Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Front page on CNN:

Coronavirus live updates: Cases top 2 million globally - CNN

“Elon Musk’s promised ventilators never delivered to CA hospitals.”

Elon fighting back on twitter:
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[dl003]

And yet most here will think somehow Tesla will come out unscathed, even though this is happening :

View attachment 532944

Let me guess... haven't bought back your shares?

 

[JRP3]

And yet most here will think somehow Tesla will come out unscathed, even though this is happening :

What happens if you add Model 3 and Y together? Oddly I get a completely different result than you did:

 

[Artful Dodger]

searchable text here:

Volkswagen AG announces preliminary Q1 2020 results and withdraws 2020 full-year outlook due to business impacts from covid-19 pandemic

Volkswagen AG announces preliminary Q1 2020 results and withdraws 2020 full-year outlook due to business impacts from covid-19 pandemic

Ad hoc Release

16-April-2020

The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has also had a significant impact on Volkswagen Group’s business.

As a result, the automobile retail network has largely came to a standstill. The resulting decline in customer demand and supplier bottlenecks led to production stops within the Volkswagen Group.​

 

[ZeApelido]

Let me guess... haven't bought back your shares?

Not yet waiting to see if it drops toward max pain.

For some reason you think I have the ability to influence TSLA share price??

 

[dl003]

Not yet waiting to see if it drops toward max pain.

For some reason you think I have the ability to influence TSLA share price??

Even some of the most bullish here think that Tesla demand will take a hit. But, that's not all that matters. What about China? Battery Day? What about the fact that this is one of the greatest companies on Earth? The decision to hold or sell is much much more complex than the answer to the question "Will the recession impact Tesla demand?"
I think demand could take a hit, sure. But I'm not willing to stay out and bet against Elon Musk. If I don't sell either way, it doesn't matter what I think about demands. If I was holding SPY, I would be scared shitless, but not TSLA. I sold before to get out of margin and I felt much worse than when I saw stock price plummeted.

 

[ZeApelido]

What happens if you add Model 3 and Y together? Oddly I get a completely different result than you did:

View attachment 532945

There are search terms and topic terms that are processed slightly differently. You can also try to aggregate all Tesla car searches by entering "Tesla model".

In the end what you will see is a 50% drop in search frequency for Tesla products, just like with most car makers.

Those makers are noting upcoming demand drops. I would assume Tesla on the same path, but there are 2 positives:

China demand seems so big that GF3 production and selling may be unfazed.

Maybe Model Y temporary demand can stay high enough to counter dropping Model 3 demand in U. S

 

[jbcarioca]

Since we don't want to sidetrack ourselves IN THIS THREAD into discussions of technical issues and/or specific Model Y issues, despite their relevance and interest, perhaps we might extract the specific clear value from an investment perspective.

I think that is simply that Tesla uses the best technology they can imagine to tackle problems while simultaneously reducing costs, increasing efficiency and improving relaibility.

The heat pump (actually the Octobottle and total package) is an excellent example of how Tesla does that. The Model Y rear aluminum castings are another excelelnt example.

The lesson for investors is that Tesla consistently uses innovations that nearly all traditional manufacturers do not. Soon we should have enough data to allow us to estimate the continuing economic value of such innovations. Remember that we have not yet seen the battery pack and electronic evaluations from Munro.

I think chances are very good that we could forecast typical Tesla automotive GM's of ~25% including Semi, Cybertruck and the forthcoming China-designed vehicles. Energy products will have lower GM's but will also have lower production capex and several other scale advantages.

Battery day and other forthcoming announcements will give more confidence.

Finally, GF-4 road construction, using the rail connections on-site to deliver materials NOW, South Korea Model 3 EV market share in March, GF-3 production, China sales and so on. All these things point to quite unexpected positive news. I hope it is not irrational exuberance to suggest we might well have positive TSLA Q1 financial results.

 

[Bunky]

I see us trading roughly sideways today and tomorrow barring any significant news. Then a resumption of upward pressure on Monday./Tuesday. Earnings is a wildcard but I think there will be a bias on positive SP movement. Either way, earnings will reduce uncertainty and this recent price action is insanely bullish. The bears have been calling for bankruptcy for so long. The fact that a pandemic and factory shutdown have been met with a great deal of relative strength in the SP destroys any shred of bear thesis that remained. It is clear that betting on efficiency and innovation is prudent in this changing world.

All speculation and MHO, probably incorrect, not advice etc.

 

[ZeApelido]

Even some of the most bullish here think that Tesla demand will take a hit. But, that's not all that matters. What about China? Battery Day? What about the fact that this is one of the greatest companies on Earth? The decision to hold or sell is much much more complex than the answer to the question "Will the recession impact Tesla demand?"
I think demand could take a hit, sure. But I'm not willing to stay out and bet against Elon Musk. If I don't sell either way, it doesn't matter what I think about demands. If I was holding SPY, I would be scared shitless, but not TSLA. I sold before to get out of margin and I felt much worse than when I saw stock price plummeted.

