Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[feigen66]

Tesla tells furloughed workers to expect a week or more of unemployment

Anyone read the letter to employees? It says to expect to be furloughed atleast another week but they need to read over safety points for when they return.

atleast it’s a week by week thing now and not just next month

IMO, Elon's red hat tweet totally changed the perception of employee's return. It made it as an "America" thing to return.

Let's entertain ourselves with two scenarios:

• Elon delivered polite statement that pledged safety of employee to open Fremont factory.
  • We already knew this strategy would invite skepticism from the MSMs.
  • Did he get support from the left, including climate activists? No. Heck, Elon got attack by Robert Reich, who is a strong Bernie supporter, that he endangered employee safety to make "non-essential" car. If Bernie supporters truly understand the magnitude of climate change, he should deem anything that reduces the threat of climate change as "essential".
  • Elon would not get support from the right either.
  • Conclusion: Tesla would be left alone to die.
• Elon acted recklessly and claimed it is an America thing of pursuit freedom.
  • He attracted people from the right and libertarian.
  • Space X Demo-2 is coming and NASA is giving free promotion of Space X.
  • Space Force is landmark signature from Trump.
  • He aliened some people from the left, including some people who were never serious about climate change anyway.
  • Conclusion: Tesla might open sooner?

 

[Singuy]

Read that the lock up periods for some Tesla's employee stock bonus expires this Monday. Generally speaking I expect more of them selling than normal, especially the furloughed ones. Could that be one of the reasons for today?

The amount of shares being sold by employees will be gobbled up in the first 10 seconds of trading. Retail investors has zero impact on this stock with this much volume.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon's twitter followers just ticked up to 33.5M (from 33.4)
People not abandoning en masse. That has to be good right?

Yep. And this too:

Joe Rogan Experience #1169 - Elon Musk
33,348,703 views​

And Smoke'm Joe only has 8.19M subscribers to his entire Youtube channel.

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

My experience with women digging in the dirt is it makes them more frisky. In a good way.

Hey, what’s wrong with my browser? I cant see your image, only

 

[CaliBear1]

Ok, I'm dating myself and this post will only make sense to those familiar with this Irwin Allen disaster epic from the Seventies. This feels like watching The Poseidon Adventure! I have 970 posts to go and members are blithely debating the finer points of Elon's lock down "rant" as the real Elon Twitter tsunami approaches!

One thing I can be sure of as I keep reading. After the good ship TMC capsizes, I'm pretty sure Krugerrand will be the Gene Hackman character who brings calm and reason and guides those smart enough to follow him to the surface!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Robinhood appears to be buying the dip. Makes me think the drop to $700 is mostly shorts piling on and a few weak-longs who are making a lot of noise.

View attachment 537936

Although a lot of things could happen in the short term, I'd guess more-likely-than-not we'll see a quick and intense recovery.

$1,000+ end of May if Newsom announces next week that Fremont can reopen?

Evidently, Newsom doesn’t have that authority.

 

[SageBrush]

I cannot help but be amused by the analysts. They underestimated TSLA for years, and when they finally jump on the bandwagon TSLA drops like a rock.

In a way I appreciate the consistency. I can rely on them to always be wrong.

 

[dw4ngg]

Ok, I'm dating myself and this post will only make sense to those familiar with this Irwin Allen disaster epic from the Seventies. This feels like watching The Poseidon Adventure! I have 970 posts to go and members are blithely debating the finer points of Elon's lock down "rant" as the real Elon Twitter tsunami approaches!

One thing I can be sure of as I keep reading. After the good ship TMC capsizes, I'm pretty sure Krugerrand will be the Gene Hackman character who brings calm and reason and guides those smart enough to follow him to the surface! View attachment 537971

I’ll date myself now, but I didn’t even realize the version I’m familiar with was a remake!

 

[Steve m]

Except: THE BAY AREA DOESN'T CARE.

The state gave the counties authority and the state can tale the county authority away.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon gonna dump on Monday and quit. Source:

Rob Schmied on Twitter

open in private browser if you’re blocked

Yeah, there's a problem with their graph of TSLA Mkt Cap: Tesla issued 3 million shares in a Cap Raise in February.

