Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Boeing brags that 80% of all people have never flown in an airplane. Not even once in their entire lives.

Boeing CEO: Over 80% of the world has never taken a flight. We’re leveraging that for growth

Yes, that's worldwide but I'm not sure why it makes sense to cherry-pick from one country or region considering that the environmental impact of all those flights impacts the people who don't ever fly more than those who do (because global warming disproportionately impacts poorer people).

80% have never flown and of the 20% who have flown at least once in their life, probably less than 1/4 of those are responsible for the vast majority of airline miles. This means around 5% are responsible for the vast majority of all air miles.

The context of the original post was governments bailing out airlines due to CV-related drop in ridership. The countries that do so are likely to be those like the US, whose economy is tied to business and recreational air travel and subsequently have high ridership. Environmental impact is a different issue.

 

[2Pearls]

I agree. As both an owner and an investor I'd like to see Tesla do the right thing, even if it hurts the SP temporarily. Even more so for the very earliest adopters. Without them we'd never have Tesla and the world wouldn't be where it is today on the road to more sustainable transportation.

As a customer I simply want to be listened to and treated fairly.

I was an early adopter and bought one of the first 5000 Model S. When my battery and motor started failing, they replaced them, no questions asked, so, I see a very different side of Tesla service doing the right thing for their customers.

 

[MartinAustin]

New board member Hiromchi Mizuno.

I have to admit, I've been holding out for a Hiro

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Last night I watched this video by Teslas AI dude:

its basically about the challenges, and approaches tesla is taking to FSD. Its REALLY wworth watching. I'm a computer programmer, and have dabbled with neural net stuff, so I was especially interested, but its interesting for everyone and I thoroughly recomend every investor watches it. If I was not married and living and working from home in rural england, I'd be applying to work at tesla right now...

Anyway, the short summary:

Recognizing stop signs is HARD, because although the sign is simple, the circumstances for the edge cases are insane. Some stop signs are lit up at night, making themn *harder* to see for cameras. Some are on buildings, some are obscured by trees, some are on a stick held by a construction worker. Some are on barriers that lift. Some have writing underneath them that modifies the intention oif the sign.

The real big one for me is... a construction worker holds a stop sign, and its valid, when he lowers it (but you can STILL see it), its no longer valid, and the car can proceed. These edge cases are really hard to detect, but tesla is working on it and has a massive advantage in collecting data on it.

Basically what I'm saying is that the edge cases than joe-public assumes are impossible (stop sign not normally there, but a dude was holding one on a stick) are not only on teslas radar, they are wworking through them RIGHT NOW. And like Elons approach to spacex (dont built the rocket, build the system that builds the rocket), Tesla are building an AUTOMATEd system to handle cases like this, identify them, categorise them, analyze them and update the fleet with them.

Shorter version:
Waymo are ****ed. Everyone else is ****ed, Uber is ****ed. Teslas FSD system is light years ahead already, without even stretching the ability of the HW3 chip.

Watch the video, it will make you much more confident about the possibility of real FSD. I was flabbergasted. And automatic-distance estimation per pixel just using cameras...LOL. Lidar is such a dead end.

 

[jw934]

Tesla raises China-made Model 3 prices [starting July 23] after EV subsidies cut - CNBC

China EV prices have subsidies built in, so when the government cuts, Tesla needs to raise price to maintain the same revenue. There is a 3 month transition period, so I am guessing customers who complete the purchase before July 23 will still be able to get them at the lower price. This should help increase orders for the next few days until the delivery date is post July 23.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla patents a new electrode for its 1 million-mile battery - Electrek

 

[jerry33]

How many miles can your 2013 S do on a full charge?

Before I traded it in a few weeks ago, it wasn't a problem getting 250 miles.

 

[jerry33]

I took delivery of my S in December 2012 (reserved in 2010!) and am now on my second S. Pretty much in the same boat as you with my 2014 S.

FWIW:
As best I can tell, I lost 8% of range from new (early 2013 S). The most common expectation when I purchased was that 5% would be lost the first year and 1% every year thereafter. 5+6=11% expected loss after seven years. So the actual degradation was less than anticipated for me. However, the rate of charging was reduced enough so that charging time doubled (after the upgrade). I traded in for an X because of that and because I'm getting paranoid about falling asleep at the wheel on a trip, which even AP will prevent. (Another factor was that my friends are getting less flexible and were having a bit of a problem getting into the S.)

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla raises China-made Model 3 prices [starting July 23] after EV subsidies cut - CNBC

China EV prices have subsidies built in, so when the government cuts, Tesla needs to raise price to maintain the same revenue. There is a 3 month transition period, so I am guessing customers who complete the purchase before July 23 will still be able to get them at the lower price. This should help increase orders for the next few days until the delivery date is post July 23.

This is excellent, though the FUDsters may try to squeeze the "sudden demand drop" post subsidies topic again.

However, this may try to squeeze some sales into the Q2/top of Q3, if they had any 'spare' cars already. Though from my understanding, most MIC M3's are sold out until the summer already.

