Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Says you!
I'm always looking for a hero and glad Tesla grabbed another one.

Now as to SP...yes it is going all according to plan.

 

[Intl Professor]

Going out on a limb here to predict short term SP movement for today because I just declared that I NEVER do it — SP going nowhere fast.

And not to disappoint the melodramatic or currently overly sensitive amongst us:

Perhaps a ‘hiro can save us all?’

Everyone. Take a deep breath. There is nothing going on *here* that requires panty wadding — ever. Internet forums are never important enough to get your nose out of joint over.

Ommmmmmmmmmmn.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

And this is where we end the 'batterygate' discussion. It should not have been introduced in this thread in the first place, because it leads to a never ending exchange of personal anecdotes for which there are dedicated threads. Topic starter should have known better than to introduce it here. And yesterday I should have known better than to let it slide.

You were right in the middle of the umpteenth day-long advertising conversation in this thread on Wednesday. What's the difference?

The posting boundaries of this thread are completely arbitrary.

 

[Green Pete]

You were right in the middle of the umpteenth day-long advertising conversation in this thread on Wednesday. What's the difference?

The posting boundaries of this thread are completely arbitrary.

It wasn't an adversarial mod comment its doesn't need to be made into one. Sometimes things get off the rails and get redirected and sometimes they don't. Neither advertising discussions nor battery gate discussions are all the relevant to investing in Tesla right now. Maybe both should have been flagged, but considering earnings is next week I am sad I could see the typical group effort to pull in as much information as possible.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

A general idea for any issue you want taking seriously by those unaware is not to call it whatevergate.

Watergate is fine but calling anything after that whatevergate is the equivalent of clickbait.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla likely to extend advantage over OEMS in electric cars during coronavirus-driven recession: Baird

“The recession created by the coronavirus pandemic is likely to help Tesla Inc. TSLA+1.03%extend its advantage in electric vehicles over the major car markers, or original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), which may be forced to delay their own electric initiatives, Baird analyst Ben Kallo said Friday. “

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Currently, Alameda County (where Fremont Factory is located) Shelter in Place Order is ending on May 4. When Tesla plans on re-opening the Fremont factory.

http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov/shelter-in-place.aspx

I suspect the shelter order will get extended but not as strict as before. I'm also 99% sure manufacturing will be exempt if it goes get extended but office/tech jobs (like the Palo Alto office) will still work from home. Basically, I have zero doubts Tesla and other bay area manufacturers will begin going back May 4th.

If it does, Elon is 100% going to drop a Star Wars Meme.

 

[StealthP3D]

Look what is on the cover of Consumer Reports annual Auto Issue.

Guess which car is on the Top 10 list.

Oh, the bastards!

Of course, the Model 3 is in the top 10. But being "in the top 10" is different from being the top car. And I gather it's not #1 since you didn't mention that.

While I will admit I haven't driven the vast majority of the new 2020 models, I don't think I need to drive them in order to know they are are not radically different from the 2018 models. And that none of them can come close to the driving/ownership experience of a Model 3.

They probably compared the $40,000 Model 3 to a $30,000 Toyota or Honda and concluded that while the Model 3 has vastly superior driving experience, including better handling, much better acceleration, better safety for both occupants and pedestrians/other motorists and a more extensive list of driver aids, and it requires much less frequent servicing, that it's not as good of a "value" because it costs a bit more. I bet they didn't even consider resale value.

It wouldn't surprise me if Consumer Reports starts touting Ford's innovation and speed with which they are transitioning into the alternative energy markets:

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B075F8KJH...01&tag=ss-us-20&aaxitk=9dAAiQXjFOaWQAX8J2V9mg

 

[Tim S]

Oh, the bastards!

Of course, the Model 3 is in the top 10. But being "in the top 10" is different from being the top car. And I gather it's not #1 since you didn't mention that.

While I will admit I haven't driven the vast majority of the new 2020 models, I don't think I need to drive them in order to know they are are not radically different from the 2018 models. And that none of them can come close to the driving/ownership experience of a Model 3.

They probably compared the $40,000 Model 3 to a $30,000 Toyota or Honda and concluded that while the Model 3 has vastly superior driving experience, including better handling, much better acceleration, better safety for both occupants and pedestrians/other motorists and a more extensive list of driver aids, and it requires much less frequent servicing, that it's not as good of a "value" because it costs a bit more. I bet they didn't even consider resale value.

