Comparison MY-M3, Industry review of Electric Motors, Table for Sale!"

Youtube Channel "Munro Live" | 45 min ago

Nice video ...thanks for sharing.
But man that bit at the end as he is trying to action off the tires and stands
Sounds like he is a bit desperate for cash!

 

[SOULPEDL]

You keep asking such silly questions. Just because someone started investing in 2013, doesn’t mean they haven’t added much more over time. Maybe it started as a small investment, with big purchases at ATHs along the way. Then when it crashed....value is cut in half. I mean come on man. With these questions/logic, now I’m starting to understand why you’d be the type to panic sell.

It was half silly, and a late night. We were talking about having all yr money in TSLA and losing half. But u got in starting at $60. Unless it went below 60 since, you must have had a cushion that I did not have in 2016 when I got in. So when I say HALF (sounding like my ex) I do mean I lost half of all my TSLA holdings. So you did not lose half of your investment made in 2013. Maybe 49%, but not 50%. I also wasn't feeling sorry for your loss on shares bought at $60, so I didn't think you understood my pain, or at least were not showing any empathy.

And to prove I was not quite awake last night, I made sure to try for a sale this AM before going to sleep, and got up to see if it traded, lol.

A word of caution, I get silly sometimes.

 

[Pras]

Seems LR M3 is seeing good demand in China.

RayTesla️ on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

Proving again that Ihor's S3 numbers are not of any value for TSLA, as of 4/1 he said 15.94 million shares shorted when it was really 19.69 million shares.

I have a slilightly different take on Ihor/S3 Partners numbers: the groups that subscribe to his service (and provide his raw data) do NOT include Market Makers and other large hedge funds. These are the groups actually perpetuating this unprecedented multi-year Short campaign (AJ; UBS; Citron; etc.)

As such, Ihor's numbers are actually useful for statistics: they have a strong negative correlation to the official figures:

• meaning 'short selling' is likely MUCH larger than shown by the bi-weekly NASDAQ Short Interest numbers
• Ihor's numbers can be used to reduce the std err of estimate for a statistic model of short selling

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

I just saw a 5-minute commercial on YouTube for Motley Fool Stock Advisor. Paraphrasing: "FSD will be the next Internet or iPhone. To get rich, ignore the automakers and invest in the AI chip maker for dozens of them." (probably Nvidia or Intel-Mobileye)

They did mention Tesla as one of many competitors. Didn't mention Tesla's vast advantage in training data or the fact that Tesla makes their own FSD chips. Didn't mention that the first mover in electric robotaxis will kill all the ICE ones in the womb.

My conclusion: Many investors -- or at least the target market of Motley Fool -- don't understand Tesla's lead in this "next iPhone" technology. When they finally wake up, look out TSLA. Panic buy time.

While driving recently, FSD did something new I hadn’t noticed before - it lane adjusted whenever vehicles, most notably tractor trailers, started to hug one lane line.

So, if I was in the left lane to a tractor trailer and it started to drift toward the lane line to the right of my car, instead of my car staying dead center in its lane, the car moved a bit left in my lane. If the trailer moved back to the right, my car would center itself again.

The car did this with vehicles from both sides. Maybe it’s been doing that for awhile, but I only just noticed it - perhaps because it can be real subtle at times.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It was half silly, and a late night. We were talking about having all yr money in TSLA and losing half. But u got in starting at $60. Unless it went below 60 since, you must have had a cushion that I did not have in 2016 when I got in. So when I say HALF (sounding like my ex) I do mean I lost half of all my TSLA holdings. So you did not lose half of your investment made in 2013. Maybe 49%, but not 50%. I also wasn't feeling sorry for your loss on shares bought at $60, so I didn't think you understood my pain, or at least were not showing any empathy.

And to prove I was not quite awake last night, I made sure to try for a sale this AM before going to sleep, and got up to see if it traded, lol.

A word of caution, I get silly sometimes.

And before u try and make my comment sound really dumb, I get that someone could lose 90% of holdings even though you started at $60. Hopefully u get my simple point which was a question not fact. I'm silly, absentminded, bordering on schitzoid with TSLA, but not stupid.

 

[Zero CO2]

This is a good answer and probably not wrong. Thank you.

At this $600 I could buy into my previous COVID share number and have a cost basis of $46. Previously my cost basis was ~$300. Maybe I'll just do that and then take your advice, adding a few every week or so until I hit my goal. I was really hoping to just pull the trigger at ~$400 for my full amount but that is a n00b play and I, despite being very lucky thus far, am in fact, a n00b.

Thank you all for the excellent continued advice.

Plaid Cybertrucks for all in the few years my friends.

Best,
Gene

it is fools errand to try to time your buys if we never hit $400 again then what ? below is how i have accumulated over time starting late 2018 my avg price has crept up to ~$300/share but as many have commented and I firmly believe also TSLA is a 10X from here so even the shares purchased at $840 will look genius in a few years ... you can guess which were limit orders vs market orders

I had been following TSLA years before (2015) and was not convinced until I bought my model S and started to do real HW on the company ...