 

[RobStark]

Currently, Alameda County (where Fremont Factory is located) Shelter in Place Order is ending on May 4. When Tesla plans on re-opening the Fremont factory.

http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov/shelter-in-place.aspx

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

And this is where we end the 'batterygate' discussion. It should not have been introduced in this thread in the first place, because it leads to a never ending exchange of personal anecdotes for which there are dedicated threads. Topic starter should have known better than to introduce it here. And yesterday I should have known better than to let it slide.

 

[jbcarioca]

The 2014 WSJ article on Hiromichi Mizuno is behind a paywall:
Japan to Name Hiromichi Mizuno CIO of Public Pension Fund

Among the Japanese financial people I know he is regarded as a serious outlier. He allegedly was deeply influenced by his Northwestern MBA experiences as well as long experience as a portfolio manager. He is a rare breed in Japan, with serious devotion to sound corporate governance, gender equality and, also, an unusual dedication to environmentalism. Perhaps most unusual, he’s only ~50 but has moved around a bit. He was considered a radical departure when he joined the Government Pension Investment Fund, which prior to him had been composed almost entirely of traditional ‘lifer’ government bureaucrats so invested mostly in Japan government bonds.

He is quite famous among the Japanese Finance types I know, who are themselves outliers due to Harvard MBA’s and the like, coupled with long experience around the world. My best friend among them claims he’s pretty modest , but I rather suspect that is relative. He’s highly confident too. This fellow claims there will be “significant benefits’ for Tesla.

That's all I know. My friend has talked about ‘Hiro’ for the last decade. The westernized nickname is alleged to be immodest but accurate.

 

[jw934]

Tesla raises China-made Model 3 prices [starting July 23] after EV subsidies cut - CNBC

China EV prices have subsidies built in, so when the government cuts, Tesla needs to raise price to maintain the same revenue. There is a 3 month transition period, so I am guessing customers who complete the purchase before July 23 will still be able to get them at the lower price. This should help increase orders for the next few days until the delivery date is post July 23.

Also, this will prevent existing orders from being cancelled due to economic impact of C19

 

[ggies07]

(Bloomberg) -- For the first time in more than a decade, U.S. natural gas is set to be the world’s most expensive as Covid-19 lockdowns wallop demand in other regions.

Gas futures in the U.S. have rallied about 10% this month as traders bet that a historic crash in oil prices will drive American shale companies to halt more drilling and curb output of gas, which is extracted as a byproduct. In Europe and Asia, meanwhile, prices are sliding to fresh lows due to a supply glut and languishing consumption amid the pandemic.

Battery Day can't come soon enough! I hope Tesla is ready to deploy their new chemistry/batteries because this would be the perfect time to crush natural gas.

 

[willow_hiller]

New Munro video. He's gotten down to bare metal and covers the "mega casting" in this one:

 

[RobStark]

Look what is on the cover of Consumer Reports annual Auto Issue.

Guess which car is on the Top 10 list.

 

[SO16]

And this is where we end the 'batterygate' discussion. It should not have been introduced in this thread in the first place, because it leads to a never ending exchange of personal anecdotes for which there are dedicated threads. Topic starter should have known better than to introduce it here. And yesterday I should have known better than to let it slide.

Apologies for starting it. I wanted to know the possible impacts on TSLA if Battery gate was for real and to see if this really is a big enough issue to worry about. That would certainly have a heck of a lot more impact on TSLA than many (if not most) of the other topics discussed here. Especially if this possible problem will eventually even occur on new batteries being produced. The other battery gate threads are full of extra salty owners who claim they will do nothing but badmouth Tesla from here on out and I cannot get good read on the real situation. Some of those people are claiming the complete downfall of the company. I think that’s overblown but wanted opinions from here. This thread seems to be a bit more “level headed” on average. Hence why I brought it up. When I have 7 figures riding on the line here (Long TSLA), I think it’s pretty darn important.

But the good news is that I can still come here for the umpteenth hiro joke without persecution. Keep driving away the proponents of Tesla and all this site will end up with are the ones who want to see Tesla fail.

Normally I would have just let your comment slide about stopping the discussion and complied without response. But when I read the “Topic starter should have known better” sentence, that triggered me and I think was uncalled for. I can see why the two largest contributors Fact Checking and Karen Rei left. Requests to stop a topic discussion can be made without adding unnecessary lines like “should have known better”.

 

[Zaxxon]

Wow, zero posts for the first 40+ minutes the market has been open. Congrats on the restraint, folks!

 

[Krugerrand]

Going out on a limb here to predict short term SP movement for today because I just declared that I NEVER do it — SP going nowhere fast.

And not to disappoint the melodramatic or currently overly sensitive amongst us:

Perhaps a ‘hiro can save us all?’

Everyone. Take a deep breath. There is nothing going on *here* that requires panty wadding — ever. Internet forums are never important enough to get your nose out of joint over.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Wow, zero posts for the first 40+ minutes the market has been open. Congrats on the restraint, folks!

We're trying not to jinx it.