LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I have fallen back on my stalking for the last month, but I've not caught this before now. Do you know when they started?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I have fallen back on my stalking for the last month, but I've not caught this before now. Do you know when they started?
JusRelax
Active Member
For used vehicles, they have provided pictures on their website for at least a year I'm pretty sure. New vehicles don't get pictures, though. I think the assumption is that, since they're new, you can assume that they'll be pristine.
Correction: looks like it's been almost a year now. Tesla Used site now includes actual pictures!
It seems to me that many of us are speculating on specific definition step changes that will suddenly propel Tesla to a new level. We have been trained to expect that since Model S, X, 3 and Y plus Semi, Roadster and Cybertruck. Add to that Solar Roof, PowerPack, and the continuing flurry of gigantic utility level battery installations. Then GF-2, GF-3, GF-4 and we are compelled to think of major events. Notwithstanding all of those exciting developments, including P85D, then P85D and a continuing series of product innovations...
The greatest improvements of all are in continuous improvement, often with minimal drama. Production volumes rise, quality improves, remote service becomes a practical reality, maintenance needs regularly diminish and reliability regularly improves. GF-3 regularly increases output while expansion continues and GF-3 keeps making progress. All this is happening in the midst of worldwide COVID-19 disruption. New models are quietly added to the GF-3 production mix.
Then we add the Sandy Munro Model Y teardown. Sure, he has criticisms. He's paid to be anal-compulsive. I've known his work for years. In the end look at the cost accounting component. When that comes out on Model Y we will know definitively what we already do know, that Model Y is cheaper to produce than is Model 3, itself a giant improvement on Model S. Further we begin to see a pathway for major production cost improvements for Model 3, already evident in GF-3. It's not cheap labor, but better production design and execution.
All of these things are why I think Tesla already is at cost parity with comparable ICE, and that Semi, Roadster Cybertruck are certain to benefit enormously from all these improvements. Battery Day will have drama, including the impacts of Maxwell, Hibar and continuing chemistry innovations from Nova Scotia. That drama will be greater than will be the continuing improvements in packaging, production, BMS, heat pumps, motors and electrical systems.
Beyond these is the virtuous cycle now becoming increasingly obvious. Lower weight, fewer parts, less labor, greater efficiency all combine to deliver substantially reduced costs.
The reduced costs, lower weight and increased efficiency will permit profitable production and delivery of the next smaller class of Tesla vehicles, the already discussed "designed in China" ones. We'll have endless speculation mostly centered on 'what car?" but we may be assured that it will be a class of vehicles , not one. It will also follow now-established Chinese practice (taken from al the global builders) of making 'world cars' that end out being produced in many markets. Simultaneously there will be rapid expansion of energy products, these tailored to suit national and broader market character.
Thus far this is nothing that has not been disclosed in generalities. The difference now is that Tesla is continuing to develop all of this during worldwide preoccupations and distractions. The never disclosed nor openly discussed factories in Mexico, Brazil, and probably others will come in 2022 just as the Texas plant will open. We have been forgetting how quickly Tesla needs to add new factories, Giga or otherwise. At least one more European location will arrive soon after and further China expansion si under way now to go far beyond the half-million vehicles per year.
Within the next six months we will have a really good idea of how capital and resource efficient Tesla has become. Current event are providing an entirely unwelcome stress test which is demonstrating just how resilient Tesla actually is today.
I am going longer even now.
The greatest improvements of all are in continuous improvement, often with minimal drama. Production volumes rise, quality improves, remote service becomes a practical reality, maintenance needs regularly diminish and reliability regularly improves. GF-3 regularly increases output while expansion continues and GF-3 keeps making progress. All this is happening in the midst of worldwide COVID-19 disruption. New models are quietly added to the GF-3 production mix.
Then we add the Sandy Munro Model Y teardown. Sure, he has criticisms. He's paid to be anal-compulsive. I've known his work for years. In the end look at the cost accounting component. When that comes out on Model Y we will know definitively what we already do know, that Model Y is cheaper to produce than is Model 3, itself a giant improvement on Model S. Further we begin to see a pathway for major production cost improvements for Model 3, already evident in GF-3. It's not cheap labor, but better production design and execution.
All of these things are why I think Tesla already is at cost parity with comparable ICE, and that Semi, Roadster Cybertruck are certain to benefit enormously from all these improvements. Battery Day will have drama, including the impacts of Maxwell, Hibar and continuing chemistry innovations from Nova Scotia. That drama will be greater than will be the continuing improvements in packaging, production, BMS, heat pumps, motors and electrical systems.
