Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Nice to see Cramer call out Credit Suisse on their "upgrade" today. Not a lot of headwind headed into 1Q reporting and battery day. Kinda strange to say that.

 

[juanmedina]

bought 50 shares with the calls I sold yesterday

 

[Unpilot]

Lift off

 

[Green Pete]

800 by EoD?

 

[pz1975]

This smells a lot like late Jan/early Feb.

 

[StealthP3D]

If they are already including inverters so they can add outlets to power AC tools/equipment then they would just need to make the inverter slightly larger to handle a house. So V2G would certainly make more sense for Cybertruck.

EVs already have powerful inverters to power the drive motor(s). The Cybertruck will have 120 V and 240V AC outlets in the truck bed to power tools and pumps but Tesla is keeping mum on the Amp rating of these outlets (so far). I would love to see a 20A 120V outlet and a 50A 240V outlet.

The drive inverters are already big enough to handle most homes, the biggest limitation is the storage capacity of the battery (considering it's wise to keep it in the 20%-80% range when used regularly in this application).

 

[jbcarioca]

A few thoughts on manufacturing and warranty costs:

Once we have more detailed Munro analysis on Model Y we should know the economic value of the;
1. Rear casting and structure. That can obviously be retroapplied to Model 3 and is designed for automation.
2. Electrical wiring channels/wrapping' Not the hoped-for reductions but the Model Y approach allows for almost total automation, plus increased reliability and stability.
3. Octobottle. Once teardown has been completed we'll discover that this reduces total labor costs and parts count by a huge amount, consequently resulting in increased efficiency and reliability.
4. Floor pan +. Most of the traditional interior assembly requires manual installation. Model 3 began improving automation in this area but Model Y carries it much further.
5. Battery and electronics, soon we will know more about these. We already have very solid logical reasons to expect that large savings in cost and weight probably are connected to the new pack designs. The Octobottle leads us to think there have been major improvements in BMS, specifically temperature management, which could well make improvements in power output, durability, charging and so on.

Ignoring all else these five elements probably account for >50% of total manufacturing costs. It's premature to estimate savings, but that has never stopped us before. I shall be quite surprised if the total manufacturing cost of Model Y is more than 90% of Model 3 cost. Most of those improvements can be, and maybe already are, applied to Model 3. Of equal importance is that each of these elements increases quality and reliability, thereby reducing warranty costs.

Despite the prematurity of quantification the direction is clear and obvious. These improvements and/or others analogous to them will be applied to future products and to Model S and X revisions.

Proof of Tesla competitive advantages in auto design are clear. We haven't heard a thing about battery technology or motor technology, both of which are huge factors.

In my view this establishes a very bullish case. Knowing more will almost certainly strengthen that case.

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla is just reminding us why we don't sell or trade our core shares.

 

[dl003]

Any guess as to when we're going to see the hammer?

 

[larmor]

Any guess as to when we're going to see the hammer?

When they release the cybertruck the other US auto makers will be nailed...

 

[Nocturnal]

Any guess as to when we're going to see the hammer?

When the stock rockets up? I figure it's when we are about out of this mess and GM/Ford etc. announce they are postponing their EV investments until they can pay off debt (or restructure).

 

[GOVA]

I don't think it was unreasonable to expect new wiring in the model Y. Whats it being saved for? the cybertruck? Tesla is a company that talks a lot about moving fast and constant improvement. I honestly did think they would be doing this by now. I *do* expect this change to show up in the middle of the model Y production though. Maybe profit margins are so good already and demand so high, that the downtime to shift to a new method of installing the wiring makes no economic sense right now.

In other words, they cant stop for anything right now, even if they know there is a potentially much cheaper/quicker way to do things the next time they get to re-tool.

People get used to good things quickly and just move on with bitching as usual. Now, let's not forget that Tesla Model Y was delivered about 1 year earlier than promised/expected.

