Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ocelot]

It looks like you are a high-functioning individual who "get's it".



Short-sighted and superficial people.............
..........who criticize him as if he is an emotional idiot who doesn't know exactly what he is doing.

i was going to post I was low functioning and do not get it. but decided to not respond, not post an article by his ex-wife and not sell half my shares. another investing mistake.

My take on Elon's comments yesterday, and they are coming from a place of fear. Today, that thought is reaffirmed.

 

[Krugerrand]

What do you consider near-term? Given the turbulence in the world, I wouldn't be surprised to see FCA make a modestly-sized crater, starting on May 5 when it announces earnings.

Near term in context of the topic - the credits - means while the credits are in play and could significantly affect TSLA. I’ll get to that specific condition in a moment.

It was originally a 2? year deal? We’re 2? quarters into the deal? So another year and a halfish? 6 quarters? left? If and until the OEM in question crashes and burns. So I consider the time frame from now until when the credits end to be medium term. So near term is before that. Yes, I’ll get to the specific condition in another moment.

Here’s the thing with timelines; they keep moving. We’re always talking about in the short term vs in the medium term vs in the long term. I’ve held the same shares for 8 years - I’ve already experienced the short term, the medium term and the long term.

In the long term TSLA shares will be worth a lot: 2012 $30ish/share vs 2020 $700ish/sh = we were right; WIN!

From today looking long term (let’s just use 8 years again - 2028) do we believe TSLA SP will be substantially higher than today? If yes, buy and hold is idiot proof.

I can get onboard with your speculation about what might happen to FCA but I’m not convinced what happens to their credits going forward has any significant significance to Tesla other than they can pay a few extra bills with them.

Now I get to the specific near term credit condition I promised:

The only possible advantage for TSLA I can see is if there’s enough money from those credits that can be applied in Q2 2020 that helps secure Tesla’s entry into the S&P. If there’s any near term (this quarter we’re in now) TSLA road to go down concerning those credits, that would be the road to take, imo. Otherwise, forgetaboutit. It’s a cherry, not the sundae.

 

[anthonyj]

Here's a totally ridiculous, crazy thought: what if it's the whole "the cure can't be worse than the disease" approach? Where he came to the realisation that playing ball with the authorities results in some of Tesla's suppliers going bust, which results in severe delays in resuming production even after the factory can reopen, which will sink the SP and hurt employees' stock options anyway? Damage the SP now intentionally to get everyone's attention? Also, it's not really insider trading, he didn't release any material info on the company, he just gave his opinion on the SP...

Now if you'll excuse me, I'll just go back to my corner and resume laughing hysterically.

THIS

TOP post 2020

 

[JRP3]

Just chill out people and remember that ~1 year ago the stock price was ~$200 and some thought the sky was falling. Tesla's always been a twofer--you get entertained as you get rich (if you hold long term and don't panic)...

A year ago I didn't think the CEO was a raving lunatic. Now I'm less sure.

 

[Artful Dodger]

-11.07% down now... short selling "Uptick Rule" curcuit breaker should be in effect now. Let's see if the SEC gives a rip about investors, or only shortzes.

Short selling restriction will be in effect on Monday too. Let's watch the FINRA short volume report today at 3:30pm ET to see how much abuse MMs can heap upon genuine shareholders WITHOUT the SEC doing its job.

Oh, BTW, all you "investors" losing your *sugar*, where will you be in 5 years? Shortzes, lol.

 

[EVNow]

Wondering whether its our old friend - Musk Tweet that caused the downfall. He is surely tweeting / talking like further extension to stay-at-home order is going to damage Tesla. Zach downplayed liquidity issues - I guess its just Musk's frustration showing.

Ok - so, we are officially in 420 tweet territory.

Insane tweeting will only hurt the SP - not scare the virus.

 

[phantasms]

I dont think tesla is getting their credit rating upgraded afterall

Elon's too moody right now.





...terrible I know.

 

[Boomer19]

The tweet immediately proceeding it was about liquidating all of his assets. That sounds like there was some discussion about consequences of this before he did it.

so is he taunting them to come after him?

go ahead, come after me..i own nothing

if so, that’s a little over the top

 

[Zero CO2]

Stonk Price was a bit overvalued adjusted my valuation model to reflect 28% GM and Fremont shutdown till end of May 2020 my
new 2021 Price target is now $700-$750 ... there Elon fixed it for us longs ... SP under $700 today... discounts started .. I though I was going to have to wait till Q2 deliveries to see SP discounts .. still holding out for $500

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's fine. Don't screw over the rest of us just because his ego is hurt on social media.

