Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dw4ngg]

I recently lost respect quite a few people in the Bay Area due to COVID.
My wife has been contracted by one of the FAAN companies that promoted COVID public health while supporting local economy.

Truth being told, it's a sweat shop. They asked my wife's team translate WHO (& CDC & local county) COVID guideline in 20 different languages without *pay* over the weekend, because -- well, it's COVID so all the vendors should donate our time for the public good. While these companies could plaster their names on these documents for PR show. My wife fought tooth and nail with them because these translators were not well paid (a few cents per word, depends on which language) while struggling to support their families (a lot of them reduce to single income).

Really disgust me.

Elon may be childish, I don't think other people in Bay Area high society is any better. They may be speak sane language on tweet, but action speaks the otherwise.

I’m telling you, San Francisco is going to end up District 1 when everything goes to sugar and Hunger Games. I don’t know how it’s going to happen and what will transpire between now and then to enable it, but it really seems inevitable.

edit: Sorry, OT

 

[feigen66]

I’m telling you, San Francisco is going to end up District 1 when everything goes to sugar and Hunger Games. I don’t know how it’s going to happen and what will transpire between now and then to enable it, but it really seems like the end result.

edit: Sorry, OT

It's already a hunger game now.
Plan could put tents for homeless in parks

Before COVID, the situation was bad enough that residents placed boulders to deter homeless
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...-sidewalk-keep-homeless-away-launched-battle/

 

[SMAlset]

The state gave the counties authority and the state can tale the county authority away.

Newsom said he wouldn’t overrule a more stringent set of restrictions. He was asked that during one of the briefings this week (think the question was brought up when they were discussing the beaches). Think he went on to say the officials in each area were better judges of their circumstances. So look to Alameda County for Tesla.

 

[dw4ngg]

It's already a hunger game now.
Plan could put tents for homeless in parks

Before COVID, the situation was bad enough that residents placed boulders to deter homeless
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...-sidewalk-keep-homeless-away-launched-battle/

F. Smh again. For such a sanctimonious group of ppl, you would think they’d be more caring of the homeless. (Last post on this topic - apologies to the mods)

 

[carterm2]

Its all about the aliens.

That's right. Aliens.

Pretend you just made a rocket company (18 years) and here come the neighbors in their shiney new antigravity spaceships.

You would be pissed too.

 

[Prunesquallor]

There is little doubt Elon killed some of my calls today. But options don't make me an investor and I'm gambling my own stupid *sugar*. But that's why when I made money on calls I bought a ton of shares. Tesla is going to the moon and Mars. I jest but there is no question in mymind musk will put Tesla on the moon and Mars

The more I think about it, the more I think you called it. Musk is going to either prop up or buy out his supply chain.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yep. He already flies around a lot. I figure he may as well be in the Austin area where the Autopilot team is, the Texafactory under construction, and Space X (test facilty to the north, launch facility to the south)

... and the place Kimbal gets those hats.

 

[Steve m]

Newsom said he wouldn’t overrule a more stringent set of restrictions. He was asked that during one of the briefings this week (think the question was brought up when they were discussing the beaches). Think he went on to say the officials in each area were better judges of their circumstances. So look to Alameda County for Tesla.

Newsom said he was going to close all the beaches today. Then back pedaled to only the beaches in Orange county and then back pedaled more to say that he wouldn't use state powers to enforce the closure.

Newsom told the Highway Patrol not to issue demonstration permits and today let un permitted demonstrations to happen.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm warming to the idea of Elon relocating to Texas, keep in mind my record on this kind of speculation is abysmal.

But the possible things that might be located nearby include:-

• New factory for Model Y and Cybertruck
• Possible factories for Megapack, Tesla Semi.
• Austin chip design
• Austin battery research...
• SpaceX (very important)

Other things they could add include:-

• Tesla HQ
• Software development
• New product development, including HVAC

As well a commute to New York, Nevada and California. is manageable.

From now on I would not be surprised if Elon spends a lot of time working on SpaceX projects, the main Tesla projects that seem interest him as much as SpaceX are IMO, Cybertruck and the new HVAC.

Jerome can manage Fremont...(and travel to Texas to help with the new factory)

I do think with a new baby, Grimes is going to want a nice house, but perhaps they rent initially while they make sure they like living in Texas.

I don't think Fremont will shrink or be relocated, but I would not be surprised if anything new and exciting, increasingly happens in Texas.
Software developers may be given the choice of Fremont or Texas, overtime Tesla can probably close some offices in California relocate to Texas and save money on rents.

Keep in mind I did think they might do an equity raise after Battery Day.,.,..

But there is a good chance Fremont is up and running before Battery Day and a equally strong chance that a motivated, happy, upbeat Elon turns up on Battery Day and announces the location of the new GF.

The Capital Raise will be after the short burn,.... I wish my predictions would come true.. because they sure seem like fun

 

[Green Pete]

For those risk takers and options traders here. The Jan 2021 leap calls are under a $1 for a strike of $690. If FC FSD arrives and Shanghai factory outputs good numbers by the end of next year I see no reason why the price can’t explode to at least 750 giving you a 60x return. The Tesla price is always somewhat of a mystery to me but a tripling in price with everything expected over the next year isn’t entirely unreasonable to me. Not a lot of risk for a lot of reward there.