I actually agree with you which is why I will be buying back in my IRA money even if I think there's a chance it could drop a good amount in the next 4 months. It's not worth the mental stress when you really think and want the company to do well. But I can't help bring it up because it's a quite relevant topic and I wish people could handle talking about it without hating.

 

[jerry33]

How will this impact cars such as the Bolt that are mostly manufactured in South Korea and ASSEMBLED in America, vs. Tesla that is majority MANUFACTURED in America? Would there be a sliding scale of percentages in place. Curious what others take on this is.

No doubt Assembled in America will include GM and Ford (Mexico and Canada are in America after all, just not the U.S.). Any government incentive will be focused on GM and Ford. Tesla will only get included by coincidence.

 

[FrankSG]

Max pain up to 675 today possibly rising to 690-700 tomorrow. I’d expect more push downs during the day today and tomorrow counter to market trends.

If this occurs I may go gigantic today/tomorrow: 100k+ on 5/15 900s.

Risky & Ballsy, but not the worst idea I've ever heard.

You want to get in this week rather than next week? Don't want to risk a further run up leading up to earnings?

EDIT: ... until I took a look at the premiums. $35? Pffft... what does a man have to do to get some leverage these days?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm old and my eyes hurt now...thanks

OT:

Spoiler: Storytime

This reminds me of my dear departed Uncle, who was also a pilot.

Someday, I'd like to pass away peacefully in my sleep like Uncle Cliff, rather than screaming in terror like his passengers...

 

[dl003]

I actually agree with you which is why I will be buying back in my IRA money even if I think there's a chance it could drop a good amount in the next 4 months. It's not worth the mental stress when you really think and want the company to do well. But I can't help bring it up because it's a quite relevant topic and I wish people could handle talking about it without hating.

I think part of it is because there is so much we don't know about demands. So, it's speculation vs speculation and in the absence of facts, emotion prevails. This forum's emotion is inevitably pro Tesla.

 

[jbcarioca]

No doubt Assembled in America will include GM and Ford (Mexico and Canada are in America after all, just not the U.S.). Any government incentive will be focused on GM and Ford. Tesla will only get included by coincidence.

Actually the relevant rules are based on percentage content, not final assembly. Some arcane exceptions are pointed mostly towards protecting US pickup dominance. Some are directed to protect US heavy industry. There is really no easy way to generalize the net effect of final assembly point.

For example:
https://www.wita.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/190403_Scholl_RulesofOrigin_WEB_v3.pdf

 

[StealthP3D]

Let me guess... haven't bought back your shares?

I'm guessing there are hundreds of people here who thought they were smarter than the market and have left tens of thousands of dollars each (and more) on the table during this climb from $450 to $725.

For every 100 shares sold at the arbitrary price of $510 with the intention to re-purchase at a lower price that's over $21,000.00 not in their account at the moment.

Of course, most of them are not silly enough to think they can make the price come back down simply by posting Google Trend results that they believe reflects poorly on the stock.

 

[Green Pete]

inverted MMD today eh?

 

[dl003]

I'm guessing there are hundreds of people here who thought they were smarter than the market and have left tens of thousands of dollars each (and more) on the table during this climb from $450 to $725.

For every 100 shares sold at the arbitrary price of $510 with the intention to re-purchase at a lower price that's over $21,000.00 not in their account at the moment.

Of course, most of them are not silly enough to think they can make the price come back down simply by posting Google Trend results that they believe reflects poorly on the stock.

Allow me to share my painful experience. I was one of those selling out (just a small portion) at $475 and hoping to get back at 455. In fact, I posted about selling my put option for extra money. The reason was, and this is stupid, I had $44k cash in my roth IRA and I can't contribute anymore this year. And I wanted 100 shares, had to have it. So I gambled, and lost, brought back in at 570 once I've determined the MMs would not be able to get it any lower. I should have just over contributed, pay 6% penalty to the IRS next year and get my 100 shares right then and there - something I wish I had known.

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon fighting back on twitter:
Elon Musk on Twitter

So were they actually delivered? I saw the article and it didn't make sense at all.

I'm guessing there are hundreds of people here who thought they were smarter than the market and have left tens of thousands of dollars each (and more) on the table during this climb from $450 to $725.

For every 100 shares sold at the arbitrary price of $510 with the intention to re-purchase at a lower price that's over $21,000.00 not in their account at the moment.

Of course, most of them are not silly enough to think they can make the price come back down simply by posting Google Trend results that they believe reflects poorly on the stock.

Still seeing so many people saying "I'll buy my shares back when it dips back to 300, below 200 etc." Goofballs.

 

[LJS22]

inverted MMD today eh?

Give TSLA some momentum and it will run