If you think this is about his ego, you need to check YOUR ego. Perhaps I may suggest a nice ETF you'd be more comfortable with? I hear they're saving the world.

 

[gtrplyr1]

His job is NOT to deal with shorts. Anyone who thinks he should be spending his time trying to "set up" shorts to go bankrupt is insane. He has accomplished the impossible over the last 15 years with Tesla and sitting in an office trying to figure out how to burn shorts is ridiculous. NO, the truth is he has severe personality issues that make him behave like a 7 year old quite often, genius that he is.

What he does not get is the amount of harm he is doing to loyal shareholders .... for no good reason other than his inability to deal with life's situations.

There is no defending this ... it did not need to happen and Tesla the company and stock were sitting in the sweet spot .... their competition will feel a far greater impact than Tesla with the current conditions.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. I fear this is going to get much uglier in the next few days ... Elon must be removed at CEO ... there is no question about it. What his role in Tesla is going forward is also now in jeopardy ... yes he got the company here but at this point it's much greater than one person. It can be run by a host of people and we are about to see this .... it will suck short term but eventually it will be fine ....

This is painful.

 

[PeterJA]

Clearly Elon is shaking out the weak longs and gamblers, allowing smart longs to buy more at a discount. Whether this is intentional or not, I can't know.

Smart longs have lost nothing, because they weren't planning to sell for years and have not sold in panic.

Smart longs remember Elon said exactly the same thing before (several times), and the stock is much higher since then due to company excellence.

Smart longs stop and think before posting dozens of outraged shrieks based on panic.

Now I know who is who in this forum.

 

[elasalle]

Chill guys .. EM doesn't care about money

Musk was pretty close to nailing every goal needed to unlock the first tier of a very aggressive pay package. To earn the first tranche, Tesla needs to reach a $100 billion value and then hold that value for a one-month and six-month-long average.

cheers!! /s

 

[Nocturnal]

Cut off a big chunk of my core shares to reduce my Elon risk. I was a little skeptical of the broader economy and Tesla's Q2 and onward but this is enough to move me. I can take an eccentric CEO, I can take market ups and downs with stride. I absolutely have less faith in Elon than I did 2 days ago.

Chill guys .. EM doesn't care about money

Musk was pretty close to nailing every goal needed to unlock the first tier of a very aggressive pay package. To earn the first tranche, Tesla needs to reach a $100 billion value and then hold that value for a one-month and six-month-long average.

cheers!!

Those of us who aren't billionaires and who are invested in Tesla DO care about money though. He just cost me nearly 100k.​

 

[H Mak]

He's still at it.

"Rage, rage against the dying of the light of consciousness"

 

[Pras]

could it be that Elon is thinking of converting the options he will be receiving soon.

 

[Boomer19]

-11.07% down now... short selling "Uptick Rule" curcuit breaker should be in effect now. Let's see if the SEC gives a rip about investors, or only shortzes.

Short selling restriction will be in effect on Monday too. Let's watch the FINRA short volume report today at 3:30pm ET to see how much abuse MMs can heap upon genuine shareholders WITHOUT the SEC doing its job.

Oh, BTW, all you "investors" losing your *sugar*, where will you be in 5 years? Shortzes, lol.

the uptick wasn’t triggered yet

 

[juanmedina]

Elon sounded too emotional in the earning call. Oh well we will be fine but this is no fun.

 

[Christine69420]

S&P -2.33%
NASDAQ -2.64%
DOW -1.98%

TSLA down it's usual multiple on steroids.

S&P -2.88%
NASDAQ -3.28%
DOW -2.40%

 

[Singuy]

Here's a totally ridiculous, crazy thought: what if it's the whole "the cure can't be worse than the disease" approach? Where he came to the realisation that playing ball with the authorities results in some of Tesla's suppliers going bust, which results in severe delays in resuming production even after the factory can reopen, which will sink the SP and hurt employees' stock options anyway? Damage the SP now intentionally to get everyone's attention? Also, it's not really insider trading, he didn't release any material info on the company, he just gave his opinion on the SP...

Now if you'll excuse me, I'll just go back to my corner and resume laughing hysterically.

Isn't the ceo's option on how much his company is worth material information?