IMO, things like drastic change and development of common standards, in this case cabling, require time for proper development. Tesla did not have time to do it and make the Y a year in advance.

It comes when it does, but let's not make too big of a deal about it because Munro said so. It'll come eventually, I hope but I'd rather have model Y produced and delivered now.

 

[dl003]

When the stock rockets up? I figure it's when we are about out of this mess and GM/Ford etc. announce they are postponing their EV investments until they can pay off debt (or restructure).

No, when MMs are going to begin their attempt to knock this rally down. Max Pain this week is 590 as of right now.

 

[Nocturnal]

No, when MMs are going to begin their attempt to knock this rally down. Max Pain this week is 590 as of right now.

Ah, probably on a down macro day when we get some new Rona news.

 

[StealthP3D]

To me, it seems pretty clear that Sandy Munro is enjoying his new celebrity status that comes with being involved with Tesla. Not saying it is impairing his ability to be fair in his criticism. But it feels like he’s taken the attitude of “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!”

He started out being a defender of the companies who buttered his toast. But then he realized they might not be around to butter his toast anymore.

 

[Artful Dodger]

8.07M shares of TSLA traded in the 1st half hour.

 

[Nocturnal]

How is everyone feeling about earnings? Not sure if I expect a dip or not.

8.07M shares of TSLA traded in the 1st half hour.

A good problem to have but now I have to decide whether to sell my profitable calls and rebuy on the next dip or holdor until 21/22 and make a fortune.

 

[ggr]

That covers the executed part, but aren't you buying from the call writer as opposed to the market? Either the writer had shares which they no longer do, or they are now short shares which they need to purchase. The only thing that could push down the stock price is you selling the shares.
Oh wait: @Artful Dodger, was that a list of trades with their historical basis?(As opposed to the current stock price)
If so, could those have been executed long ago and the shares held time now versus exercise and sell at the same time?
Sorry to drag this on, but it seems like something fundamental I'm misunderstanding.

You are always buying from the market. The point is that the market is where buyers and sellers meet up. In my example case, the contract expired while still in the money, so all the holders like me exercised at the same time, and all the writers had to somehow come up with shares to deliver. When I have exercised early, someone (I don't actually know who...) randomly (supposedly) assigns the contract among the open contracts, and delivers the shares to me. Even when the market is closed, this happens very quickly. The hardest part about the transaction is calling the broker, who will point out to you that you're losing the time value of the option, so you have to convince them that you know what you're doing. "When will the shares appear in my account?" I ask. "They're there now." I've done this twice, for different reasons.

 

[Etna]

Today we're up 100% over March 18th, less than a month ago.

 

[Cobos]

People get used to good things quickly and just move on with bitching as usual. Now, let's not forget that Tesla Model Y was delivered about 1 year earlier than promised/expected.

IMO, things like drastic change and development of common standards, in this case cabling, require time for proper development. Tesla did not have time to do it and make the Y a year in advance.

It comes when it does, but let's not make too big of a deal about it because Munro said so. It'll come eventually, I hope but I'd rather have model Y produced and delivered now.

I also had thought that the new wiring was out with the delivery of the Model Y this early and built on Model 3 instead of it's own level of improvement. But I have no issue that Munro had hoped it would be in the Y now.

I always thought the improved wiring was part of a complete redesign of all the smaller electrical loads. Wiring that can be installed by robots, MUCH shorter total length of wiring 1500m to 100m, and removing the 12V battery and powerline.

It makes sense to do all of these at the same time, since they directly affect each other, and since they'll probably move to a different voltage then 12V it's possible Tesla is insourcing more stuff to fit their first principle thinking. Maybe you need 30V or 5V I don't know but if they see lots of improvements with a radical change they might suddenly have to make all the tiny motors themselves, like window motors or seat motors etc. The end result is this takes a lot more time to get all done and is probably better tried on Roadster II, or Model X or some other smaller production. And then after 6 months or so they roll it out to the 3 and Y. That's my idea of what happened anyway.