Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

There's a neat photo of the module and pack production line in Shanghai

Gigafactory Shanghai - Battery Module & Pack Production Line ( from Q1 2020 Earnings Letter)

Cheers!

 

[SageBrush]

I just listened to the call, and Elon’s comments on the lockdown seem to come from a far deeper place than just frustration over Fremont’s shutdown. It’s really a strong libertarian principled objection. America the free.

I considered this also. Certainly libertarianism runs strong in Silicon Valley.

But a simpler explanation suffices: Tesla is a young, highly educated and highly motivated workforce, and Musk know how to keep his workers safe. If the entire USA was Tesla we would not have reached the point of needing SAH in the first place.

Alas, it is not.

 

[FrankSG]

@FrankSG why do you think that Giga Texas would be 100% dedicated to battery production and not have a line for Cybertruck?

That's the impression I got from listening to the call. Especially when Elon later said that the next Giga will be announced within 1-3 months, and would be for the USA.

My interpretation is that the one in Texas will be for batteries, as he said they would hopefully hold Battery Day there. And the other one that will be announced within 1-3 days will serve the east coast and probably produce Cybertrucks and Model Y for the east coast (and maybe semi too?).

My interpretation could be wrong, but I'd think that he wouldn't talk about holding batter day at a factory in Texas and then a few minutes later talk about a new Giga announcement if these factories were one and the same.

 

[EV forever]

Except that Mr Newsom also is willing to allow the 6 Bay Area counties (including the one where Fremont factory is located) to do their own thing. In this case a more stringent plan with the shelter at home order being extended to June 1 now and NO clear time line when the majority of new unemployed can try to get a job again. That’s 10 solid weeks of no income for a lot people.

The orders don’t actually affect me much, so I can roll with it. And now that toilet paper finally showed up in my local store after not seeing a roll for close to six weeks, I’m real good.

But Elon’s exactly right. There are people losing everything they’ve worked hard for their entires lives. The private contractor I hired to do my renos is one such person. I texted him last week just to let him know the minute he can work, he can count on my job. He was so appreciative to hear that from me.

Then there’s my massage therapist. Same boat and no idea when they can work again. Not cool.

Well, just have been reading the message board light up with the only focus being on a tiny aspect that I am sure will be on everyone's mind tomorrow. As a resident of Orange County, CA - I wholeheartedly agree with Elon. What I am seeing across is the board is a lack of plan on how we transition back to work. I am sure my post will get plenty of disagrees here.

Folks like me are comfortable in their homes with WFH policies, kids are home supposedly studying online - but what about the hundreds of small businesses who are going to go under? My hairdresser, the laundry guy, my housecleaning crew, the nail salon I go to every 3 weeks. The only business which did not seem to stop at all was the gardener, his crew of 2 comes to work every week.

The business I feel most sorry about is the lady who does my nails - she and her husband after years of saving while working at a nearby salon opened their own nail salon 6 months back. They were just establishing a good clientele working 9 am to 7pm every day 7 days/week and had to shutdown for last 6 weeks. How long can their business survive with no end to the shutdown in sight? It is hardworking people like these who I really feel sorry for!

There was a reason for the shutdown - to flatten the curve and avoid overwhelming the hospitals. Well, see the graphs below - I would say that the bay area counties have done this quite successfully. Now there needs to be a plan, just like Gov Newson laid out, to start transitioning to opening up the businesses. But the Bay Area counties seem to be in their own world - What is their justification for keeping everything shutdown for another month when their infection graphs are looking pretty flat already? What are they trying to achieve, 0 infection rate? That is not going to happen even if they remain on shutdown for months. BTW, Orange county was never shutdown completely - essential businesses, including manufacturing, were partially open throughout. We have been going out on walks or hikes 1-2 times/week with precautions staying well away from others on the trails.

