Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Joshker]

I'm a pretty sophmore investor. I don't know *sugar* about technicals. But a decade of manufacturing experience in china makes my feel pretty good that this second post in this post is as smart as the first.

Not investment advice but I ain't selling *sugar*

Well Sir I took your advice on the 690 calls back in September and all I have to say is thank you... I would listen to whatever this man says! Thanks again @Green Pete

 

[Steve m]

Moving a factory isn't moving a house. The cost of moving the engineering and staff other office staff alone would be more than the cost of the factory.

Then there's the machines, and the cost of training a labor force.

Even if you somehow managed to finance their moves on the basis of cost of living being cheaper, people have kids who go to school, they have their own social lives. Moving a factory is akin to moving the population of a small town.

Earlier I talked about how entire disk drive manufacturing factory equipment was moved from out of silicon valley to south east asia. It ain't hard to move equipment and has been done many many times.

No need to move engineering. But if you were an engineer and planed to stay with Tesla and Tesla offered to pay you the same wages and move you to a place with much lower cost of housing and no state income tax.

People will move.

 

[woodisgood]

I'm a pretty sophmore investor. I don't know *sugar* about technicals. But a decade of manufacturing experience in china makes my feel pretty good that this second post in this post is as smart as the first.

Not investment advice but I ain't selling *sugar*

Jesus. I’d wager you’re correct - in fact I will. That is the most Elon reason for selling all his stuff. It makes sense and is more strategic than simply acting out to defend his character. It also would give Grimes an excellent reason to be upset with him, in a “Omg you’re really doing this” sort of way.

Still not sure how the jab at the stock price would fit in.

 

[Steve m]

In 2014 i sold my big Fremont Ca house and bought a house twice as nice in Washington State for half the price. No state income tax. Lower property tax. I ain't going back.

 

[Green Pete]

Earlier I talked about how entire disk drive manufacturing factory equipment was moved from out of silicon valley to south east asia. It ain't hard to move equipment and has been done many many times.

No need to move engineering. But if you were an engineer and planed to stay with Tesla and Tesla offered to pay you the same wages and move you to a place with much lower cost of housing and no state income tax.

People will move.

As a software engineer who checked out to Iowa to be with family and work remotely where the cost of living is 1/4 of what it is in the bay but I still engage with my bay area colleagues on a daily basis who could move at the drop of a hat, I disagree with your presumption that people paid less for harder work work would make the move.

 

[Steve m]

As a software engineer who checked out to Iowa to be with family and work remotely where the cost of living is 1/4 of what it is in the bay but I still engage with my bay area colleagues on a daily basis who could move at the drop of a hat, I disagree with your presumption that people paid less for harder work work would make the move.

Try reading what I wrote.

I said same pay as bay area with lower cost of living and no state income tax.

Sure some won't move. Let them stay others will jump at the chance.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ok, I'm dating myself and this post will only make sense to those familiar with this Irwin Allen disaster epic from the Seventies. This feels like watching The Poseidon Adventure! I have 970 posts to go and members are blithely debating the finer points of Elon's lock down "rant" as the real Elon Twitter tsunami approaches!

One thing I can be sure of as I keep reading. After the good ship TMC capsizes, I'm pretty sure Krugerrand will be the Gene Hackman character who brings calm and reason and guides those smart enough to follow him to the surface! View attachment 537971

I have seen this movie and every remake. I would do my very best to be Gene, but I’m pretty sure I run out of patience around deck 5 and drown a character or two. By the time you get done reading, I imagine you’ll have some choice candidates.

 

[Drumheller]

I was just about to post something to this effect. What if Musk sold his real estate to have some fast free cash available to help bail out needy suppliers (and maybe employees) out of his own pocket? Wouldn’t that make Bay Area politicians (and a fair number of posters today) feel about two inches tall?

Selling real estate is typically not a quick endeavor for raising cash. Multi million dollar homes usually take even longer. Maybe its different in California.

 

[Green Pete]

Try reading what I wrote.

I said same pay as bay area with lower cost of living and no state income tax.

Sure some won't move. Let them stay others will jump at the chance.

Sir, I can read. Both English and Chinese. Also I recently moved from Seattle to San Francisco so I'm aware of the work in Washington and retire in Oregon culture. Moving a large manufacturing company is no small feat. And don't get me wrong, if anyone would do it Elon is the man who could, but moving people is a no small task. So maybe I was wrong and instead of buying his supply chain Elon is going to pay to move his employees, but I'm still betting on the former.

