Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

You’re not wrong. I lost a poker tournament once while holding three kings, while the other guy was holding three queens.

Poker bad beat story: I was deep in a tourney in late position. I 3 bet 3 limpers preflop. Villain calls, heads up to the flop. Flop gives me a set, villain checks, I bet, she calls.Turn pairs the board giving me a boat. Villain bets, I raise all in, she calls. River gives her quads. So, she didn't just hit a one outer on river but it immediately followed hitting a two outer on the turn. Runner runner. 1/1200 chance. And she and I were dating!

Lots of poker players here, eh?

OT but I could not help myself when I saw the poker analogy and terms. Those were some fun days on the 2p2 forums. Were any of you folks on those forums?

I don't think I posted much, but I've played millions of hands of online poker, so I definitely visited every now and then.

I still have a 0.1% crossbook with someone from 2p2 on the durrrr challenge (me taking jungleman's side of course), but I don't think that's ever going to get finished

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla's 10th and newest member of its Board of Directors is an outspoken advocate for climate change action:

"Hiro Mizuno: Addressing climate change as a critical ESG factor in investment" (9:00)

From the blog post at Tesla.com (linked above):

"Hiro’s entire career has been in finance and investment, spanning Tokyo, New York, London, Hong Kong and Silicon Valley. Most recently, Hiro served as Executive Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, which is the largest pension fund in the world with approximately $1.5 trillion in assets under management. During his time there, Hiro emphasized the importance of environmental considerations in portfolio management and became a global thought leader in sustainable and responsible investment. He also challenged many established market practices, including short-selling, to promote long-term value creation by corporations."​

Welcome aboard, Hiro. Looking forward to your wise counsel as we grow in influence as a global brand, market leader, and shining green success story.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

Since you asked...I am one of the early adopters of the Model S (VIN 4xxx) and am a victim of batterygate. I'm not going to rehash everything in the batterygate threads but one of the frustrating aspects of this experience is that Tesla, since the beginning of this issue, has obfuscated and given batterygate victims the run-around. Every time you raise the issue with a service tech, the tech gives the same pre-formulated non-responsive answer: "there is nothing wrong with the battery, it's working as it should." If you ask how much battery loss is acceptable versus non-acceptable, they respond, "there is nothing wrong with the battery, it's working as it should." If you ask to see their battery diagnostic, they refuse to do so and respond, "there is nothing wrong with the battery, it's working as it should." It's like talking to a broken Siri. And if you show them an OBD scan that shows that your battery voltage has dropped, they say, "we don't accept diagnostic tests by anyone else." What's sad is that many of the people I see complaining in these threads are people whose usernames I recognize from 2012-13 who were the biggest fans and defenders of Tesla. If Tesla bought new batteries for all batterygate victims, it would maybe drop the share price by maybe a dollar, yet Tesla has decided to play hardball with us. As an investor, there is a fear in the back of my mind that these battery issues could be more systemic; that if all affected batteries have to be replaced that it would cost a substantial amount. This is a question that all investors should be raising and want to have answered.

As an aside, I bought my first TSLA shares in 2012 for $26 and now have a substantial number of shares. Even so, I hope that Tesla either does right by all batterygate victims or loses the lawsuit.

I took delivery of my S in December 2012 (reserved in 2010!) and am now on my second S. Pretty much in the same boat as you with my 2014 S.

The hardest pill to swallow was seeing Tesla take our range away and never address the issue or even admit to the problem. I have since accepted the lower range and am less bitter about it. My next car will almost certainly be another Tesla...and I understood that early cars were pushing the boundary and would likely experience issues. But it sure felt like a slap to the face, especially knowing that the very early adopters of the S squeaked Tesla past a point in 2012 where they avoided bankruptcy by just a few hairs.

 

[mblakele]

Toyota to resume N.American production on May 4 | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Toyota Motor says it will resume production in North America next month, which has been suspended since March due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Toyota said on Thursday that it plans to gradually resume manufacturing operations at all plants in the United States, Canada and Mexico starting on May 4.

The Japanese carmaker halted production in the region on March 23 to secure the safety of workers and to deal with falling demand and difficulties in parts procurement.

The company said 5,000 workers currently furloughed will gradually return to work.

