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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Honestly, I don't know if Coronavirus induced economic woes will cause Tesla to become demand limited to any significant degree or not. No one does. But what's silly is assuming that Tesla will be impacted similarly to other automakers. And the reason for that is that all other automakers were already demand limited before CV even existed. Tesla was not. That is a very important distinction.
The truth of the matter is it's impossible to predict how deeply or for how long economic woes will impact sales (if at all) until we have more sales data going forward. Because we don't know how much unrealized demand there is (above and beyond production capacity). Nor do we know when production at Freemont will restart (the less production there is the less likely demand would be relevant).
Nor do we know how fast the underlying demand is growing (due to the fact that many people are just now beginning to learn that Tesla might be an option for them). In short, no one knows whether demand will be impacted enough to affect sales or how much it will affect sales if it does at all. And any guess would be quite tenuous. All we can do is provide our opinions based on gut feelings.
You have provided your guess that this is going to be a big deal but have provided no reason why you think Tesla was already operating on the margin of being demand limited.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Sudre
Active Member
It appear THEY (how ever you want to label it) are pushing max pain up to just above 700. It is probably not manipulation per say but simply the MMs buying more shares to cover higher strikes. We will see if there is an attempt to get things back to 710 tomorrow or if they just give up.
Just a word of warning... be careful if you use a margin account for this. I sold a bunch of Mar and Jun 2021 $400, $500, $600 puts back in February when the SP was over $700 and $800. I figured they were pretty much guaranteed to expire worthless. I still believe that obviously. The problem was when the SP dropped under $500 and then $400, I got margin calls every day for a week straight. I had to close some of those out for big losses.
The good news is I am now out of margin and I still have a few of those (sold) puts left and they are dropping every day. I have recovered most of my losses from the $900+ peak with TSLA shares and calls. It's been quite a roller coaster ride.
FYI the margin and losses were in my regular account. Most of my calls trading is in my Roth IRA, which doesn't allow margin and has no taxes on gains.
Edit: The margin calls took me by surprise because ETrade raised my margin requirements for TSLA without warning, because of the high % of my account in TSLA. That's another thing to be aware of.
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Wait, you can overcontribute with penalty? Any ceiling/limits?
I like your list. However, having been burned with my play account, I'd suggest moving "Don't use Margin" to position 1 and putting it in bold red caps with flames.
Minimize the Croupier's Take, DON'T USE MARGIN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
No, you pay 6% per year on the excess amount until you have withdrawn it or applied it toward future yearly contribution. So if I wanted, I could use *rollover contribution* to bypass the yearly limit for 2020 and put an extra $6000 in. I then pay 6% penalty and apply it toward 2021 contribution next year. So there's no limit but if you put a lot in you'll pay the penalty for quite some time.
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And you have to pay the 6% on the gains that come from the overcontribution as well. And when you withdraw the overcontribution, and related gains, you get hit with the 10% early withdrawal penalty on the related gains. (And those gains are calculated based on your overall portfolio performance, not tied to the specific investments that you put the overcontribution into.)
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I think the last 45 minutes of trading has been about Call options at the $750 strike price. We'll know more in 10 min with the hourly TSLA update from Opricot.
Just received Early Access stop at stop signs/stop lights update this morning and tested it out. Because of confidentially agreement I cannot discuss.
But I will now confidently give investment advice: buy more TSLA stock if you can
Interesting. From what I've seen driving the system is very good at seeing red lights and stop signs. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that it is able to stop correctly. In theory of course since you can't share details.
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
FYI, learn to trade options spread and you wont get margined.
To retcify your margin call, just buy a put 100 points below your short puts.
Then sell them when the market settles.
Most here are not well versed in the art of spread trading
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Here's my take on the Corona Virus and it's impact on TSLA...
People are pulling their money out of just about everything. They are looking for someplace to put that money once things begin to get back to business economically. Where in the transportation sector can they go? Airlines? Legacy Auto? Uhh...no. Those options have shown their glaring weaknesses throughout this crisis. Has ANY company positioned themselves to weather this storm of uncertainty?
Why yes, yes they have...and it ain't GM or Ford. Just sayin'
Maybe that explains why TSLA is again on the rise while others are losing 5-10% daily.
Dan
People are pulling their money out of just about everything. They are looking for someplace to put that money once things begin to get back to business economically. Where in the transportation sector can they go? Airlines? Legacy Auto? Uhh...no. Those options have shown their glaring weaknesses throughout this crisis. Has ANY company positioned themselves to weather this storm of uncertainty?
Why yes, yes they have...and it ain't GM or Ford. Just sayin'
Maybe that explains why TSLA is again on the rise while others are losing 5-10% daily.
Dan
Thanks. Where on the website do you go to see that? Any tips on interpreting the numbers?
How Reliable Is the 2019 Tesla Model 3?
Update on Car and Driver's long term Model 3. Entertaining and informative.
"We've also done some experiments of our own. We discovered that the Model 3's plastic wheel covers improve range by up to 10 miles. And although the near-instant warm air blowing from the Tesla's HVAC system is welcome on a cold morning, we found that cranking up the climate control alone can reduce range by 60 miles. We also recently compared the charging speeds on one of Tesla's new 250-kW V3 Superchargers versus the older 150-kW units."
Update on Car and Driver's long term Model 3. Entertaining and informative.
"We've also done some experiments of our own. We discovered that the Model 3's plastic wheel covers improve range by up to 10 miles. And although the near-instant warm air blowing from the Tesla's HVAC system is welcome on a cold morning, we found that cranking up the climate control alone can reduce range by 60 miles. We also recently compared the charging speeds on one of Tesla's new 250-kW V3 Superchargers versus the older 150-kW units."
Krugerrand
Meow
It HAS been discussed at length. No, really. And multiple times. You beating the chart horse repeatedly isn’t going change the mind of anyone who’s done the common sense thought process.
Nobody much is looking to buy a new car at this moment in time unless they need a car. That’s just common sense that there are bigger issues on a lot of people’s minds.
(I would buy my CYBRTRCK right this second, though, if Tesla emailed me it was ready. Yes, I would. That’s a tri-motor with FSD and the ATV.)
That does not mean that when the economy gets rolling again, which it will or I’ll see you at Hilltop, that Tesla will have a demand problem. No, they will not. If I have to explain it to you, you don’t deserve to own TSLA shares.
Disclaimer: All in TSLA and hodling since 2012.
P.S. I have always had this affinity to attract money. Even during hard times throughout life, money always showed up when I needed it. I recently nailed ROKU - yep, posted here I’d gotten in, though missed the bottom by 10%ish.
If you want money, buy TSLA, hold it, and stop doing interest chart searches. I’m never wrong about money (and most everything/one else; it’s my jam).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, well I guess we WON'T know more (in 10 min)
Opricot reports ZERO CHANGE in Call volume at the $750 Strike as of 12:27:34 (guess u git wot u pay 4)
EDIT: And now at 12:45 EDT, Opricot reports Call Volume at the $750 Strike to be 10.15 K which is an increase of 3,850 in call volume (385,000 shares under contract) all WITHOUT UPDATING the Timestamp on their page. Amateur hour or Happy hour at Opricot? You decide.
Meanwhile, the real action has been at the $800 SP where it looks like 10K contracts (1,000,000 shares under contract) traded in the past hour: (vol was about 4.8K contracts at 10:27 and now 14.81K contracts at 12:45
paging @FrankSG I like your description of how delta hedging by MMs of large swings in Options contracts affects the no. of shares bought/sold by those same MMs. (while claiming no understand of the process
)
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myt-e-s-l-a
Member
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