Anyways, the ER was great, and the nice bump to the SP AH was also very welcome. My options will do well tomorrow. So now the the question to ponder - when to sell? Tomorrow or wait till next week? My original plan was to sell next week on Tuesday/Wednesday, since it takes a few days for MMM to digest the ER and SP to move up.

 

[SageBrush]

7 million deaths

Reference ?
Over what time period ?
For what population ?
Compared to what baseline ?

 

[dw4ngg]

Reference ?
Over what time period ?
For what population ?
Compared to what baseline ?

Don’t even bother w a guy that responds to a request for facts with a random # and no context. Obviously a troll.

 

[azaz]

Polling also said Hillary would win the election. I rest my case.

congrats you’ve shown you are either not a smart person or don’t know how polling works and what a margin of error is

 

[Rammstein]

Reference ?
Over what time period ?
For what population ?
Compared to what baseline ?

I’ve been celebrating Tesla earnings with drinks dude. I just fing googled it. Not going to reply anymore. If you think that a Great Depression is better than a methodical plan to open up the economy than I don’t know what else to say. A quick google search gave me 7 million deaths. I’m not going to write an essay. Those deaths are just from starvation. I’m sure a Great Depression would cause civil unrest, crime through the roof, and ****ing hell. If you think not opening up the economy is better than I don’t know what else to say.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Stop it. He always knew the downsides, but beggars couldn’t be choosers 10 years ago.

He can, however, do something about it now. Texas, apparently.

His Texas comments during the call seemed a bit equivocal. Earlier he had tweeted approval of Texas' reopening policy, so part of me thinks he was just poking at CA by talking about doing Battery Day from Texas because it would be open for business. He mentioned third week of May. When asked about next Giga announcement, he indicated that was further out - one to three months I believe he said.

@FrankSG interpreted this to mean there would be a battery-only Giga in Texas (announced on Battery Day) with Cybertruck Giga announced later somewhere else. I'm not so sure. I swore I read somewhere recently that Musk indicated there wouldn’t be any more stand-alone battery gigas - battery production would be collocated with vehicle production.

I'm more thinking that Battery Day will be from Fremont with combined Cybertruck/battery Giga announced June/July timeframe. I’m still rooting for Texas, of course, but another factory is the important thing.

 

[Krugerrand]

Plot twist: @Krugerrand is @Quesder ‘s parent.

It’s too bad I’m not because then he wouldn’t post here every other week asking if he should be selling now. I’d take away his Internet and lock him in the basement and tell him if he sells just one share before he’s 65 he’d be disowned.

 

[Drumheller]

All right. Now that that’s out of the way, let the Q2 handwringing begin. Go!

Demand issues, you say? Wow, didn't think you'd ever say that!

 

[SageBrush]

Those deaths are just from starvation.

Reference ?

I looked up your claim -- it is conspiracy theory garbage disseminated by the Russian propaganda outlet Pravda.

Here is peer reviewed science:
Life and death during the Great Depression

 

[Singuy]

Well, just have been reading the message board light up with the only focus being on a tiny aspect that I am sure will be on everyone's mind tomorrow. As a resident of Orange County, CA - I wholeheartedly agree with Elon. What I am seeing across is the board is a lack of plan on how we transition back to work. I am sure my post will get plenty of disagrees here.

Folks like me are comfortable in their homes with WFH policies, kids are home supposedly studying online - but what about the hundreds of small businesses who are going to go under? My hairdresser, the laundry guy, my housecleaning crew, the nail salon I go to every 3 weeks. The only business which did not seem to stop at all was the gardener, his crew of 2 comes to work every week.

The business I feel most sorry about is the lady who does my nails - she and her husband after years of saving while working at a nearby salon opened their own nail salon 6 months back. They were just establishing a good clientele working 9 am to 7pm every day 7 days/week and had to shutdown for last 6 weeks. How long can their business survive with no end to the shutdown in sight? It is hardworking people like these who I really feel sorry for!