Beyond these is the virtuous cycle now becoming increasingly obvious. Lower weight, fewer parts, less labor, greater efficiency all combine to deliver substantially reduced costs.
The reduced costs, lower weight and increased efficiency will permit profitable production and delivery of the next smaller class of Tesla vehicles, the already discussed "designed in China" ones. We'll have endless speculation mostly centered on 'what car?" but we may be assured that it will be a class of vehicles , not one. It will also follow now-established Chinese practice (taken from al the global builders) of making 'world cars' that end out being produced in many markets. Simultaneously there will be rapid expansion of energy products, these tailored to suit national and broader market character.
Thus far this is nothing that has not been disclosed in generalities. The difference now is that Tesla is continuing to develop all of this during worldwide preoccupations and distractions. The never disclosed nor openly discussed factories in Mexico, Brazil, and probably others will come in 2022 just as the Texas plant will open. We have been forgetting how quickly Tesla needs to add new factories, Giga or otherwise. At least one more European location will arrive soon after and further China expansion si under way now to go far beyond the half-million vehicles per year.
Within the next six months we will have a really good idea of how capital and resource efficient Tesla has become. Current event are providing an entirely unwelcome stress test which is demonstrating just how resilient Tesla actually is today.
I am going longer even now.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I still don't understand how it takes 6 full business days to get our obvious bump to $600+ on the production and deliveries news. I guess that's a natural function of market making.
Strong like bull this stock.
Yes, I bought back in for the long term. You're welcome.
Yes, I bought back in for the long term. You're welcome.
Sandy Munroe's latest video - covering wiring, octo bottle and front motor assembly:
All indices are down, but three major stocks are up considerably: AMZN, NFLX and TSLA. I guess the market is starting to see TSLA as a safe haven, a recession proof stock. Thanks to strong Chinese demand and still a lot of Model Y demand to fulfill.
But I wouldn’t mind if GM and Ford need to be saved with a cash for clunkers program, as healthy car makers like Tesla would also profit from it.
But I wouldn’t mind if GM and Ford need to be saved with a cash for clunkers program, as healthy car makers like Tesla would also profit from it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
New Fords and GMs ARE clunkers.
People are valuing technology it seems. If you listen to Ray Dalio’s recent podcasts, he recommends investing in gold during this crisis but also investing in technology because it is ultimately innovation that will bring prosperity to society. Visionaries like Elon and Jeff Bezos are priceless and the fact that Tesla is doing so well in this situation means people and countries are coming to this realization. Plus, if you are part of a dying industry such as ICE manufacturing or oil, what better hedge could there be than TSLA.
Seems no one cares to mention the real reason we’re up today:
Some interesting news on Shanghai Gigafactory source for Long Range MIC M3 being LG Cells with slightly better range than Panasonic cells and assembled into packs in Shanghai Gigafactory:
adiggs
Well-Known Member
It will impact the trade ins that Tesla can take, or that Tesla buyers will be able to sell their old cars for, effectively increasing the cost of a new Tesla.
But yeah - nothing like the impact on GM / Ford / Etc. I'm seeing a trip through bankruptcy court for them.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Y'all think that some retail investors have decided to spend their stimulus checks on TSLA?
When is TSLA reporting for Q1? If investors are anticipating a profit which doesn't pan out, this might be another January run to $900 and drop after. I guess we all knew this kind of volatility is normal for TSLA when we signed up as investors, huh?
So far TSLA has taken a big dump on my thesis that the market has underestimated COVID related economic effects...
Are you his neighbor? I see a Titanium Metallic Model S next door.
(Best color BTW) His neighbor is probably like "I told you that you should have bought a Tesla".
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
On a run $614.42 @ 11:45 ET; SP above Upper-BB:
Great post. One nit is that I seem to recall Elon stating in calls that Model Y cost was the same (not cheaper) as Model 3 (Which is a pretty impressive improvement, considering the greater size and heat pump inclusion). And obviously far better gross margins because of the higher price.
Yes, I remember that. I'm waiting for Munro for an informed view, but based on the limited data thus far, the rear assembly alone should be a major cost saver, on the order of hundreds of $. The heat pump octovalve assembly should save a huge amount too. Watching the videos thus far makes it seem quite likely that the savings in labor costs and rework could well make Y cheaper. I changed my perspective after watching Munro videos up to today's.
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