Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

Boy, the disagree train sure can be fun around here. I post an actual experience I've had, a factual statement backed up by real trade offers for extremely similar cars, but it's not what some folks think/want to be true so they disagree. Since it is relevant to TSLA investing I'm mentioning it again--FSD may at some point significantly improve resale value, but at present, when trading in to Tesla, it does not. This is not an opinion, but a fact.

If/when robotaxis or even true self-driving exist, I think it will be a profitable option to have.

 

[Nocturnal]

I am surprised the Barcaly's comments about a possible surprise profit didn't move the stock. I suppose the market has been weird today.

Boy, the disagree train sure can be fun around here. I post an actual experience I've had, a factual statement backed up by real trade offers for extremely similar cars, but it's not what some folks think/want to be true so they disagree. Since it is relevant to TSLA investing I'm mentioning it again--FSD may at some point significantly improve resale value, but at present, when trading in to Tesla, it does not. This is not an opinion, but a fact.

If/when robotaxis or even true self-driving exist, I think it will be a profitable option to have.

That's just the basics of demand. Of course a feature that is not valuable to all potential owners will not raise the resale value in accordance with cost. I have FSD, it was worth it to me. It's not worth it to many so that limits my pool of potential buyers unless I discount for FSD. It's like putting a pool in your backyard vs renovating your kitchen.

 

[Words of HABIT]

"Model Y E27: Rear Suspension, Signs of Air Suspension to Come, and Rear EDM Summary Munro Live"

BTW, a Model Y reservation holder from Ontario, Canada said they were contacted by Tesla asking if they would be able to take delivery of their 7-seat Model Y in Q2.

Sounds like Tesla has been busy upgrading Fremont / Seat production equipment during the downtime. Remember, the 7-seat option is an extremely popular / highly ordered option, and its quite likely a very profitable option for about $3,500

In Canada, the 7-seat option also unlocks the higher MSRP threshold for the Federal EV subsidy (vs a 5-seater like Model 3), so I expect the take-rate (at least in Canada) to be very high indeed. It's "Free seats", plus enough extra to pay for a choice of paint colour.

Model Y is gonna be a huge hit in Canada, what with that heat pump goodness and all...

Cheers!

@Artful Dodger , agree the 7 seater MY will be a huge seller and is the option I am waiting for. However, after checking the Tesla Canada web site just now, the 7 seater option ($4000 CAD) is not available until 2021 and the order page will not even let you place a reservation for a 7 seater MY so MY 7 seater for Canada in Q2 is not going to happen. Site does say mid 2020 for Model MY (5 seater) which is a lot sooner than I would have expected, thinking that US will want to flood their home market before exporting to other Countries.

 

[StealthP3D]

Boy, the disagree train sure can be fun around here. I post an actual experience I've had, a factual statement backed up by real trade offers for extremely similar cars, but it's not what some folks think/want to be true so they disagree. Since it is relevant to TSLA investing I'm mentioning it again--FSD may at some point significantly improve resale value, but at present, when trading in to Tesla, it does not. This is not an opinion, but a fact.

Two points here:

1) Your personal experience is not the "be all, end all".
2) You went from talking about resale value to trade-in value. Two very different things.

Now, where is the facepalm emoticon?

 

[Artful Dodger]

agree the 7 seater MY will be a huge seller and is the option I am waiting for. However, after checking the Tesla Canada web site just now, the 7 seater option ($4000 CAD) is not available until 2021

lol, you seem to have missed the actual POINT of my comment, which is that there's a guy in Toronto tweeting that he's been offered a 7-seater Y delivery in Q2. Remains to be seen if this is legit. We should know in a few weeks if others get the same offer.

Cheers!

 

[LJS22]

Boy, the disagree train sure can be fun around here. I post an actual experience I've had, a factual statement backed up by real trade offers for extremely similar cars, but it's not what some folks think/want to be true so they disagree. Since it is relevant to TSLA investing I'm mentioning it again--FSD may at some point significantly improve resale value, but at present, when trading in to Tesla, it does not. This is not an opinion, but a fact.

If/when robotaxis or even true self-driving exist, I think it will be a profitable option to have.

I added FSD after I bought my 3 and last month when I did a trade in quote they offered me more than I paid for the car, so I only assume they include some value on FSD licensing.

but onto investing, hows everyone feeling this earnings season? Haha

 

[capster]

Assuming FSD was monthly then $7000 spread over 5 years would be $117 a month.

Not bad, not great. I could go for it on one car but not all 3.

When Tesla is delivering a chauffeur-like experience, I’d bet quite a bit that a lot of people would consider that a great value.

Oh wait, I already did ‘bet,’ invest really, quite a bit (for me anyway) on this among many other things by buying TSLA and hodling.

Yup, my cunning plan of buying what I could when I could and never selling is working like a charm. Ha ha, take that Wall Street bastages!

 

[MP3Mike]

OMG. Is there not a "I've had a good idea about how Tesla should sell FSD" thread.

Are you saying that how Tesla sells/licenses FSD isn't relevant to it's long term valuation? I certainly think it is, which is why transferrable licenses, as most people want them, are very bad for Tesla.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

If/when robotaxis or even true self-driving exist, I think it will be a profitable option to have.