Can you see the 'step-up' discontinuity in the Mkt Cap curve at any point in Feb? No? That's because they didn't add in the new shares. Even at todays price around $700/share, that's an extra $2.1B in Market Cap.

Then brilliant boyz theory neglects that Elon can't sell any vested shares for 5 years AFTER they vest, except enough required to pay income taxes on the share grant.

Those boyz amateurz

 

[anthonyj]

Yeah, there's a problem with their graph of TSLA Mkt Cap: Tesla issued 3 million shares in a Cap Raise in February.

View attachment 537972


Can you see the 'step-up' discontinuity in the Mkt Cap curve at any point in Feb? No? That's because they didn't add in the new shares. Even at todays price around $700/share, that's an extra $2.1B in Market Cap.

Then brilliant boyz theory neglects that Elon can't sell any vested shares for 5 years AFTER they vest, except enough required to pay income taxes on the share grant.

Those boyz amateurz

Nah, he's saying that Elon will dump all of his 30+ million shares at open Monday. Elon doesn't care about his little bonus, he wants to get out of Tesla before they file for bankruptcy later in May

 

[Green Pete]

I *think* he was talking about selling his houses.... possibly indicating he is moving out of California.

The tweets are terrible. As smart as he is in some areas, he's a slow learner regarding staying off of twitter when he's emotional.

Not bashing you here because your guess is as good as any. But can someone tell me why nobody has suggested that the man famous for taking all the millions he got from PayPal and risking it all on Tesla SpaceX and SolarCity saying he's selling all his assets for Mars and Earth when he clearly stated the day before that many companies that aren't Tesla are under risk is potentially going to personally invest in Teslas suppliers?

The man has a strong track record of putting his personal net worth on the line to do what he believes on, emphatically stated companies are hurting other than Tesla and just claimed to cash out his personal assets. The man is making derisking Tesla's supply chain with his own damn money.

Ironically I think it'll make him richer in the end, but I don't think that's why he is doing it.

The tweet is a hat tip to his suppliers so then don't feel bent over the kitchen table when he makes the offer to bail them out.

 

[dw4ngg]

Nah, he's saying that Elon will dump all of his 30+ million shares at open Monday. Elon doesn't care about his little bonus, he wants to get out of Tesla before they file for bankruptcy later in May

Sigh lmao. And smh. But definitely a smart plan if you ask me.

1) tweet to lower SP
2) sell stocks at reduced SP to avoid suspicion
3) escape America

Elon will never cease to amaze me playing his 4D chess

 

[Highway2Heel]

Sorry for the TA but it seems like this pullback was inevitable before making all-time highs in the $1000+ range. After this past conference call, everything seems as firm as ever...production may be constrained for the time being for Fremont but the ramifications for Tesla rivals and their suppliers are far graver than for Tesla and their suppliers.

What’s the joke....a bear charges two hikers from a considerable distance....knowing it’s inevitable that the bear catches them, one hiker looks over and sees his partner taking time to take off his hiking boots and put on running shoes.

“You know that isn’t going to help. The bear’s still gonna catch us.”, says the one hiker (GM, F, et al)

To which the other hiker (TSLA) replies, “Doesn't matter. I don’t have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun YOU.”

HODL

 

[Prunesquallor]

The man has a strong track record of putting his personal net worth on the line to do what he believes on, emphatically stated companies are hurting other than Tesla and just claimed to cash out his personal assets. The man is making derisking Tesla's supply chain with his own damn money.

I was just about to post something to this effect. What if Musk sold his real estate to have some fast free cash available to help bail out needy suppliers (and maybe employees) out of his own pocket? Wouldn’t that make Bay Area politicians (and a fair number of posters today) feel about two inches tall?

 

[Tim S]

I was entertained for free. Laughing is good for the mind, body and soul. I also learned a number of things about several people for free, which I find valuable. There were no innocent bystander casualties like an employer or spouse due to negligence or dereliction of duties; I fed the cat on time.