DATE PRICE
12/24/2018 $ 298.00
3/21/2019 $ 275.32
4/26/2019 $ 233.64
4/30/2019 $ 240.00
5/17/2019 $ 222.22
5/22/2019 $ 199.30
5/22/2019 $ 195.00
6/3/2019 $ 180.00
8/5/2019 $ 225.00
8/16/2019 $ 218.67
9/24/2019 $ 230.00
2/24/2020 $ 840.00(even this looked great when we were over $900/share)
2/25/2020 $ 800.00
2/27/2020 $ 725.00
2/27/2020 $ 683.95
3/6/2020 $ 690.00
3/9/2020 $ 610.00
3/12/2020 $ 563.00
3/16/2020 $ 450.00
3/17/2020 $ 423.00
3/18/2020 $ 355.00
4/1/2020 $ 477.69
4/1/2020 $ 478.02

 

[Singuy]

It might still pull back. But it might not. That's why I invest on the basis of the future value I see in the company and don't worry about the short-term price action. Because once people figure out there is a lot of growth and margin improvement left, there are no more cheap entry points. I've made a lot of profit by buying "over-priced" companies like MSFT and SBUX in the late 80's early 90's. You pay the premium to get the steady growth for years. Unfortunately, I missed AMZN because I constantly thought it was too expensive. And I didn't know how much innovation was possible in the field of retail. Sometimes you just need to suck it up.

Bought Amazon at am expensive 800 thinking if I average a growth of 7% a year then it'll be okay for this large cap. It apparently 2.5x my money way before Tesla or AMD.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

It was half silly, and a late night. We were talking about having all yr money in TSLA and losing half. But u got in starting at $60. Unless it went below 60 since, you must have had a cushion that I did not have in 2016 when I got in. So when I say HALF (sounding like my ex) I do mean I lost half of all my TSLA holdings. So you did not lose half of your investment made in 2013. Maybe 49%, but not 50%. I also wasn't feeling sorry for your loss on shares bought at $60, so I didn't think you understood my pain, or at least were not showing any empathy.

And to prove I was not quite awake last night, I made sure to try for a sale this AM before going to sleep, and got up to see if it traded, lol.

A word of caution, I get silly sometimes.

P.S: I wasn’t the one who got in at $60. That was @Creekstalker.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yea who would have predicted Tesla letting employees go, shuttling down a factory, in the middle of a pandemic, and their stock price is surging. If I had just been given the headlines the last two weeks I’d be waiting for it to be under 100.

And you’d be woefully uninformed.

Temporarily reducing workers (btw, everybody seems to forget to mention the email said ALL employee benefits remain intact!), temporarily stopping production, blah, blah, blah is NOT equivalent to OEMs doing the same.

While all others deserve their SP reduction, Tesla does not. Financials are different, growth potential different, activities during the pandemic are different, activities prior to the pandemic are different. There’s just no comparison between Tesla and the OEMs.

I’m annoyed simple because every time it looks like it should be clear sailing for Tesla, some ******* **** shows up to put yet another obstacle in the way.

On the bright side, I know that all the obstacles and hardships makes Tesla stronger (and other OEMs weaker).

But man, why you got to be like that?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

it is fools errand to try to time your buys if we never hit $400 again then what ? below is how i have accumulated over time starting late 2018 my avg price has crept up to ~$300/share but as many have commented and I firmly believe also TSLA is a 10X from here so even the shares purchased at $840 will look genius in a few years ... you can guess which were limit orders vs market orders

I had been following TSLA years before (2015) and was not convinced until I bought my model S and started to do real HW on the company ...

DATE PRICE
12/24/2018 $ 298.00
3/21/2019 $ 275.32
4/26/2019 $ 233.64
4/30/2019 $ 240.00
5/17/2019 $ 222.22
5/22/2019 $ 199.30
5/22/2019 $ 195.00
6/3/2019 $ 180.00
8/5/2019 $ 225.00
8/16/2019 $ 218.67
9/24/2019 $ 230.00
2/24/2020 $ 840.00(even this looked great when we were over $900/share)
2/25/2020 $ 800.00
2/27/2020 $ 725.00
2/27/2020 $ 683.95
3/6/2020 $ 690.00
3/9/2020 $ 610.00
3/12/2020 $ 563.00
3/16/2020 $ 450.00
3/17/2020 $ 423.00
3/18/2020 $ 355.00
4/1/2020 $ 477.69
4/1/2020 $ 478.02

Just curious: what made you start buying again from 2/24/2020?

 

[Krugerrand]

So the world is sitting at home (maybe in their Tesla) on the internet, getting savey about Tesla's future, and watching the competition push out EV release dates. I bet this was afterhours retail folks moving retirement funds from like GOLD to TSLA. You know, into a higher a valued company.

Meh. I’m killing Candy Crush right now. They had unlimited play for a whole week!

 

[Zero CO2]

Just curious: what made you start buying again from 2/24/2020?

FOMO I realized that folks were starting to really understand Tesla and we might never see anything under $1000 again .. the the pandemic hit .. and I liquidated other positions and started accumulating again

also i was modelling deliveries at close to 550,000 before downturn so I was paying a premium to my fundamental analysis any shares over $710 i overpaid ...

 

[Krugerrand]

Seeing your posts makes me feel old. pre Apr 2013, stock price was about $35. After the Q1 2013 earnings call was a rocket ship ride.

Anyway, there were more than 3 events (the most significant ones highlighted):
battery fires - Sep 2013 (stock dropped from ~190 to under 120)
model X launch hell - Jan 2016 (stock dropped from ~ 240 to 150)
funding secured SEC lawsuit - Aug 2018 (stock dropped from ~ 390 to under 260)
Q1 2019 deliveries - Dec 2018 (stock dropped from ~360 to 180) the last time that FUD had any real significant credit left.
Covid-19 - Feb 2020 (stock dropped from 915+ down to ~360)

With Feb 2020 being so recent, it should serve to remind us that there will be future events. Ride it out if you can stomach the volatility, trade it if you have the guts, or diversify if you must.

You forgot Feb 2017? 2018? Brexit where SP tumbled from $280ish? to $140 and people here were losing their minds.