Honda Motor also aims to resume its US production starting on May 11.​

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Since you asked...I am one of the early adopters of the Model S (VIN 4xxx) and am a victim of batterygate. I'm not going to rehash everything in the batterygate threads but one of the frustrating aspects of this experience is that Tesla, since the beginning of this issue, has obfuscated and given batterygate victims the run-around. Every time you raise the issue with a service tech, the tech gives the same pre-formulated non-responsive answer: "there is nothing wrong with the battery, it's working as it should." If you ask how much battery loss is acceptable versus non-acceptable, they respond, "there is nothing wrong with the battery, it's working as it should." If you ask to see their battery diagnostic, they refuse to do so and respond, "there is nothing wrong with the battery, it's working as it should." It's like talking to a broken Siri. And if you show them an OBD scan that shows that your battery voltage has dropped, they say, "we don't accept diagnostic tests by anyone else." What's sad is that many of the people I see complaining in these threads are people whose usernames I recognize from 2012-13 who were the biggest fans and defenders of Tesla. If Tesla bought new batteries for all batterygate victims, it would maybe drop the share price by maybe a dollar, yet Tesla has decided to play hardball with us. As an investor, there is a fear in the back of my mind that these battery issues could be more systemic; that if all affected batteries have to be replaced that it would cost a substantial amount. This is a question that all investors should be raising and want to have answered.

As an aside, I bought my first TSLA shares in 2012 for $26 and now have a substantial number of shares. Even so, I hope that Tesla either does right by all batterygate victims or loses the lawsuit.

Please, your car is now about eight very long years old.

Guess what, an eight year old car will tend to have issues. It's an EV so it has different issues, and Tesla could have handled this much better, BUT this is the wrong thread regardless.

Let us stay ON TOPIC please.

Thx.

 

[dc_h]

Will governments accept that? It certainly doesn't seem so.

Even though air transportation is used by a small % of the population, we keep bailing out the airlines any cost, financial or environmental.

It's as if politicians have to find a way for their donors to frequently fly to remote places, like the Cayman Islands, Jersey or Malta. Should we tell them their top donors have their own private jets?

Air transportation is not a niche market and it also is a major part of the supply chain.
Long term electric planes will start taking share from jets. VTOL will allow more small airports for regional travel which may feed international airports and maybe Starship transportation terminals. Electric drone passenger flight will become a niche by 2025 and likely 40-50% of flights by 2030.

 

[UCF3]

Who was the chairman of the board? Was it Elon and the SEC made him give it up?

 

[FrankSG]

Who was the chairman of the board? Was it Elon and the SEC make him give it up?

It was Elon, but now it is Robyn Denholm.

 

[bigsmooth125]

Bro, this is the right thread. Is the sun hot? Is water wet? Anything else illuminating you can share besides the fact that an 8 year old car might have issues? The OP asked, so I gave him an answer that was not only responsive to his question but relates to TSLA investing. YOU are the one taking this off topic. Batterygate is not merely an "issue." It involves Tesla actively taking away range from people via software updates. It's the opposite of allowing the battery or car age naturally. To keep this on topic, this issue also relates to the quality of Tesla's customer service which was criticized heavily the last several years and which affects Tesla's reputation which affects its stock price. I love it when people downplay this issue by saying "Tesla could have handled it better." No, Tesla handled completely wrongly and, in the opinion of many, illegally. The courts will decide this and the information that comes out during litigation could affect the stock price. I'll repeat: all investors should be interested in this issue and hope that Tesla does what's right.

Please, your car is now about eight very long years old.

Guess what, an eight year old car will tend to have issues. It's an EV so it has different issues, and Tesla could have handled this much better, BUT this is the wrong thread regardless.

Let us stay ON TOPIC please.

Thx.

 

[tinm]

STOP-signs are hard, Karpathy said, and I see that they are still working on it.....
This doesn't give me very much confidence, I mean STOP - signs are pretty elementary thing for driving.

Interesting: stop signs are hard for humans too (especially cyclists but drivers as well).

 

[Prunesquallor]

Will governments accept that? It certainly doesn't seem so.

Even though air transportation is used by a small % of the population, we keep bailing out the airlines any cost, financial or environmental.

For some reason you have a skewed sense of how many people use air transport. 2015 Gallup poll showed 45% in US had flown within the past year.

Airlines

 

[Dare]

U.S. Natural Gas to Be World’s Priciest Amid Virus Upheaval


(Bloomberg) -- For the first time in more than a decade, U.S. natural gas is set to be the world’s most expensive as Covid-19 lockdowns wallop demand in other regions.

Gas futures in the U.S. have rallied about 10% this month as traders bet that a historic crash in oil prices will drive American shale companies to halt more drilling and curb output of gas, which is extracted as a byproduct. In Europe and Asia, meanwhile, prices are sliding to fresh lows due to a supply glut and languishing consumption amid the pandemic.

 

[mblakele]

U.S. Natural Gas to Be World’s Priciest Amid Virus Upheaval


(Bloomberg) -- For the first time in more than a decade, U.S. natural gas is set to be the world’s most expensive as Covid-19 lockdowns wallop demand in other regions.