Tim, I just wanted you to know that your reality isn’t everyone else’s. And I apologize for choosing you to make the point, but I figured you’d be a good sport about it. I hope I’ve judged your character well.

When you paint with a broad brush like long term investors were hurt today by his tweet, it’s simply not accurate. Some people may feel emotionally hurt, or monetarily hurt because they panicked and sold, absolutely. But then there will be some people like me who are just too pragmatic to view it as anything more than Elon’s having a bad day, would somebody please hand him a beer.

I would completely agree that many short term investors, day traders, gamblers, option players etc... MAY have been monetarily hurt by the timing of the tweet today, but by the very nature of their chosen strategy; they made the bed, they get to lay in it. Too bad, so sad. Not.

Peace.

I have no problem with you, Krugerrand. I am also a long term investor. I have not sold any shares today.

However, I have found that the SP is frequently mispriced due to the constant FUD. I try to add "trading shares" or calls to take advantage of that. I did that at the open this morning because the SP was down over $100 for no good reason from Wednesday night after a great Q1 earnings report.

Those calls were profitable briefly before Elon's tweet instantly made them worthless. Now maybe you can understand why some of us are angry.

And I still say he does not believe the "stock price is too high". He should have added "If Fremont stays shut down for months", if that's what he meant.

Anyway, I bought a LEAP just before the close after the governor's encouraging remarks. I think we can all agree we hope Fremont can open safely within a few weeks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe this is a stupid thought/question. I think Elon tweeted the stock was too high to prove that he doesn't care about the value of his shares and isn't trying to reopen Fremont because he cares more about money than people. But, could he have also done it in an attempt to drive the SP low enough on purpose so that he no longer gets the stock compensation, and would that impact Tesla financials in Q2? (Bear trap)?

I have no idea what I'm talking about and throwing it out there for others to ponder. (Where is Fact Checking when you need him!)

Highly unlikely. Elon either crossed the finish line today or will coast across on Monday The reason is, on Monday we add it's Closing SP to the 6-mth rolling avg, while dropping 1 day's SP from 6 mths ago (124 trading days)

On Nov 5, 2019 TSLA Closed at $319.62

This upward climb raises the 6-mth rolling avg about $2.62 per day (with 184.39 Million shares) so the 6-mth avg Mkt Cap goes up about $483 M per day.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yep. He already flies around a lot. I figure he may as well be in the Austin area where the Autopilot team is, the Texafactory under construction, and Space X (test facilty to the north, launch facility to the south)

laid it all out here
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Green Pete]

I was just about to post something to this effect. What if Musk sold his real estate to have some fast free cash available to help bail out needy suppliers (and maybe employees) out of his own pocket? Wouldn’t that make Bay Area politicians (and a fair number of posters today) feel about two inches tall?

There is little doubt Elon killed some of my calls today. But options don't make me an investor and I'm gambling my own stupid *sugar*. But that's why when I made money on calls I bought a ton of shares. Tesla is going to the moon and Mars. I jest but there is no question in mymind musk will put Tesla on the moon and Mars

 

[feigen66]

I was just about to post something to this effect. What if Musk sold his real estate to have some fast free cash available to help bail out needy suppliers (and maybe employees) out of his own pocket? Wouldn’t that make Bay Area politicians (and a fair number of posters today) feel about two inches tall?

I recently lost respect quite a few people in the Bay Area due to COVID.
My wife has been contracted by one of the FAAN companies that promoted COVID public health while supporting local economy.

Truth being told, it's a sweat shop. They asked my wife's team translate WHO (& CDC & local county) COVID guideline in 20 different languages without *pay* over the weekend, because -- well, it's COVID so all the vendors should donate our time for the public good. While these companies could plaster their names on these documents for PR show. My wife fought tooth and nail with them because these translators were not well paid (a few cents per word, depends on which language) while struggling to support their families (a lot of them reduce to single income).

Really disgust me.

Elon may be childish, I don't think other people in Bay Area high society is any better. They may be speak sane language on tweet, but action speaks the otherwise.