Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

I hope to see all the folks posting about options trading, over in the Options Trading thread (or for those posting specific trade, in the trading thread).

Including me

 

[juanmedina]

Max pain up to 675 today possibly rising to 690-700 tomorrow. I’d expect more push downs during the day today and tomorrow counter to market trends.

If this occurs I may go gigantic today/tomorrow: 100k+ on 5/15 900s.

I’m targeting that day due to “double witching“: expiry day and 3rd Friday of month.

This (I am not advising) to me, results in tighter price bands and higher volumes as these options have been available for a year versus other Fridays which, for Tesla, are not offered until a shorter timespan. This lets me escape loss or profit with ease.

Lastly, it isn’t triple witching (third Friday of month during March, June, September, December), when quarterly ends also come into play and in my (not advice) belief leads to higher manipulation.

In in this specific case it will cover earnings should I elect to hold options during that time, which I’m not sure on yet and previously felt no due to corona questions.

Also, my investing strategy is to stay out of the money, but just on the fringe, and move options to equity after profit occurs. Using this strategy I’ve gone from 2 shares of Tesla (when it was $250/share) to 200 (anytime I want), with a minimum balance of 100. Literally $3,000 to teslanair. I don’t think we will soar above 900 on May 15th (barring exceptional earnings), but I personally believe we will close the gap to that number fast in the following start of the week. I also frequently take profit and rarely all in.

I’m waiting for red to open my position today and I will post it in fact so nobody thinks I am manipulating or otherwise deceiving.

Photo is YTD Robinhood alone starting balance $1,200 on December 26th, 2019.

I am tempted . How much % profit do you usually shoot for before selling the calls?.

 

[BenPrice]

I hope to see all the folks posting about options trading, over in the Options Trading thread (or for those posting specific trade, in the trading thread - maybe my new home is trading thread! Sorry to all who didn’t like this type of post on this thread).

Including me

Sorry. I felt that momentary information was helpful and I’ve benefited from it prior. I will cease to post that momentary info here from now on.

Thanks

Quick reply to @juanmedina

If I wake up to massive pre-market I usually observe sentiment, opening 30 minutes, max pain, day of the week, and decide momentarily.

Mostly I come here and scan for recent people’s decisions and news. (I’m not trying to prove a point but I do really enjoy this specific thread’s momentary advice, even when it’s wrong, because it has worked beyond sample size).

I’ll give up 3x to bank 2x if I feel I’m risking my profit.

 

[Tim S]

I have reason to believe that you shouldn't even discuss the fact that there is an early access program, or that you're in it. But hey, what would I know?

Is that the first rule of Early Access Program?

 

[woodisgood]

Sorry. I felt that momentary information was helpful and I’ve benefited from it prior. I will cease to post that momentary info here from now on.

Thanks

Quick reply to @juanmedina

If I wake up to massive pre-market I usually observe sentiment, opening 30 minutes, max pain, day of the week, and decide momentarily.

Mostly I come here and scan for recent people’s decisions and news. (I’m not trying to prove a point but I do really enjoy this specific thread’s momentary advice, even when it’s wrong, because it has worked beyond sample size).

I’ll give up 3x to bank 2x if I feel I’m risking my profit.

Personally I find the info helpful, if only to provide a gut check on my own thinking. I can understand why folks would prefer options-related material in a separate thread, but to me there’s a distinction between discussion about advanced option strategies, including writing your own, vs. simply timing the trading of calls/LEAPs or choosing strikes/dates.

 

[PeterJA]

BREAKING: Porsche admits defeat by claiming they aren't trying.

Porsche has no interest in competing with Tesla on sales or range

I don't quite follow the logic of Michael Steiner, head of Porsche R&D:

"Although people like to play us off against each other, we do not consider Tesla to be a direct rival. With the Model 3, it's clear that they are more aggressively targeting the volume segment."

Yes Mike, but with Model S/X, they are aggressively targeting your segment, and eating your lunch. Plaid S/X and Roadster 2 will eat your other meals.

[Porsche's] cars are, on average, more expensive than Tesla's so transaction prices often cross the six-digit threshold....
Steiner highlighted another key difference between the two companies. Tesla is out to win the range race, while Porsche believes in "smaller, lighter, and therefore less expensive batteries that can be recharged more quickly." He added his team has no intention of turning Porsche into the leader in electric range.

I see. Cheaper batteries in your pricier cars. Customers will love that.

Don't tell Jim ("Porsche is coming") Chanos.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Ha thats staggering. they should stick that on billboards outside porsche showrooms

 

[Krugerrand]

Simple article from zero hedge -- nothing but charts with 1 liner commentary:
Nasdaq 100 Surges Back Into Green For 2020, Small Caps Down 30%

The theme being X (an index) is soaring while it's EPS expectations are crashing.