 

[Steve m]

Selling real estate is typically not a quick endeavor for raising cash. Multi million dollar homes usually take even longer. Maybe its different in California.

Usually it is

 

[CyberDutchie]

As attractive as that may seem however, a major problem would be the relocation of the talented and dedicated employees of the Fremont plant. Most of them won't be willing or able to move to Texas, even if it is in the Austin area. Now a new facility in Texas specifically for growth, with perhaps a gradual transition may be doable, but an uproot? Not in the near future methinks.

Not willing to move??

 

[Green Pete]

Not willing to move??

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I don't know what fictional universe you live in but factory workers in freemont aren't looking to upsize their 2million dollar house for a larger 1million dollar house.

40% of Americans don’t have $400 in the bank for emergency expenses: Federal Reserve

Btw, four years ago I was part of that statistic.

 

[MC3OZ]

Selling real estate is typically not a quick endeavor for raising cash. Multi million dollar homes usually take even longer. Maybe its different in California.

There is a danger that we are all over reading and over reacting to Elon's tweets.

At the same time I agree if he is selling property there are only 3 possible explanations:-

1. Moving to a new location.
2. Believes property is over valued
3. Needs cash to invest in something..

My hunch is some combination of 1. and 3., or he isn't serious..

Keep in mind he could be intending further investments in Tesla or SpaceX

 

[Prunesquallor]

Jesus. I’d wager you’re correct - in fact I will. That is the most Elon reason for selling all his stuff. It makes sense and is more strategic than simply acting out to defend his character. It also would give Grimes an excellent reason to be upset with him, in a “Omg you’re really doing this” sort of way.

Still not sure how the jab at the stock price would fit in.

I’m on board, too. It’s possible he has been getting calls to the effect of "another 30 days will bankrupt us, you'd better find a different supplier." That could have prompted his comments during the ER about people losing their life savings and businesses.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I don't know what fictional universe you live in but factory workers in freemont aren't looking to upsize their 2million dollar house for a larger 1million dollar house.

40% of Americans don’t have $400 in the bank for emergency expenses: Federal Reserve

Btw, four years ago I was part of that statistic.

OK let's look at rent then. The point i'm making is the same: much bigger house for less money.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don't know what fictional universe you live in but factory workers in freemont aren't looking to upsize their 2million dollar house for a larger 1million dollar house.

40% of Americans don’t have $400 in the bank for emergency expenses: Federal Reserve

Btw, four years ago I was part of that statistic.

I believe the point is that there is a 7:1 discepency cost per square foot.

 

[Green Pete]

I’m on board, too. It’s possible he has been getting calls to the effect of "another 30 days will bankrupt us, you'd better find a different supplier." That could have prompted his comments during the ER about people losing their life savings and businesses.

Absofuckingluetly he's been getting these calls. And anyone who knows the history of Tesla will tell you that in the early days nobody would sell to Tesla because they thought Elon was a joke. These are bonds of blood. Suppliers who help you start a business are family. Especially for the first major american automotive company in a century. Supply chain is no joke. Managing those relationships is pivitol for a growing company and while I know Tesla had learned the hard way to always be able to compensate for a deliquent supplier nobody wants to deal with that *sugar*.

 

[Green Pete]

OK let's look at rent then. The point i'm making is the same: much bigger house for less money.

View attachment 537995 View attachment 537996

Find me a moving company that will get a family moved from California to Texas on 400 dollars. Then tell me if you would spend your life savings to move from California to Texas because you boss was fed up with the California state government.

 

[Green Pete]

I believe the point is that there is a 7:1 discepency cost per square foot.

Land in California is expensive and land in Texas is cheap.

If every american could work from home and live anywhere in the country and could afford to build their own house that would be a good argument...

 

[feigen66]

Absofuckingluetly he's been getting these calls. And anyone who knows the history of Tesla will tell you that in the early days nobody would sell to Tesla because they thought Elon was a joke. These are bonds of blood. Suppliers who help you start a business are family. Especially for the first major american automotive company in a century. Supply chain is no joke. Managing those relationships is pivitol for a growing company and while I know Tesla had learned the hard way to always be able to compensate for a deliquent supplier nobody wants to deal with that *sugar*.

Preparing a house to MLS takes 3-4 weeks.
From sales pending to closing without contingent takes 4 weeks. It can be even longer depends on which bank unless the buyer willing to buy it in 100% cash.

So we are looking into 2 months of time before Elon could get cash from the escrow.