Why would anyone listen to Jonas? Has he updated his price targets? Maybe bear case $1, bull case $10,000 per share?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
MartinAustin
Active Member
I like the theory that he is amassing followers among the truck-driving rebel public. And in a few weeks, when he is still fresh on their minds, he does the battery day from Texas.Elon's twitter followers just ticked up to 33.5M(from 33.4)
People not abandoning en masse. That has to be good right?
AND is all in with electric vehicles.
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As much as I like and respect Curt, he hasn't been the most stalwart of bulls here in 2020. I could be wrong, but I think this is twice now he's exited his TSLA position.
Thinking about gifting him a share just to keep him around.
feigen66
Member
And Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Germany, etc.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Yep. He already flies around a lot. I figure he may as well be in the Austin area where the Autopilot team is, the Texafactory under construction, and Space X (test facilty to the north, launch facility to the south)
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
We do need to be fair to people with different investing timelines to ourselves. For people in or near retirement, it's okay to be more cautious with your money.
Fiscal Policy
- Fed has dialed down the rate at which it's buying securities in the markets. This means the fed is feeling better about the market working correctly.
- Fiscal policies are leaning towards loans that have to be repaid rather than grants.
- If business does not return to normal quickly after economies reopen, she is confident a payroll tax will be implemented.
- Incomes down 2%, and spending down 7.5%, and saving rate up 13%. These rates are not annualized. Savings rate could top 20%, which would be record breaking. She believes this is a large cushion that can absorb economic shocks.
- Consumer confidence was high pre-COVID, but business confidence was low. As a result business had been liquidating inventories, and thus inventories are still quite low as of right now. One of the reasons why recessions can last long are out of control inventories, but this won't apply to the COVID recession. If the consumer reappears (ARK already sees signs of this happening), these low inventories could lead to a V-shaped recovery.
- Residential construction was up 21% in Q1, on an annualized rate. She thinks the housing strength before COVID will continue after. They're already seeing good signs from Zillow.
- Facebook's ad revenue stabilized YoY in April. Businesses willing to advertise (discretionary spending) shows confidence in the future.
- Airline travel dropped 95% at the bottom to 95k passengers per day. We're currently back up to 125k per day.
- Used car prices are falling apart, in part due to Hertz and Avis selling used cars into the market at fire sales prices, because they are at risk of bankruptcy in the near term. These low used car prices are competition for new cars.
- Global car sales were down 25% YoY in Q1, except for Tesla who was up 41%. They are supply constrained.
- Auto OEMs are throttling back EV investments, except for German OEMs. German PM Merkel will meet with German OEMs next week.
- Daimler, during their ER this week, said China auto sales were down 94% in the 1st week of February, but are currently (3 months later) up ~12% YoY as of last week. She thinks there could be YoY increases in auto sales in the US in June. Sounds like she theorizes that drops in auto demand during lock downs is being pushed forward ~3 months based on China data.
- In China dealers especially have been buying cars showing confidence in demand from consumers returning. She believes people might not want to take public transportation, and demand for private cars could increase as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.
- She believes the market might be starting to wake up to the fact that this recovery might be more V-shaped than most economists are thinking.
- She believes there might be a further shift from Treasury bonds to higher risk bonds and/or equities as the market recovers further.
- The collateralized loan obligation market is under some stress. She thinks this is because the fed is not backing this high risk market.
- If rates are going to stay sub 2%, as Warren Buffet said bonds are going to effectively be at a 40-to-50 p/e ratio. This should support high valuations of equities across the market, especially long (5-10 years) term innovation based equities.
- In terms of value-stocks, the biggest threat to a value investor is the 'value-trap' where the company loses its business. She believes that in this cycle more than ever, investors have to be careful about value investments.
- Small caps are finally 'joining the party' as of this week.
- A 13% savings rate in march, and potentially 20% in April, that is all dry powder.
- Gaming might be the next social platform.
- Fortnite sponsored 2 concerts within the game during this crisis, attracting 10.7M and 12.3M users. If you count from Twitch, it'd even be 15M concurrent viewers, which isn't all that different from the 19M we saw during the average World Series game in 2019.
- Fortnite hosted a "party-royale". She thinks this could be a new "hang-out spot", that could become a platform for social engagements.