Frankly I feel like if the right things happen there’s no reason it couldn’t explode far more than triple.

Not advice. Just an opinion.

Not bashing you here because your guess is as good as any. But can someone tell me why nobody has suggested that the man famous for taking all the millions he got from PayPal and risking it all on Tesla SpaceX and SolarCity saying he's selling all his assets for Mars and Earth when he clearly stated the day before that many companies that aren't Tesla are under risk is potentially going to personally invest in Teslas suppliers?

The man has a strong track record of putting his personal net worth on the line to do what he believes on, emphatically stated companies are hurting other than Tesla and just claimed to cash out his personal assets. The man is making derisking Tesla's supply chain with his own damn money.

Ironically I think it'll make him richer in the end, but I don't think that's why he is doing it.

The tweet is a hat tip to his suppliers so then don't feel bent over the kitchen table when he makes the offer to bail them out.

I'm a pretty sophmore investor. I don't know *sugar* about technicals. But a decade of manufacturing experience in china makes my feel pretty good that this second post in this post is as smart as the first.

Not investment advice but I ain't selling *sugar*

 

[SageBrush]

I spent some time reading Elon's twitter feed. His declaration that he intends to sell his home makes me queasy but I try to remind myself that Twitter is just about the best communication mode imaginable for ambiguity.

More interesting was that Elon posted his 'TSLA is too high' line in response to someone who posted 'Bitcoin is too low.' That sounds like classic Elon to me, jesting with the natives.

 

[Steve m]

How much is that piece of property in Fremont worth? Selling it might bring in enough to buy a modern factory elsewhere without the California headaches

 

[Green Pete]

How much is that piece of property in Fremont worth? Selling it might bring in enough to buy a modern factory elsewhere without the California headaches

Moving a factory isn't moving a house. The cost of moving the engineering and staff other office staff alone would be more than the cost of the factory.

Then there's the machines, and the cost of training a labor force.

Even if you somehow managed to finance their moves on the basis of cost of living being cheaper, people have kids who go to school, they have their own social lives. Moving a factory is akin to moving the population of a small town.

 

[wipster]

Fremont floor plan could be restructured by emptying the contents and relocating them to a more business friendly state.

As attractive as that may seem however, a major problem would be the relocation of the talented and dedicated employees of the Fremont plant. Most of them won't be willing or able to move to Texas, even if it is in the Austin area. Now a new facility in Texas specifically for growth, with perhaps a gradual transition may be doable, but an uproot? Not in the near future methinks.

 

[MC3OZ]

How much is that piece of property in Fremont worth? Selling it might bring in enough to buy a modern factory elsewhere without the California headaches

It takes a lot of time and money to setup a new factory...

What is more likely is Fremont reaches optimal output sometime this year and is then maintained and slowly enhanced.
All new factories and products unceasingly happen elsewhere, so it slowly becomes less important.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nah, he's saying that Elon will dump all of his 30+ million shares at open Monday. Elon doesn't care about his little bonus, he wants to get out of Tesla before they file for bankruptcy later in May

Okay. Understood. Tkx.

Cheers!

 

[EV forever]

Well, I am not even going to try catching up on the number of posts from today. Didn't have time all day - and now it is about a 100 pages.
On days like today, when some random tweets from Elon make my net worth drop by over 250K there is a fleeting thought that maybe, just maybe I am over invested in Tesla. Only lasts for a few seconds though, didn't sell anything of course, but didn't buy any thing either. Looks like all the options I bought on Tuesday will be a bust, but then I only risk money I am willing to lose on options. Also, the expiration dates are all May 15 and beyond, so who knows, if Fremont opens up even partially the SP could recover some by then.

Don't know if he is playing 3-D chess, or this is some elaborate plan, or he is just frustrated and venting. But one thing he had achieved is opened up the discussion on wether this shutdown if the right thing to continue. So, I will continue to HODL to my long term shares and hope that the options recover sufficiently by expiration.

Have a good weekend you all!

 

[Green Pete]

For those of you NOT butthurt and selfish, just a reminder feedingamerica.com could use your support.

 

[feigen66]

It takes a lot of time and money to setup a new factory...

What is more likely is Fremont reaches optimal output sometime this year and is then maintained and slowly enhanced.
All new factories and products unceasingly happen elsewhere, so it slowly becomes less important.

Building a factory takes at 1-2 years, given regulation approval is longer in US.

The Giga Berlin is already pre-approved due to pre-BMW plan. There is no such location in US right now unless Elon bought an existing plan from GM or Ford, which is unlikely. Those old plants were not as efficient.

 

[CyberDutchie]

As much as I like and respect Curt, he hasn't been the most stalwart of bulls here in 2020. I could be wrong, but I think this is twice now he's exited his TSLA position.

Thinking about gifting him a share just to keep him around.

Curt is close to retirement, if not already there. I don't blame him, at that point in life it's like do I want to lose another whole year waiting? 2020 already looking like a lost year in many respects...