It wouldn't surprise me if Consumer Reports starts touting Ford's innovation and speed with which they are transitioning into the alternative energy markets:

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B075F8KJH...01&tag=ss-us-20&aaxitk=9dAAiQXjFOaWQAX8J2V9mg

Consumer Reports "10 Top Picks" are their top picks in each of 10 different categories (small sedan, small SUV, midsize sedan, etc). Model 3 is their top pick in "Electric Cars".

FYI that issue (April) has been out for over a month so this is not breaking news.

 

[Boomer19]

Apologies for starting it. I wanted to know the possible impacts on TSLA if Battery gate was for real and to see if this really is a big enough issue to worry about. That would certainly have a heck of a lot more impact on TSLA than many (if not most) of the other topics discussed here. Especially if this possible problem will eventually even occur on new batteries being produced. The other battery gate threads are full of extra salty owners who claim they will do nothing but badmouth Tesla from here on out and I cannot get good read on the real situation. Some of those people are claiming the complete downfall of the company. I think that’s overblown but wanted opinions from here. This thread seems to be a bit more “level headed” on average. Hence why I brought it up. When I have 7 figures riding on the line here (Long TSLA), I think it’s pretty darn important.

But the good news is that I can still come here for the umpteenth hiro joke without persecution. Keep driving away the proponents of Tesla and all this site will end up with are the ones who want to see Tesla fail.

Normally I would have just let your comment slide about stopping the discussion and complied without response. But when I read the “Topic starter should have known better” sentence, that triggered me and I think was uncalled for. I can see why the two largest contributors Fact Checking and Karen Rei left. Requests to stop a topic discussion can be made without adding unnecessary lines like “should have known better”.

it is relevant, but the problem is people will to rehash the stories here instead of talk about the potential impact to tsla share price. as with many cases here, it’s not so much the topic as it is the people‘s/poster’s content in relation (or non-relation really) to the topic.

so i get where you’re coming from, as it interests many of us, too.

 

[Krugerrand]

Consumer Reports "10 Top Picks" are their top picks in each of 10 different categories (small sedan, small SUV, midsize sedan, etc). Model 3 is their top pick in "Electric Cars".

FYI that issue (April) has been out for over a month so this is not breaking news.

Well then, that must have been a really hard decision to come to as the top EV.

 

[Krugerrand]

it is relevant, but the problem is people will to rehash the stories here instead of talk about the potential impact to tsla share price. as with many cases here, it’s not so much the topic as it is the people‘s/poster’s content in relation (or non-relation really) to the topic.

so i get where you’re coming from, as it interests many of us, too.

It’ll make zero difference. That’s the truth. We’re way past the point of a small lawsuit or a handful of older car owners effectively causing significant ‘OMG! A Model S exploded into flames after hitting a concrete barrier and tree at 100mph.’

Recall and replace, don’t recall and replace, win the lawsuit, lose the lawsuit; none will make a difference. That people want to think it will or that every other small thing will somehow cause a huge Tesla or TSLA issue is irrelevant. They’re wrong.

What can make VERY SHORT term difference is what the MEDIA decides it will flog. Like lose a board member, OMG! Is this the collapse of Tesla? Here’s a list of every board member and executive ever to walk through Tesla. See!!! Disaster!!

Add a board member (arguably a VERY BIG win for Tesla) and barely a peep. Like Tesla’s BOD just got a whole lot stronger, but the media; meh. Some middle aged foreign dude joined, and remember Elon got removed as chair.

So the question isn’t about the individual subject but rather will the media and then more importantly, Wallstreet see ‘it’ as good or bad?

Tesla did what it thought best for its customers. Some disagree. It’ll be worked out between Tesla and the owners at some point via this lawsuit. Wallstreet’s take is meh.

Here’s a little tidbit for Tesla owners; it appears to me from historical data that you have a better chance of getting what you want from Tesla when you approach them in a certain way. A lawsuit is not that certain way, nor is being belligerent, or running to the media or the Internet.

I’m not judging either party as right or wrong, I’m just stating what has become clear to me.

What will happen after this ER on short term price action is a damn crap shoot. That people here still think they can predict the SP movement because they’ve got this huge stack of data is comical and delusional. So complaining about certain members not being here and off topic and all that is irrelevant and won’t get you any closer to being richer.

I’ll predict for you. If Tesla posts a profit, the SP will move up — at least for a day or two. Any other Tesla result can result in the SP going up or down at the will of the money people.