- She believes gaming could become much bigger than music and TV in terms of economics.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Krugerrand
Meow
I was entertained for free. Laughing is good for the mind, body and soul. I also learned a number of things about several people for free, which I find valuable. There were no innocent bystander casualties like an employer or spouse due to negligence or dereliction of duties; I fed the cat on time.
Tim, I just wanted you to know that your reality isn’t everyone else’s. And I apologize for choosing you to make the point, but I figured you’d be a good sport about it. I hope I’ve judged your character well.
When you paint with a broad brush like long term investors were hurt today by his tweet, it’s simply not accurate. Some people may feel emotionally hurt, or monetarily hurt because they panicked and sold, absolutely. But then there will be some people like me who are just too pragmatic to view it as anything more than Elon’s having a bad day, would somebody please hand him a beer.
I would completely agree that many short term investors, day traders, gamblers, option players etc... MAY have been monetarily hurt by the timing of the tweet today, but by the very nature of their chosen strategy; they made the bed, they get to lay in it. Too bad, so sad. Not.
Peace.
Krugerrand
Meow
Come on! That is some seriously funny stuff right there. Spit my taco halfway across the room.
You are 100% correct. I should've mentioned that. Curt is one of the OG's on this thread.
Except: THE BAY AREA DOESN'T CARE.
Captkerosene
Member
Buffett has commented that he wants shareholders to profit in an amount roughly equal to the increase in value of the business for the time that shareholder held the stock. To help accomplish that goal, he has pointed out that his stock has gotten ahead of itself at times and also that the shares are a good deal at other times. That is a trait to admire in a CEO when so many act like Sisyphus trying to roll a boulder (the share price) up a hill.
With TSLA up 300% in the last year and the short term challenges that lay ahead, maybe now was a good time to put the brakes on the stock a little.
Fine with me if traders exit the stock. They bring no long term value to this company (or our society). I'd prefer if markets were only open one day a year. If you think you can out-trade a supercomputer in the basement of Goldman Sachs then good luck to you.
One of the reasons I own shares is that I like Elon's honesty. So many CEOs in the world are conniving SOB's. It's nice to hear someone tell it like they see it. Elon is an entrepreneurial artist. Don't expect him to closely follow society's norms. He's who he is because he follows his own path. That's a good thing.
With TSLA up 300% in the last year and the short term challenges that lay ahead, maybe now was a good time to put the brakes on the stock a little.
Fine with me if traders exit the stock. They bring no long term value to this company (or our society). I'd prefer if markets were only open one day a year. If you think you can out-trade a supercomputer in the basement of Goldman Sachs then good luck to you.
One of the reasons I own shares is that I like Elon's honesty. So many CEOs in the world are conniving SOB's. It's nice to hear someone tell it like they see it. Elon is an entrepreneurial artist. Don't expect him to closely follow society's norms. He's who he is because he follows his own path. That's a good thing.
lol this is the funniest *sugar* I have ever read; not going to link the article but the author’s name rhymes with Jordan.
In our view, TSLA desperately needs money now; yet, at ~$700/shr, there’s limited demand from institutional investors for the type of raise ($4-$5bn) they need to do. So… Elon Musk needs to get the stock price down before he potentially trips debt (etc.) covenant levels on actual cash on hand, or has to issue a going concern alert.
In our view, TSLA desperately needs money now; yet, at ~$700/shr, there’s limited demand from institutional investors for the type of raise ($4-$5bn) they need to do. So… Elon Musk needs to get the stock price down before he potentially trips debt (etc.) covenant levels on actual cash on hand, or has to issue a going concern alert.
Tesla tells furloughed workers to expect a week or more of unemployment
Anyone read the letter to employees? It says to expect to be furloughed atleast another week but they need to read over safety points for when they return.
atleast it’s a week by week thing now and not just next month
Anyone read the letter to employees? It says to expect to be furloughed atleast another week but they need to read over safety points for when they return.
atleast it’s a week by week thing now and not just next month
Fremont floor plan could be restructured by emptying the contents and relocating them to a more business friendly state.
That’s actually a really good, well thought out response to today. The supply chain quote from Musk was disregarded in all the sound bites but is easily the most important.
The expectations have been lowered tremendously for Tesla for Q2, it won’t matter to some, but for the bigger long term investors it’s important to know when things are not going to be great and this one here is obvious. Nobody should get too caught up on the overall success of Q1.
long term story is intact. That’s the bottom line
Back from my trip to the re-opening drink-fest. I’m pretty loaded too.
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