There was a reason for the shutdown - to flatten the curve and avoid overwhelming the hospitals. Well, see the graphs below - I would say that the bay area counties have done this quite successfully. Now there needs to be a plan, just like Gov Newson laid out, to start transitioning to opening up the businesses. But the Bay Area counties seem to be in their own world - What is their justification for keeping everything shutdown for another month when their infection graphs are looking pretty flat already? What are they trying to achieve, 0 infection rate? That is not going to happen even if they remain on shutdown for months. BTW, Orange county was never shutdown completely - essential businesses, including manufacturing, were partially open throughout. We have been going out on walks or hikes 1-2 times/week with precautions staying well away from others on the trails.

Anyways, the ER was great, and the nice bump to the SP AH was also very welcome. My options will do well tomorrow. So now the the question to ponder - when to sell? Tomorrow or wait till next week? My original plan was to sell next week on Tuesday/Wednesday, since it takes a few days for MMM to digest the ER and SP to move up.

This shut down extension is pretty unreasonable. I have been staring at numbers coming from California and they have done a bang up job keeping cases and death down. When they announced the extension, I thought they were just going to keep the place shut till a vaccine or a cure.

Last time I checked, we are all TSLA investors. Maybe some of you guys are 100% to support a mission statement and could care less if your money caught on fire. For the rest of us, I get Elon was being hyperbolic with all the "fascist" statement, but I can't fault the guy fighting for his company, people's jobs, all his supply chain businesses, and us investors.

 

[FrankSG]

I swore I read somewhere recently that Musk indicated there wouldn’t be any more stand-alone battery gigas - battery production would be collocated with vehicle production.

That's a very good point I hadn't considered. Still it sounded to me like there will be another Giga announced on top of the one in Texas. But then I'm a little unsure why they'd do 2 in the USA, one for the east coast and one in Texas. Perhaps they expect Cybertruck demand to be so high that they want one on both coasts? Perhaps the semi is also going to be built in one of these new factories? And what will the rest of the space at Giga Nevada be used for then?

I have more questions than answers

Perhaps Giga Texas will be battery cells + battery storage.

 

[Beltsbear]

This has everything to do with Tesla. They can’t open their factory because some assholes in the Bay Area are not being reasonable. I for one am glad Elon is standing up to these self righteous pricks. He’s trying to influence public opinion to get the economy going again. This makes sense to me because a depression will cause way more deaths than covid19.

Way more deaths? We have box trucks being used as morgues. We know where the deaths are coming from.

 

[UCF3]

That's a very good point I hadn't considered. Still it sounded to me like there will be another Giga announced on top of the one in Texas. But then I'm a little unsure why they'd do 2 in the USA, one for the east coast and one in Texas. Perhaps they expect Cybertruck demand to be so high that they want one on both coasts? Perhaps the semi is also going to be built in one of these new factories? And what will the rest of the space at Giga Nevada be used for then?

I have more questions than answers

Perhaps Giga Texas will be battery cells + battery storage.

I was under the impression they’d want a second Giga in Asia before a fourth one in the US

 

[Rammstein]

Way more deaths? We have box trucks being used as morgues. We know where the deaths are coming from.

The population of the world was around 2 billion during the Great Depression so its more of a percentage of deaths. Do you honestly think a Great Depression would be better for the human race than a methodical plan to open up the economy?

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

If ya'll want to see Fremont open safely and securely with new social distancing protocols in place right away give me a hell yea!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon “the only dumbass to build an auto company in California! Let us open!!!”

no really Elon trapping the bears with that tweet this morning is legendary lol

FINRA-reported short volume was just 39.9% of their total volume today. That's the lowest value in over 6 weeks (Mar 6, 44 days ago).

I think Elon trapped more 'weak longs' than 'shortzes' with those tweets...

 

[feigen66]

I am tired of people using death as excuse. Elon never said opened up entirely but with caution and PPE.

Did we see massive death in Shanghai Giga? Stop fear mongering.