The one company I remain long in is TSLA. However the disconnect between indices (groups of companies) and their joint EPS expectations is becoming dramatic. They way I think and describe it - the stock market and the real economy are growing increasingly disconnected.

One of the lessons I carried away from '08 is that when the bear gets going, everything does down. Even really good companies. The best explanation I encountered then is that when the margin calls on heavily levered investors arrive, eventually they have no choice but to sell everything, including the good stuff. Maybe even especially including the good stuff, as they can actually get some money for that stuff.

Back in '08, I found a company that looked excellent to me, but was selling for $40 when it was easily a $80 stock (it's easier to precisely value companies focused on paying dividends). So I bought what would have been a good 5.4% dividend for half price (making the dividend 10.8%). It worked exactly the way I thought it would work.


I see that disconnect between market and economy, and I see a significant downturn coming soon. I remain long and strong in my TSLA holdings, but it's the only stock market holding I still have.


The point all being - calling people that see significant downside to TSLA share prices from today "goofballs" is extremely misguided. It is, at minimum, a reasonable hypothesis based on the available data, which "goofball" would seem to negate.

TSLA can be pulled down a long ways in the downdraft of companies going bankrupt and the broader market resetting to better match the real economy. Or of course TSLA can keep going up despite the broader economy. There is a reasonable hypothesis for that as well (which is why I've still got my long shares, some of which I've had for 8 years).

So summed up; you have no idea. If TSLA stays up while everything else crashes, then technically *they* were ‘goofballs’, eh?

I actually prefer a person who has conviction and stands by it even if they end up being wrong in the end. From my perspective, wishy-washy, maybe this, maybe that is unhelpful. I can do that. Tell me what you believe and why, and I’ll take that information, process it, and see if it makes sense to me. I’ll even take, ‘I have no idea.’ In which case just say that without all the maybe this, maybe that stuff.

 

[Singuy]

BREAKING: Porsche admits defeat by claiming they aren't trying.

Porsche has no interest in competing with Tesla on sales or range

I don't quite follow the logic of Michael Steiner, head of Porsche R&D:


Yes Mike, but with Model S/X, they are aggressively targeting your segment, and eating your lunch. Plaid S/X and Roadster 2 will eat your other meals.


I see. Cheaper batteries in your pricier cars. Customers will love that.

Don't tell Jim ("Porsche is coming") Chanos.

LoL, their cars are not cheaper or lighter. He should have just talked about "drives like a Porsche and the quality expected from Porsche". I mean I give them that, the materials they use inside the cabin is more higher end because they don't have PETA harassing them yearly at investor meetings...

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla had a $150B market cap when this crisis started, based entirely on future performance. Tesla's future remains unchanged. The only thing that has changed is that their competition is being destroyed, since unlike Tesla their value was based almost entirely on the near term. Therefore TSLA should be trading significantly above its all time high even now, and I think it soon will as the market starts to figure this out.

 

[Papafox]

This was also refreshing to see.
"And, Vice President Biden has committed that Biden for President will not accept contributions from oil, gas and coal corporations or executives."

Biden said at a fundraiser hosted by Jim Chanos /s. Both Bill Clinton and Joe Biden have partnered with Chanos in the past for fundraising. Great to see the avoidance of oil money, but the dark side of Wall Street still infects both parties. I'd love to see progress there, too.

 

[Causalien]

Elon Musk sets the record straight over allegations that Tesla donated no ventilators to CA hospitals

No good deed goes unpunished.

 

[woodisgood]

No good deed goes unpunished.

Seriously. It remains unclear whether the Sac Bee report was simply motivated by “billionaire-disgust” or something more nefarious and/or Tesla-related.

 

[adiggs]

So summed up; you have no idea. If TSLA stays up while everything else crashes, then technically *they* were ‘goofballs’, eh?

I actually prefer a person who has conviction and stands by it even if they end up being wrong in the end. From my perspective, wishy-washy, maybe this, maybe that is unhelpful. I can do that. Tell me what you believe and why, and I’ll take that information, process it, and see if it makes sense to me. I’ll even take, ‘I have no idea.’ In which case just say that without all the maybe this, maybe that stuff.

Strong convictions, weakly held. Meaning that if I find evidence to the contrary, I'm willing (and eager) to change those convictions.

I'm about 1/2 in cash and 1/2 in TSLA. The TSLA is unchanged, the other half used to be in typical index funds. That half is sitting out until I see the market be more connected to the economy than it is now.

And no, like everybody else, I have no idea. Only the convictions I hold, and the actions I've taken on them.