So go do your own math. You’ve got production and delivery numbers and decide if Tesla posted a profit or something else.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla patents a new electrode for its 1 million-mile battery - Electrek

I actually find this a bit disappointing since it suggests they might not be moving away from NCA and might not be eliminating cobalt, two things I was hoping to hear on Battery Day.

 

[wipster]

Plato was a student of Socrates. Like any 2500 year old tale there are few reliable clues to what is genuine. I'm old enough to have been present at the time but memory fails now. I do remember reading A.E. Taylor's, Socrates for my quals. in political theory in the early sixties of the last century. Taylor does a tedious tour through the alternatives and concludes the earliest Platonic works, namely The Republic for the cave, are the best representation of Socrates. I'm all ears to hear your alternative version.

Some of us virgin academics got seriously punked by the dean of our philosophy teachers, formerly head of graduate faculty at Columbia until unceremoniously leaving ostensibly for getting into a wrong wife's pants. He said, "Socrates you know, deep down was a sophist." So much for reality.

You need to put that in the form of a question...

 

[Unpilot]

I am thinking about joining Tesla's BOD.

Do I need to talk to anyone in particular for this position?

The reason I want to join is because they need to spend more time on landing craft and anti-gravity devices.

O and more advertising.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I actually find this a bit disappointing since it suggests they might not be moving away from NCA and might not be eliminating cobalt, two things I was hoping to hear on Battery Day.

Tesla patents battery chemisty in order to release it into the public domain, via their open patents policy. IMHO, this is done to support the growth of the EV industry (and 2ndy to CYA on anti-trust suits post 2025... )

There will be unique, proprietary chemisty in Tesla's new batteries. This is just lazy thinking on the part of redFAy.

For good analysis of Tesla's upcoming battery chemisty, see this video. He explains in detail why Tesla won't use Cobalt in the new battery (hint: its a fire hazard), and how the new bty works without it:

New Information Tesla Battery Investor Day - YouTube

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla patents battery chemisty in order to release it into the public domain, via their open patents policy. IMHO, this is done to support the growth of the EV industry (and 2ndy to CYA on anti-trust suits post 2025... )

Actually they patent things so that they are protected from other people patenting them and then trying to extort money out of Tesla for the use of them.

As far as Tesla's open patents, I'm not sure that they are all open. (Their site list specific patents that that applies to.) And even the ones that are come with a significant poison pill such that most companies, at least ones that have their own patents, won't touch them with a 10k foot pole. I bet Tesla would love for Intel/Mobileye to use one of Tesla's "free"/open patents...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Folks don't realize the extra 14K vehicles that Tesla produced in 2020Q1 will all be sold in Q2, and the profits from those sales will be added to Q2 financial results.

Tesla's (TSLA) Q1 overproduction could make for strong Q2, says Baird

So, combined with unlocking significant (high margin) revenue from releasing new FSD features in Q2, it is sizing up to be a profitable quarter.

Remember, to qualify for admission to the S&P 500, TSLA needs a slight profit in its previous quarter, and to be overall profitable on a 4 Qtrs trailing avg basis. Since Tesla already has ~$246M in profits booked from 2019 Q3+Q4, then as long as 2020Q1 has a loss smaller than that and a small profit it Q2, we're qualified.

Is qualification an assurance for admission to the S&P500? Well, they'd be crazy not to. TSLA is on the the very few profitable, growing companies in 2020, and even with its current Market Cap, TSLA would enter the index in the Top 50 largest companies on the S&P 500.

Cheers!

 

[JRP3]

Tesla patents battery chemisty in order to release it into the public domain, via their open patents policy. IMHO, this is done to support the growth of the EV industry (and 2ndy to CYA on anti-trust suits post 2025... )

There will be unique, proprietary chemisty in Tesla's new batteries. This is just lazy thinking on the part of redFAy.

For good analysis of Tesla's upcoming battery chemisty, see this video: (he explains in detail why Tesla does not and will not use Cobalt hint: its a fire hazard)

New Information Tesla Battery Investor Day - YouTube

I'm aware of that video, since I was the one who originally posted it here. Since no one else is using NCA chemistry I don't see how Tesla releasing this patent does anything to support the growth of the EV industry. So if Tesla has no intention of using this patent and if no one else is likely to use it it's rather pointless. Now it may be applicable to other cell chemistries and this is simply a hint at what might be coming.

 

[madodel]

I am thinking about joining Tesla's BOD.

Do I need to talk to anyone in particular for this position?

The reason I want to join is because they need to spend more time on landing craft and anti-gravity devices.

O and more advertising.

I can’t support you since you are not positioning time machines as critical to the mission.