But the price will not be the same for buying a FSD for private use or one for robotaxi use.

Why would Tesla sell you a car with FSD added for say 10k and let you make 100 k in x years when they could not sell the car and make that money themselves?

So FSD for robotaxis will be much more expensive. At a price where it would be way too high for private use for those that will not lend their cars to robotaxi fleet. This means there has to be a price difference between private and taxi.

Yes, those that already have paid for FSD before some unknown date will perhaps be able to do so.

In reality it will be subscription for maybe $50/month private use and $500/month taxi. Actually the taxi rate will probably be per mile used as taxi.

I'll eat someones hat if you can still buy FSD for a reasonable amount in five years instead of subscription being the only choice.

 

[UCF3]

Boy, the disagree train sure can be fun around here. I post an actual experience I've had, a factual statement backed up by real trade offers for extremely similar cars, but it's not what some folks think/want to be true so they disagree. Since it is relevant to TSLA investing I'm mentioning it again--FSD may at some point significantly improve resale value, but at present, when trading in to Tesla, it does not.

Everyone knows that if you trade your FSD car into Tesla you’re leaving money on the table. Huge difference selling used FSD to private party

 

[jerry33]

Economy Minister Brandenburg Steinbach said, The project is well underway.

So is the airport.

 

[jerry33]

I'm surprised. I didn't think it made sense for a growth company like Tesla to offer FSD subscriptions. Perhaps the disadvantage of less up-front cash is outweighed by potentially more customers and more data.

I'd think they'd have fewer because few would want to pay a monthly fee until it's complete.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

So is the airport.

Obsolete before it was finished.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I'd think they'd have fewer because few would want to pay a monthly fee until it's complete.

Yeah, they will probably not start offering subscriptions until FSD is at, or very near, completion.

 

[jerry33]

You think Texas is gonna throw less bullshit at Tesla than Germany? Is it even legal to buy a Tesla in Texas?

I believe Texas has the number two spot for registered vehicles after California. So while the paperwork must be done elsewhere, it doesn't appear to stop many people. Of course, there's no reason for Tesla to have a GF in Texas if they are not going to play ball.

 

[avoigt]

So is the airport.

Fun fact: Today the Berlin Airport received the final permission and will open in October 2020

Baubehörde erteilt Nutzungsfreigabe: Chaos-Airport BER darf im Oktober öffnen

 

[jerry33]

Yes. Toyota really doesn't want to be on the EV train. It's odd.

It's called corporate culture. They will have to start losing massive market share in Japan to change. (Losing massive market share was what let them develop the Prius).

 

[jerry33]

100% agree. The Texas dealership thing is moot with on-line ordering. And now that we know what to look for, the dealerships won’t try to sneak another anti-servicing clause into legislation.

It's not actually moot. There are still many people in Texas who think you have to drive out of the state to purchase, so they don't even consider it until they are educated.

 

[wtlloyd]

Why do people here assume that RoboTaxi will utilize current models? Doesn't it seem much more likely that private party purchasers will consume all available production for current models? A RoboTaxi would be much more advantageous as a purpose-built vehicle. Exoskeleton. Easily sanitized interior. Battery packs sized proportionate to actual short term commute need - the vast bulk of early committed users will be urban areas, for a short time span each morning and evening - doesn't take 100 Kwh packs to service that. I see subscription based commuter vehicles in single, double and four passenger versions determine the rate charged. You will be able to lock in regular riders, or let the algorithym flex who and where the additional passengers will be on a daily basis.
I see a dedicated GF producing these vehicles in short term, ground breaking likely before 2025.
Utilizing current private passenger models is wasteful and unsuited to profitability and the desire to quickly ramp up service.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Sorry. Truly. Not personal friend. It’s the sum of a lot not the instance. No harm meant.

Edit: I’m leaving my message up in protest to mods, not to specifically reflect you.

I welcome the ban if I’ve crossed the line, but if not id like us to make the round table slightly more open where topical conversation can turn into a multi-person semi-off-track dialog. I find benefit in hearing the opinions of others and find it easy to skip through the ~8 pages a trading day without feeling “spammed”.

I also feel a lot of users are telling others to “go post there”, and I’m kinda not liking that result so I’m voting in a non-democracy.

I took my trading specific stuff out happily. But if new user joe wants to chime in on FSD pricing (in this specific instance but consider a general case), I personally believe the round table is the place.

It’s a place that new user can have immediate dialog and be welcomed, their opinion considered if quality. i like the train wreck we have here (during trading hours when topical, and personally I like anything after hours).

If I’m wrong I’ll accept and be humble and respectful.

Sorry friend for being a jerk.

It’s been months of people telling people where to go talk and I personally want to vote to draw the line.

I’m sorry, you’re good people, I just have been fed up about this for awhile. Heart emoji.

This is truly a result of a long period of me being annoyed, and I’ve always respected you.

In protest to the mods? You may not be aware, but one moderator has stepped down (ggr) and another one (me) is taking a more laid back approach. Main reason: we were tired of being ignored about OT stuff, and I guess a lot of posters were equally tired of being bothered by mods about OT stuff. So now it’s mostly up to the posters to self moderate (with the occasional exception). Some days that works out fine, others days - today is one of them - not so much. Protesting will not change anything. It is what it is.