Gas futures in the U.S. have rallied about 10% this month as traders bet that a historic crash in oil prices will drive American shale companies to halt more drilling and curb output of gas, which is extracted as a byproduct. In Europe and Asia, meanwhile, prices are sliding to fresh lows due to a supply glut and languishing consumption amid the pandemic.

Sorry if I'm dense, but what does that imply for TSLA?

 

[dc_h]

Sorry if I'm dense, but what does that imply for TSLA?

Solar and utility scale batteries become more valuable.

 

[Intl Professor]

I thought Plato had the cave.

Plato was a student of Socrates. Like any 2500 year old tale there are few reliable clues to what is genuine. I'm old enough to have been present at the time but memory fails now. I do remember reading A.E. Taylor's, Socrates for my quals. in political theory in the early sixties of the last century. Taylor does a tedious tour through the alternatives and concludes the earliest Platonic works, namely The Republic for the cave, are the best representation of Socrates. I'm all ears to hear your alternative version.

Some of us virgin academics got seriously punked by the dean of our philosophy teachers, formerly head of graduate faculty at Columbia until unceremoniously leaving ostensibly for getting into a wrong wife's pants. He said, "Socrates you know, deep down was a sophist." So much for reality.

 

[jhm]

U.S. Natural Gas to Be World’s Priciest Amid Virus Upheaval


(Bloomberg) -- For the first time in more than a decade, U.S. natural gas is set to be the world’s most expensive as Covid-19 lockdowns wallop demand in other regions.

Gas futures in the U.S. have rallied about 10% this month as traders bet that a historic crash in oil prices will drive American shale companies to halt more drilling and curb output of gas, which is extracted as a byproduct. In Europe and Asia, meanwhile, prices are sliding to fresh lows due to a supply glut and languishing consumption amid the pandemic.

You should post this is the Shorting Oil thread. We also discuss gas and LNG there. For a few years I've been saying that the global LNG market would be a disaster. It's basically a dumping ground for excess gas. It costs several dollars to liquefy an mmBTU of gas and ship it to Asia. Imagine the return on buying gas at $1.8/mmBTU in Texas and selling it in the high $1/mmBTU price range as LNG in Japan/Korea. If associated gas goes into decline because producers can find a place to store oil, this can only be good for the price of gas in the US. LNG was never really meant to be profitable. It was only function to get surplus gas out of the domestic market, to mitigate losses on overproduction of associated gas.

 

[Dare]

You should post this is the Shorting Oil thread. We also discuss gas and LNG there. For a few years I've been saying that the global LNG market would be a disaster. It's basically a dumping ground for excess gas. It costs several dollars to liquefy an mmBTU of gas and ship it to Asia. Imagine the return on buying gas at $1.8/mmBTU in Texas and selling it in the high $1/mmBTU price range as LNG in Japan/Korea. If associated gas goes into decline because producers can find a place to store oil, this can only be good for the price of gas in the US. LNG was never really meant to be profitable. It was only function to get surplus gas out of the domestic market, to mitigate losses on overproduction of associated gas.

Ok, done. Great thread I lurk all the time.

 

[StealthP3D]

For some reason you have a skewed sense of how many people use air transport. 2015 Gallup poll showed 45% in US had flown within the past year.

Airlines

Boeing brags that 80% of all people have never flown in an airplane. Not even once in their entire lives.

Boeing CEO: Over 80% of the world has never taken a flight. We’re leveraging that for growth

Yes, that's worldwide but I'm not sure why it makes sense to cherry-pick from one country or region considering that the environmental impact of all those flights impacts the people who don't ever fly more than those who do (because global warming disproportionately impacts poorer people).

80% have never flown and of the 20% who have flown at least once in their life, probably less than 1/4 of those are responsible for the vast majority of airline miles. This means around 5% are responsible for the vast majority of all air miles.

 

[CaliBear1]

I’m going to stick to understanding the lexicon of options.

Totally OT:

Poker bad beat story: I was deep in a tourney in late position. I 3 bet 3 limpers preflop. Villain calls, heads up to the flop. Flop gives me a set, villain checks, I bet, she calls.Turn pairs the board giving me a boat. Villain bets, I raise all in, she calls. River gives her quads. So, she didn't just hit a one outer on river but it immediately followed hitting a two outer on the turn. Runner runner. 1/1200 chance. And she and I were dating!

PS: Love your posts. Keep it up.

PSS: I don't think you had cause to be mad at your opponent. He sucked out for sure but it looks like his play was reasonable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the 5th installment in the 7 part series by @avoigt: "7 Reasons Why Tesla Will Benefit In The Crisis #5 Innovation"