 

[Creekstalker]

LA Times Business "Reporter" Russ Mitchell on Twitter:

@elonmusk Employees at two hospitals told me your delivery of Bipaps was contingent on their posing for thank you shots to be posted on social media. One declined, one accepted. Was there ever such quid pro quo? I’d ask Tesla’s press office but it no longer exists.

My response: And then what happened, Russ? Hospitals that needed devices to help people breath got them for the price of saying "thank you" publicly?

Elon literally cannot win with the media. His persistence in trying to help despite constant ridicule and belittlement might be his best quality. Despite the awfulness of some people, Elon keeps trying to help them.

I guess this is all $TSLAQ has to crow about since we're up double digits again and shorts have lost billions in the last month.

 

[PeterJA]

I think part of it is because there is so much we don't know about demands. So, it's speculation vs speculation and in the absence of facts, emotion prevails. This forum's emotion is inevitably pro Tesla.

We know everything we need to know about demands:

1) Tesla cars are superior and lower cost in their current segments. In a few years, they will expand to all segments due to continued innovations in batteries and production tech.

2) Tesla storage batteries are superior and lower cost than gas peaker plants. The demand for these products will be bigger than the auto business, according to Elon.

3) Tesla products sell themselves in a virtuous cycle: The more Tesla cars on the street and storage batteries on the grid, the more demand is generated.

4) The demand for cheap robotaxi service will be astronomical, according to every market analysis.

Of course, you likely meant short-term demands. But longterm investors don't need to know that.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

LA Times Business "Reporter" Russ Mitchell on Twitter:

@elonmusk Employees at two hospitals told me your delivery of Bipaps was contingent on their posing for thank you shots to be posted on social media. One declined, one accepted. Was there ever such quid pro quo? I’d ask Tesla’s press office but it no longer exists.

My response: And then what happened, Russ? Hospitals that needed devices to help people breath got them for the price of saying "thank you" publicly?

Elon literally cannot win with the media. His persistence in trying to help despite constant ridicule and belittlement might be his best quality. Despite the awfulness of some people, Elon keeps trying to help them.

I guess this is all $TSLAQ has to crow about since we're up double digits again and shorts have lost billions in the last month.

Why do you hate me? I have not helped you.
Chinese proverb.

 

[hobbes]

Just received Early Access stop at stop signs/stop lights update this morning and tested it out. Because of confidentially agreement I cannot discuss.

But I will now confidently give investment advice: buy more TSLA stock if you can

Mik≡ Lary on Twitter

 

[woodisgood]

LA Times Business "Reporter" Russ Mitchell on Twitter:

@elonmusk Employees at two hospitals told me your delivery of Bipaps was contingent on their posing for thank you shots to be posted on social media. One declined, one accepted. Was there ever such quid pro quo? I’d ask Tesla’s press office but it no longer exists.

My response: And then what happened, Russ? Hospitals that needed devices to help people breath got them for the price of saying "thank you" publicly?

Elon literally cannot win with the media. His persistence in trying to help despite constant ridicule and belittlement might be his best quality. Despite the awfulness of some people, Elon keeps trying to help them.

I guess this is all $TSLAQ has to crow about since we're up double digits again and shorts have lost billions in the last month.

That’s it. Russ doesn’t get to come to Mars.

 

[LJS22]

LA Times Business "Reporter" Russ Mitchell on Twitter:

@elonmusk Employees at two hospitals told me your delivery of Bipaps was contingent on their posing for thank you shots to be posted on social media. One declined, one accepted. Was there ever such quid pro quo? I’d ask Tesla’s press office but it no longer exists.

My response: And then what happened, Russ? Hospitals that needed devices to help people breath got them for the price of saying "thank you" publicly?

Elon literally cannot win with the media. His persistence in trying to help despite constant ridicule and belittlement might be his best quality. Despite the awfulness of some people, Elon keeps trying to help them.

I guess this is all $TSLAQ has to crow about since we're up double digits again and shorts have lost billions in the last month.

The fact that a LA Times auto reporter went to a hospital to ask employees about ventilators during a pandemic for the sole purpose of believing that Musk’s donation was not in good faith makes Russ a despicable person.

There’s no reason to do this outside of trying to create a bad story out of a good one. Then for a CNN employee to attack Musk on twitter for not doing their job for them (investigating a claim) is unreal.

I’m glad he’s defending himself on this one. There wasn’t anything negative about what Musk did, he’s done his homework, he checked with the hospitals and told them what he could get them. Didn’t even ask for a dime.

Anytime one thinks Tesla fans are crazy just look at the depths people go to make the company seem incompetent and fraudulent. Luckily the current stock price indicates people see the nonsense others create.